12/3/2022 – Michigan 43, Purdue 22 – 13-0, 9-0 Big Ten, Big Ten Champions

After Will Johnson's second interception my twitter feed had consecutive tweets that were literally "Will Johnson has arrived."

One was in all caps.

It may have been last week when Will Johnson arrived since he started against Ohio State and your Will Johnson-related memories of that game do not exist. Johnson took 70 snaps against the Buckeyes and he did not get dunked on once. But there's arriving quietly, like an offensive lineman who refines his assignments, and then there's going Fury Road on a version of Aidan O'Connell with glowing eyes and electricity coruscating down his forearms. Johnson has now arrived, loudly. He has a hype man. It is the internet.

It is a late-season cliché to say that freshmen are no longer freshmen. Sometimes this is not true because the freshman in question is completely the wrong size or just doesn't have it yet. You cannot assert that CJ Stokes is no longer a freshman. But you can for Will Johnson. You can for Colston Loveland. You can for Mason Graham.

Meanwhile in the realm of no longer sophomores: Donovan Edwards seems fully leveled up from last year's pad-seeker into this year's slashing missile, and we have answers about what happens when you put a game on JJ McCarthy's arm. McCarthy made one very bad mistake in this game, because he is not a 35-year-old All Pro yet. He also threw enough dead on downfield balls that everyone looking at the box score this morning can't believe he only had 17 pass attempts.

Going into the Ohio State game Michigan had questions. A wonky passing game, an injured star, a looming matchup against a real quarterback. In each case they had a player step up. The questions are no longer whether Michigan can. It is now merely whether they will.

---------------------------------------------

[Patrick Barron]

Mix in the rapidly-arriving youth with Ronnie Bell, Mazi Smith, Jake Moody, Brad Robbins, and Luke Schoonmaker--guys who took the long way around to get here—and you stand here, atop the Big Ten for the second straight year. This feels different, though. Last year the OSU win was shocking but a clear example of OSU dysfunction catching up to them. This year it eventually became clear they were trying to catch up to Michigan.

Last year Michigan entered a game against Georgia's generational defense more in hope than expectation that success would follow. It didn't take long to cast Michigan as a team not on UGA's level, one just hoping to stay in contact with a series of breaks. Upset minded. This year they'll enter the semifinal touchdown favorites against a feisty, insane TCU team that will enter hoping that they can keep up with Michigan's pounding ground game. Maybe they will; maybe they'll find that they're in the same position Michigan was a year ago: not quit there.

Michigan is there, or at least as there as they're ever likely to be. They have their five star QB locked in with a five star running back. They've got a defense that doesn't have Aidan Hutchinson on it but maybe just got a star. There's no time like the present to recalibrate from "just happy to be here" to a team with expectations even at the playoff level.

Some got here fast, some took their time. But they're here, individually and collectively. Michigan has arrived.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Will Johnson. Two interceptions, but that's not the whole story. Both were superior coverage on which Johnson had the route dominated and picked the ball off without any assistance. Since he's a corner the fact that he had just two tackles, one a third-down stop a yard downfield and one a screen TFL, is excellent. Johnson did get hit with a deserved PI and missed a tackle on a third down catch and run but two turnovers versus two instances of 15 yards is a massive win.

#2 Donovan Edwards. 25 carries, 185 yards, 7.4 yards a pop, two exclamation-point runs. On the first he dusted a cornerback and burst for 60 yards that could have been 70 but he ran out of bounds curiously early. The second was a ridiculous slalom through six Purdue defenders for a 27 yard touchdown. Project "quit running directly into guys" is a success. Imagine if he had two hands and was the receiving threat he was earlier in the year.

#3 JJ McCarthy. Just seventeen attempts, and did throw a turrible interception on one of those. Still managed almost ten yards an attempt; broke the pocket and created second chances on many of those. When he stood in the pocket he delivered at least three DOs, one on a rocket TD to Bell, the others on perfect arcing balls between levels in the Purdue zone. Elite business not that far away.

