Football Recruiting Perspective for Stargazers

Yea, if some fans don't have faith that the coaches know what players they need for their system by now, that's on those fans.  A 66% blue chip ratio is great, especially when those signees aren't chasing a bag and aren't going to jump ship a year from now in college free agency.

Good perspective and while I totally believe stars absolutely do matter on a macro level, it does seem like our class ranking this year is a little misleading for exactly the reason you point out.   In other words we have a very solid and deep class, but we are missing out on the top end prospects that are causing other classes to rank above us.   

Time will tell of course whether this approach is good enough to sustain our current level of success.  I'd obviously love to have more top 100 guys, but when you bring in 18 4-stars there are a lot of chances that some of those guys are going to perform like 5 stars on the field.  

My hope is that there are leaders in this bunch like Mike Sainristil, whose value to the team far exceeds his stars. (And if there's a 340-pounder who can run down a RB from behind, so much the better.)

The big change is the transfer portal.  It is more important for Michigan to remain the place you go to optimize your draft status.  How many players that started this year came through the portal?  Having a class of more senior/experienced players that were initially lower ranked but stuck around or transferred in will win.  Clearly player development, strength and conditioning and NFL type schemes are going to mean more than having higher ranked high schoolers.  The portal guys have proven themselves and their ability to get into Michigan by itself assures a certain type of person (smart and willing to work hard).

My issue with us not getting 5*s, is that the 5*s we have gotten recently, have all been very good players that play at a 5* level. I get that you can coach up lower ranked players but that takes more time and most dont have the genetic advantage that 5*s have. Our coaches do an amazing job of coaching up our players, imagine if they were doing it with the players Alabama and Georgia have. There is a reason those 2 teams have won multiple national championships in the last 10 years, it's because of talent

SN: we did an amazing job this recruiting year building the future trenches, we need to focus on WRs next year, I believe it's been our weak link for years and holds us back from being even more elite

Feelings! If Harbaugh does decide to go, I wonder what elite coach thinks to come here with the nil limitations we have self imposed. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but not paying through the teeth had worked for Jimmy, but I'm not sure others relish that challenge. 

It's a bit funny to be hugely obsessed with 5 stars. How many of them are there? Like 30? 4 stars are like what, top 300? 

Sure, on average, 5 stars will be "better" than 4 stars, but the margins must be thin. How can you, for sure, know that player #30 is better than player #50?

I think a class full of 4 stars is about as great as you can get for Michigan, and I suspect if we keep doing that, we will continue to kill it on the field.

With the exception of when Michigan lands a Peppers/Daxton Hill/Will Johnson type of recruit, I really don't pay any attention to recruiting anymore.  I meet our players when they come into the game.  I have found it to be more fun that way.

Latest roundtable discussion suggests to me the possibility of a general agreement on where stars matter and how much they matter.  I.e., for certain positions 3-stars and low 4-stars may possess sufficient athleticism to allow for work ethic, technique, and football smarts (processing/decision-making) to more than make up for a lack of 5-star measurables.  For others, a baseline level drive and football smarts combined with high 4-star and 5-star measurables will lead to football productivity that can't otherwise be matched.

We certainly don't need 6 5-stars in every class, but it would be awfully nice to see 1 or 2 of them in every cycle plus some high 4-stars at QB, WR, and DB.

i *am* a stargazer, not because i'm a stargazer, but because stars matter statistically. i would be lying if i said i wasn't worried about all the big numbers ohio state signed.

however, i have found myself wondering about the 24/7 class ranking algorithm. it seems to put a higher weight on a couple 5-stars than on 10 4-stars.

and i wonder if the algo needs to be adjusted for the NIL age, to consider how likely different players are to bail after a year or two. 

my take on this class is that it is a very good class. but also osu signed 5 5-stars while we did 0. 

harbaugh has been in front of the industry in some respects, on player comp and ncaa being bad, etc. 

it has me wondering if he's in front of another trend, which is that a big group of 4-year, well-coached high potential players who are all in on culture and team (ie 18 4-stars) might be better than a group of amazing 5-star mercenaries who transfer or don't pan out or go pro, etc. 

i can never help but think about rashan gary, who was a talented player, the #1 in his hs recruiting class, but never seemed to rise to his ranking at michigan, and wonder if that experience shaped harbaugh's perspective.

I think fans of college football and ergo Michigan fans just need to realize that recruiting rankings are useless-- they are merely a projection. 

We could pool all of our mothers together and get them to agree on the top 20 players after five minutes of coaching what to look for. Outside of those top 20 guys (and to be honest there's so many factors that could go wrong for those top 20), it's a crapshoot. 

I've seen recruiting boards for multiple teams and compared to Rivals/247 it's usually not close. Here's an example... back in 2019 Alfano was #1 recruit. 98% of schools didn't agree and knew there were some big issues there. I say that to say schools would still take that risk on talent, but Stingley and Nolan Smith were by far the best talents teams were after.

"recruiting rankings are useless"

Must just be a coincidence that the most talented teams by recruiting rankings keep winning national titles.....

This staff absolutely deserves the benefit of the doubt because their hit rate on guys has been really good recently. I'd only share the same concern of some others in QB, WR, and CB recruiting. That has been pretty mediocre lately and while we've hit on some, generally our best guys have been rated as such and we haven't hit on many (or any?) top 50 QB/WR/CB recruits in a while. That's going to hurt eventually

I do think we need the occasional 5 star to add in, like a Will Johnson or JJ McCarthy.  5 star players can definitely be culture fits, but that's also where the lack of our NIL game hurts.  You don't want guys who are solely coming for money, but you do want to make sure that the guys who do come are seeing a financial return commensurate to what's being offered elsewhere.

