Football Recruiting Perspective for Stargazers
Thought this was interesting. While this year's class is somewhat lower-ranked than maybe we'd all like, it's fascinating to see that it has the highest percentage of 4* players than recent classes. Maybe the low rank is the result of a bigger disparity of the the haves and the have-nots? In other words, there are fewer schools bringing in the majority of the 4* and 5* star players...thus depressing Michigan's ranking.
I am not a stargazer. My sense is that if Michigan can bring in a top 10-15 class every year, it's enough to keep the team competitive...along with the coaching, development, culture, and portal.
2024: 5* - 0; 4* - 18; 3* - 9
2023: 5* - 0; 4* - 11; 3* - 14
2022: 5* - 1; 4* - 9; 3* - 12
2021: 5* - 1; 4* - 11; 3* - 10
December 22nd, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
There are more schools bringing in 5* due to NIL inducement bags. There's actually been a lot of flattening. At #15, we are about as close to #3 in ranking as they are to #1. That's well within the margin of error/difference between how the services see players and how our coaches see them. So for me, it's as good as if we had the #3 class.
In other words, our ranking has been leapfrogged by a handful of NIL bag-deliverers who won't get results that match their ranking.
Our class is very good, one of our best.
December 22nd, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
Without looking at the data, I hope you're right. One of the most challenging aspects of CFB recruiting the last couple decades has been the precipitous dropoff in talent after the top 2-4 classes each year. Making that decline from 1 to 10 to 25 more gradual (and more linear) will be better for the sport long-term.
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
I can see how a class like Texas A&M (think it was two years ago where they had like 8 five stars) can implode. That is a class comprised of kids chasing the bag, and once they have the bag, there is no motivation to play. It self destructs and it did just that.
The other side of the coin are programs like GA and Alabama. Where they have fantastic coaching, player development, and get the 5 star players. That is what scares me about playing Alabama. It is a safe bet to put your money on a team with a great coach, great player development, and better players. I think Bama has this advantage on Michigan...not a huge advantage mind you...but still an advantage.
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:42 PM ^
Yes, to this point, I think Seth expressed it well in that you can still maintain the positive culture, but repeating high end success will probably rely on being able to offer the bag to compete for certain guys. There are a number of those top level guys the Michigan staff clearly wanted and prioritized and this class would be better had they been able to induce them (match an offer dollar for dollar to close the deal, thinking Justin Scott and Marquise Lightfoot, and maybe one of the OSU corners).
It is possible to think two things at once:
1. I really like this recruiting class and think it will contribute to continued success.
2. I'd be bonkers happy if this class had a 5 star DT, Corner and Receiver in it!
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
Yeah I think it’s best to avoid flat out buying recruits. But when you’re recruiting someone (say Bryce Underwood for example) who clearly loves the school for the right reasons but is getting truckloads of cash thrown at them from other schools or it torn between two schools, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to throw a little cheddar their way.
December 22nd, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
I agree -- especially for QB. QB is where there needs to be some sort of baseline bag that M can offer, because it is such a critical position on the field. I think M can preserve its culture while bagging for that one position alone.
December 22nd, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
While I agree, the minute Mich does anything like this, the NCAA ajd B1G will hammer them stating this is "the worst case of cheating in the history of history."
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
The reason in my mind it is imperative we keep Harbaugh to sustain this level of success. Lets be honest any other coach and coaching or staff shake up is likely to lead into a decline in player development. If we have to go the route of finding a coach criteria number 1 has to be player development and criteria number 2 has to be keeping the culture we have built. Those are huge mountains to climb with top end personnel change in any organization.
December 22nd, 2023 at 4:20 PM ^
I think that can be assumed, but couldn't it also be true that the culture wasn't great because Jimbo was a bad coach? Not necessarily being an NIL thing? Let's pretend schools like Bama or Ohio St or Georgia had the audacity to pay players, their culture and coaching is strong enough to still win and keep a majority of the high end talent. Almost all the portal guys from those schools are for playing time.
