2018 OL two-deep?
OK, so this seems like a worthwhile distraction at this point... what do you think will be the make up of the Offensive Line two-deep?
Drawing from the following depth chart-by-class pool:
|
Freshmen |
Sophomores (c/o 2021) |
Juniors (c/o 2020) |
Seniors (c/o 2019) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
OT
|
||||
|
OG
|
N. Rumler '19
|
A. Vastardis*#
|
|
|
|
C
|
|
Replacement(s) required for exiting seniors: Mason Cole (LT), Pat Kugler (C). Despite his level of performance, it doesn't seem like UM can afford to not give JB-B a fifth year. Here's my SWAG, which leaves Bredeson at OG to bring Filiaga up at OT, but YMMV:
|
Starters
|
Backups
|
|
|---|---|---|
|
OT
|
G. Newsome
C. Filiaga |
J. Bushell-Beatty
A. Stueber |
|
OG
|
M. Owenu
B. Bredeson |
S. Spanellis
J. Runyan Jr. |
|
C
|
C. Ruiz
|
(a starter from above)?
|
It's looking like early playing time may be a key factor in securing Emil Ekiyor in the upcoming recruiting class.
October 23rd, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:10 AM ^
then I'd agree with you. But OL is too important to a passing game (and the running game) to be able to paper over a lot of faults even with a good QB and WRs, which aren't gaurantees. Certainly, in the scheme we run that requires time for the QB to go through mulptiple reads and then hit the perfect throw (cuz was ain't getting anyone hand-wavingly wide-open).
October 24th, 2017 at 4:40 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 6:27 PM ^
Notre Dame brought in a young OC from Memphis (Chip Long) to retool their offense. Are we willing to do the same?
October 23rd, 2017 at 8:02 PM ^
No shit: a young Michigan fan at the Grand Canyon back in like, 2013, told me that we would win a National Championship in 2018. Now, this was still Coach Hoke when Damien Harris and George Campbell were committed....but fuck me if that kid ends up being right.
October 23rd, 2017 at 8:40 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:11 PM ^
is that next year is not gonna be much better (if at all), so we're talking about 2019!
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:25 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:12 PM ^
Ruiz was the toppest of top tier center recruits -- if he's not at least OK as a RS FR, that's a big coaching problem.
Onwenu and Bredeson were also top recruits (if not as high as Ruiz) -- if they are not at least pretty good in the their third year, that's a big coaching problem.
Even at tackle, Filiaga and Steuber should be at least be slightly below average, considering their recruiting profile and the fact they've redshirted. Beatty or Ulizio, considering their experience this year, should at least be serviceable backups.
Far more schools than U of M have turned in OK to good offensive lines with less.
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:21 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:23 PM ^
Chuck Filiaga was a 4 star Army All-American Bowl participant. How does his recruiting profile say he should be below average?
October 23rd, 2017 at 8:18 PM ^
... not when Filiaga is an upperclassman.
October 23rd, 2017 at 8:26 PM ^
Doesn't matter when he's talking about. Nothing in his recruiting profile says he should be below average. Period.
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:24 PM ^
I was responding to the thought the OL will be "horrid" -- that's a ridiculous expectation, to me (and if it comes to pass, in year 4 of Harbaugh, we have major, major problems).
That said, based on past experience, I am not counting on anyone on our OL being good their first year playing, unless they are a "can't miss" (e.g., Ruiz).
Onwenu was a 4-star -- how's he doing? Bredeson was a high 4-star -- he's been fine, but that's it.
I certainly hope our 3 and 4-star recruits will be OK (or better) early in their career. But I am not counting on it. I merely hope our OL is serviceable next year (it clearly isn't this year) and the rest of our team excels.
October 23rd, 2017 at 10:21 PM ^
I get what you're saying and I agree mostly. I just think it should be pointed out that based on recruiting profile Filiaga is second to Ruiz in that class of ours as far as offensive lineman go. Ruiz hovered around #55 overall and Filiaga was around #99.
That being said, I think Ruiz and Filiaga will be the can't misses. At 6-6 335, Chuck is a beast. He just wasn't in as early as some. Ruiz is legit too. I always thought Bredeson would be best served at guard and Onwenu as a DT if he is quick enough, at least based on his build.
October 23rd, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^
about? It matters a great deal when he's talking about. An offensive lineman's second year in a program and first year playing is VERY different than his fourth or fifth year, especially a guy with this recruiting profile:
From his Hello post:
"he's extremely raw"
"Sometimes, he lets defensive linemen get into his body too much"
"WEAKNESSES: Pass Protection...doesn't have a true kick slide...Does not play with great technique"
"his technique needs to imrove as a pass blocker"
That sounds a lot like a guy that needs a couple years to be "good", nowhere near a can't-miss ready-to-go-guy (which are very rare on the OL). He could be playable next year, maybe even average, but almost certainly won't be as good as Cole is this year.
I actually think our sheer number of OTs we brought in last year gives us a decent chance of one of them being good. And if I had to bet, I'd say Hudson has the biggest upside. Probably won't be ready next year, but maybe.
October 24th, 2017 at 8:10 AM ^
Even 5* RS Freshmen OL are generally below average to average.
Bredeson and Onwenu were both top 100 OL, with better recruiting profiles than Filiaga.