Honorable mention: Eyabi Okie had a couple of impressive QB pressures. Junior Colson was everywhere and didn't seem to have much blame for the early hiccups. The Offensive Line had some pass protection hiccups but my early take on their run blocking is that they were dominant and the only thing holding the run game down was free hitters. Mazi Smith consistently pressed the pocket, forcing a sack that Jaylen Harrell picked up; Harrell also had a solo sack of his own as he spun past the right tackle.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

51: Blake Corum (#2 CSU, #2 Hawaii, HM UConn, #1 Maryland, #2 Iowa. HM Indiana, T2 PSU, #1 MSU, T1 Rutgers, #3 Nebraska, #1 Illinois)
32: JJ McCarthy (#1 Hawaii, #2 UConn, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, #3 Indiana, HM PSU, HM MSU. HM Rutgers, #2 OSU, #3 Purdue)
24: The Offensive Line (#3 Iowa, #1 PSU, HM MSU, #3 Rutgers, #1 Nebraska, HM Purdue)
22: Donovan Edwards (HM Hawaii, T2 PSU, T1 Rutgers, #4 OSU, #2 Purdue)
18: Ronnie Bell (HM CSU, HM Hawaii, #1 UConn, #2 Indiana, HM PSU, HM Nebraska, HM Illinois)
17: Mike Morris (T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, #1 Iowa, T1 Indiana, #3 PSU, HM Rutgers),
15:  Kris Jenkins (#3 UConn, T3 Hawaii, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana, #2 MSU, HM Rutgers, HM Nebraska), Mazi Smith (#1 CSU, T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, HM MSU, HM Nebraska, HM Purdue)
13: Mason Graham (HM Hawaii, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, #2 Nebraska, #2 Illinois)
12: Rod Moore(HM CSU, HM Indiana, HM MSU, T1 Ohio State)
11: Mike Sainristil (HM Maryland, HM Indiana, T1 Ohio State)
9: Cornelius Johnson (HM Hawaii, #3 Ohio State), Will Johnson (HM Rutgers, #1 Purdue)
7: Gemon Green (HM UConn, T2 Maryland, HM PSU), Jake Moody (HM PSU, #3 MSU, #3 Illinois).
6: Junior Colson (#3 CSU, HM UConn, HM PSU, HM Purdue)
5: DJ Turner (T2 Maryland), Luke Schoonmaker (T3 Maryland, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, HM MSU), Michael Barrett (#2 Rutgers), Eyabi Okie (HM CSU, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana, HM Purdue).
4: Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU, T1 Indiana, HM Purdue)
3: Derrick Moore (HM CSU, T1 Indiana)
2: Roman Wilson (HM CSU, HM Hawaii), Max Bredeson (T3 Maryland), Joel Honigford (T3 Maryland),
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Makari Paige (HM Hawaii), Rayshaun Benny (HM Hawaii), AJ Henning (HM UConn), Caden Kolesar (HM UConn), RJ Moten (HM Maryland), CJ Stokes (HM Nebraska), Andrel Anthony (HM Nebraska), Colston Loveland (HM Illinois)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Johnson's second interception sets up a short-field touchdown and Michigan clinches a second consecutive Big Ten championship.

Honorable mention: Johnson's first interception. McCarthy's laser TD to Bell. Edwards's slaloming TD run. Edwards busts outside for 60.

?MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Purdue's second drive is a mess of missed assignments and tackles, setting them up with a touchdown and announcing this was not going to be an Iowa 2021 walkover.

Honorable mention: Any of several different O'Connell throws that were eyepopping, or any of several Chuck Sizzle moments that were similarly eyepopping.

