Breezy non-hostile discussion of Michigan basketball under Juwan Howard
I know there have been a ton of posts about Juwan and Michigan basketball lately. Nearly all of the discussion results in a breakdown of takes that is precisely “fire the bum” or “give him another year.” That is ground trust has been covered.
However, I watched Juwan’s press conference from a while back after Rutgers. If you have not watched it it is worth a view. No, not linking it cuz I’m bad at stuff.
Two things jump out to me. 1 - Juwan is not checked out. He is taking this losing personally and it is not rolling off his back, and 2 - Juwan genuinely feels like there is a lack of true effort from the players themselves in terms of effort and pride.
Juwan also offers a full throated defense of he and his staff regarding results. He persuasively points to BIG championship, Elite 8, Sweet 16, as recent anecdotes to support his system and his methods. I will admit, I was somewhat persuaded.
So, with these ideas above in mind, has the anti-Juwan movement gone too far too fast? Are the first-half performances we are seeing this season indicative of a young team that has pieces that will eventually mold? We lose a couple of key contributors next year, but get a couple young pieces as well and presumably Dug will be eligible. Reed and Tschetter are promising ball players. The portal is there.
Additionally, who is Michigan going to get instead? Who wants this job? Who is going to more successfully recruit for this program? John Beilein ain’t walking through those doors.
So, just to discuss. Why is this team as bad as it is? Is it maybe more of a one-off than we have collectively concluded? What is the direction of the program if we look elsewhere and start over?
Happy Tuesday.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:53 AM ^
All good takes except I don’t think they were overseeded in the Sweet 16 year. I think they got a favorable second round draw though.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:00 AM ^
You're right, they weren't over-seeded. In my mind they got to play Colorado State because of being a high seed. But actually they just were rewarded with a ridiculously nice draw. I also remember thinking they might not make the tournament or could be a First Four team.
The win over Tennessee was a good win.
Anyway, the team was 17-13 going into the BTT (11-9 in conference). They lost the first game to 9th seeded Indiana. They finished 19-15.
We remember it fondly for the win over UT to go to the Sweet 16 but it was not that good a year.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:41 AM ^
Accurate. And the Covid year team was sitting at 8th in the Big Ten. That team, which had Teske and Simpson, wasn't as good as they could have been. I think he's had one great year, but he's coupled that with average to bad seasons every other year. Average may be generous. The proof is in the pudding.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:52 AM ^
It ain’t easy being breezy.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:09 PM ^
Being sleazy is easy?
February 21st, 2024 at 11:14 PM ^
Swing easy when it's breezy.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:57 AM ^
Roster : his fault
lack of effort : his fault
overall downward slide : his fault
early success : not all because of him alas (players trained under a different head coach)
February 20th, 2024 at 11:05 AM ^
I agree with the roster and the overall slide but can we stop with this "he only won with Beilein's players" bullshit because it's just factually incorrect. Even if we want to not give him any credit for Franz, he still brought in Hunter Dickinson and Terrence Williams from recruiting and then brought in Smith and Brown via the portal. Livers had been a solid player under Beilein but Eli Brooks was barely playable under Beilein and looked destined for the transfer portal but under Howard he developed into a plus player. Same with Austin Davis, who looked like an end-of-bench player for Beilein but who developed into a solid big off the bench under Howard.
Howard bears a lot of blame for how bad the basketball team is now but that doesn't mean we need to dismiss every bit of success he had because this fanbase can't comprehend nuance and people containing multitudes.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:29 AM ^
EDIT: (in)correct, factually incorrect....
February 20th, 2024 at 1:49 PM ^
hey bronx -
I just said "not all because of him alas"
which doesn't mean he shouldn't get *some* credit. but, the reality is, he can't claim full credit, and the more on his own he gets, the worse the team gets
this is stated as a Juwan fan
February 20th, 2024 at 10:58 AM ^
Sorry, but pointing to the first two years with Beilein's guys as a defense for how successful you "could" be, is like trying to sell ketchup popsicles to a woman in white gloves. Unless you're dumb, you ain't buying it. It's been a complete disaster since the Elite 8 loss.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:12 PM ^
I don't want your ketchup popsicles, and I'm not a woman in white gloves. That's just a terrible flavor for popsicles.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:58 AM ^
In my opinion, if our only defenses for keeping a coach is his press conference answers then the writing is on the wall. There are 0 other tangible defenses.
