Anonymous SEC Coaches Say M Will Struggle vs. Alabama
As a followup to the previous Athletic article, Bruce Feldman is back with an anonymous survey of the SEC coaches. They think Michigan will struggle against Milroe:
“(Milroe’s) going to be a big problem for Michigan,” said an SEC defensive backs coach. “There is nobody in the Big Ten like him. He’s the best athlete on the field. He can run over your DBs and your linebackers can’t catch him.”
“I think Michigan is going to struggle to tackle Milroe,” said another SEC defensive coordinator who faced Milroe late in the season. “He’s very dangerous. I was not worried about the QB-designed runs. I was worried about when the pass is not there and he takes off and he has space.”
On the plus side, SEC coaches aren't scared of Alabama's RBs or WRs. More here.
December 19th, 2023 at 11:15 PM ^
Where is Lou Holtz right now?
December 19th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
The #1 team in the country will get handled against a team that was on the wrong side of a 4th and 31 against a 6-6 team away from not even being in this game.
Sure sure.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
I agree that Michigan is being overlooked here, but "Number 1 team in the country" isn't really part of the equation in predicting an outcome here. Sure, they are "ranked" #1, and advanced metrics may show that as well, but even the advance-ist of metrics cannot adjust for every intricacy. It would not surprise me if Michigan looked like the #1 team and won decisively v. Bama. It also would not surprise me if, like Georgia in 2021-22, Michigan takes the field and I quickly realize that we don't stand a chance.
Of the things that worry me, though, Milroe running is not at the top. He is going to run some and he will be reasonably effective at it. He is not at "Vince Young stage" though where he sees 3 or 4 moves ahead and can legit take one to the house. (Nor does he seem to have that top end speed). Also, this is not a Michigan defense of 2007. Sanistril, Colson, and Moore have the type of mobility that Michigan teams of old did not.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
There are three teams that you run the risk of just being flat out out-talented: Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State. Even if they haven't been at their strongest or didn't look great recently, if they put it together for a game, the opposition can find themselves in serious trouble (think Ohio State 2018 after plodding through most of their schedule or Georgia in 2021-22 after losing to Alabama). Even a bowl game like the 2019-20 game against Alabama where Michigan came out strong and then just couldn't keep up in the second half.
I know the talent composite isn't the everything, but Alabama has 74 4/5 star players on their roster. The average player ranking is 94.49.
Michigan has 47 and the average ranking is 90.51.
Now obviously guys like Colston Loveland, Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins, Rod Moore, Kenneth Grant, Mike Sainristil, etc. play above their rankings, but there is still just a raw talent gap that if everyone on Alabama plays up to their ranking, it will be hard for Michigan to win. It may come down to what it took for Clemson in 2016/2018 (Watson/Lawrence) or Ohio State 2014 (Elliot) to triumph: JJ McCarthy or one of Donovan Edwards/Blake Corum just going off for two games.
December 19th, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^
I think Michigan can only win this game by winning the field position battle. Given Bama's talent at DE and CB, Michigan will be able to effectively go downhill, but not uphill. 3 and outs are going to absolute killers. Punting is winning in this game if the punt is from the 40 yard line, but it is definitively losing if the punt is from the 15-20. Additionally, Michigan flat out cannot turn the ball over. We are going to have to Lloyd Carr the shit out of this thing and that is what makes me nervous. I think a game like Washington was going to be a loose up and down game where eventually the Michigan defense just got enough stops. The Bama game is going to be a game of inches and bounces. Need Final-Form Harbaugh here.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
SP+ isn't perfect but I would be very, very surprised if this is ANYTHING like Georgia in '21. Unless Michigan is the Georgia in that scenario, which I think is quite unlikely too.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
That was being led by a transfer QB from MSU.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
Texas, South Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Auburn all held Alabama to 27 points or less, but the #1 defense in the country is going to have a "big problem" with Milroe? GTFO.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^
Well M will just have to tackle him with their big ol' boys on the DL then. I'll be sure to email the coaches so they're aware.
It's kind of amusing that the only person nationally who seems to realize that what M has on the DL is what everyone thinks Georgia has on the DL is Bud Elliott from the Cover 3 podcast.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
It's weird that people that make a large portion of their income betting on games seem way more interested in knowing actual rosters and facts instead of listening to narratives. Bud is the most serious gambler in the college football landscape, which is why I like listening to that show. At least they put their money where their mouth is and keep track of their picks. Bud definitely bets a lot of his own stuff and does a ton of research.
EDIT: Also, if you are betting on Michigan, it's better to have everyone else really confident in Alabama. By the day of the game, the spread might have swayed even further and we end up getting more a favorable spread and better odds on the money line.
