Anyone else sick?
I had a fever, cough and achy body Wednesday, have been on and off with what I would describe as a “mid-level cold” but certainly not bad enough to qualify for testing. Hoping down the road an antibodies test is available to see if this is or is not the Covid.
anyone else out there in this limbo where you are obviously sick but not really badly sick?
Live in Seattle. Pretty sure the whole family had it in late January
Same thing for me out of Vail in late January....everyone there seems to have it now.
User name checks out.
Do you realize that over 85% of people tested are negative? And keep in mind most of the people tested are deemed “likely” to have COVID19.
https://covidtracking.com/data/
You aren’t the first person to state that they are sure they already had it. I’m just wondering with flu being MUCH more likely you are sure it was COVID19?
Please don’t say “I had the flu before and this was worse.”
I had my flu vaccine. This want that bad. Had a cough for like two weeks, one kid had a fever but otherwise just a cough and malaise.
Maybe it was a cold.
Not saying you didn’t have it, but I should have also mentioned that people were only being tested if “likely” and (I think in most cases) also tested negative for the flu. At least that was the criteria in Hawaii.
Glad that whatever you had wasn't bad, but note that it could still be the flu since the yearly vaccine is never close to 100% effective. Early estimates for this year's batch are that it reduces your risk by about 50%.
That may be true but it’s not super relevant at the present time. Anyone who shows symptoms should act as if they have it and self quarantine. If it turns out you just had a cold, the worst outcome is that you had a very lonely and boring two weeks. If you do actually have covid-19 then you may have saved some lives
Do you realize that doctors and career epidemiologists, PhDs in their fields, people who are the cream of the crop in estimating risk, understand the concept of uncertain viral spread and how our testing regimin is able to estimate our number of cases? The same people who are estimating there are probably 10x as many cases as have been confirmed in the US.
No one who hasn't been tested is certain of anything. But please don't write off symptoms that are consistent with Covid as hysteria.
Sorry -- that sounds like an unpleasant experience.
Have to LOL a bit at the timing, though (Vail person more than you, as you're in Seattle). Look at when the first confirmed case was in the U.S.:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States
March 21st, 2020 at 10:04 PM ^
You can LOL all you want but it was the most sick I've been in years and I have young kids. Thing took 3/4 of the family down and lasted for over a week and then a hard dry cough for another two weeks after. Vail is extremely international....I wouldn't be surprised if it was running around Vail since January easily.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:18 PM ^
If covid-19 was all over Colorado in January, there'd be far more confirmed cases/deaths now.
You almost certainly had the flu. The flu isn't some joke, man . . . even with our vaccines it kills tens of thousands annually.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:26 PM ^
Some people think math and biology is fake news. Just ignore them.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:28 PM ^
Hard to tell because people come and go so frequently but apparently it's now running through Mexico because of Vail: https://www.vaildaily.com/news/mexican-visitors-to-vail-suspected-of-taking-coronavirus-home-with-them/
I wonder how many other cases in the US happened because of exposure in Vail/Aspen where the Australian skier infected 8 other people and then flew home before displaying any symptoms.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^
You can’t just cavalierly say he doesn’t have it. Nobody has any idea how many people have it in Colorado since until this week or so practically nobody there had been tested. Already 500 confirmed cases there and 6 deaths out of fewer than 2000 tests overall. Chances are the virus has been there for longer than anyone knew.
There are some epidemiologist’s saying it is possible there were cases in the US before January. It’s absolutely possible.
Good points on all sides, but always hard to say until we have tests. Definitely there is more corona out there, much more than has been tested.
But also important for ppl who haven't been positive yet to not think they had it and run around society now. Assume you didn't have it.
How did you get from "it was in Vail in January" to "It was all over Colorado in January"?
Yeah, I HAD THE FUCKING FLU at that time; you didn't have COVID-19.
The thing about this year's flu vaccine is that it was only 45% effective against one of the strands.
YOU HAD THE FLU.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:16 PM ^
You don’t know that man. Stop saying your beliefs as facts and telling people to conform at your command. Fascist behavior.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:20 PM ^
Nature and math don't care about your or my beliefs.
If this dude had coronavirus back then millions of Americans would be infected now. There's no denying that mathematically or biologically.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:33 PM ^
Millions of Americans likely are infected, the virus is mild for the overwhelming majority of people who get it. The numbers are lower because we are only testing clearly sick people. There were dozens of flights per day between China and the US up until like a month ago. This thing is all over the place and almost nobody is keeling over and dying. There was a specific outbreak at a nursing home in Washington filled with particularly at risk individuals and everybody freaked the fuck out.
