Yesterday I answered a number of your burning questions for our summer mailbag, but there were enough good questions and enough long answers to break this into two pieces. Today we tackle the remaining questions I liked, starting with good old fashioned QB PARANOIA: 

 

Is there any reason to fear (sorry for being paranoid) JJ regresses like prior QBs in year 2 starting under Harbaugh given recent history? (-yoyo)

This question has been in the back of my head for some time, so let's take a look at the evidence about QB "regression" under Harbaugh. Harbaugh has had the following QBs return for a second year at the helm of the offense during his time at Michigan: Speight 2017, Patterson 2019, McNamara 2022 (Cade doesn't count as a returner for 2021 because he obviously didn't play enough in 2020). That's an extremely short list to begin with. You always have to be careful with concluding that something is a pattern based on the evidence when the sample size of evidence isn't large, but let's break it down based on our three player sample size. 

Speight in 2017 was definitely a case of regression, if we're comparing him to his pre-injury 2016 self. But I'm not sure how much regression there was compared to the post-injury 2016 Speight, who was also not particularly spectacular. He threw two pick sixes against Florida to start 2017, okay, well let me tell you about some interceptions he threw against Ohio State in 2016 (*ducks*). For me the story of Wilton Speight's career was the injury and how much it changed him. Before the '16 Iowa game, Speight had an average passer rating of 158.0 in the 2016 season. From Iowa through the Orange Bowl, his rating was 97.6. In 2017 up until his second injury against Purdue, Speight had an average rating of 121.9. He wasn't the same player he'd been in early 2016, but 2017 looks like a mere extension of late 2016. Does that qualify as "regression" overall? I'm not so sure. 

With Shea, I would say that his 2019 year was worse than 2018, though perhaps not dramatically so. His Y/A and TD/INT ratios were nearly identical, but a lower completion percentage. Shea was a bit worse in '19, but it felt so much worse because we'd been expecting significant improvement. He didn't make a leap, he instead got a little bit worse. Again, perhaps not massive "regression" but definitely not good either. Finally, with Cade in 2022, it's a very small amount of tape to go off of because McNamara was only playing parts of the first couple games before getting injured. He wasn't very good, but it's not like he'd been a worldbeater previously, and again, we're talking about 25 total throws that Cade attempted before injury. Not a whole lot to speak of and I think the best way to phrase this example is "incomplete" due to insufficient evidence. 

So what are we left with? One case of mild regression and two players who were not great, with injury mixed in and who didn't make it out of September of that next season healthy. If anything, this review of the examples should make you more terrified about an injury to JJ than regression, because that is anecdotally what tends to happen more often. But as for "regression" itself, I don't know. People can be as paranoid as they want, but I tend to think that the Shea regression was due to questionable work ethic (the infamous golfing remark) than something fundamentally wrong with the coaching. JJ on the other hand seems dedicated and a hard-worker. He's also younger than Shea, 20 during his returning starter season vs. 22 for Patterson, which perhaps means there's more physical upside to tap into that could mitigate any potential regression. I guess the long way of looking at this is it's a possibility but I wouldn't rate it as a super high one and using the past as a guaranteed roadmap for the future is only so useful with only three examples to go off of. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: deep threats, hot dogs, bowl games, and non-revenue sports]

 

[Patrick Barron]

Does UM develop a legitimate deep WR threat this year? (-GoBlue96)

The first thing that comes to mind with this question is that the problem with Michigan not having a deep threat for much of 2022 wasn't so much the receiving end but the throwing end. You may recall that between the Hawaii game and the Ohio State game, there was once or twice a game that JJ McCarthy would have a receiver open deep (normally Roman Wilson) and then either overthrow, underthrow, or simply just put it a little off the mark. Receivers were having some trouble getting open underneath, but JJ's deep ball was the main culprit in the vertical passing game for a lot of the year, up until the moment it wasn't. 

