Adjusted season predictions
Michigan sits at 5-2, and we've now got a little more than half a season's worth of data. With that in mind, how do you see the rest of the schedule playing out? Have your expectations for any of the remaining games changed?
Here's what I've got:
- 10/28: Rutgers - W
- 11/4: Minnesota - W
- 11/11: @ MD - W
- 11/18: @ Wisconsin - L
- 11/25: OSU - toss-up
Compared to my expectations coming into the season, the offense is certainly not as good as hoped. Despite that, I still don't think Rutgers, Minnesota, or Maryland have an offense capable of doing anything against Don Brown's D.
Wisconsin's offense probably plays more to the strengths of UM's D, particularly compared to Penn State's offense, but I just don't see the offense being able to go into Camp Randall to pull off a win.
The OSU game is always a toss-up. Despite the struggles of the offense, it's a home game and weird things can happen in rivalry games. I still think it will be an uphill battle for UM, but you never know in that game.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:33 AM ^
Wisconsin is a toss up for me too. Game time has not been announced yet, am I right? If for some really bad reason this game is at night, we have no shot. Camp Randall at night would be almost worse than Penn State.
I do however, like our chances during the day. If we can stop the run game, and not get blown up in man coverage, and get tons of pressure on Hornibrook, I think we could beat them. I said it before, If we can win out and have a good game against Ohio State, I will be okay with this season, granted if we win our bowl game.
As far as Ohio State goes, we have to wait to see how they do against Penn State Saturday before I say we will have a "close game" against them. I feel like their offense has been on fire lately, and we will have to bring our A game. O'Korn against Ohio State just gives me a really bad feeling.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:00 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
Double.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
For now I chalk them up as losses unless I see the development hit a pivot point where things really start looking smoother.
Mini might be tougher than we thought, but I'm seeing a win.
I'm thinking 8-4 this year, and if we see continued, linear development I'll be happy. If we see an explosion where this team starts to get it, I'll be thrilled. If we see them stay at the same level, and/or get worse, then I'll be disappointed.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:38 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:02 PM ^
Unfortunately, Wilson's offense will be fully downloaded in late November. That offense will be close to PSU's by then, and the D will be better than PSU's. Homefield and the vgaries of CFB rivalries will need to fall heavily in UM's favor for The Game.
WI is a toss-up...
October 26th, 2017 at 9:59 AM ^
Wisconsin is ripe for a rock fight type game where we might be able to pull out a win. They have also played zero top 25 teams, and the only team with a winning record they've beaten is Northwestern. The rest of their schedule is Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. If M doesn't crack the top 25 by the time they play, they won't play a ranked team until the B1G championship game.
I think we make 8-2 into Wisconsin, which will be a tossup. Unless we get a lot of bounces our way against OSU or the team makes drastic improvements by then, we'll probably lose that one by two scores or more.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:00 AM ^
7-5 at worst, 8-4 most likely, 9-3 is possible, 10-2 is pretty much pipe-dream status.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:01 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:01 AM ^
we win out.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
You define go big or go home. :-)
October 26th, 2017 at 10:33 AM ^
has become a gigantic pit of despair. I have to be optimistic about something.
Rationally I know we shouldn't have much of a chance against OSU. But we've beat them many times when they were great and we were mediocre. It's Harbaugh's time to pull a rabbit out of a hat and beat OSU, thereby salvaging the season and our sanity.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:05 PM ^
I love the take, but many of those (thinking largely in the 90s) came when UM won in the trenches -- especially neutralizing/dominating with OL. A victory this year would have to come in spite of UM's OL being dominated it seems.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:40 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^
If MSU beats Northwestern in 2 days, they will finish 6-2 or better in conference. They won't lose to Maryland at home on Senior Day and definitely won't lose to Rutgers.
If you care about defeating the "third place (or worse) in the Big Ten" narrative:
- Michigan wins out to finish 6-2.
- Ohio State loses to Penn State and Michigan.
- Michigan State loses to Penn State and Ohio State.
