Is the CFP Top 4 supposed to be the 4 Best Teams or 4 Most-Deserving Teams?
During last night's CFP rankings, Kirk Herbstreit and some others were begging for FSU to be replaced by Bama (if they win against Georgia), because it's supposed to be the 4 "best teams" and clearly FSU isn't one of the best 4 teams now that their star QB is not playing. However, I always thought the CFP committee was supposed to be ranking the teams based on who was most deserving? Or do I have that wrong?
IMO, if FSU goes undefeated, they are deserving of being in the CFP. Anyone else that has 1 loss has no right to complain... if they wanted to be in the CFP, then they shouldn't have lost a game. Period. I mean, if FSU does win, they're going to be a 4 seed and get blown out by Georgia (assuming Georgia wins in the SEC title), but I can't see the CFP committee not letting an undefeated Power 5 team in the CFP in favor of a one loss team.
Thoughts?
November 29th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
Putting a one-loss SEC team in over an undefeated ACC champion would be patently insane. It won’t be necessary anyway. If both those teams win, the playoff will be Michigan, Oregon, FSU, and Bama.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
Most deserving. Which precludes AN Ohio state university.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
Or Washington
November 29th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
FSU could easily lose to Louisville without their quarterback.
BUT, assuming they win, it should be the best 4 teams over the entire year and not the beat 4 teams at the end of the year. FSU is clearly a better team over the entire year because Bama had a lot of close games and one loss.
It’s also the best 4 Teams and the QB loss at the end of the year shouldn’t factor in.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:21 PM ^
10-10 It happens.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
The "best" implies the best team *at the moment of selecting the CFP invitees*, which one could argue could be a team with mediocre record that came on strong at the end.
"Most deserving" implies an entire body of work should be considered, even if not "the best" at the moment of selection.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
And if Texas wins, they get left out, even though they beat Bama at Bama?
If the CFP wants controversy, then they want Bama to beat UGA. If they'd rather avoid having people angry, they're better off with:
UGA wins, UM wins, Texas wins, FSU loses. Doesn't matter at that point who wins between Washington and Oregon.
November 29th, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
You can't ignore head-to-head given the same record. Texas should be in over Bama.
Bama beating Georgia, thus (Hopefully) leaving out an SEC team in the playoff would be absolutely glorious.
Fuck SEC.
November 29th, 2023 at 8:45 PM ^
Why should Bama go in over Texas if they win? Texas won at Bama.
November 30th, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
One could argue that giving Alabama the 4th spot over a Texas team who soundly beat them in their own stadium, might be equally patently insane...
November 29th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
I always thought that the best 4 teams were the most deserving.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
It's always seemed to me that is what 90% of the country feels, but the playoff committee is made up of people from the other 10%.
I've always thought it should be the old BCS model of a hybrid of computer and human rankings equally weighted and just take more teams as opposed to the top two going to a BCS championship. There was never a problem with the rankings except when there were 3 undefeated teams. They expanded to 4 but unnecessarily abandoned the system. Replace the bullshit coaches poll with a committee and combine it with the computers and away we go. There's no question of best team vs most deserving team. If you're the first out you should've played a bit better. At least everyone who is definitely deserving of being in will be in. And the rankings within the playoff teams will be less controversial.
edit: May have misread your statement. "Best" teams to the media heads talking about excluding FSU are talking about subjective best team on the field and most likely to win so Bama and Georgia are always more likely to get in than anyone else based on Starz. Most deserving is based on results. Play to win the game.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
I've always thought that we should secede from the BCS and the winner of the B1G should play in the Rose Bowl but that ship has long sailed so we play in a league with Rutgers and four teams that will start their home basketball games after 10:00 p.m.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
No. Think about TCU and Alabama last year. Almost anyone would have picked Alabama to win in a head to head as "better". But TCU had better results throughout the season, so they deserved to be in. The games matter. If it's 'best' based on how people perceive teams rather than based on who won the games, then why even play the games?
November 29th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
If it isn't the 4 most deserving, then why play a season?
Michigan, FSU, Washington all well out of the top ten in aggregate talent rankings. All clearly better teams than Alabama this year (you know, if on the field results matter).
November 29th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
Agreed, nobody cares about who stacks the most talent in a 4-5 year recruiting cycle. You have to win on the field!
November 29th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
Per the CFP Selection Committee Protocol "
- The selection committee’s task will be to select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and then assign the teams to sites.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
I don't even think you should be using Alabama as a default example here. There is real doubt whether Alabama is even one of the four BEST teams.
I'm confident that UGA, UM, OSU, and Oregon would all be favored over Bama.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
This is why my preferred set of P5 winners this weekend is - Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas, and Bama.
