Hot Take #1: Cade McNamara is Going to Improve A Lot Moving Forward

I have mixed feelings on the QB situation. For starters, I like Cade. You’re not being recruited by the teams that recruited him if you can’t play and if they didn’t see something. I think he’s got a quiet confidence, yet commanding presence that you want in a QB (with all due respect to Brandon Peters.) I think it’s more than fair to question his ceiling given his physical attributes, but at the same time I think physical attributes are often overrated when it comes to a QB because football IQ is such a key element to the position. And Cade seems to have football IQ.

JJ on the other hand clearly has the superior physical tools. The one thing we don’t and won’t know for sure until he plays regularly is his ability to read a defense and consistently make all of the throws (with all due respect to Joe Milton.) I know JJ was a much higher rated recruit than Milton and his HS track record suggests that he’ll be an accurate passer, but let’s not act like that’s 100% a given. Many 5 star QBs have faltered.

So here’s where I have mixed feelings:

- JJ being a running threat himself, especially when compared to Cade, should theoretically help the running game, right?

- JJ could also potentially help the passing game if he ends up being the more accurate passer and connects on more shots down the field. He undeniably  has the better arm, but whether he could execute the game plan as well as Cade is still a giant question

- Playing JJ before he’s ready could hurt his development and then we have a Mertz situation

- Although I think he’s all Michigan, not playing JJ could turn into a Justin Fields situation

- Michigan doesn’t have the pure talent to match up with Ohio State or a Bama/Georgia right now. How can you overcome that? Exceptional QB play. I like Cade, but I don’t think he has that ability. JJ may (highly unlikely, especially as a true freshman, but it’s still a possibility.) While we still have Aidan and Dax, this season may be our best shot between this year and next at making a dream run. Are we potentially giving that up?

These are the things I think of. Realistically, I don’t see any scenario where Cade loses his starting job while we win. I think a Cade led team could potentially go into Ohio State unbeaten. I think that’s this team’s ceiling as of right now. I don’t think we could beat Ohio State though because they’re offensive talent dwarfs ours. But could a JJ led team reach a ceiling high enough to do so? And is that slim potential worth it to shake things up?

I know it won’t happen and I apologize for this rambling of unacceptable length, but it’s 4am and I’m not tired yet.

One potential reason for not running Cade more to this point is to avoid getting your clear No. 1 injured early in the season (ala Shea) before youve given your zero experience/freshman time to get his feet wet. It also gives you a major tendency to break against a team like MSU. Harbaugh has shown in the past to be willing to run his QB (Shea) more and to break out new wrinkles throughout the season. 

If that is the case, then I can see them expanding the QB run game post bye given that JJ seems to be coming along relatively well. 

Great points.  Also, some of his incompletions were good plays because he didn't try to do too much in the red zone.  

It seems like the coaching staff is trying to get McCarthy meaningful game snaps.  Michigan needs two QBs ready to play.  If JJ was better than Cade overall he would be starting.  JJ will get there but he’s just a freshman.

Boom! Hot take!

Snazzy take.

But, supported.

Bravo.

Cade will win many games. I support him and suspect he will continue to improve.

Why does everyone call Cade "cyan"?  I missed the reference.  Is he teal?

I actually feel more optimistic about the QB position than I have in a long time.

We've all seen Cade's performance this year: he's been up and down, hitting some great deep and intermediate throws, but mostly keeping things short. He's missed a lot of open opportunities. But most of all, he's managed to avoid killer mistakes (Nebraska int excepted). But to me, the biggest thing with Cade is there's no reason to think this is as good as he'll ever be. There are many reasons to think he has room to improve, and if he does, that gives UM a really high floor for the next 3 years. They can win with this guy.

So with Cade being the guy now, there's obviously McCarthy waiting in the wings. It certainly seems inevitable that he'll be given his shot to be the guy. If he beats out Cade, that will be a very good sign. He's shown his electric arm already, and he's got decent athleticism. My guess is he's still adjusting to reading college defenses, and he would be mistake-prone if forced into action now.

