field hockey

Yesterday I answered a number of your burning questions for our summer mailbag, but there were enough good questions and enough long answers to break this into two pieces. Today we tackle the remaining questions I liked, starting with good old fashioned QB PARANOIA: 

Is there any reason to fear (sorry for being paranoid) JJ regresses like prior QBs in year 2 starting under Harbaugh given recent history? (-yoyo)

This question has been in the back of my head for some time, so let's take a look at the evidence about QB "regression" under Harbaugh. Harbaugh has had the following QBs return for a second year at the helm of the offense during his time at Michigan: Speight 2017, Patterson 2019, McNamara 2022 (Cade doesn't count as a returner for 2021 because he obviously didn't play enough in 2020). That's an extremely short list to begin with. You always have to be careful with concluding that something is a pattern based on the evidence when the sample size of evidence isn't large, but let's break it down based on our three player sample size. 

Speight in 2017 was definitely a case of regression, if we're comparing him to his pre-injury 2016 self. But I'm not sure how much regression there was compared to the post-injury 2016 Speight, who was also not particularly spectacular. He threw two pick sixes against Florida to start 2017, okay, well let me tell you about some interceptions he threw against Ohio State in 2016 (*ducks*). For me the story of Wilton Speight's career was the injury and how much it changed him. Before the '16 Iowa game, Speight had an average passer rating of 158.0 in the 2016 season. From Iowa through the Orange Bowl, his rating was 97.6. In 2017 up until his second injury against Purdue, Speight had an average rating of 121.9. He wasn't the same player he'd been in early 2016, but 2017 looks like a mere extension of late 2016. Does that qualify as "regression" overall? I'm not so sure. 

With Shea, I would say that his 2019 year was worse than 2018, though perhaps not dramatically so. His Y/A and TD/INT ratios were nearly identical, but a lower completion percentage. Shea was a bit worse in '19, but it felt so much worse because we'd been expecting significant improvement. He didn't make a leap, he instead got a little bit worse. Again, perhaps not massive "regression" but definitely not good either. Finally, with Cade in 2022, it's a very small amount of tape to go off of because McNamara was only playing parts of the first couple games before getting injured. He wasn't very good, but it's not like he'd been a worldbeater previously, and again, we're talking about 25 total throws that Cade attempted before injury. Not a whole lot to speak of and I think the best way to phrase this example is "incomplete" due to insufficient evidence. 

So what are we left with? One case of mild regression and two players who were not great, with injury mixed in and who didn't make it out of September of that next season healthy. If anything, this review of the examples should make you more terrified about an injury to JJ than regression, because that is anecdotally what tends to happen more often. But as for "regression" itself, I don't know. People can be as paranoid as they want, but I tend to think that the Shea regression was due to questionable work ethic (the infamous golfing remark) than something fundamentally wrong with the coaching. JJ on the other hand seems dedicated and a hard-worker. He's also younger than Shea, 20 during his returning starter season vs. 22 for Patterson, which perhaps means there's more physical upside to tap into that could mitigate any potential regression. I guess the long way of looking at this is it's a possibility but I wouldn't rate it as a super high one and using the past as a guaranteed roadmap for the future is only so useful with only three examples to go off of. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: deep threats, hot dogs, bowl games, and non-revenue sports]

A week ago I asked on the MGoBoard what people wanted to see me write about in the future and I got plenty of good ideas, which I'll try to fulfill in the coming weeks. The first and most immediate one that made sense were the multiple requests for a summary or update of non-revenue sports results. So this is the first installment of our non-revenue sports roundup column. Since it's the first one and we've got a ton of sports to cover, I decided to narrow this down quite a bit. Spring sports like golf, tennis, and track & field have quite a bit of the season to go, so I will get to them in a future edition. Today we're looking at the fall sports, field hockey, soccer(s), cross country (x2), and volleyball. 

Field Hockey

Let's start with Michigan's most consistently great fall sport, field hockey. It was another solid season for the team, although they had a disappointing early exit from the NCAA Tournament. Their regular season results were fine, 5-3 in the conference and tied for 3rd, with a litany of tough one-goal losses to elite competition (including those in the B1G). Penn State and Maryland tied for the B1G regular season title, but Michigan made a statement down in Columbus at the Big Ten Tournament. Always a competitive event in a conference as stacked as the B1G, Michigan ran the gauntlet and won three games in four days. They knocked off national #9 Iowa (5th in the B1G) 3-0 on Thursday, then beat national #3 PSU (1st in the B1G) in a thrilling 2-1 win on the backs of two goals from Kathryn Peterson on Friday. That propelled Michigan to the championship game on Sunday, where they beat national #4 Northwestern (tied with Michigan in the B1G) 2-1, dominating the 'Cats in shots and using two early goals to get it done. 

That triumph crowned Michigan as B1G Tournament Champions, the program's second title in three seasons and eighth overall. The strong performance in Columbus secured Michigan the national 4th seed for the 2022 NCAA Field Hockey Tournament, hosting the regional in Ann Arbor. That's where it all came to a disappointing end, a heartbreaking 2-1 loss in OT to #16 Albany. Michigan's Tina D'Anjolell scored the game's opening goal but Floor de Ruiter tied it with under three minutes to go in regulation for the Great Danes to send it into the extra session, which would end on Sophia Schoonmaker's breakaway goal. 

It was a brutal end to another strong season, but there is plenty to be proud of. A Big Ten Tournament title lives forever and is another mark of the sustained success of Marcia Pankratz's program. There were also individual honorees to mention: Katie Anderson was named All-B1G 1st Team, while Nina Apoola, Kathryn Peterson, and Anna Spieker were named All-B1G 2nd Team. Apoola also was the team's honoree for the Sportsmanship Award. There will be some attrition in the offseason, particularly among the midfielders and goalkeeper, but the team's top three goalscorers/pointsgetters were all juniors or younger, so there is a core to work with next season. Expecting continued success is merely the program standard. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More sports]

Things discussed:

• Seth & Craig come on early (Sam is out sick) to talk about sports analytics
• Softball seeding: Michigan got hosed, the Big Ten got hosed, Washington and the Pac 12 got hosed even worse. Seeding was absurdly SEC-biased.
• Committee based it on the Big Ten not playing out-of-conference games, punishing the conference for protecting their players during a pandemic.
• Will this be what finally pushes the northern schools to leave the NCAA and create their own summer league?
• Would they adapt Bakich’s proposal to make more money? Brian: plausible. Seth: no, because they’re a cartel, and the small schools are driving it.
• How scholarships work in softball/baseball now.
• Matt Campbell turned down the Lions, would you?
• Oregon State DT transfer, and Michigan’s Ravens-like front: will it work?
• Hockey: Brian crosses fingers that Michigan Hockey Summer leaves us at least three of the four guys about to get drafted.
• Hoops: Are they a 1 seed? Their floor is really high, a bit on Bufkin.
• Track is good.
• Let’s change the field hockey rules.

[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]