Based on what the CFP Selection Committee and criteria say - conference championships and head to head matter.
So, if both Texas and Bama win on Saturday - shouldn't Texas be seeded above Bama? After all, there was a "head to head" game - in Tuscaloosa - earlier this year - and, we all know who won that contest.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
You play the games. You play whoever is on the field. Win them all and that counts. Texas beat Bama. Oklahoma beat Texas. Oklahoma lost to Okl. St. Oregon lost to Washington and osu lost to us.
There is no way they leave out a P5 undefeated conference champion. FSU wins Sat. and they are in.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
It's stupid to take out an undefeated team that plays in a P5 conference. Especially is FSU beats a ranked Louisville team. And if anything, if Texas wins they should replace a 1 loss Georgia if Michigan, Washington and FSU all win their games.
What is the incentive to schedule a potential Out of Conference Playoff opponent in the regular season if your win is not going to be beneficial to you in this scenario? I'd be livid if I was Texas and missed out in that scenario, especially going on the road and doing it.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
It is ridiculous to take out *any* undefeated team, regardless of their conference affiliation. Otherwise, what is the point of having those teams in the same division as the "CFP worthy" teams?
People forget (or choose to ignore) that the rapid changeover from BCS to CFP was prompted by politicians from Utah & Idaho threatening to have hearings & possible anti-trust legislation drafted against the BCS for their numerous omissions of schools such as Utah (while still in MWC) & Boise State despite having undefeated seasons... it was not the Bama/LSU rematch as many choose to believe.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
It's stupid to take out an undefeated team that plays in a P5 conference
Especially because three undefeated P5 teams in 2004 (where Auburn was left out of the BCS CG) was a major impetus for creating a playoff in the first place. The SEC screamed bloody murder, and back then they actually had a point (and we've been dealing with their ridiculous propaganda ever since)
I don't think the committee should be in the business of predicting games, which is what they would be doing if FSU were left out due to Travis' injury. ESPN talking heads get their predictions wrong en masse and yet still speak with certainty about what would happen if X and Y played.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
This matter is pretty much a no-win, the knife cuts in every direction discussion. And this is why going to an expanded playoff mitigates, at least, some of the questions that will swirl about any endeavor to determine who the single best team is-from within a very large group.
This is not to pick on FSU (though I am)...they may well have finished fourth in the B1G East. Context does matter and I am very glad for the new format.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
Hook em
November 29th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
All year they preach head to head and most deserving . Changing it now is a joke
November 29th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
Can't it be a mix of both? How do you determine "best" without "most deserving?"
IMO if FSU wins their conference championship game along with a rivalry win over Florida with their backup QB, they are getting in.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
"But Florida is so bad!"
The Florida that lost to Mizzou on a last second field goal? The Mizzou that kept it close against Georgia and for that reason alone is ranked ahead of Penn State?
It's all narrative driven and it's really annoying. They're still printing articles about how Michigan had the easiest schedule of the playoff worthy teams when their SOR is #1 and SOS is 4th out of the 8 teams. ESPN is using THEIR OWN DATA points and still being like- Nahhhh.
OSU-6
Texas-13
Bama-31
Mich-36
Wash-46
FSU-56
UGA-59
Ore-62
November 29th, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
Florida and Missouri are both bad. Georgia is super overrated. Who have they played? For the past two years we've watched Georgia fans pretend beating Kentucky is an accomplishment. This year they're on about Mizzou. Give me a fucking break. We're gonna kill 'em.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
Ultimately, no one knows. The CFP committee has never been very clear (or consistent) about their ranking methodology. Are they ranking by resume or power? Personally, I prefer resume rankings for postseason decisions. Every ranking method has an element of subjectivity, but power ranking always feels like an exercise in motivated reasoning. It always looks like the ranker starts with their desired outcome and works backwards to find a justification.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^
I think it should be entirely resume to determine the top 4.
And then within the top 4, you incorporate power along with resume to make the matchups fairer for the teams that deserve it.
For example, if we're #1 we shouldn't get matched up with Georgia because that would be unfair.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
Really in practice it should some combination of the two. If two teams have similar W-L resumes I would like the tiebreaker to be "who is better?" Otherwise I think most deserving is basically how it always shakes out. I do think some of this is the creeping realization that if Bama upsets UGA the SEC could get left out. I know it seems impossible but if Michigan wins, Washington wins, FSU wins, Bama wins, and Texas wins you have:
13-0 Michigan, Washington, and FSU. All 3 get bids as undefeated conference champions. The 4th spot is between 12-1 Bama, 12-1 Texas, and 12-1 UGA. You can not put UGA in over Bama since Bama just beat UGA on a neutral field. You also can not put Bama in over a Texas team that beat them by 10 in Tuscaloosa. Now if you were going to jump Bama over one of the other 3, FSU is the only target. Michigan has 2 top 10 wins and tops all the metrics, Washington has way too many quality wins, but FSU without their star QB and best wins are Louisville and LSU. You could talk people into that.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
No way Alabama should jump an undefeated conference champ. That should not be a thing. IF FSU can beat Louisville, it should be them.