The future is bright with these guys. The only question I have is, when McCarthy inevitably takes over for Cade, what does Cade do at that point? It's hard not to see him transferring for an opportunity to start somewhere. But if he decides to stay, there's a huge benefit to having two viable QBs on the depth chart. We've seen how quickly injuries can change things dramatically.

I agree Cade is the best QB right now.  If JJ would have lost us the game Saturday night everyone would be screaming for Cade - LOL.  This QB situation will solve itself when the time is right. 

It reminds me of the highlander movie - "there can only be one".  That will happen later.  

We've seen Cade make all the throws we want him to make (including the ones people are screaming about him missing in the Nebraska game).  His real problem seems to be consistency.  We know he can hit the deep ball, we know he can hit a WR on a crossing route in stride, we know he can hit short routes in the flat, we know he can hit bubble screens behind the line.  He just needs to do all of this more consistently.  Now, if he was a 5th year senior, I'd say he probably is what he is and won't improve in this area.  But he's a redshirt freshman.  I'm hoping for a nice Jake Rudock second half trajectory as Cade makes his way towards double digit career starts.

Overall I support Cade as well. But I do think he has a limited ceiling and even the things he's "good" at, have been just average compared to the great QBs around college football.

He has looked especially shaky in the past 2 games, but has found ways to make just enough plays.

My opinion is that JJ has more talent and a much higher ceiling, and his ability and willingness to run bring a new dynamic to the offense. He doesn't seem nearly as hesitant as Cade albeit in alot fewer snaps. I don't know if he's ready to start but I believe M limits themselves with Cade at the helm.

Another thing, say JJ never breaks into the starting lineup this year. What happens next? Is Cade the "undisputed" starter coming into next season, leaving a 5 star, more talented QB on the bench for a 2nd year? That doesn't happen in this age of college football. Somebody's gonna leave, most likely. 

I feel like it's inevitable that JJ gets (or atleast should get) the keys to the offense sooner or later.

IMO, Cade is a solid leader and game manager. The problem with Cade is that he isn't JJ. Not his fault, but it seems from my view that the coaching staff is developing JJ as quickly as possible without throwing him to the wolves. If I was forced to play a bet, I would think the NW game will see a heavy dose of JJ, then, if any of the remaining games are not going well, a switch would be made. Again, not a negative on Cade at all. He's just not JJ, and the goal is to win games.

His QBR is 27th in the country, which sounds about right. Michigan is a top ten team, so it would be nice if he was also a top ten QB. However, they are undefeated, and he has played well enough to lead Michigan to that record. He should be the starter. 
I assume JJ will take over next year or the following year after sharing more snaps next year. I actually like that as a trajectory. 

I don’t know that Cade will ever be the kind of guy who will single-handedly be able to put the team on his back and win games on his own, but what I really do enjoy so far is that he’s not going to lose you games. 

He’s making smart decisions, not turning the ball over, avoiding sacks, and when the occasional bad decision is made, he’s been able to brush it off and get right back up on the horse to do something positive for his team on the next drive. 

That’s a great option to have, considering where this team has otherwise been. 

Before I say anything else let me say this...I believe he's our best chance at this time to win games and should be the starter.  That said, although I do think he can improve, I don't think it will be significant.  Many times, once a guy is physically and mentally ready to play, unless it's a position that requires a lot of size to be added like DT or o-line, the guy is the guy.  The minute guys like Devin Bush, Jake Ryan, Mo Hurst, Jake Butt, Chase Winovich, Josh Uche, etc. got significant playing time, regardless of their age or experience, they were all highly effective.  On the other hand, there were guys like Rashan Gary, Derrick Green, DPJ, Aubrey Solomon, etc who were all highly recruited and we kept waiting for them to develop and they never did.  Some were productive and others were not, but none ever really significant changed from their first experience.  IMHO more often than not, guys are good because they are good, which is mostly God given.  They have the ability, whether that's mental, physical, or some combination.  But, they don't significantly change over their careers once they have the pre-requisite size and strength and knowledge of the scheme to play fast and not think. 