But bonus - now nobody has any jobs and/or anyway to distract or comfort their families because our entire society is closed to everything indefinitely.
Nice work, we are all gonna die crowd.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:41 PM ^
You're just a fucking idiot. Plain and fucking simple.
The death rate is growing exponentially, it don't give a shit about borders.
But hey, go ahead and kiss someone with coronavirus if it's no big deal. And then go visit your elderly relatives.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:53 PM ^
The death rate is certainly NOT going up exponentially. As testing has increased almost exponentially we’ve seen the death rate come down quite a bit. It was at 1.2% earlier today in the US.
Maybe you are referring to the volume of deaths.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:00 PM ^
Yeah, volume of deaths. And death rate due to COVID vs total population.
Every infected person infects 2+ people, so deaths or death rate per total population will also increase exponentially.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:10 PM ^
Measuring death rate as deaths vs the total population is meaningless since the total population is more or less fixed while the deaths grow.
The standard death rate formula is: deaths/incidence. This is a way more meaningful way to measure this aspect. I recommend you use it too!
Also, as of last week we had one of the lowest death rates per capita (ie total population) in the world. I haven’t checked it lately, but I would guess were still one of the lowest.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:17 PM ^
Keep in mind, of our 26,000 confirmed cases, over 25,000 are active - the patient has neither recovered nor died. Most will recover of course, but some portion will die. To calculate the CFR now assumes that all 25,000 will recover, which is not realistic.
South Korea, which we all agree has been a model of handling this, has recently seen its CFR tick up, as some critically ill patients finally died. Their CFR was once 0.6% and now is above 1%.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:25 PM ^
As for your first paragraph, most experts are saying that due to the pathology of the virus (r-naught, etc) the number of people with it or who have had it is WAY higher than what we know. We just don’t have the testing to show it (but we will soon!). Didn’t some health minister person in Ohio day they estimate they have 100k infections in Ohio alone?
As for your second paragraph, Germany is at 0.4% currently. So...
March 21st, 2020 at 11:40 PM ^
Properly, a CFR should only be calculated from closed cases, because we don't know how these active cases will turn out. Of course we have only about 500 closed cases, so that's not a reliable sample either (it would give us a ghastly 66% CFR!).
We just don't have a lot of data yet.
As for Germany, they too have very few closed cases. We have to wait and see.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:50 PM ^
Agreed. Not a whole lot of reliable numbers now.
This is the only entirely true statement in this thread.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:30 PM ^
Yeah, I know that and acknowledged my incorrect implication.
The death/total pop will look just like the infection rate, which is what I wanted to emphasize.
I don't know why you think Caucasians would have a lower death rate per capita tho.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:54 PM ^
Wait, what?!? Please explain that last sentence for me.
Google the definition of "rate"
March 22nd, 2020 at 12:20 AM ^
wow... username checks out. You’re fuming on the internet. Was internet tough guy taken?
By the way, I agree with your overall position. I took a front line stance against the overreaction of the government. I won't bore you with my argument but suffice it to say 'we' were taking the brunt of the criticism a few weeks ago.
I just wanted to say you have a supporter out here. More than you would appreciate. We just drowned out by the vocal segments of society.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
Yeah, if it had reached community spread here in America in January, it would not have just flown under the radar for weeks. Everywhere in the world it's made its presence known quickly. Even with no covid-19 tests, our hospitals would have picked up on the fact that suddenly there were huge numbers coming in with flu symptoms and testing negative for flu.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:07 PM ^
I'm not so sure about that. My doctor speculated that this thing spread for months in China before they even knew what it was. If half the people that get it are asymptomatic, it would be entirely possible for the cases requiring treatment to be misdiagnosed as something else.
Mid February I took my son to the doctor thinking he had the flu. He had a high fever, sore throat, aches, and a nasty cough. Flu test was negative. So was the strep test. And yet he had pneumonia.
I'm not saying he had it, but it wouldn't surprise me if he did.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:44 PM ^
It's completely illogical tho. And if your son indeed had it, you've had it, and you've infected hundreds if not thousands of people.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:48 PM ^
How is that illogical? This thing was spreading in China at least as far back as November. There are daily flights from there to here.
You think this thing only got here 2 weeks ago when we finally started testing people?
That's illogical.
March 22nd, 2020 at 12:14 AM ^
Because a lot more people would have died a lot earlier, not only in the US but the rest of the world.