OFFENSE

A sojourn through time and space. JJ McCarthy only had 17 passes in this game—there were a few more dropbacks that did not show up in the box score because of penalties or scrambles—and probably half of them occurred after McCarthy left the pocket. On the one hand, this is a tremendously useful skill to bail you out of sticky situations:

On the other, an overreliance on that leads to diminishing returns in a hurry. Teams are going to start sitting on that and it'll get dicey fast. In a way this is good news, because then you get treated like Sean Clifford and defensive ends have priority one change from "murder" to "contain." But then you have to find the things that are there. The Schoonmaker rollout touchdown probably should have been a Ronnie Bell TD:

Better teams are maybe going to set an edge there and give you fewer opportunities to make it up as you go along. But… consistency of reads is maybe the only thing left for McCarthy? That and getting back the creepy underneath accuracy from earlier in the year.

When in pocket: yeah ok. McCarthy fired on some lasers in this game. The most impressive from a dang-that's-an-arm perspective was the Bell TD but that one saw a safety vacate and nobody underneath. Two other shots had to be perfect to fit it in and were:

There was a similar 40-yard strike to Schoonmaker in the third quarter. The DO rate in this one is going to be extremely high. Combine this version of McCarthy with this version of Edwards and maybe a guy to go get it when there's nothing there and hoo boy.

[Barron]

Beast. Not later. Now. Colston Loveland is Devin Funchess, But A Blocker:

It says something that this is (probably?) Michigan's first intentional go-get-it throw since Nico Collins was around. Purdue brackets that; they defeat it tactically. It does not matter. Six five, freaky long arms, ups, and wide receiver body control. Loveland's going to be a generational TE.

in there [Fuller]

Moose. Kalel Mullings's time at running back was not a one-off to get that jump pass off but appears to be more of a permanent switch. He did get a couple LB snaps in this game; he was more often deployed in that short yardage role some people (ie: me) projected he'd be in after an impressive spring game performance, and he looked like he'll be solid in that role:

That's just surfing into the endzone calmly. Mullings maintains the improbable size/speed ratio he had as a recruit and going forward hopefully the return of Hill-Green and the maturation of Rolder gives Michigan enough of a linebacker two-deep that Mullings can have his mooseback role next year.

[Fuller]

Numbers in the box == effectiveness of the run game. Some frustrating early moments on the ground turned out to be what's become the usual issue the past three weeks: one more guy in the box than Michigan can account for. When Purdue did not load the box this was the result…

…and when they did that was the result except the guy tackling Edwards did so much closer to the line of scrimmage. Edwards was able to dust guys at the line of scrimmage on both of his long runs, and this puts me in a dilemma about what to do when it comes to Rock Paper Scissors, our evaluation of who won the dueling playcalls. Usually delivering an unblocked guy to the back at the LOS is a win for the defense, but when it's a cornerback and he's on the edge trying to play force and come down on the back maybe it's not. The slalom run was more clearly an event where Michigan's blocking won against a playcall that was pretty good; Purdue was in a scrape exchange and shot a linebacker under the split zone block. But Karsen Barnhart and Zak Zinter clean house and the linebacker trying to fill has too much space to shut down:

Sometimes you have the right call on and still got beat. Purdue did that a lot in the passing game; this was Michigan's equivalent.

Still running out of bounds. The 60 yard Edwards run probably should have been 70 but Edwards sees a DB come over—one who even has Johnson blocking him—and goes out of bounds. This is weird, right? It seems clear that Michigan players have been told to save the hits when they're on the sideline, but the math seems wrong here. If you can get another ten yards you're saving hits on the plays you don't have to run to get those ten yards. I don't get it.

DEFENSE

[Barron]

An unstoppable throw-god kind of evening. Michigan made plenty of mistakes, particularly on the first Purdue touchdown drive, but let us pause a second to tip the cap to Aidan O'Connell and Chuck "Charlie Jones" Sizzle. O'Connell was dealing and Jones made a number of insane catches. I mean, not even mad (now that Michigan won):

When I typed "not even mad" I did not know which of a half-dozen different throws I was going to highlight there. Rod Moore got beat there, and then later in the game he had another completion of that variety, where you're grabbing a whole-ass arm of the receiver and it's still complete.