Results: worse every year he gets away from Beilein's players, culminating this year in the worst Michigan basketball team of my lifetime (I was born in '96).
Recruiting/Team-Building: Downhill slide since the Diabate/Houstan class which was also a flop because the team didn't fit together. We had 2 NBA players, an All-American, and Eli Brooks on that team and the best he could do with it was an 11-seed. Has apparently no desire to have guards on his teams.
In-Game Coaching: Defense has plummeted to non-existent, the offense clicks early in games but there are no apparent halftime adjustments, and he is on track for being one of the worst late-game coaches college basketball has ever seen.
Behavior: Says the right things in press conferences, never seems to do the right things anywhere else. Has slapped a coach, has pissed off a long-tenured and well-respected S&C coach, and pushes his "chicago born and raised" mantra as an excuse for his temperamental behavior even though he's a grown-ass man.
Sorry, he has to go.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:43 AM ^
Logged in just to upvote you, but I don't know how to do that or maybe even have enough points or whatever. Born in '96? Awesome.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:08 PM ^
Here's two for ya. I think you need 100 to upvote.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:19 PM ^
Thanks, brother! Logging out now and going back to obscurity.
February 21st, 2024 at 12:23 AM ^
Damn, I think the socks I'm wearing are older than '96
February 20th, 2024 at 12:33 PM ^
This makes me think Franz held the program up in those years, but we should be grateful he got Franz to come. Juwan also brought in Brown and Dickinson. But you're right when I think about it, and it sucks. Assume Beilein didn't make inroads with Franz, and this would have been evident years ago.
Mike Francesa at the time said it was a terrible hire, and at time I really disagreed because of the timing of Belein.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:07 PM ^
I don't mean to be a downer, I do think Juwan has the "stuff" to be a good coach but he hasn't stayed out of his own way. His offensive acumen is excellent, and it shows in the offensive sets that we ran in his first few years. Particularly, his variations of the traditional "Horns" sets are a big reason why Dickinson became such a beast here both as a scorer and a passer.
The problem we're seeing is the personnel doesn't fit the offensive structure. Horns works when you have the threat of shooters and slashers. When we had Livers, Franz, and Eli they provided the threat of both. On the current team, we don't have many (any?) speedy rim attackers, and on top of that many of those guys are okay-at-best shooters outside of Nimari. Once a team figures out how to handle us defensively, we revert to isolation post-ups and rim-attacks that are simply low-efficiency ways to score.
Defensively Juwan needs to just give up the keys and hire a DC, similar to Beilein. Simple as that.
If he could give up Defensive coaching and restructure his personnel decisions I really think he could succeed. But it's been 5 years, and he hasn't shown any signs of doing anything remotely close to this.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:07 PM ^
I don't mean to be a downer, I do think Juwan has the "stuff" to be a good coach but he hasn't stayed out of his own way. His offensive acumen is excellent, and it shows in the offensive sets that we ran in his first few years. Particularly, his variations of the traditional "Horns" sets are a big reason why Dickinson became such a beast here both as a scorer and a passer.
The problem we're seeing is the personnel doesn't fit the offensive structure. Horns works when you have the threat of shooters and slashers. When we had Livers, Franz, and Eli they provided the threat of both. On the current team, we don't have many (any?) speedy rim attackers, and on top of that many of those guys are okay-at-best shooters outside of Nimari. Once a team figures out how to handle us defensively, we revert to isolation post-ups and rim-attacks that are simply low-efficiency ways to score.
Defensively Juwan needs to just give up the keys and hire a DC, similar to Beilein. Simple as that.
If he could give up Defensive coaching and restructure his personnel decisions I really think he could succeed. But it's been 5 years, and he hasn't shown any signs of doing anything remotely close to this.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:55 PM ^
I agree with all your points. The data is there that he is not a good coach. The behavior is the worst part, even in the press conference referenced by the OP I didn't take his rant as showing that he cares but its something coaches who have lost the locker room tend to say.
As to the OP, for not wanting to discuss whether Howard should be fired or not your post sure went right into that by the defense of him and asking who would we hire that's better. The conversation went right to what you claimed you didn't want discussed because you discussed it yourself. Terrible post, there I said it. As to who can we hire that's better? Literally just about any other collegiate or NBA coach.