I can't predict the accuracy of McCarthy's arm in 2023, but I can say that from what we saw at the tail end of the 2022 season, if his accuracy is on-point, a lethal deep passing attack should follow. Roman Wilson's speed is deadly enough that he should be able to get himself open deep down the field at least a couple times per game. The mismatches Colston Loveland can create should be able to open up some opportunities if you have him run a seam route. Perhaps someone like a Darrius Clemons comes through and becomes a leapy deep target. Michigan doesn't figure to have a Braylon on this team, but there will be opportunities for a deep passing attack to materialize from the WR group, if JJ's arm can hold up its end of the bargain. It takes two to tango, but as we saw against OSU and TCU, when JJ's arm is in a groove, there's enough talented personnel to make it happen down the field through the air. 

 

If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself? (-L'Carpetron Do...) 

Somehow this question got asked several times in the thread, because apparently the ghost of Harry Caray is everywhere on the MGoBoard. I don't think I would eat myself in this hypothetical because I'm honestly not a huge fan of hot dogs. I'll have maybe 1-2 per year at a baseball game and that's just about it. Maybe you should've asked the same question, but with hamburger or chicken tenders as the subject matter instead of hot dogs. Also, you didn't specify if I am starving or not. 

 

[David Wilcomes]

What non-revenue sports are most interesting and exciting for the 23-24 year? Which ones have great fan experiences? (-OuldSod)

Always like to have one non-rev question in the mailbag. In the immediate outlook, a number of the prominent non-revs are in relative rebuilds. Volleyball has a new coach this fall, Erin Virtue, so I don't necessarily expect anything particularly phenomenal from them right away, especially coming off a rather lackluster season. The swimming and diving program will have a new coach (Matt Rowe), too, as will men's tennis. Both men's and women's soccer had subpar seasons in 2022, with the men's team in particular being horrendous. When both teams finished below .500 and outside the NCAA Tournament, that tempers expectations in my mind, though by no means am I a college soccer expert. 

Then you consider that baseball is going through a multi-year rebuild, losing ace Connor O'Halloran to his hometown Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB Draft and many of its veteran hitters to either the portal as grad transfers or to straight-up graduation. Tracy Smith showed some reasons for optimism in year one, recruiting well for down the road and cultivating a few promising freshmen, but it's a several year process. Softball is a similar story, with Bonnie Tholl just in the beginning stages of putting her mark on the program. After missing the NCAAs for the first time in nearly three decades, I don't anticipate that Michigan will be back to being anything particularly threatening right away. 

So that knocks out quite a few teams right there. The easiest answer for most exciting is field hockey, given the track record of the program under Marcia Pankratz. They've made the NCAA Tournament eight straight years, have won either the B1G regular season or tournament crown in four of the last six years, and played in the national championship game only a couple of seasons ago. When I did the fall sports recap, I noted that the team loses some key pieces in the midfield and their goalkeeper, but the the team's top three goalscorers/pointsgetters were all juniors or younger, so there is a core to work with this upcoming season. They will probably be quite good again. So that's my cop-out guess for now, but I'll give a nod to wrestling and women's basketball, which have been consistently competitive programs over the last few years. 

As for the best fan experience, a lot of the non-revenue sports can be really fun to be at but since I didn't talk about it previously, I will tell you that when I was working at WCBN Sports in undergrad, people always enjoyed calling water polo. Michigan typically doesn't host too many matches because their opponents are largely all west coast teams, so the opportunity to see it is limited. But the folks who called water polo always said it was a blast. They are generally all day affairs, multiple matches in a day, but it's a fun sport to watch and apparently was even more fun to call. I never did a water polo match, but I am here to pass along what people said. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Are we going to beat OSU by 30 or by 40 this year? (-Hotel Putingrad)

Well, 2021 was 42-27. Let's see, that's 15 points. Then in 2022, the score was 45-23. That's 22 points. So if I'm doing my math right and following the pattern, then 2023 should be a 29 point win. Let's go with 51-22. On pace to hit 30+ in 2024 and 40+ in 2025. 