I mean, third and twelve, Michigan doubles the two main guys and O'Connell just deals to Sheffield:

For much of this game he was sporting lines like 18/21 with a couple of intentional throwaways. Some of that was Michigan, some of that was just a guy having the game of his life.

Woof, that drive though. The progression there:

• Barrett misses a tackle that would set up third and three, chunk.
• Barrett and Colson are standing next to each other so a RB dumpoff is a chunk.
• Moten and Barrett are now standing next to each other, chunk to Jones.
• WR screen to Jones has an unblocked Moten completely fail to touch Jones, chunk.
• Barrett and DJ Turner end up next to each other, window in zone, chunk.
• Wing-T "long trap" play, per twitter, on which Moten has a chance to get it down at 7 and whiffs; Barrett can't clean up, down to the one.

Just a wild series of consecutive busts and missed tackles. The screen was the most egregious; as I saw this developing I mentally filed this as second and eleven before a series of large red DOES NOT COMPUTE errors flashed in the ol' HUD:

This did not last. By the end of the first quarter Michigan was getting got in zone in ways that made sense, at least. Here the LBs split as one has the hitch and one is moving out on the running back. O'Connell fires it complete but there's an immediate tackle and the sledding is at least tougher:

When Michigan mixed in man coverage they generally got wins or O'Connell delivered NFL dimes; I wanted more man live but there is a limit. On one failed third down conversion O'Connell went to a guy who had run into Makari Paige on mesh instead of the guy Makari Paige was covering. You're not going to get away with that if you keep running it 80% of the time. I have learned the Don Brown lesson.

Slants, manned up. Michigan got big stops by anticipating Purdue slants. I've seen enough of Jones to believe that he's not a guy you can just get in the grill of casually, so this DJ Turner third down stop is a monster play:

And then there was Will Johnson.

not the plays mentioned below [Barron]

A play in two acts. The story of Johnson's second interception starts with a missed tackle. This one:

CB #2 to top

He's got it presnap, you can see his alignment to the interior. He just doesn't react fast enough. He's one step slow so when he comes through the ball it's already complete and he's not in position to tackle. The next time he downloads the slant:

Not a thing you can do every time, but the anticipation and the ability to get there is outstanding.

[Fuller]

An unfortunately excellent play. O'Connell's first bad pass of the day came with 1:33 left in the first half, but it was a doozy. This ball has two Michigan players in position to intercept it:

The guy who actually touches the ball is Turner, who reads what O'Connell is doing and falls off the guy in the flat to get under the ball. Great play! Also one that prevents Gemon Green from picking it off.

Jeff Brohm, man. The fake flea flicker was not new for Brohm. Purdue ran it in 2017:

Next up: fake flea flicker that turns into a real flea flicker that turns into a shovel pass to the back. It can get weirder. We have the technology.

[Barron]

An odd spot. Brohm deciding that down 17 midway through the fourth quarter was the time to start running a bunch was odd. It worked, sort of, but for the second straight week the analytics folks are going to be pointing at opposition success rate when a fair chunk of that is a drive that is not technically garbage time but functionally is, with Michigan just wanting to bleed the opposition down the field.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The double cross! Two things happened on Michigan's field goal that wasn't. One: Purdue had a MOVE call on. They shifted ostentatiously in an attempt to get Michigan to jump. Michigan did not. Two: Michigan had its own version of that on. Brad Robbins calls for the snap by gesturing to the center with his hand; on that play he did it twice in quick succession. The first drew a Purdue defender offsides, and the second sealed the offense. One point to Jay Harbaugh; that penalty led to a fourth and one conversion and ended up netting Michigan four points.

The fake punt. Can't be too mad from a Michigan perspective about Purdue converting that since it looks like the officials missed a hold on Joe Taylor and Purdue got it by inches at best thanks to Quinten Johnson coming up to make a play. I do wonder what Julius Welschof was doing there. He just sat at the line of scrimmage and got blocked; if he comes up and sets an edge at all Michigan certainly gets off the field.