So, I think what we're getting from Cade by and large is what we'll get.  He is who he is, which isn't bad, but also probably isn't ever going to beat a team like OSU on his back the way a Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, or Justin Fields can.  He'll keep us in the game, won't make mistakes, and will make some plays, but he needs his o-line to keep the pocket clean, his WRs to make catches, and balance on offense to make the defense defend the run. 

I think a guy like McCarthy has the physical tools to be a guy that can beat elite teams.  But, we don't yet know if he has the other parts like the decision making, ability to read defenses, accuracy, etc.  He could turn into Joe Burrow or he could turn into Shane Morris.  But, his ceiling is higher.  But, being a true freshman he's probably not there mentally and physically yet.  By next year, I'd expect a real QB battle and think we'll find out who he really is and if he's who we hope he is, will displace Cade as the starter.

I don't think players continuing to improve as they play more and gain more experience is a hot take

Coupled with some of Cade's limitations as a passer is the fact that we are not sharp at the WR position at all. At times, Johnson, Wilson, and Baldwin have made plays (Sainristil had the nice catch last week too), but have been inconsistent. Johnson has struggled tracking down the ball, Wilson with exception of the Wisconsin game hasn't been a great route runner, Baldwin has gotten open but him and Mike have struggled catching contested-ish passes. 

I don't think any of that goes away with JJ at QB. The one thing that JJ has over Cade that is apparent and would see immediate impact is that he throws the ball with much more velocity than Cade. A couple of passes that are just tipped or missed because of Cade's arm strength are probably getting there with JJ. Will JJ see the field well? Is the full playbook open with him in there? We don't know. That is why for now, I think we should look for more improvement for the WRs (they've all had moments or whole games where they have looked good), and continue scheming to get TE's and Corum easy receptions in space. 

On paper we have a very difficult second half to the schedule (3 top 10 teams), but aside from OSU I don't see any team on our schedule with a definite talent advantage to ours. MSU's D has a lot of holes, and while they have several big play plalyers on O, their OL is suspect and Thorne has only faced one real defense and he struggled vs that (as did Walker). Overall I have not been blown away by Penn St, and Clifford's injury problems put that game possibly from a toss-up to a lean M.

I am fairly confident that we can be 11-0 with Cade as QB.

Hopefully he's going to be working a lot on the bye week with his timing on hitting the deep balls. You just can't consistently miss on those. There have been several lost opportunities for touchdowns on either underthrown balls or overthrown balls. It's one of the biggest differences between average quarterbacks to superstars.

I hope you’re right!

it looks like to me that only Roman has strong hands . I haven't seen much strength on 50-50 balls

Cade has all the qualities you want and need in a back up qb which isn't a bad thing.

The kid is a winner so far and that's all that matters.  Keep it rollin.

All has been looking EXCELLENT so far this year

There may be some truth to this, but I also think he's fortunate to date to have voided a big turnover.  A lot of passes have been off, but at least away from defenders.

At this point I don't think Johnson, Sainristil or Wilson are lacking anything because of where they played in HS.

Hot Take #1

So is this like a series?  Are. Are there going to be more of these?? 

Can we not just appreciate the undefeated QB we have until the coaching staff, who have seen more than *checks notes* 14 passes from JJ, believe it is his team? 

This is a lot of feelings with little empirical evidence.

We were never going to get through the entire season with Cade throwing about 10 times and relying on 300 plus yards of rushing. Statistically, Nebraska was our most balanced game. Corum and Haskins got back to their normal rushing stats, Cade threw for 250 yards albeit not the best statistically. I know it was ugly, but hopefully we can grow on this performance.

I think JJ is gonna be great.  But the team morale and leadership probably says you can't make the switch unless Cade really tanks.  This team is clearly playing for something together and that fine balance can be upset too easily.