December 19th, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
The Vegas line is what has me curious. I keep hearing 90% of the money is on Alabama but the line is still UM -1. What does Vegas know that everyone else doesn't? Hmmmm
December 19th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
If Michigan can get contained pressure that forces Milroe to make quicker decisions, it will be bad for Alabama. The key will be beating the freshman tackle and sustained gap integrity of the center of the d-line on pass plays. Milroe is not a great player, a great athlete, yes.
Minter will win this game for Michigan. If he can crack the code with coverages that confuse Milroe, it will be a fun night.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
“Coverages that confuse Milroe.” This one of the keys to the game - and a result could be a turnover.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
It'll also be about maintaining gap integrity to not allow huge running lanes on broken plays. I'm confident that'll happen as well since our EGDE guys seem pretty solid at keeping contain (especially Harrell) and our DT's are good at collapsing the pocket while holding gaps properly.
At the end of the day, you can gameplan until the cows come home. Execution is the ultimate decider.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
Michigan vs Everybody
December 19th, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
Seems like these comments generally say a lot more about how conferences feel about their members than about the teams themselves. Our conference hates us, the SEC sorta sticks together. Isn't that how things have generally looked?
December 19th, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
I think the SEC thinks they are the best conference. So, if they couldn't stop Milroe, then nobody can. It makes them look good if Alabama does well. With the Big 10, that's not even close to the mindset. Most of the teams know they have zero chance of ever reaching the expanded playoffs, and they just want to see Michigan taken down a peg.
I'm sure there are SEC people that would like Alabama taken down a peg too, but only if it's by another SEC team. They all benefit from the perception of the SEC as the most dominant conference. It has definitely paid off for them through rankings, bowl invites, etc. If it weren't for the SEC dominance angle, Alabama probably wouldn't even have made the playoffs this year.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
So unless Harbaugh and the team defer to those opinions:
Go, Blue!
December 19th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
If Milroe was the "best athlete on the field," he'd have had more than 3 games with 50 or more rushing yards (Mississippi State, LSU, and Auburn). He's dangerous but he's not a Vince Young or Denard-level rushing threat and we can definitely limit him if the D line stays in their rush lanes.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
Funny how the SEC coaches go out of their way to pump Alabama up, while the B1G coaches go out of their way to dismiss Michigan.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
SEC coaches seem to think what a lot of SEC are saying. The SEC Championship was really the National Championship, and these playoffs are just a formality.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
Wait a minute, you mean the NC was not already played between GA and AL??
I thought the playoffs were just a scrimmige to prove the SEC is just better
December 19th, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
Well, its because Alabama football is a bastion of integrity.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
I think it's reasonable, even though it makes us upset.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
Bama getting the Bama treatment? Who would've thought.....
It is what it is, and in the defense of Michigan's critics, Alabama has an incredible track record in the postseason, especially under Saban. Michigan has won only 4-5 bowl games since the turn of the millennium. Do those seasons have any bearing on this one? Of course not. But that's the narrative that everyone will go with anyway.
December 19th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
Agree with as far as it goes: to be the best, one has to beat the best.
Bama is going to get the benefit of the doubt from most until someone definitively takes them down.
This is the challenge that brought players and coaches to THE BEST UNIVERSITY IN THE WORLD.
We bow to NO PROGRAM.
We embody Midwestern values of hard work, the pursuit of excellence, and AN ENTHUSIASM UNKNOWN TO MANKIND.
We. Are. Michigan.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
'Tis the season to talk yourself into what you want to believe. Why would I want to give a lot of credence to SEC coaches trying to promote their conference through a hollow horn like Feldman? They work their PR all year long and it shows in their artificially inflated rankings from pre-season on. We'll settle the issue on the field.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:21 AM ^
So SEC coaches think, because their interior D line and linebackers aren't that great, Michigan can only win if they use a lot of pre-snap motion. misdirection and run the ball with complicated gap schemes.
Gosh I guess we're doomed.
December 19th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
<Chef's kiss> Dude, can we get you quoted anonymously in response?
December 19th, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
I said this in the Big Ten "anonymous" thread. SEC will not eat their own. Ask SEC teams if their champion is better than your champion and they all say "Hell yeah they are, we are the best so our champion is the best" Ask Big Ten teams and they say "our champion sucks, can't believe they beat all of us"
Maybe the Big Ten buys into the SEC media bias also?
Either way, fuck those guys.
Go Blue!