February 20th, 2024 at 3:58 PM ^
“Has apparently no desire to have guards on his teams.”
Its this simple.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:05 AM ^
Trend lines are important. Brady Hoke had an 11-2 year and was fired after only 4 years on the job because the trend lines were down. Yes, Juwan's had success, but the success was early on and the trend lines are down. This isn't a blip, it's the next logical step in a progression that has continued steadily downward since Howard arrived.
Do Juwan's systems work? Yes, in some ways. He's clearly developing players because we've seen guys like Diabate and Bufkin get better throughout the year and then go pro before they're able to really do any damage in college ball. His in-game coaching is probably at least decent given the results we got early in his tenure, although the inability to close out close games suggests there are some issues there.
The big problem is that the further we get from Beilein, the worse the roster construction becomes. Furthermore, if players are checked out, that's on the head coach, whose job it is to recruit players who won't check out and to inspire and motivate them throughout the season.
Good coaches have players that consistently give effort, because one of the college coach's many jobs is to motivate. You don't see good coaches have an off year because the players just don't happen to care that year. Players play for their coaches.
As best as I can tell, Howard is pretty good at the tactical and developmental aspects of basketball. However, he seems to be pretty bad at roster construction, culture-building, and motivation. At this level, that's not good enough to be a good head coach.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:08 AM ^
They are 8-18 and underdogs in every remaining game. Even if they improve by 10 wins next year, which to be clear is not guaranteed and would a massive improvement, they would still likely not be a tournament team. That is how far away we are at this point. There are lots of quality coaches at lower levels or equal levels that can be poached. TJ Otzelberger is top of the list, McDermott at Creighton is reportedly looking around, Dusty May is gonna be looking, Mitch Henderson at Princeton is worth looking at, Darian DeVries at Drake has a .730 win % and 3 NCAA tournaments in 6 seasons and is only 48. Point is there are fair number of coaches I'd take my chances with over Juwan going forward.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:10 AM ^
Maybe if we rabble harder on the internets Warde will fire Juwan.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:13 AM ^
I'm expecting Warde to let him come back next year, even though I'm ready for Dusty May or some other mid-Major guy to come in and get us at least into the NIT in two years. Next year is a loser no matter what we do. The roster has deteriorated and Dug is likely to leave even if JH stays.
We were caught short (JB leaving in the later spring left us without an easy hire). This was an experiment that has failed even worse than I thought.
Love Juwan's passion and drive. Dislike his "Chicago" attitude when it comes to slapping and getting into bench clearing arguments.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:14 AM ^
Obviously not a popular opinion here but I'm in the camp of giving him another year and here are my reasons:
1. He had health issues this year that were serious and took him away from the team for an extended period of time.
2. He HAS accomplished all the things he listed in his press conference after the Rutgers game. Those are real and they happened.
3. Both Beilein and Harbaugh had very rough seasons. Beilein in his 7th season (2014) went 16-16 and Harbaugh went 2-4 in 2020. Both coaches turned things around immediately afterward.
4. Juwan, like Harbaugh, has a Michigan legacy that began as a player. Nobody wants this thing to work more than they do - none of us can imagine how badly he (and Jim) feel and want to make things work.
I know I definitely was "loud and proud" calling for Harbaugh's termination after the 2020 season and I was wrong. And while I dont remember what I said it would not shock me if I also called for coach B to get smoked after the 2014 failure. And I was wrong both times.
Old dogs can learn new tricks sometimes.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:24 AM ^
3. Both Beilein and Harbaugh had very rough seasons. Beilein in his 7th season (2014) went 16-16 and Harbaugh went 2-4 in 2020. Both coaches turned things around immediately afterward.