I say that because I think it can be disingenuous to assume a players motivations. I got into it with Jeremy Birmingham years ago when he was working at 11W for "reporting" that a player I knew personally was making decisions based on what he perceived to be the wrong reasons.
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
People should also keep in mind that teams have different needs from year to year. If we addressed our most urgent positional needs, I would consider that a good recruiting year, regardless of how it compares with say, LSU's class.
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
Show me this graph. What coaches got the highest % of their top targets?
The school that fell back to 2nd or 3rd choice is going to have an uphill battle. If they went head to head with Bama, Georgia, and OSU but ended up taking someone with Mizzou, Kentucky, and Maryland as their other offers will that lead to long term success? We are very much an exception to the rule right now. We can beat OSU and the Big Tens ass but if we are hunting Bama and Georgia you have to compete in recruiting.
This year we have a fantastic roster but 2-3 years from now will we have enough to keep up? Time will tell but just list your last 10 champions to see how you need to recruit. You cant deny that list and how they recruit.
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:54 PM ^
That would be a fascinating graph. Probably impossible, because we often have no idea who has an "offer" and who has an OFFER (although that distinction might be disappearing with NIL effectively overriding scholarship limits), so figuring out who exactly was each school's top choice at a certain spot would be a major exercise in subjectivity and educated guesses. The politics involved in recruiting these guys is intense. I do feel like if "% of top targets" was a quantifiable metric, it would be probably the best measure of recruiting ability out there.
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:44 PM ^
I'll still gladly take some 5*. I know everyone loves the "stars don't matter" schtick, but 5 star players are needed. I'll take the Bryce Underwood's over the Cade McNamaras
December 22nd, 2023 at 4:39 PM ^
1-2 5* per year would be good to add to this signed roster. No one hits the top of the CFB echelon consistently without 5*s. The coaching is great, but they will churn over every few years. Getting a few 5* might smooth that over.
Just look at Clemson.
December 22nd, 2023 at 4:40 PM ^
particularly positions where its extremely difficult to develop pro talent like QB or CB for example
December 22nd, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
I noticed this as well. Michigan is tied with LSU for 6th most 4 and 5* players, but only 2 guys in the top-100. Just from a pure ranking standpoint, the class suffered from guys like Davis and Prieskorn going from borderline 5-stars to the 90-125 range.
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
Prieskorn was grossly dropped by the rankings because he doesn't have verified times and didn't go to camps. He's a top 100 player and better than the Penn state guy that 247 has as a 5 star. He's Colston Loveland 2.0 with a better start at blocking technique.
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
Glad to hear that. The little I saw of him, I had the same thoughts and given that its obvious Loveland should have been a top-100 guy, it was perplexing to me that he was dropping so far. When he committed I was excited because it felt like Harbaugh finally got the elite tight end (no disrespect to Loveland, but coming from Idaho there is always the question of whether the skillset will translate) after years of missing out.
December 22nd, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
That’s a lot of 4* that will beat OSU regularly and win a number of B1G titles
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
Thats awesome but the goal should ALWAYS be to win a national championship
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
Bullshit. The goal is: Beat. Ohio. State.
Anything after that is icing! Only ONE team can have a successful year if it’s NC or bust. It’s entertainment after all. So please just: Beat. Ohio. State.
(And every once in a while throw in a NC!)
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
You think Ohio State would've gave a shit that we beat them last year if they would've beat Georgia and won the national championship?
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
I'd claim the title if we beat the CFP champ in their house by 3 TDs and change, while losing to #2 in a 1 TD game at a neutral site
December 22nd, 2023 at 4:52 PM ^
Claiming a title and winning it are two different things.
December 22nd, 2023 at 8:21 PM ^
HAIL Yes they would!
December 23rd, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
It doesn't rankle you a bit that MSU won in 2021?