December 19th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
Ask Big Ten teams and they say "our champion sucks, can't believe they beat all of us"
Unless it's OSU, in which case they'll line up in support, as they did during SignGate.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
Anonymous Michigan fan says Big10 Coaches, SEC coaches, and all the doubters can go fuck themselves.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
meh. if Michigan plays sound defense and doesnt overcommit they should be fine.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
No kidding this will be our toughest game. We will get burned more than a few times by Milroe scrambles. Just hoping we can stop him before he takes any one of those to the house.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
I wasn't super impressed with Bama vs Georgia- Georgia gave up a key touchdown on a fourth down long yardage play when Georgia chose not to cover the RB when he released late.
Georgia fumbled on their own 11 which & then held Bama to 3 points and but that field goal was the difference.
Georgia had a chance for at least 3 interceptions but didn't catch any of them.
Alabama's line looks weakest on the inside which plays to Michigan's strength. Bama's left tackle can be beaten and holds a lot, their RT was really solid- I didn't see anyone get the best of him
Milroe does look fast and hard to tackle- our rushers and linemen will need to be positionally sound.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
Alabama's gotta be happy this game is only being played on paper.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
This is my surprised face gif
December 19th, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^
Googled "Milroe 40 time" and "McCarthy 40 time."
Jalen Milroe ran the 40-yard dash in 4.64 seconds.
McCarthy said he ran a 4.7-second 40-yard dash when he came in as a "scrawny little freshman," but has most recently been timed at 4.48 seconds.
Shrug emoji.
Milroe carried the ball 140 times at 3.3 ypc. JJ carried it 57 at 2.6 ypc. (These are sacks included stats.) Naturally Milroe ended with more rushing yards and TDs. Of course, a third of those stats came in the LSU game.
JJ completion % is 74.2%. Milroe's is 65.5%.
There are two good QBs in this game. Quelle surprise, it's a playoff game. The other game has Ewers and Penix. Not too shabby.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
Michigan is in the perfect position to prove them wrong. Now go out and do it.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
So salty B1G coaches who haven't beaten Michigan in 2 years think Michigan will struggle and SEC coaches with a notorious superiority complex also think Michigan will struggle?
Shocking /s
December 19th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
I live down here in SEC country(youngest child is LSU Tiger) and the SEC is like a cult.They honestly believe that a mid tier SEC team is as good as a top of the pack Big Ten team.I would expect nothing else to come out of their mouths.I suspect that the M coaching staff will scheme up Milroe and spy him.CJ Stroud and MHJ are pretty good and they came out on the short end.Minter is pretty sharp.I expect a heavy dose of KM,BC2 and JJ in the run game and DE,and our big tightends in playaction.I have a feeling we will see a wrinkle we have not seen alot of all year.Bottom line OSU was a missed FG from winning the natty(they would have killed TCU}. OSU was so close to beating the unbeatable bulldogs without Stover and MHJ who were hurt most of the 2nd half.The SEC fanbase justs beats the drum and you have to tune them out.I wish with the 12 team playoff that all games would be played on campus up until the finals,Imagine Michigan vs Alabama on a frigid Saturday at the Big House.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
Very good and fair point about Georgia vs OSU last year.
And, Bama in A2 in December? The Selection Committee would make sure that wouldn’t happen.
December 19th, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
"Looks like Bama is the one seed and Michigan is the four."
December 19th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
Perfectly logical assessment to be honest. UM hasn’t seen anything like him in the Big Ten which to be frank has a lot of bad QBs.
Michigan historically does poorly in bowls while Bama is great. Michigan has a lot to prove on January 1st.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
Yeah I remember the same said about Tim Tebow back in 2007 after her won the Heisman before the bowl game with Michigan.
December 19th, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
Alabama has punked that entire conference for a decade and a half and yet still coaches in the SEC will bootlick them when they're up against another conference.
Meanwhile, Michigan has dominated for just merely 3 years and our coaches are running their best 5.5 40 times (aside from Bert who is trying hard to crack 6.0 next year) to rip Michigan up and down. Gosh, I love our conference...
December 19th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
Alabama has punked that entire conference for a decade and a half and yet still coaches in the SEC will bootlick them when they're up against another conference.
Don't they call that Stockholm Syndrome?
December 19th, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
Does anyone think the line will shift to favor Bama before the game?
December 19th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
Everything I have read says Vegas has seen heavy money placed on Alabama. I'm surprised the line hasn't moved more already.
Maybe Vegas knows something.......
December 19th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
Vegas knows that the SEC is overrated and living off reputation at this point so they're happy to take everyone's sucker money.
That said, it's hard to believe they'd want to be that heavily leveraged to one side in this game.
Meanwhile, Michigan is still the CFP betting favorite with Bama close behind.