Rob
November 29th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
This is what I pictured while reading your post.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
I'm telling you that if Bama beats Geo. there will be a land war in Asia.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
Results based charting.
If you're a power 5 team, undefeated, and you win your conference championship, you should be in. yeah, fortunately, so far we haven't had 5 of those, and obviously no way for that to happen this year.
To me, if Washington and FSU win, they are in. If Michigan wins, we're in.
Everybody else would be vying for the 4th spot. Obviously if Georgia wins, they are in.
IMO, if Alabama beats Georgia (and Wash/FSU/UM win), and Texas wins, then the SEC is out, because Texas beat Alabama head to head.
Rob
November 29th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
Which four teams?
It seems to me that many members of the CFP Selection Committee are very flexible and creative.
The one unwritten rule that is rarely raised is - "What two SEC teams can be placed into the playoff - and, how can we derive a rationale to justify it."
November 29th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
That is exactly it, any of the one loss teams from other conferences luck box their way past a team that just got walloped by New Mexico State and they'd place them at the bottom of the one loss teams, maybe even behind some two loss teams. But somehow the talking heads are telling us Alabama is more deserving than Texas.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^
I really think we should ask Saban.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
I keep seeing mocks that have Bama getting in if they beat Georgia, and Texas being left out even if they win their game.
If memory serves me correct, Texas beat Bama in their house this year so they have the head to head.
If Texas can beat Bama (on the road), and Bama can beat Georgia, then logic says "Texas could probably beat Georgia".
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the CFP Committee boils down to one thing.
Recency Bias.
And that is a damn shame.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
Respectfully, it's not limited to Recency Bias - it's SEC bias.
Can you explain how a four loss Tennessee team is ranked? Perhaps a four loss Clemson team? Or, a three loss ND whose two best wins are over 7-5 teams (Duke and USC) that didn't receive a single point in most recent AP or Coaches poll?
Surely - you jest - there's no bias in this system whatsoever.
Oh the humanity.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
I think it’s written that is the four best teams but not sure how you determine that outside of determining most deserving based on record and performance.
FSU may not be a juggernaut but hard to argue against the getting the job done while Bama lost at home
November 29th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
IMO it should be the most deserving.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
November 29th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
IMO it should be the most deserving.
But...what does that mean? Aggregate roster recruiting ranking? Game results? Some independent group of person doing the eye test?
To me, the most objective thing is: Results on the field. Not perfectly objective, but step 1 is, results on the field. No way to suggest Alabama over Texas on that basis.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
It absolutely SHOULD be the most deserving.
There are plenty of teams that could claim to be within the 4 best in the country. But if they don't play to their potential all the time and drop a game or two that they shouldn't, then they shouldn't be in the playoff. The regular season is supposed to mean something.
It's not exactly on point, but imagine once they expand the playoff and a team is winning a game, but they lose their starting QB in the fourth quarter, the other team makes a comeback but falls short. Who's the best team at game's end? Possibly the team that lost. So what? They lost! The winning team, the team that did enough throughout the game, moves on, even if they're going to get killed in the next round.
Same should go with picking for the playoffs. If the "best" teams want to be in, tell them not to lose next time.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
It should be "most deserving" --- e.g., what teams have the best resumes (in terms of strict wins and losses, I wouldn't even include margin-of-victory) at the end of the year.
ESPN is involved, however. And they want $$$$ and eyeballs. Thus, we hear these more nebulous and hard-to-define "best team" and "eye test" criteria.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:11 PM ^
Completely agree. You don't see the NFL pulling teams out of the playoffs because their best player is hurt. That's the whole point of the regular season, to determine who is in the playoffs. No need to mess around with "other factors" -- this process is already complicated enough.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
It’s the most deserving best two teams after the SEC figures out which two they are sending.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol
MISSION
- The selection committee’s task will be to select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and then assign the teams to sites.
PRINCIPLES
- The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
- Conference championships won,
- Strength of schedule,
- Head‐to‐head competition,
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
- Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
Basically it's whatever they want it to be. Disqualifying an undefeated FSU because they lost their QB is within their "principles" but outrageously disgusting.