The one thing about our NIL setup is that I do think the guys on the roster are doing fairly well and the hope is that as we have more of a track record on that, we'll be able to point to it when talking to recruits to show that they'll be taken care of when they come to Michigan.

I think the two main reasons we've struggled with NIL are 1) that other school already had systems and boosters in place set up to pay players and it was fairly easy for them to port that over to NIL, and 2) there's alot of grey areas within the current rules and Michigan doesn't do well with that.  And obviously the fact that we don't want to pay up front for recruits.  

If they ever move away from NIL to more of a revenue sharing scenario, that's probably going to help Michigan tremendously as it'll be alot easier if we can just pay the players directly and there are clear rules for doing so.

Now with all that said, I do really like this recruiting class and who they are bringing in.  I do wish they would get another receiver (which Gatlin Bair would satisfy) and just more defensive backs in general (which it sounds like they plan on addressing in the 2025 class).  

The other part of the recruiting puzzle is the portal which we can use to fill the gaps that do arise.  And Michigan seems like they've gotten good at figuring in which guys they can get in via the portal and which they can't and focusing their pursuits accordingly.  Feels like some past Harbaugh teams (2017 and 2018 in particular), would have really been helped if we could have used the portal to help fill holes on the roster (the offensive line in 2017 and the defensive tackle and nickel position in 2018).

I like our 2024 recruiting class.  The problem is that there is no margin for error.  You have to hit at QB and some other major positions.  We hit on JJ, Edwards and Johnson and built great lines up through coaching and the weight room.  However,  if Davis isn't a hit we have a problem at QB going forward.  We really haven't landed a top quality transfer or a top rated QB since JJ.  Those really good Clemson teams recruiting classes never seemed that great in the rankings but they got Watson and Lawrence at QB.  If you land a great QB it really makes life easier.  QB is probably the hardest position to get talent if you don't want to play the NIL game the way others schools are playing it.

Michigan’s recruiting is what it is. They have developed a model that works for them as seen by the onfield success.

Is that good enough to beat Alabama? I don’t know. To be frank, Alabama is an unicorn. It’s a better program than Miami was between 1983 and 2002 because, unlike Miami, Bama hasn’t had down years. Just a a machine of consistent success unlike we have seen in six or seven decades.

Alabama is on a historic run that I don’t think will be equalled anytime soon.To use them as a measuring stick is perhaps unfair. Yes, the program  should strive for that, but we fans should perhaps be more realistic. JMO.

I am already ecstatic with this season. Whatever happens in the Rose Bowl won’t tarnish my view of this team or program. I do think they need to find a way to start winning postseason games.Jan. 1st is another opportunity.

It's definitely a good class, I don't think anyone can realistically be 'upset' with it.

That said, hopefully there's a JJ on the team somewhere. Having a highly-accurate, dynamic quarterback is what has put Michigan in the Top-4 teams in America category these past two years. With a Kyle McCord or Drew Allar level guy Michigan is probably stuck in that 10-2 or 11-1 range just a notch below competing for national championships.

Especially with adding the portal to top 10-15 class . We all good 

I think a heavy percentage of 4-stars is a great place to be. Sure we would like a five star or two to round out the class, but the 5 stars (now w NIL) are a different animal. Developing 4-stars who want to be here is the better road in my opinion. Kids taking the bags will probably be the CFB bicycles where everyone gets a ride. 

From the Athletic Signing Day roundup:

Michigan is THE OUTLIER:

What should we make of Michigan? The Wolverines have won the Big Ten and beaten Ohio State three years in a row, yet their class currently includes only two top-100 players, both of whom are outside of the top 75. If any program in the country has defied the recruiting results to achieve great things, it’s Michigan. I want to say it’s yet another underwhelming class when compared to what is happening on the field, but maybe it’s just time to say Jim Harbaugh and his staff are playing chess in evaluation, development and the transfer portal. Michigan legitimately may win the national title this year, which I thought was impossible — literally impossible — for a team that ranks No. 14 in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite.

About 1/3 of the top 100 players have been going to a group of 3 schools: Georgia, Alabama, OSU. About 1/2 of the top 100 players have been clustered in a group of 5-7 schools. It is going to be hard to be a contender regularly without getting these players.

I think the transfer portal makes a difference though. Michigan has retained and developed players and not had a lot of turnover while a school like Texas A&M had a lot of 5-stars enter and then transfer. College football has much more of an NFL model now with recruiting analogous to the Draft, and the transfer portal similar to free agency.

Recruit in the 4 star range for most of your talent.

Supplement that talent with disgruntled 4-5 star Fresh/Soph talent when it enters the portal.

Jadyn Davis is a 5 star talent. I don't care what anyone says. I think he's going to also be like JJ and have a chip on his shoulder after the way Ohio State did him as they did him dirty dirty.

I think he starts after his redshirt year if JJ returns and he could even start by mid season next year if JJ doesn't though I believe JJ will without a natty.

I mean let's not forget that Jadyn was the #1 overall player when he was committed to OSU He's expected to be an early enrollee which would allow him to start practicing so the buzz can begin.

I just saw a short clip on IG of an Ole Miss recruit pulling up to his LOI signing ceremony in a Lamborghini. #1 JUCO prospect Deion Smith.