Look, if this thing has been here since December somehow, that's great. That'd mean a good chunk of the population is immune, it is a lot less deadly and contagious than we think, and the immune people would slow the spread. I mean when this gets to 50% immunity, herd immunity takes over and it dies off. That'd be super if we get there with limited deaths.
Of course, all the tests and deaths say otherwise. It's a straight fact that people that test positive for this have and X% chance of dying, and that correlation is far higher than any normal virus.
But don't let me rain on your parade, I'm sure the thing is so contagious and tame that tons of people have been undetectably infected for months but we don't know it.
chicken little...STOP fuming...get a grip. Covid19 is NOT directly correlated to DEATH TOLL...the absolute fact is, the virus is HIGHLY contagious. It is MORE dangerous because so many in the under 50 crowd are mild symptom, asymptomatic, and the outbreak LIKELY started at the peak of flu season. Early January nobody anywhere was fully aware of how quickly it was spreading, and as the old saying goes...figures never lie, but liars figure...statistics on this entire process are mediocre at best as there are far too many variables to control and understand
Issues:
state reporting is sketchy as not everyone is being tested and that is just now catching up...yet cannot fully capture 'EVERYONE'
the death rate is categorically isolated for the time being...65+ with underlying medical complications seem to be the highest population of mortality...doesn't mean others cannot die...but fuck sakes...you play this off as if everyone is going to die.
Beaumont had a Doc responsible for putting out false information that spread quickly...to a point he had to retract his 'ICU is filling up with 20 and under fighting for their lives'...this type of fear-mongering is out of control.
It will be MONTHS after this is 'over' before anyone has any real idea how serious it is, and even then...so many have gone untested, or only tested for the flu/pneumonia early on...my daughter had influenza A/B testing negative a few weeks ago...they never checked for Covid19...she showed all the signs, isolated, is back to stable/normal function...STOP ASSUMING you have the answer/ NOBODY not WHO, not CDC, not any doctor in this world has the answer yet...so calm your tits...isolate yourself, FOLLOW isolation recommendations and chill the FUCK OUT.
strong. very strong.
glad daughter is okay, too.
thanks XM...fortunately she's in the 19 and under range, regularly cardiovascularly active, contacted me right away, started baseline treatment to contain the situation, took her to the family physician, answered all the questions, started albuterol treatment, inhaler support, Z-pack, and within a week normalized with a nagging cough...three weeks out, she is normal health.
March 22nd, 2020 at 12:35 AM ^
This theory is currently unprovable, and I think it's unlikely to be the case, but you're not the only one who has thought this, and it's not crazy people who have thought it. There's a lot of "noise" in the statistics right now, and "it's already gone around" would be a scenario that would help explain some of that noise. And what you describe here certainly sounds like what we hear for Covid-19. And I'm attracted to this theory, because it could mean that things aren't quite as dire as they seem. But...
One thing that can't be explained easily is Italy, which is a disaster right now. Over 2000 dead in the last four days.
This. The death rate in Italy is very high, right now of cases that had an outcome, 56% (6072 people) recovered and 44% (4825 people) died. That is insanity, and way different than the 1-2% that people have claimed. The only way this would be a 1-2% death rate is if the actual number of people that recovered is 250,000 - 400,000, meaning many had it, recovered and were not tested. So this could mean that the death rate looks higher because the number of recovered patients is incorrect, or is actually higher because the hospital system is overwhelmed with many more severely ill patients than can actually be successfully treated.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, there is no way to know the true actual number of recovered patients, but at the same time the hospital systems are overwhelmed and many critically ill patients are unable to get life saving treatment. Either way, this is bad, and anything we can do to try to improve outcomes is necessary.
March 22nd, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
There are 50,000+ cases in Italy, of which a certain number died and a certain number have recovered (the data you cite)
Still a very high percentage of deaths but certainly not 44%
50,000 active cases a few days ago yes, but active cases are still ongoing, some will die and some will recover. I was speaking of those cases that were finished and closed, either with a death or a recovery and discharge from the hospital. Of those cases that are finished, at the time the death rate was 44%. This is still the case today, 9632 (56%) recovered and 7503 (44%) dead. That's fucking bad man!
March 22nd, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
There are 50,000+ cases in Italy, of which a certain number died and a certain number have recovered (the data you cite)
Still a very high percentage of deaths but certainly not 44%
I read that Italy is in such bad shape right now because 25% of the population is 65+ and majority of that group are/were regular smokers. History of smoking or currently smoking, and this virus ...not good.
not sure If true but it seemed logical?