maize-blue

June 23rd, 2019 at 10:28 PM ^

I get the Reese's candy bar... if you read that name, Reese's, that's an "apostrophe s" on the end of that name. That means the candy bar is his. I didn't know that. Next time you're eating a Reese's candy bar and a guy named Reese comes buy and says "let me have that", you better hand it over. "I'm sorry Reese, I didn't think I'd ever run into you. You're a fuckin' bully, man!"

-Mitch Hedberg

njvictor

June 23rd, 2019 at 9:50 PM ^

I'm noticing that most of the guys we're getting are higher ranked on 247 than other sites. I wonder if we're gonna see what also happened with the 2019 class where these players' composite rankings improve as it gets closer to signing day and Rivals/ESPN catch up

Gentleman Squirrels

June 23rd, 2019 at 9:54 PM ^

It's very likely that that happens. Rivals and ESPN don't make as much of an effort as 247 to go out and scout players. Braiden McGregor is invited to the Rivals 5 star challenge, so I fully expect them to update McGregor's ranking closer to what 247 has him ranked. These rankings should be more in line with each other by the end of the summer and even more so come signing day.

Jordan2323

June 23rd, 2019 at 9:57 PM ^

I dont get the 247 team rankings. Michigan is Number 13 with 14 commits at a 89.44 average. South Carolina is is Number 9 with 14 commits at a 89.40 average. Both have 6 four stars and 8 three stars. 

Gentleman Squirrels

June 23rd, 2019 at 10:10 PM ^

The team ranking is based on total number of points. You get more points for higher ranked recruits so there is a difference between low four stars vs high four stars. Basically South Carolina has higher variance in their commits which is bringing their average down. On the other hand, Michigan's recruits are in a more compact range (thereby giving us a higher average), but that also means we have a lower total number of points because we don't have a big time (5-star type) player.

Gentleman Squirrels

June 23rd, 2019 at 10:24 PM ^

Not necessarily. It's the whole accuracy vs precision idea.

Image result for Accuracy vs precision

If you take Accuracy as reaching a recruit ranking of 1.0, then South Carolina's class would be considered "Accurate but not precise" (Highest Ranking recruits: 0.98, 0.95, 0.93; Lowest Ranking recruit: 0.84, 0.84, 0.83).

On the other hand, Michigan's would be considered more along the lines of "Not accurate but precise" (Highest Ranking recruit: 0.96, 0.93, 0.91; Lowest Ranking recruit: 0.87, 0.86, 0.84).

In this scenario, it is possible to have a higher total number of points, even though the average is skewed down due to outlying data points.

jakerblue

June 24th, 2019 at 12:33 AM ^

Wouldn’t the totals be 1252.6 and 1251.6 if each team has 14 commits but respective averages of 89.44 and 89.4?

an average is just the total divided by the count

Thats all assuming an unweighted average, if they use some kind of weighting system than that changes it and that would answer the original question

 

Gentleman Squirrels

June 24th, 2019 at 1:06 AM ^

They do use a weighing system.

https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Season/2020-Football/Commits/Preview/

This link helps you add potential recruits and see how it impacts the class ranking. I added AJ Henning to the class as a test, and it decreased the value of all other recruits. I am not sure how they calculate each recruits value.

AZBlue

June 23rd, 2019 at 10:14 PM ^

I think they weight the highest recruits much heavier than mid range and down.

USC (ntUSC) has 5 players in the top 200 (including the number 35 overall)  paired with several unranked 3 stars.  M has 2 in the top 200 (and McGregor is only 85-ish in the composite) with a bunch of “3.5 star” players.

Much like the draft stats on 5 and 4 stars - they probably bank on a much higher hit-rate on the very top recruits than those toward the middle.  == Average star rate is a good indicator to compare classes with big variance in size but isn’t the end-all be-all for rankings.

Brian8603

June 23rd, 2019 at 10:05 PM ^

This was the most obvious commit of the weekend given the avalanche of Crystal Balls. But still good to see him go Blue before the close of the weekend.  Welcome to Michigan, Reece!

NotADuck

June 24th, 2019 at 1:00 AM ^

Other recruits that have received new Michigan crystal ball predictions: AJ Henning, Makari Paige, Blake Corum, Brenden Rice, and Eamonn Dennis.

There is an article written about Rice and how he wants to delay his decision so he might not be one of the commits but the rest of them seem more than plausible.