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
I like this comment because it expresses how I feel. A successful season is any season where Michigan is competitive. Top of the list of wants is beat them guys from Ohio. After that beat MSU and win the B1G. I am excited for the playoffs and want Michigan to win but playing well and loosing is acceptable.
December 22nd, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
Losing is never acceptable. I could not disagree more. I agree with most of what was said before the last line. If we make it, we might as well win it. And think of all the things the last 3 years have taken away from our rivals.
"You've never played in a B1G title game." Made and won the last 3. We now have the 2nd most wins all time in B1G title game history.
"You haven't won the B1G in 20 years." Won 3 straight, first team to ever win 3 straight outright.
"You've never made a playoff." Again, 3 straight.
If we win the whole thing, that kills the "you've never WON a playoff game," and the "half a natty since 1948" narratives. So yeah, not acceptable, and let's just get these two birds stoned at once as my man Ricky would say.
Just my two cents.
December 22nd, 2023 at 5:31 PM ^
I'll take the other side of the argument. Thankfully, I couldn't care less what our rivals say. They're rivals--they're always going to be spouting off about something. That's why I ignore them.
December 22nd, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
everyone loses from time to time. losing being unacceptable is a good way to go through life disappointed
December 22nd, 2023 at 8:03 PM ^
Goals are great. Everyone should have them.
And let's all agree that for most people reading this blog, Michigan winning the NC is one of our highest goals (or wishes is perhaps more accurate, as we have no control over it).
But to say the goal should ALWAYS be winning the NC is pretty far-fetched. The goal at Michigan should be & I believe is, to play to the team's potential, to mold young men into young leaders, and to beat the ohio state football team!
Those goals are the "Mission Statement" of Michigan football. Winning NCs are gravy, cherries, or whatever topping you might prefer.
December 22nd, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
I'm happy that we actually brought in one more 4* than OSU and PSU did (18-17). I imagine this doesn't usually happen. OSU did bring in five 5* which is clearly a difference. At this point, I think it is a given that Michigan is better at identifying high quality lower rated recruits and developing them into NFL quality players.
If we are recruiting at close to the same level, our competition is in trouble.
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
Looked it up, last few years the number of 4* and above, OSU has been closer to 2:1 compared to Michigan. Big change this year.
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
Till Ryan Day figures out how to run the ball and run his QB, he's gonna be stuck in the same cycle. Seven on seven drill program
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:52 PM ^
Fantastic take!
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
That’s the potential problem. We are not recruiting at close to the same level.
Would you say that finishing 2nd in the polls is “close to the same” as 16th?
I wouldn’t.
Recruiting is not that different.
Yes, we develop better. But it’s clear that with JJ leaving, Corum leaving and Edwards leaving our failures over the last 2 years at recruiting are going to hurt next year and possibly beyond.
Expecting Davis to step in and be 22/23 McCarthy is just not fair to the young man. Is there any QB in the portal we have a chance at still? If so I’m not seeing those stories.
I think we will be “competitive”, but 24//25 looks more like 15-19 than like 21-23.
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^
21-23 was built on 3 and 4 star recruits. It’s like people don’t pay attention at all to who is on the roster. Sainistril, ZZ, Keegan, Cade, Haskins, Schoonmaker, Mazi, Jenkins, Bell, Wilson, Johnson, Loveland, Moore, Aidan, Ojabo, Henning, Barrett, Green, Turner, etc.
After 2021 Michigan lost Dax Hill and replaced him with Rod Moore. 26-1 since.
Edwards didn’t play like a five star this year. Harsh, but true. JJ has been good. Very good at times. But not quite elite. This assumption that he is leaving is questionable.
You place far too much emphasis on a couple of guys and far too little on the rest of the team. That isn’t how football works.
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
It was certainly built on that, but we can't deny we've aided by 5* talent here and there. Dax, Will Johnson, JJ. If we could just get a few of those top top end guys at skill positions, we'd really be cooking. We've really missed having game changing guys like Nico Collins in the WR room in recent years.