In this scenario, there is a three way tie for second place, one that Michigan "wins" (MSU/OSU would both be 9-3, whereas we would be 10-2), so we could technically say that we came in 2nd, OSU in 3rd, MSU in 4th.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
Beating Wiscy is entirely dependent on the offensive staff: if the first read is open for O'Korn, M can win. If not, we're fucked. Same for OSU with much less margin for error.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
I don't understand why anyone would consider WIsconsin or OSU a toss-up based on the results so far.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
Wisconsin doesn't have a dynamic offence like PSU and their defense isn't as good as ours. I can see this one being like last season. Low scoring and lots of punting by both teams. Wisconsin has the edge because Camp Randall, but we can win this game.
As for OSU, I'm hoping that PSU was a wakeup call for Don Brown and whomever the fuck is calling plays on the offense. If PSU pounds OSU on Sat, I'll feel a lot more confident about our chances in The Game.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:38 AM ^
Can't tell exactly what you are saying, but if you are saying Wisconsin is a sure win for us and we have little chance against OSU, then we are in agreement at least as to that game, as we will pound Wisconsin. As to OSU, I was in the crowd (grad student) when we played them in 1969 as much bigger underdogs than we will be this year, so I choose to believe, I choose to cheer for my team and I choose not to be negative.
Go Blue!
October 26th, 2017 at 3:29 PM ^
We played them with an OL—anchored by RT Dan Dierdorf—that was coached by one of the best OL coaches in college football history. To say we're lacking in that coaching dept today is an understatement.
We also had a punt return game that was worth a damn, but the unsung hero for us was our secondary, as we had 6 interceptions that day.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
As others have said, I think Wisconsin will be a loss because it's a road game. I expect it will be low scoring, but I will be surprised if UM scores an offensive touchdown in that game. Wisconsin could win 10-6.
For OSU, I definitely see UM being the underdog and expect to lose. But my point is that there have been other times (see the Brady Hoke era) where UM came in as a heavy underdog but played OSU close. It's a rivalry game, and sometimes weird and unexpected things happen. It's those types of things we would need to happen, but our defense should be able to keep us in the game.
October 26th, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
College Football has no real predictive basis so I root for the best possible outcome.
This seems to be a year where November Chaos will be high and 2 loss teams are not out of it.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
A loss to Rutgers, Minnesota, or Maryland would be a major disappointment. So that gets us to 8 wins.
Then I think we can play Wisconsin close because they aren't built offensively to attack our secondary the way PSU is. I'll call that one a lean loss due to the road trip though.
OSU is built like PSU in that they'll try to attack our secondary but I think Meyer plays too conservatively in big games and Michigan can keep it close. I'll call that a lean loss because our offense is so miserable. I really struggle to see our offense scoring more than 17 against Wisconsin or OSU.
So I think 8-4 is most likely, if we can steal one from Wisconsin in an ugly big ten field position battle we might get 9 wins. If Harbaugh gets us to 10 wins this season I'll recant all my criticisms.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:05 AM ^
I will stick with my original predicition of 9-3 in the regular season and then a win in whatever mediocre bowl game we go to for a third straight finish of 10-3.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^
8-4 with a decent chance at 9-4 with a bowl win. A loss to Rutgers, Minn., or Maryland would really cause a meltdown.
Losing the MSU game really mucked things up, otherwise it would probably be another 10 win season (with bowl) and that wouldn't look too bad in the end.
Pressure is building to win in 2018.
My preseason prediction was 10-2 because I didn't expect the offense to be incompetent.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
Brother, 10-2 next season with the @ND @MSU @OSU and Nebraska (down this year but usually not down long), Wisconsin and PSU with the O line we have coming back next year? In a pro system that requires complex QB reads and is thus doubly beholden to good pass pro?
9-3 will be generous next year.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:12 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:21 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:09 PM ^
Germans? Forget it. He's rolling.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:11 PM ^
OSU?!?!? DEAD!!!!
October 26th, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^
We're due. And I think Harbaugh knows better than most that beating OSU washes all the season's sins away. We beat OSU and I'll immediately forget about the MSU and PSU games.
Unless of course Don Brown is off interviewing for other jobs during game week. In which case just shoot me.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^
Not a chance. DB has no interest in an HC gig at his age. He's very happy here with Jim.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:55 PM ^
Which game have you EVER seen Michigan get a "lucky break" in to win? I mean I'm sure there have one or two since 1970 when I first remember watching us play but damn I could fill entire diary with crazy shit that went against us and only a few games where things went our way unexpectidly.