The difference is that both Harbaugh and Beilein had long track records of success prior to the down years. Also Harbaugh had the backdrop of a global pandemic and a "will they/won't they" play off-season. Beilein's down season saw the bullshit McGary suspension before the year AND Caris LeVert season ending foot fracture early in the season. That is two All America level guys he lost and still put together a watchable competent basketball team. While Juwan did have the off-season heart procedure this was a team picked to finish 11th so being bad was not a surprise to anyone.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:29 AM ^
Your points are noted, however, you are leaving off the rebuttal that matters. Both Harbaugh and Beilein showed that after terrible seasons that they were able to identify what needed to change and they were confident enough to make them. Both of those coaches changed their staff. In contrast after a terrible showing last year (no tourney with 2 high draft players and an All-American center), he made no changes to his staff. Its time for him to go.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:51 AM ^
Beilein got out of college basketball for the exact reason that most college blue bloods are having trouble these days. Beilein having prior success has nothing to do with the current culture of college basketball. Since he left, North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, and Uconn have all missed the tournament. I’m not saying Howard is the correct choice moving forward, but this isn’t the same league Beilein coached in, which is why he left at the most inopportune time for us to find a replacement. Whoever we bring in is going to have some of the same problems Howard has (although in game coaching has become a worry I didn’t think I’d have).
I’m not sure why anyone is talking about Harbaugh and football though as there really isn’t a comparison between the two sports. Their coaching challenges/sokutions are wildly different.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:50 PM ^
North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, and Uconn have all missed the tournament.
True, but let's look at what they did to correct that:
UNC: #10 in the country
Kentucky: #17 in the country
Duke: #8 in the country
UConn: #1 in the country
All of these teams had coaches that were willing to make changes and adjust and look they are thriving.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:54 AM ^
2014/2015 was the year we went 16-16 which included our two best players going down with season ending injuries.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:14 AM ^
Does the current roster have anyone on it who can come close to providing the kind of leadership that roughly a dozen members of the football team have over the past 2 or 3 years?
My guess is no, with the possible exception of Dug -- and that's if he's committed to sticking around.
Overwhelming talent isn't coming on board anytime soon; and even if they could find a way to add 1 or 2 really good players, they are still missing something. Hopefully Howard can figure out what that is between now and October.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:14 AM ^
Why is John Beilein not walking through that door? He was a coach that had been reasonably successful at a handful of smaller schools. It's not like he was a slam dunk when he was hired. There are a dozen coaches out there with similar resumes. The next John Beilein very well could be walking through the door.
I'm not saying Juwan can't be successful here, clearly he can. But this is literally the worst team in the Big Ten. Probably the worst UM team in decades. In year 5 of a coach's tenure. What's the bar for getting fired if not this.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:21 AM ^
Non-hostile approach appreciated. In a very pragmatic sense, teams under Howard have continued to worsen in the following areas:
* Fundamentals (turnovers, rebounds, shooting, shot choice)
* Hustle (see son last year, Caleb, etc..)
* Roster construction - there are holes every year in critical places. Nobody can shoot. Nobody can drive and finish.
* Recruiting strategy - Someone needs to be OUT FRONT on transfers and freshman to make sure there's a high likelihood of them joining. It is a waste of time, resources, and ultimately a perception hit when these things get to a 90% wall and fall apart. If its a limitation due to admissions, credits, school, whatever, then get over it and figure it out, or change it. Complaining about how its unfair is pointless.
* Talent Level - We complained about Beilein until we saw that he could win in his system (almost 2x) without the 5 stars coming in.
* Development - This is possibly the most disappointing. Players do not seem to be getting better year over year and game/month over game/month at the clip needed to compete. There is incremental improvement in a few role players like cheddarz.
* In-game execution (timeouts, strategy, line-ups, end-of-game execution)
* Discipline (see suspension, punching, etc..)
Ultimately, none of this matter if you win. But as noted, the winning is less and less by year.
This was all easily seen and sadly it will happen again next year, possibly even worse, without immense change - which I hope is at the top. Howard needs to go.