 

Do you believe there is some systemic issue into how Michigan prepares for postseason games, whether it's CFP or bowl game? Bowl games are weird and you often get matched up with teams you hardly ever see, but it's odd that a program with the stature that Michigan has consistently underwhelms and underperforms in the postseason. Do you think it's all a massive coincidence, or is there something larger at work? (-Perkis-Size Me)

I've gotten this question before and answered it from the historical lens (read it here), why Michigan has struggled in bowl games dating back to Bo. The abbreviated version of that answer was A) Bo didn't care a ton about bowls and Michigan was particularly bad in Rose Bowls under Bo, which are pseudo road games for Michigan against the USC/UCLAs they were facing in the 70s and B) Carr lost a lot of bowl games late in his tenure, when the B1G was increasingly weak in the national picture. The Harbaugh angle I chalked up at the time to a multitude of factors, but let's delve in one more time since people are clearly still curious. 

If we go through the Harbaugh bowls, I don't necessarily see a common pattern. After the win against Florida, they had a string of bowl games from 2016-19 where the team went into the game incredibly deflated about their season after a stinging loss to Ohio State. In 2018, that included having to play without Karan Higdon, Rashan Gary, and Devin Bush, for example. The 2016 and 2022 bowl losses are similar to me in that they were games Michigan probably should've won against opponents they were better than, but where a combination of high leverage mistakes and random misfortune combined to do Michigan in. The TCU loss has been well litigated on this site recently, so everyone knows the rundown, and for those who have forgotten that Orange Bowl against FSU, Michigan completely suffocated the 'Noles on defense except for giving up one backbreaking big play every so often that was just enough to put FSU over the top. 

2019 and 2021 I pair together in that the opponent was way better than Michigan. Alabama was better than the Wolverines and managed to convince several future NFL stars to play and Georgia 2021... yeah, no need to explain that one. So we have two Michigan losses where they were better and a multitude of gaffes and bad luck did them in and then two Michigan losses were they were the worse team by a considerable margin and it was the curse of the matchup.

Remember this game? [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

In between we have that bizarre 2017 Outback Bowl in the rainy, muddy mess against South Carolina and the 2018 Peach Bowl with Florida. The thought linking those two in my mind is "who cares?". The Florida one in particular it felt like the team mailed it in, key players sitting out, not a ton of fire from the players playing in the game. It felt performative, Michigan had to be there but after the stunning demolition in Columbus, it didn't feel like anyone's heart was in that game. And South Carolina had similar vibes, but to a lesser extent. Perhaps more pertinent in that one was playing a broken Brandon Peters at QB. 

Overall, maybe the best way to sum up the Harbaugh bowl record is a collection of somewhat related small patterns (being overmatched, making a lot of high leverage errors, being put in situations where there was little motivation to concentrate) that don't have any broad relation to each other in the macro other than "Michigan loses". I'm a general believer that when bad things just keep happening, at some point it's on the coach, even if they're not related, but even if we just take recency bias and look at the TCU Fiesta Bowl... did Jim Harbaugh tell JJ McCarthy to throw two pick sixes? Or the hand-off to be fumbled at the goal line? The coaching staff made some tactical mistake but players made errors they didn't make all season. I'm not sure what to say there. There's no narrative that links every game together and allows us to pin it on a singular culprit. It unfortunately seems more complicated than that. 

 

When will Alex make an appearance on the MGORoundtable? (-nmumike)

When you can convince a 24-year-old with a remote job in sports and no children who gets largely free rein over what time of day he wants to work to wake up at 9:00 am.

 

[Bryan Fuller]

What does an offense that fully utilizes the talents of Blake Corum & Donovan Edwards look like? (-Chaco)

The short answer is playing with two RBs more often. Scott Bell's piece in HTTV talks about this and is definitely worth a read, so I'll keep my answer brief. Michigan didn't have many snaps on offense last season where both Corum and Edwards were on the field together. I'd like to see that change this season and it's probably the key to optimizing an offense with both RBs. Edwards is so dangerous as a receiver that you can line him up all over while you have Corum in the backfield. And Corum could theoretically run a route too, with that threat emboldened if you put some snaps of him catching screens or running wheel routes on tape. I have to imagine he'd want to give that a shot given how the key to surviving as an RB in the NFL these days is adding a receiving component to your game. 