[Fuller]

The weird punt. Michigan got a running into the punter call on the above event. This was not the correct call. One: Joe Taylor touched this ball. He touched it before the punter hit it but he touched it. Two: then Joe Taylor cleaned the punter's legs out, both of them. Brohm was livid and probably should have been if there was a flag; there should not have been a flag.

I'll beat the drum again: once a punter does something that is weird he should sacrifice his protection. It is unreasonable to expect a defender to be able to get after a punter who can run for it and simultaneously be able to control himself enough to not touch the punter's legs if he does indeed punt. Anything other than one two punt and you should be all the way live.

On punting safe. This has been a thing in my head for a while: if you're deeply unlikely to get a return and it's in a dangerous spot, why even have the punt team out there at all?

This may not apply to the specific situation Michigan was in. Purdue had a fourth and four at their 44, which is borderline. A ~45 yard punt, which is generally returnable, is landing at the 10. This is the gray area just before any punt you can field is not one you can return. But if they're punting from the plus 45, you are only catching anything 35 yards or shorter, so why not leave the defense on the field and replace a safety with a returner?

Why has Michigan decided to go to shield punting? For years this space has talked about Jay Harbaugh's decision to avoid the shield punting that most of the rest of college football has gone to, and a few weeks ago Michigan just decided "eh, what the hell, let's do it."

MISCELLANEOUS

[Fuller]

Some cards. I say this as lovingly as possible: there are some incredible goobers on this roster. The above is something my four year old would do, and I'm pretty sure this is Okie, Barrett, and Jenkins in the background of an ESPN reporter trying not to lose his composure:

You can do that? Uh that's not what those are for guys

[Fuller]

Operator error.

Meanwhile in chairs. Nobody has asked about the guy in the photo, and now the guy in the photo is recursively weird.

[Barron]

Andrew Kahn, you have been tasked with finding out about the guy with the hat. Or Alejandro Zuniga. We need to know about the hat guy.

The Brohm gives, the Brohm takes. Brohm's decision to kick a field goal down 12 with about 12 minutes left was a bit baffling at the time but it isn't completely crazy now that I've thought about it for a bit. With 12 minutes left you're probably getting two possessions and the field goal means you win with a TD + FG. That's worth a fair bit. Also a Michigan field goal means TD + TD is a win; if you don't get the FG and Michigan gets one you need TD + TD + 2PT just to tie.

The NFL fourth down calculator thinks going for it is the move, but it's not a huge swing in win percentage. Given how O'Connell was playing I would lean more towards going for it, but this is not a Ryan Day what-are-you-doing decision.

Meanwhile on the other end. Michigan had a couple decisions of interest. After scoring with nine minutes left to go up 15, Michigan went for two and converted to put the game entirely out of reach. This is one of those decisions that barely matters since the difference between being up 17 vs 16 with nine minutes left is probably 99% versus 98.5%, but Michigan did see the strategy pay off on the ensuing drive when Purdue kicked another field goal in a situation where they're going for it if they're down 16, and then an unlikely sequence of events could lead to a nervy onside kick.

I think Michigan just wanted to run their weird two point conversion play.

Michigan's other decision of note was punting on fourth and two from their own 33 with about a minute left in the half. This is not a spot where almost anyone is going for it but there's a statistical case for it.

Gus and Klatt saw a lot of this [Barron]

Our own NBC. Fox does not have playoff rights so it's a farewell to Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt, who did six(!) Michigan games and were more or less the house announcing crew all year. It is the nature of the internet to bitch and slander, so let's depart from that: what a pleasure. Gus Johnson sits in his basement shouting out prospective nicknames for everything and everyone until he comes up with the perfect thing. I am not even a little mad at him for deciding OSU is the "World Famous Ohio State Buckeyes." It sounds too good. As a person who puts together words, I mean… game recognize game.