December 22nd, 2023 at 6:52 PM ^
I think this is an insanely pessimistic take. The only concern I have in 2024 is QB barring ant surprises.
If JJ comes back, giddy up. If not, we only need to get Cade level production from Denegal, Davis Warren, Orgji, Davis, (insert potential portal candidate), or a combination thereof.
December 22nd, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
I've never been a huge fan of Stargazing even before the current landscape, but now it seems to be even more irrelevant. Who cares if your class is ranked 1st or 133rd? If the players you bring in help the team move forward in a positive direction, that's all that matters, right? The right teams will still recruit at a high level and support those recruiting efforts via the Portal. Like you said in Michigan's case, Harbaugh and crew have proven that their model of even a top 25 class mixed with the Portal and development is the most sustainable. I think what really helps this model too is finding guys who actually want to be at, and stay at, Michigan. Compare Michigan's current portal "exodus" of two RB's to the likes of Georgia and OSU.
December 22nd, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
UGA and OSU's seasons are basically over. I don't think we'll have their level of attrition, but it's not a fair comparison until we're done, hopefully holding up a trophy on January 8th.
December 22nd, 2023 at 5:28 PM ^
Correct.
Michigan is still playing for a National Championship and not too many guys are going to bolt at this point. As soon as that is no longer the case, I expect to see many more players from UM enter the portal (probably in the portal corridor after Spring practice).
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
It is amazing to me that people can still believe stars are irrelevant when there are mountains and mountains of evidence to suggest otherwise.
Stars matter. They're just not the only thing that matters but to date you either need multiple top 5 classes in a row or a generational QB to win a natty. Will revisit this if/when the portal changes that fact.
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
but to date you either need multiple top 5 classes in a row or a generational QB to win a natty
Not true. Ohio State won a natty in 2014 with a 68% blue chip ratio and JT Barrett at QB. FSU won it in 2013 with a 53% ratio and Jamies Winston. Clemson has also won it a couple of times with a ratio in the 50's, but with very good QBs. Not sure if I'd call Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson "generational" if they occur more than once a generation? Not really even sure what "generational" means other than "very good."
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:25 PM ^
3 of those 4 guys either won or finished runner up for Heisman so instead of "generational" maybe I should have said Heisman finalist QB.
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^
The "Heisman finalist" seems kinda arbitrary. Michigan might never get a Heisman finalist QB because it's just not our playstyle. A lot of finalists were there just because they were the QB of a very good team, and in retrospect, they weren't even good QBs, let alone generational talents.
QBs like Dwayne Haskins and Stetson Bennett being Heisman finalists are a product of their teams being good. Michigan has and will continue to recruit better QBs than that.
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
If the argument is "everything's arbitrary" than I dunno what to tell you. I'm talking about odds. And to me I like my odds a lot better with higher ranked players on average than without.
You win with stetson Bennet when you recruit 10 top 100 players a year. Or you win with guys like Watson and Lawrence who can elevate the entire team in their own.
December 22nd, 2023 at 4:00 PM ^
Here is the important part. Are our coaches getting their first choices at a high rate?
If Bama, Georgia, and OSU are getting 75% of their first choices and we are at 40% that is going to be a tough road eventually. I dont want recruiting services, OSU, or Bama's first choice I want our coaches first choice. Look at this years class. Are those all basically our top dogs at each position? If not how do we get a higher % of our coaches top targets.
That is the star gazing that is of the utmost importance. We cant settle for 2nd and 3rd choices up and down the class.
The Strawman argument
"We want moar sTaRz!"
The real argument
"We want our coaches top choices as often as OSU, Bama, and Georgia. At least in the same ballpark."
December 22nd, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
Heisman is arbitrary. A better descriptor and measuring stick would be "Heisman-caliber."
December 22nd, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
Of course, being a QB on a national title contender basically guarantees you a spot in the top 10 of the Heisman vote, if not a trip to New York.