November 29th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
Didn't their computer model have Michigan losing to Ohio State by a modest amount, comparable to the spread, and then they tacked on some more points themselves because they felt Ohio State was that much better?
November 29th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Yeah take their predictions with a shaker of salt.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
or ignore them entirely.
it's great that anyone with a webcam and a set of vocal cords can find an audience. the flip side of that is that anyone with a webcam and a set of vocal cords can find an audience.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
All predictions should be taken with a shaker of salt.
Also, all opinions.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
....and margaritas
November 29th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
That's just like...your opinion, man.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Yes, and one of these guys picked Penn State over Michigan too. While I am sure some just watch or listen for entertainment, I don't really think these guys are very good at the knowing things about football thing.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
Beat me to it. I get their SEC fascination (it's lazy but defensible and I listen to plenty of people like Rian Russillo in spite of it) but they came in weirdly hot on the Penn St prediction in 2021 as well. I've been done with these guys for a while. Seems like one of them came in here and got defensive not too long ago.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
Yeah they said running the ball isn’t going to matter
November 29th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
Their computer score was 28-26 OSU. Both of them predicted comfortable OSU victories.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
They did post a "why we got it wrong" analysis of the OSU game.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
Why not just go to RCMB to get clueless analysis. Although being underestimated is kinda delicious.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
They did the same thing for the PSU game.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
To the Nerd's credit, they do go to some length to explain why their predictions were so far off, and eat a bit of crow in doing so...
November 29th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
Their PSU takes were terrible too. In that case they didn't trust their model and the thing they were most confident in was taking the under by a mile lol.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
Gotta give us some of the substance of their post, big fella. I don't just go wading off into such terrain without a few hints.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
Their computer says M 33-15.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
Their predictions were 34-17 (Daniel) and 38-21 (Josh). General vibe is that this is a bad matchup for Purdue b/c of Michigan's pass defense and that Purdue's passing offense is not efficient.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
When I watched them earlier this year they didn't have much of a run game either. If that hasn't changed, then M does the same thing they did against OSU and play the pass. They do have a decent receiver, but no one like Marvin Harrison Jr.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
Mockobee has put up some good numbers on the ground, but I'm pretty lukewarm on him. He did put up 178 on Nebraska, but c'mon, it's Nebraska. 214 combined yards against Wisconsin and Illinois is pretty decent, but on 51 carries, so not real efficient. From memory he looks pretty lanky and upright when he runs, which to me would make him easier to tackle.
On the other side of the ball, they are going to get bulldozed by whomever totes the rock for Michigan. And then if/when they sell out to stop it, JJ will hit them over the top.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
Mockobee's had a couple of good games, but from a season perspective, he's just a guy. 23 catches on the year, so they'll dump off to him, but Chuck Sizzle is the dangerman by a long shot.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
I think this is a bad matchup for Purdue because Michigan is the #2 team in the country and completely housed every one of their opponents that did not have the distinction of being the one Michigan was looking past to Ohio State, and there is no Ohio State for Michigan to overlook Purdue for this weekend.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
That said, a lot of the factors that made the game close could be in play. Namely, managing our injuries/risk. On the flip side, winning the conference is a huge goal for the team. Not just the division. The conference.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
That said, a lot of the factors that made the game close could be in play. Namely, managing our injuries/risk.
The difference here being that Michigan gets a month off between games instead of six days. If someone comes down with a boo-boo, unless it's catastrophic, it likely wouldn't keep them out of the CFP. Also, Michigan has three team goals: beat MSU, beat OSU, and win the Big Ten. Can't do that last one if you're not taking the matchup seriously.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
Good point. Yeah I think they are going to be fired up and full go this weekend. The big question for me is if Blake plays. If he can use that leg and put up a big game without doing any damage, he could still get an invite to NYC.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:45 PM ^
Michigan is a bad matchup for Purdue, but Purdue will play Michigan more competitively than Ohio State did. Riiiiiiiight.
I appreciate that these guys are trying to do something broad and based on analytical truths, but their model is clearly bad and they self-correct the wrong way a lot, so the whole thing is pretty empty and not very valuable.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
These guys said that the Michigan - Penn State game was closer than the final score and turned on a couple of plays, when anyone watching the game would have said the opposite. I take everything these guys said with a massive pinch of salt.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
That was where they lost me. Dude, just admit you didn't watch the game (or at least look closely at the box score). 18-1 First downs in the first half ain't "pretty even play". Otherwise I really like their stuff.