Johnson's enthusiasm makes games seem big, and he's put together two all-time iconic Michigan calls in the last two Ohio State games. Last year: "O-JA-BO" after Ojabo's more or less game-sealing sack; this year his shocked, cracked "WIDE OPEN" on the second Cornelius Johnson catch. There's been a sort of Gus backlash developing over the past few years, which I do not understand in any way whatsoever. He's a worthy successor to Keith Jackson as the ever-so-slightly Michigan-biased guy who embodies what's great about college football.

Meanwhile, Klatt regularly preempts our clever takes about this play and that live, which is just baffling. I am annoyed by something he is saying about 2% of the time, which is a record low for persons who are not Robbie Hummel. He IDs stuff immediately and has an incredible strike rate for someone who's got to talk about a thing three seconds after it happened.

Fox's commercial rate is obscene and insane but the prospect of Johnson and Klatt doing half of Michigan's games for the foreseeable future is some compensation.

catch? dunno. STANDS [Fuller]

Speaking of. IF THERE IS A REVIEW JUST GO TO COMMERCIAL. I REALIZE YOU HAVE SPENT THE GDP OF BOTSWANA ON THIS GAME BUT FOR THE LOVE OF GOD TAKE ANY OPPORTUNITY TO GET YOUR ADS IN WITHOUT SLOWING THE GAME DOWN FURTHER.

Speaking of. IF YOU ARE LOOKING AT A REPLAY MORE THAN THREE TIMES IT STANDS.

THAT LITERALLY TOOK 4:32. YOU NEED TO CALL A GUY NAMED JOE IN SEATTLE WHO'S WATCHING IT ON TV AND IF JOE SAYS "DUNNO THAT'S CLOSE" IT JUST STANDS.

A good time for a long break. Michigan limped through the end of the regular season with a ton of important players dinged up, most of whom should be able to get fully healthy before the TCU game. An attempted accounting:

• Donovan Edwards played with a cast on his hand that is from an injury at least three weeks old.
• Luke Schoonmaker and Trevor Keegan played but may not have been 100%.
• Mike Morris was out but on the sideline and clearly not worried about anything in his lower body.
• DJ Turner went out with what seems like a cramp.
• Brad Robbins's punting has gone off a cliff, which makes it seem like he's got a nagging issue.

And then there's the grand bull-moose: Blake Corum had surgery. That has been declared season-ending by reporters on Twitter but nothing has come from the program itself. If it's meniscus surgery or something in that timeframe there is a chance Corum is able to come back. He's got a month, and that's usually the recovery timeframe. I am clearly just hoping against hope here.

HERE

Best and Worst:

Worst:  Politicking

We all remember 2006, when Urban Meyer successfully grandstanded for his Florida Gators to play in the national title game after Michigan narrowly lost to the Buckeyes to end the year.  His logic at the time was Florida had played a tough schedule and done well against it and so they deserved a title shot over a rematch.  It was dubious at the time but because his Gators crushed the Buckeyes in the title game it likely emboldened even more coaches to try this line of reasoning no matter how obnoxious it is coming from millionaire grown men who are throwing temper tantrums because they aren’t getting what they want.  But during the Big 10 title game, seemingly for no other reason than he had his iPad available to live-stream, the Fox chucklefucks gave Nick Saban a platform to argue that his Alabama Crimson Tide, who had lost 2 games already and had 3 other games come down to a single score, deserved to be in the playoffs after USC (and perhaps even TCU) lost.  His core argument basically broke down to “because we’re Alabama and we should be good”, a logic divorced from actual play on the field this year.

State of our Open Threads:

- We gave 229 fucks in the thread, which is certainly nowhere near the 449 we gave for the Ohio State game or the 406 we gave for the Illinois game. This performance is actually just north of the 224 we gave for the Rutgers game, which of course was another game with an uninspired first half. The regular season average for fucks given per game is 175, anchored by Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State, in that order.