Adjusted season predictions
Michigan sits at 5-2, and we've now got a little more than half a season's worth of data. With that in mind, how do you see the rest of the schedule playing out? Have your expectations for any of the remaining games changed?
Here's what I've got:
- 10/28: Rutgers - W
- 11/4: Minnesota - W
- 11/11: @ MD - W
- 11/18: @ Wisconsin - L
- 11/25: OSU - toss-up
Compared to my expectations coming into the season, the offense is certainly not as good as hoped. Despite that, I still don't think Rutgers, Minnesota, or Maryland have an offense capable of doing anything against Don Brown's D.
Wisconsin's offense probably plays more to the strengths of UM's D, particularly compared to Penn State's offense, but I just don't see the offense being able to go into Camp Randall to pull off a win.
The OSU game is always a toss-up. Despite the struggles of the offense, it's a home game and weird things can happen in rivalry games. I still think it will be an uphill battle for UM, but you never know in that game.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:32 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:17 AM ^
Boat!
October 26th, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
I'd say 8-4 seems like the most likely scenario. Going into the season we assumed a win at MSU, losses at PSU, OSU, and Wiscy, and UF was a toss up. Well, MSU appears better than UF, so those got flipped. The rest still looks about right. But, it also wouldn't surprise me if we upset Wiscy or OSU, with OSU being the more likely of the two based on our road struggles. And, it also wouldn't surprise me if we dropped one of Rutgers, Minny, or Maryland. Being so inconsistent and playing so many close games it's only a matter of time until someone upsets us. At the least, I think we've got 2 mor wins in us which gets us bowl eligible and keeps the season from being a disaster while giving us more time to practice for the bowl and keeps fans not angry. At best we probably could get 4 more wins and finish 9-3 if a few breaks go our way and fans are really excited about next year. But, 8-4 still seems like the most likely scenario which is only slightly below pre-season expectations and leaves a lot of offensive questions still to be answered for next year.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
10-2.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:46 AM ^
I love your optimism, as it is how I feel about it and look at it. I am convinced that we will win the next game and all the rest of our games and continue to have those positive feelings until and unless the outcome of any specific game proves me wrong, at which point I move on to believing we will win the rest of our games. That, at least, is my approach since Jim Harbaugh became the coach. Even someone as optimistic as me could not maintain that attitude under Hoke.
We can still go 10-2. I will stop believing that when and if Michigan loses another game.
Go Blue!
October 26th, 2017 at 12:08 PM ^
it has been rough so far.......I say Harbaugh goes big and runs the table.
10-2 to finish and a NY6 bowl.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:39 AM ^
OSU isn't a toss up, but otherwise I agree with the OP.
Also, I think Maryland will be a night road game and we know how awesome those turn out for us, so shouldn't take that for granted either.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
I thought they could only make us have 3 night games, with Minnesota being the third. Is it possible they could also make Maryland a night game? I have a particular interest, as I will be going and even in the DC area it gets cold at night at that time of year.
October 26th, 2017 at 2:29 PM ^
Maryland will not be a road night game.
I mean, unless Michigan literally says they want it to be one. After the first weekend in November, TV/the host school no longer have the right to dictate night games in the Big Ten. The visiting team has veto power and you'd have to think we'd exercise it.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:49 AM ^
I thought 10-2 until yakety sax against MSU. We win the next three by at least two scores and steal one of the last two. A third consecutive 10 win season will depend entirely on the matchup in the bowl game.
Both the offense and the defense have had their bottomed out moments-- with one of the two hitting the sub-basement's basement.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:51 AM ^
I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to see us beat OSU, but how is that a "toss up"!? Unless O'Korn plays out of his mind and so does our O Line, I don't see that as a probable prediction. I mean, I want nothing more than that, but outside of it being wishful thinking I haven't see anyting from this offense that leads me to believe winning is probable. I guess there is always a chance, and that's why you play the game.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:58 AM ^
we'll end up unless I see some significant improvement in the offense over the next 3 weeks. Also, I need to see O'Korn settling down as QB to the point where he's finding receivers more consistently and making a lot fewer bad decisions. Then, we could possibly knock off one of either Wiscy or OSU somehow.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:00 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:17 AM ^
They could well have the B1G West all wrapped up by the time we play them so it's hard to say what that does to a team's mindset (gulp, we wouldn't know). It's hard to see them going to the CFP without winning the conference regardless of whether they have a loss during the regular season.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
win the rest except Ohio, unfortunately. Win bowl game. 10-3 again.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:22 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^
I seem to recall a lot of 8-4 and 9-3 predictions in August unless I am missing something, but to some extent these were drowned out by some even more optimistic predictions.
I think we can get to 8 wins with Wisconsin being the toss-up and potential ninth (I seem to remember saying 9-3 in August on my own show). I don't have a lot of confidence about the OSU game right now, although that game sometimes resembles the season for both teams in no way, shape or form and weird things happen.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:06 PM ^
nobody actually knows if theyre good and their manball outfit with another Generic Wisconsin Quarterback is precisely the type of offense we can obliterate. Now will we beat them is entirely up to the offense.
OSU is a likely loss at this point. If we keep it within 10 I'll be surprised
October 26th, 2017 at 12:10 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 1:58 PM ^
Last road game was the horseshoe last year...
