Could M finish 2nd and still miss the NCAA?

No.  All the years of people panicking here thinking we will miss tournament, and then end up with at worst a 8 seed.   We will have a double digit seeding, but should make it.

Math gives zero fucks about our feels.  Yes, this is possible that we lose three more games, end up 2nd and miss the tourney with 13 losses

Given our schedule the rest of the way, if we finish 12-8 with four more wins in regular season, that would mean we got some more Quad 1 wins under our belt.  As long as we have a decent showing in the BIG tourney - I think 12-8 would be enough to get us in.

At this stage and given the schedule - IU, @Wis, Sparty, @Rut, Wis, @Ill, and @IU - I would take 4-3 to finish season at 12-8 as a very good outcome.

Yes its possible but it would probably only take one win in the BTT to get in at that point. If they finish 6-2 and finish 2nd at 13-7 they are probably in

Remember when we didn't have to worry about the bubble?

I feel like the magic number is 12 and two bigten tournament wins. That would get us to 20-14 overall. A lot depends on who we beat as well, other conference bubble teams could be equally important as to quad 1 wins. 

It's possible and in fact it is likely. I doubt M finishes in second given the remaining schedule but even if they do their metrics are quite bad and they have no notable out of conference wins. Pitt maybe solidly in the field but they are 52 in NET and on a neutral court, thus they are a quad 2 win. Michigan also has an anchor with the horrific CMU loss. Circling back to Big Ten play they have 8 wins, but 4 are over the 3 worst teams in the conference. 

EDIT: to clarify I am working the assumption 2nd place is a 13-7/12-8 type record. Obviously if Michigan wins out to finish second they are in

Will we make the field?

It depends on whether team Jekyll shows up more often than team Hyde through the rest of the season and in the B1G tourney.

I'm just glad we can speculate about it now. Nothing is in a vacuum- what other teams do makes a difference obviously but I agree with those who think that some combination of BT regular season and post season wins equaling 14 or more would likely get it done,

Yes, they absolutely could, depending on which of the remaining seven games they win.

The committee doesn't care about conference record, both good and bad. It's all about your overall resume. As an example, in 2018 Nebraska went 13-5, good for 4th in the Big Ten, but was left out because they had virtually no notable wins. On the flip side, OU was invited despite their 8-10 B12 record and slide to end the regular season because they had many quality wins in the early and middle portion of the season.

The good news for Michigan is that despite the current lacking state of their resume, they still have several opportunities to change that, starting this Saturday at home versus Indiana, plus road games against IU, Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Home games against UW and MSU are Q2 and thus not as impactful, but they definitely don't want to lose them, either.

I know their non-conference record is awful, but if they can win 5 of their last 7 they will be in the tourney. They have an opportunity to get some quality wins added to their resume. I don't know if only 4 wins would be enough. they would have to get a couple in the B1G tourney.

In my opinion the formula is pretty simple.  They have to go 4-3 for the remainder of the season, and win their first game of the BTT.  If they do that they will be on the road to Dayton. (Dayton, Ohio.  Not Dayton Ave.)

5-2 and they will be in Dayton even without a win in the BTT. 

5-2 with a BTT win and they clear the First Four.

It is possible, but not likely. If we win 12-13 games in the Big Ten, we will probably have beaten at least Indiana or Rutgers and those would be good wins. And if we are playing that well, there's a good chance we win at least one game at the B1G tourney. That would give us 19-20 wins. I think we get in with that many wins and at least one win, maybe two against ranked teams.

I can see them sending us to Dayton.  Good for ratings.

I’ll tell you what. Idk a lot but I know if they win every game they play from this day forth, the team shall be in. 

we'll make the tourney as a 7-12 seed based on how we finish is my guess.

Could they?  Sure.  Is it likely?  Not so much.  No games left against Minnesota or Nebraska, remaining games are all going to be good wins (if they are in fact wins).  Win enough to finish 2nd and things kind of take care of themselves.

It's possible, sure ---- USC finished 2nd in the Pac-12 in 2017-18 and didn't make the NCAA.  I think there have been a couple other examples of a 2nd-place Power conference team missing.

But the Big Ten simply provides so many opportunities to beat Top 50-type teams (at least half the conference), that it would be pretty unlikely this actually happens.

2017-18 USC was like 2022-23 Michigan in that they had one ugly OOC loss (Princeton/CMU) and no especially notable OOC wins.  The difference is that the Big Ten has so many more opportunities for good wins versus that 5-years-ago Pac-12 (the conference only got 3 to the NCAA, 2 of them First Four teams).  

No. Only because finishing 2nd would mean them going at least 5-2 down the stretch. Couple that with the 3 game winning streak they would be 8-2 and have a double bye. 5-2 would leave them at 19-12. Good enough to get in. Winning at least 1 BTT game to get to no worse than 20-13 makes them a lock. 
 

No because if we stay in 2nd place we've won some big games coming up

I tend to see this as a threshold victory issue rather than whether a second place finish is good enough solution to make the tournament.  Finishing second puts you in a two-game bye in the conference tournament. And it means you get additional quad 1 win opportunities no matter how many you end up with at season's end. 

That is the benefit of finishing second. But I think if you can get to 18 to 20 wins, that really ought to be good enough. You could get to 18 just by winning remaining home games. You've got to win quad 1's at home and look to split the remaining road games. But getting to 20 wins would be most optimal --whether realistic or not is a different story depending on what happens Saturday night. 

It's possible but not likely.  For one, 12-8 is highly unlikely to still be 2nd in the conference.  Someone will probably win 13 games.  For two, Michigan has a decent chance of making the tourney at 12-8.

If UM finishes with 12+ wins in conference there's no chance they don't make the tournament.  They'd have a bunch of wins against other tourney teams from the conference and while the committee is supposed to look at the season holistically at some point you have to look at how a team's playing the last 10-15 games vs. what they did in early November. 

It's possible we make it, but I'm not holding my breath.  This team has major issues in fundamental basketball skills.

Please see if John B wants to come back and if he does let Howard go.  The last couple of years been the same old thing no team identity and some how 〽️ plays well in Feb and makes in March Madness.