Bredeson: #41 overall, 0.9790 rating
Onwenu: #94 overall, 0.9549 rating
Filiaga: #112 overall, 0.9448 rating
October 24th, 2017 at 10:53 AM ^
CF is not as good as you think and AS is better than you think. I would be fairly shocked if CF started at tackle for us.
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:25 PM ^
The OL will be better in 2018, but I am with the crowd that really think it is 2019 and forward that is key. By 2019, the OL should have gelled, and there should be enough in the way of quality recruits and depth to be able to compete with anyone. By 2019, you have an experienced QB (hopefully Peters or McCaffrey), and you have better WR production. With that being year 3 for Black and DPJ, plus others, you should be good.
On the defensive side, I believe that we should be reloading, not rebuilding.
October 23rd, 2017 at 8:28 PM ^
i'm just so sick of this "just wait N more years and all will be well". Especially when N > 1! How the heck do so many other teams seem to turn it around like that? It drives me crazy how there always seems to be some excuse.
All of that said, I would rather give Harbaugh as long as he needs to figure it out - because I suspect he will.
But, I'd like to enjoy offensive football again, hopefully soon!
October 24th, 2017 at 12:03 AM ^
don't have the kind of terrible recruiting classes that we had the year before a new coach and the the coach arrived. We had huge classes graduating in 2015 and 2016 which meant that we couldn't take many guys in 2014, and then the season-long debacle and wait for Harbaugh to come aboard at the end of that season hurt the 2015 class a lot.
We paid for a lot of experienced talent in 2015 and 2016 with not that in 2017 (and likely to some extent 2018). Then we'll have another bulge in upper class size in 2019 and 2020.
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:25 PM ^
Sounds like Newsome is getting ready.
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:29 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^
He was THAT good. But we have been way below average since his injury. The O-line has been in shambles for two half seasons.
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:30 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^
in 2015
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^
I think it's safe to say he would be starting at RT or LT and the line would be considerably better off for it.
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
He was decent and improving.
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:04 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^
I still feel that Greg Skrepenak was the most OL name ever. But that's probably just because I remember him as being the biggest, baddest lineman when I started going to Michigan games as a kid.
October 23rd, 2017 at 10:34 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 9:36 PM ^
Nolan Rumler !!!
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:44 PM ^
They GOTTA get coached up.
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:45 PM ^
Sophomores
(c/o 2021)
this is where the hope must lie- there needs to be 2-3 guys who can contribute and develop into good players b/t now and next Sept. Right now we're getting nothing but a bit of depth out of that class with Ruiz. Keep your fingers crossed with Newsome and we might be in business, as the kids say.
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:52 PM ^
IF Newsome is able to make it back to the field healthy then its time for Tim Drevno and Greg Frey (particularly Drevno) to earn their paychecks next year.
If Drevno can't produce an above-average, near elite O-Line with a healthy Newsome and upper-classmen Guards in Bredenson and Onwenu, then I personally, totally subjectively and way over dramatically will be convinced Michigan is doomed to mediocrity for all eternity. For crying out loud if Newsome comes back (he posted a Twitter video of his conditioning running sprints a few weeks ago) then Drevno needs to (a) take Caesar Ruiz, the most polished Center propsect in years per 247, and develop him into an above-average starter and hit on one of 7(?) chances for the RT spot.
If Drevno is still around next year, it's time to put up or shut up and develop an elite offensive line.
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:11 PM ^
This year’s OL is well below average. Best case, next season they are merely average. Units just don’t make a leap from awful to above average, let alone a jump to near elite.
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:52 PM ^
I am by no means knocking this team - I feel 9 wins is the ceiling, as tough of a pill that is to swallow... this is just a function of a developing OLine.
Elite takes you to playoff considerations but average next year might get us to the next level, at least.
Building from the rubble Hoke left takes time and patience. At least we have a coach like Harbaugh who said to his staff when he arrived, I believe, “we have to get this right” (credit JUB)
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:58 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 8:07 PM ^
It is going to take divine intervention to win at Wisconsin?
October 23rd, 2017 at 10:13 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 11:36 PM ^
but the one thing about Wisconsin that tends to be in UM's favor is the offense the Badgers have. Yeah, PSU torched this defense but that was a heck of a game plan by their OC. Wisconsin is more line it up and try to run it down your throat with some passing mixed in. I'm holding out to some hope the game in Camp Randall is more of a slugfest and UM can figure out a way to cobble enough points together to win. The odds aren't great but even I've felt that of the 3 big games - PSU, Wisky and OSU, that Wisky has been the more realistic chance to pull off the upset.
October 23rd, 2017 at 10:52 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 8:10 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 8:47 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:47 PM ^
Oh really? Units don't get better over a year? What is your historical data to prove this?
October 23rd, 2017 at 10:21 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:04 AM ^
dumpster fire in 2014 (89th) to above average in 2015 (38th).
Of course, two big things responsible for that
1) a Nussmeier to Fisch/Drevno/Harbaugh effect which was a big upgrade
2) A fairly talented but very young OL returned four starters and the only one to leave (Miller) was replaced by an NFL center (Glasgow who moved to C) which made room for Magnuson to move to RT as a third year guy. That line was certain to get better and did get a lot better.
Our line next year is far from certain to get better, and easily could be worse, as we'll be losing two seniors who are pretty good and replacing them with two second year players that to date have never seen the field.
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:54 PM ^