This year we win when I travel.
jdon
October 26th, 2017 at 12:13 PM ^
spirit of this thread I'll contradict myself and say that at this point, Holiday Bowl would be a good outcome. One good thing about that, in addition to probably requiring 4 wins from here, is that I have been told that game will start at 6 p.m. local time and 9 p.m. e.s.t. instead of being the fourth game of the day on espn running to wee hours of the morning fwiw.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 1:08 PM ^
Even though OSU has owned the series since 2001, almost all of the games have been competitive:
Year (Michigan result)
2001 (L - Michigan entered as the better team)
2002 (L - OSU enterered as the better team)
2003 (W - Evenly matched)
2004 (L - Michigan entered as the better team)
2005 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2006 (L - Evenly matched)
2007 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2008 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2009 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2010 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2011 (W - Michigan entered as the better team)
2012 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2013 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2014 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2015 (L - OSU entered as the better team)
2016 (L - Evenly matched)
2017 (? - OSU will enter as the better team)
The only games that have not been competitive in this stretch, were 2003, the Rich Rod era (2008-2010), and 2015.
Additionally, it is rare for both teams to enter the game evenly matched (in part due to Michigan's downturn starting in 2007). This has occured just 3 times during this stretch. So despite one team entering the game as solid favorites, it is almost always competitive.
In 2001, Michigan was a heavy favorite at home and lost.
In 2004, Michigan was a favorite on the road and would go on to the Rose Bowl, but lost. That OSU team ended up in the Alamo Bowl.
In 2007, Michigan lost 14-3 to an OSU team that went to the BCS title game.
In 2011, a sanctioned 6-6 OSU team lost by 1 point on the road.
In 2013 a heavily favored OSU team had to stop a 2 point conversion to win.
In 2014 a heavily favored, eventual national champion OSU team struggled with Michigan for 3.5 quarters before pulling away late.
I don't think Michigan will beat OSU this year, but it will be a close game.
October 26th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
I think it's time we take a page from the book of Bo and spend a little time each week planning for OSU. Leave a few wrinkles in the playbook just for them.
We all had our issues with Hoke, and I'm glad he's gone, but I will grant him one thing. Michigan showed up to play every year against OSU.
No game is more important than The Game. The Game is everything. It should be treated as such.
October 26th, 2017 at 2:31 PM ^
*2011 final score was M 40 O 34
October 26th, 2017 at 3:22 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^
We've won how many of those recently? Methinks it is not a tossup and we are going to lose. Sorry to be a downer.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
8-4, leaning more toward 7-5 than 9-3. This is a very good Wisconsin team and it's on the road. OSU will be a comfortable loss. What I would like to see however, is that Harbaugh do in the OSU game what Franklin did in our game, and unveil a series of plays saved just for that game to give us a chance. If that game happens and it's business as usual from our offense, then I'll have to predict that Jim is going to make a change at OC.
October 26th, 2017 at 1:24 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^
I can't make a prediction on The Game until I see Ohio State play Penn State this weekend. They have killed a bunch of bad teams but lost in a game that wasn't close to a strong, but not elite, Oklahoma team. Impossible to get a read on the Buckeyes yet, in my opinion.
Otherwise:
- Michigan beats Rutgers by 10-17 points (game is close at halftime causing much consternation).
- Michigan beats Minnesota by around 10-17 points.
- Michigan beats Maryland by single digits in a close game.
- Michigan plays a very close game in Madison. Badgers win by single digits is my prediction at the moment, but I think we have a good chance. You just can't really pick us in a big road game until we do it at least once.
October 26th, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 2:55 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^
What's the prognosis if O'Korn gets banged up and Peters is in?
October 26th, 2017 at 3:37 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:14 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:18 PM ^
Bold move.
October 26th, 2017 at 3:27 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:31 PM ^
Me too
October 26th, 2017 at 4:00 PM ^
a good starting QB in Speight. Really need a young guy to step up next year.
October 26th, 2017 at 3:27 PM ^
College football is crazy but if you look at things from 50,000 feet the more talented, better team wins. There are exceptions (a la UM/MSU this year, Iowa/Um last year, etc) but in the grand scheme of things talent and experience wins.
Michigan wins next three and is a pretty good 8-2 with some encouraging growth moments but still too much bad shit mixed in. It is encouraging enough people get confident and think they can/will beat wisc and osu...wisconsin, though, is playing for all the marbles...they beat michigan like 24-10 and then OSU comes to ann arbor and wins big. Not a psu beat down but it's a bitch slap for sure.
I'm pessimistic...but I'm also a simple man...and the simplest most obvious answers are usually right. Michigan finishes 8-4. They beat the 3 teams they are better than and lose to the two teams they are worse than.
Hope I'm wrong!
October 26th, 2017 at 3:24 PM ^
7-5. Anyone expecting us to go into Camp Randall with this offense and win is smoking dope. The defense isnt all that great either. MSU racked up 200 yards on us in a half.
OSU will probably be a blow out, I think we keep it close for the half.
October 26th, 2017 at 9:02 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:27 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:42 PM ^
but we are just too young and our offense is just not very good to go any better then 3-2 the last 5 games. We win the next three and drop the last two to finish season 8-4. I do think we pick up a bowl win to end the year 9-4 and should have a good jump start to what she be a much improved season in 2018 as long as one of the young QB's is ready to take over.
October 26th, 2017 at 3:42 PM ^
Losses to Wisconsin and OSU to close out the season.
Last time we beat Wisconsin in Madison was 2001, and until we show the ability to beat good teams on the road, I don't see any reason to pick Michigan other than fan loyalty.
We're at a signficant deficit in talent/experience relative to the Buckeyes, and so far our coaching staff has not shown the ability to surmount that kind of disadvantage.
Then the piece de resistance, a loss to Stanford in the Holiday Bowl.