1969 - Bo has heart attack on eve of Rose Bowl #1
1972 - It pours the day of the Rose Bowl for the first time in forever
1973 - Two long field goals barely missed by Lantry. The Game ends in a tie and MIchigan gets screwed by B1G ADs
1974 - This time Lantry MAKES the game winning field goal. Wait a sec they're calling it no good? WTF?????
1976 - Ranked #1 the normally sure handed Jim Smith drops a sure TD pass in final minute. FG attempt at end of game wide right and we lose at Purdue.
1977 - Michigan stages furious comeback at Washington in Rose Bowl. With under a minute to play Leach hits Davis with swing pass and he'll walk in for the TD only to have him juggle ball and have it freaking SIT on his shoulder pad for a Washington player to grab for the game ending INT.
1978 - Charles White for the TD without the ball. From the the three yard line no less
I could go on. But I dont want to go on.
October 26th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^
Conversely, I can think of a number of times - all Ref based - where Ohio State got a game-deciding call that was a 50/50 judgement call that went their way:
- '74 "Missed" Michigan field goal. Ref could have called it either way, he called it for Ohio State.
- '16 4th down spot, Ref could have called it either way, he called it for Ohio State.
'02 Ref calls offensive PI on Michigan in the end zone and takes a Michigan TD off the board that was the difference in the game. You seldom see that kind of call in a big game deciding moment. Ref called it for Ohio State.
'06 Ref calls roughing on hit of Troy Smith right at the sideline when Michigan would have gotten the last possession. That was a judgement call. Ref called it for Ohio State.
These are right off the top of my head, I'm sure there are more. And don't even get me started about what happned in '73.
Meanwhile, I can't think of one single instance where Michigan beat Ohio State on a game deciding 50/50 Ref judgement call. Not once.
October 26th, 2017 at 3:35 PM ^
It was Stan Edwards, but that doesn't lessen the pain that's still there after all those years.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:19 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^
I was thinking this was going to be a 8-4, 9-3 season due to all the people we lost on defense and our offense was going to be our strong point due to RB, QB and a more seasoned line...boy was I wrong. However, I still think we will either be 8-4, 9-3.
I think OSU has us beat on a talent level that scheming cant overcome at this point in Harbaughs Michigan career. Wisky will be a toss up game due to it being on the road, we match up pretty well with them.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^
Pretty comfortable win over Rutgers, followed up by closer and somewhat ugly wins over Maryland and Minnesota. I feel like we can keep the Wisconsin game close because their offense plays into our defense's strengths, but trusting our offense to get anything done on the road against a very likely top-5 opponent? That would be a no. That game strikes me as being a 21-7 kind of loss where Wisconsin can slowly chip away at the defense.
Sure, throw the records out the window against OSU, but if OSU still has Indy and the playoffs to play for when they come to Ann Arbor, I pretty much expect a 2015 repeat where our offense gets completely shut down and OSU just runs wild the whole day, looking for style points by the end of it. If OSU loses to PSU and has only pride to play for, maybe it's closer. But I expect us to lose by multiple scores either way. The offense is a disaster with no hope for improvement in sight, and last week showed our defense is highly vulnerable to spread attacks. OSU's offense is arguably better than PSU's, and littered with far better athletes. We gon' die.
My guess is the Holiday Bowl where we're either paired against Stanford, USC, or the football gods would also be cruel enough to put us against Arizona. And you know RichRod would sleep maybe 5 hours over the whole month of December game-planning for that.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:36 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:32 AM ^
Call me a wuss but I'd rather not. Michigan has nothing to gain by beating him (congrats, you beat your former worst coach of all time) and pretty much everything to lose if they lose. He's a meh coach at a meh program. But he and his whole team would be ridiculously motivated to play us, and they'd all probably adopt the "win one for coach" kind of mindsets where they all rally around RichRod and play out of their minds. I'd have to question how motivated we'd really be in a game like that.
Losing to him would be another reason for this program to be mocked into oblivion for the next decade.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:05 PM ^
Agreed on all this. So we can book our tickets to the Holiday Bowl, then?
October 26th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
7-5 seems likely to me as well, beat Rutgers, split the Minnasota/Maryland games and lose to Wisconsin and OSU.