So, playing with both Corum and Edwards on the field together is the key to me. Whether it's putting one in the slot and one in the backfield, or both in the backfield, keep the defense guessing and utilize both as weapons. I'd also toss in that part of this equation too is making sure both are healthy and fresh. Don't run them into the ground, especially on a team as good as Michigan and with players like CJ Stokes, Benjamin Hall, and Cole Cabana on the roster. Try to spread carries evenly between Edwards and Corum to keep both happy, but give them both the hook when the game is out of reach. Lessen the load so that they are ready to roll when the season gets important. That stretch from PSU to the postseason will determine the year and as they say, the greatest skill is availability. If Michigan plans on playing 15 games, an offense that fully utilizes the talents of Corum and Edwards is the offense that has both Corum and Edwards available for games 12-15. 

 

[Bryan Fuller]

Where do you think we still need to improve in the recruiting battles across the country? (-nmumike)

I don't think Michigan's recruiting "issues" (landing elite 5* guys) have anything to do with geography per se, so I'll answer this by naming a region in the country that the Wolverines don't seem to get many guys from: Texas. The south as a whole isn't really Michigan's strong area, but in the Harbaugh era they've gotten some kids out of FL, they had a couple good cycles recently in TN, obviously are now raiding Providence Day in NC, even Karmello English and Deuce Spurlock were AL + Amorion Walker in LA. But Texas, despite how populous of a state it is, hasn't produced much for Michigan. 

They've generally gotten about one kid per year from there and the guys they've gotten haven't been terribly impactful. Michigan got the Greens and Mustapha Muhammad out of TX in 2018, no one from 2019-2020, Ike Iwunnah and Tavierre Dunlap in 2021, Alex Orji in 2022, and Enow Etta in 2023. As of right now, Michigan has Blake Frazier in the class for 2024 from Texas (and he's a legacy), but nothing beyond that. Texas will never be an easy state for Michigan to crack given how far away they are and how many programs are recruiting that state, but there are also so many HS football players that it feels like there's a window for Michigan to perhaps do a bit better there than they've been doing. 

 

Which one of the mgoblog staff is most different than their on-air/on-podcast persona? (-Swayze Howell Sheen)

It's definitely Brian overall. David, Seth, and Craig are exactly the same on-air as they are in real life. Mannerisms, takes, volume level, all that. Same product. I'm generally a bit more reserved and on-message when I go on the MGoPodcast than I am in real life, but my persona on the HockeyCast is pretty much the same as real life. But Brian is definitely a much quieter person in real life than he is on the podcasts. On the podcast, Brian is the center of attention and a rather vocal character, but on the contrary, in everyday life I've been in many a rooms with Brian where he's more in the background and relaxed. Put another way, I've never heard him be as loud in real life as he is on any single hot takes segment. 

 

Every year there are assumptions on how the team will perform/ how the season will go among the general fan base that turns out to be completely wrong… what is a perceived strength most likely to turn into a disappointment? What weakness or shortcoming is most likely to positively surprise? (-Harbaugeddon) 

Another interesting question and one I hadn't necessarily thought of. For the strength turning into a weakness, my first thought is that it likely revolves around an injury occurring to a player of consequence, so I will hone in on areas of the team that feel thin. The obvious one is QB, but that's too easy so let's try a different spot. I'm going to go with safety. Michigan has two quality starters in Makari Paige and Rod Moore, but what happens if one of those two players gets injured? Next up is Quinten Johnson, who has made too many high leverage mistakes on defense and special teams to feel great about and then after that you're digging into the underclassmen. I liked Keon Sabb and Zeke Berry as recruits, but are they ready for showtime? There's a big mental component to playing safety + situational awareness and first time starters can be bumpy. There's definitely a scenario where injuries to the starting safeties bring some backups to the forefront who have prominent question marks in their profile, which could render the position a surprise weakness. 

As for the weakness into a strength, this one is difficult on a team that does not seem to have too many weaknesses. The only two are (maybe) cornerback and specialist, but I think I'll go with the latter. It's always tough to project college kickers but James Turner has put together two very strong seasons at Louisville, in between a not very good one. If he replicates one of those good seasons this fall, that's a legitimate strength, as Seth's data in the Hello post showed. And Tommy Doman was a 6-star(!) punter once upon a time. You can totally sell me on him being awesome. I still don't think a Moody/Robbins repeat is plausible but if Turner and Doman both hit reasonable ceilings, Michigan's specialists could be a legit strength of the team.