February 20th, 2024 at 7:46 PM ^
I'm not saying that Beilein recruited like Calipari but the implication he relied mostly on under-the-radar guys is a bit exaggerated. I understand that their star rankings varied during the recruiting cycle, but GRIII, McGary, Chatman and Irvin were all 5 stars at some point. Overall, there were lots of top 100 players, and a few classes ranked in the top 15 nationally, especially once he got going. I agree that Beilein was great at finding guys like Burke and Hardaway who were under-ranked, but sometimes I think people act as if all his recruits were 3 stars no one else noticed.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:23 AM ^
Since the Beilein players have dropped off Juwan's roster this team's success has dropped off a cliff. Watch the product that he is putting out. They now lack basic fundamentals. For example: This team has a hard time throwing an entry pass to a big man. They can't seem to play anything other than iso basketball and can't play defense without fouling. From a team that wasn't able to make the tourney last year, they had 2 NBA high draft picks and an All-American center, that is just bad coaching. From last year's awful results, I don't believe they made one change in their coaching staff - not one. Now the team is last in the Big Ten....LAST (currently, 3-12). Its time. I hope Juwan bows out and resigns in the post game presser after their loss in the first round B1G tourney game.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:24 AM ^
8-18 is embarasssing regardless of the “structural challenges”
February 20th, 2024 at 11:25 AM ^
That last sweet 16 was a little bit of "fools gold." On balance it was a pretty mediocre season.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:26 AM ^
One more thing: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/michigan/men/
Look at the records. He has 1 year of less than 12 losses. For the "runs" in the tournament, he's still typically had underperforming teams with 10-15 losses. Winning 2 games in March is nice, but its not enough when you go 17-15 in the regular season.
Beilein inherited about 15 years of utter garbage and after 1 bad year, completely turned things around.
Everything about Howard appears to be the anti-Beilien.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:41 AM ^
I don’t think the NCAA tourney is really about seeding though, which makes me a little less interested in regular season records. It is really about “peaking” as opposed to sustained excellence.
One of the reasons folding down the stretch last year was so brutal is because that team could have beaten anybody if they had gotten their act together. And there were signs. They played stretches of outstanding basketball in both the Illinois and Indiana games.
This really doesn’t counter your point. Yes, on balance they have been pretty mediocre in really every season except for one. But I don’t really think you can call any tournament run a fluke even if it comes from being a low seed. That happens all the time now.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:45 AM ^
I guess my point is... tourney results in march are great... and saying, "We made the sweet 16" is a great feeling, but... its winning 2 games. 2. In the end, in the NCAA tourney, everyone ends the season with an L except 1.
But there are other goals:
- Win the B10
- Beat our rivals
- Enjoy watching the team (Win or Loss)
- Win the B10 tourney
So, my point is that despite the 2 late season wins in the tourney, losing 14-15 games in the regular season leaves us falling short of almost every goal.
Its really hard to win it all - and 1-2 wins in March cannot be our only measure of success.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:27 AM ^
So I ask anyone who agrees with the above poster in the last couple years how many guys have been pulled and sat for missed assignments and lack of effort? Explain to me how he has held anyone accountable for how they have acted off the court? Ski masks?? Free Juwan shirts at Wisconsin(didn’t even making fucking sense) also spare me Dug. That was by far a ridiculous hilarious way to punish a kid. It only fractured the chemistry and got no one ready for away games in the process!
Someone above said it but Martelli on staff is useless. He just takes up a chair.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:42 PM ^
Anyone else think Chris Collins would be a good head coach here ? He seems too good of a coach to be at NW.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:02 PM ^
There is no way Chris Collins would come to Michigan. I said in my other post, we have too many structural issues that would scare every good coach out there. Until we fix those issues, we either stick with Juwan or roll the dice with a risky up and coming coach looking for a dare to great opportunity.
February 20th, 2024 at 2:38 PM ^
I 100% would love Collins. Wanted him after JB left and a lot of Michigan fans were against him.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:30 AM ^
They have the worst team in the big ten. The team has gotten worse every year since the second year under Howard. The team is a disaster.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:32 AM ^
You got me started, now I can't stop.
Trademarks of Beilein by year 5? Rebounding, not fouling, fundamental defense (once he hired the right staff), great shooting, low turnovers, offensive execution, smart play, great in-game strategy, leaders (Wagner, Poole, Novak, Teske, Simpson, Walton) fan excitement
Trademarks of Howard by year 5? Blowing big leads, completely unraveling at end of games, long scoring gaps, terrible individual and team defense, poor rebounding, fouls, too many turnovers, talent lacking, unclear rotations, no player leadership, players not improving, crowd apathy
February 20th, 2024 at 11:38 AM ^
JB took a lot longer then 5 years to fix defense and rebounding.
Someone above said JB did it without 5 stats which is true but he didn’t start really humming until he got those high 4 stars.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:44 AM ^
Beilein also took over a program that had been a dumpster fire for the better part of a decade, whereas Juwan took over a program that had just won 30 games and was a year removed from a national championship game appearance.