I know these guys go on MGoblog. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:14 PM ^
Yup. For "football nerds" you'd think that they would see how we deserved to beat Penn State by even more. Any credible power rating system would have the post-game expected win margin to be higher than the 24-point victory it turned out to be.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
Why do these guys keep getting posted on the board so often? They're pretty commonly wrong and it's not like they're a big YouTube channel either
November 29th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
this is my question. it's not even about being right or wrong, it's just...noise.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
Is it the same poster or posters putting up their videos? Might be a personal connection, which is a bad reason to post this nonsense.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
They have learned to post their own M stuff here for massive increase in views
November 29th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
Not really sure if these guys add anything of value to the discourse at this point. There are other analytics folks out there with more proven credibility and football knowledge than these guys. Maybe we can all just move past these guys lol
November 29th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
They are more on point when it comes to the SEC. I think they actually watch those games though.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
I actually think that the two predictions in this one are pretty much spot on, for a change. Those scores more or less jive with what I’m thinking, too. A Michigan 37-24 win is my official prediction.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
I don't see Purdue scoring 24 points. They'll kick some field goals and that's about it. Too one dimensional and they'll stall in the red zone. I think we'll give up 13-17 points max.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
Don't get me wrong -- I think some of those 24 will be in definitive garbage time. However, I do think that their QB is VERY GOOD, and he'll undoubtedly be playing with some extra passion, given the tragedy that he's going through right now.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
Yes, I'm sure he'll get a shot at the NFL, but he's not as accurate as Stroud, although he is a bit more mobile. But he also doesn't have the kind of receivers to throw to as Stroud, or the OL talent to protect him. And they don't even try to have a serious run game. I could see them score 10 in the first half, lucky to get 3 after that.
My concern is how much offense M will bring to bear. Without Corum and only partial Edwards, how much run game can we get going? Will JJ show he can consistently hit those deep passes? Will the team be a little hungover after The Game? (They weren't last year, hopefully not this year)
I see high variability in M's scoring. They could hang 45 on them, or they could struggle to move it and get half that. For that reason I could see the game being close in the first half, but they'll take care of business in the second. I could see the D getting a couple picks, since the QB does have occasional ball protection issues.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
I can buy that. I wouldn't put them past 20 points when it counts, but a morale TD late in the game fits.
For Michigan to take the foot off the gas though the game will have to be well out of reach. So maybe your prediction isn't too far-fetched.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
This is a super hard one for me to call, and I haven't seen a lot of Purdue this season.
My feeling is it's about 70% chance one-sided Michigan blowout, where that Purdue defense is hammered. I wouldn't be shocked if Michigan just gets rolling and scores like 50 in that scenario.
And 30% chance Purdue does the "we're only interested if the team is top 5" thing and forces us to win a really uncomfortable game.
edit: I don't know, maybe that should be 80-20, Purdue only seems to go into challenger mode at home.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
Yeah, Purdue only conjures their "Spoilermaker" juju at home. I know that WL is closer to Indy than A2, but I don't see how the crowd is anything less than 70/30 M fans.
November 29th, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
And remember, their famous 2018 win over OSU was not only at home, but featured a sick kid on the sideline.
November 29th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
I haven't crystallized around any sort of prediction, and my own OSU prediction was way off (I assumed OSU would pull it off by about 7-9 points). But I've generally under-predicted Michigan's performance this year.
Exceptions to Illinois -- which I think we all understand to have been playing as tightly to the chest as possible the week before OSU -- and Maryland, who scored a garbage time TD with :48 left in the game to bring it to 34-27, there haven't been any games that remained close in the 4th quarter. There's a point in almost every game where you can see the moral backbone of the opponent just snap and points come spilling out.
Purdue is not a bad team by any means. Heck, I'd even call them a "good" team. They've hung with some really good teams, and they've beaten some decent-to-good teams. I just think it's going to be too much for them to keep up with.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
Again, I get that predicting college football games is hard but as I outlined in my comments a mere 7 days ago when their take on M-OSU was posted (spoiler alert: they assumed OSU would win by 2 TDs and said things like "CJ Stroud is playing like the best QB in the country now") a lot of their analysis seems pretty surface-level and when your "model" is opaque and pretty consistently gets the outcome wrong (they are now 2/6 in predicting the right outcome in UM games over the past couple of years, and one of them was picking UM over Iowa last year in the BTCG) it might be time to stop posting them as some thoughtful analysis.
I think they watch SEC games more and have a better read on those teams so maybe their system works better there. But otherwise it sure feels like their analysis around the Big 10 is to look at some box scores and basic national stats and call it a day.
Yes, they now predict that an undefeated Michigan team that has an average MOV of 19 points in conference on the year will beat an 8-4 Purdue team...by around 16 points, give or take a FG. Truly ground-breaking stuff.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
I listened to about 5 minutes and it was clear that they weren't going to have anything interesting to say.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
You missed a fascinating conversation on workout gear and castration anxiety.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
I think anybody who predicts football games is going to get it wrong a fair amount. I find these guys fairly entertaining.
Plus, once Vegas came out with that 8 point line, you knew everybody in the prediction business was going to talk themselves into Michigan being completely unable to win that game, that's just the way it works.
I also wouldn't say they're bad analysts, they understand football reasonable well.
Where I will ding them though, is, frankly, I don't think they watch Big Ten football outside of the big games. Some of their analysis of what OSU and Michigan did throughout the season had the ring of somebody who looked mostly at stats rather than the on-field product.
Also, Michigan killed PSU, that was one of the most dominant football performances I've seen of a good team and the score was a really poor reflection of how much we controlled that game. If they did try to say it was close, that's a blatantly bad take.