It's still slow, but:

Viewing Guide

Your Hey This Guy Could Be The Next Coach viewing guide:

THURSDAY

• BYU (Mark Pope) vs Duquense, 12:40 PM, TruTV
• South Carolina (Lamont Paris) vs Oregon, 4pm, TNT
• Dayton (Anthony Grant) vs Nevada, 4:30, TBS
• Colorado State (Niko Medved) vs Texas, 6:50, TNT
• Iowa State (TJ Otzelberger) vs South Dakota State, 7:35, TruTV
• Washington State (Kyle Smith) vs Drake (Darian DeVries), 10:05, TruTV

FRIDAY

• FAU (Dusty May) vs Northwestern, 12:15, CBS
• Baylor vs Colgate (Matt Langel), 12:40, TruTV
• Nebraska (Fred Hoiberg) vs Texas A&M, 6:50, TNT
• Duke (John Scheyer) vs Vermont, 7:10, CBS
• Utah St (Danny Sprinkle) vs TCU, 9:55, TBS
• St Mary's vs Grand Canyon (Bryce Drew), 10:05, TruTV

Jerome Tang and KSU got knocked out of the NIT by Iowa; Amir Abdur-Rahim and USF beat UCF to advance to the second round. Josh Schertz and Indiana State beat SMU 101-92 in the exact opposite of the CSU-UVA game. I would not be surprised to hear that Michigan is poking around Tang soon, because he is just about the only guy even vaguely in the hunt who isn't coaching basketball right now. I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that, hypothetically, unless it continues after guys start getting knocked out.

[After THE JUMP: how about them Rams?]

The Relevant Tourney Game Already Played

Niko Medved and Colorado State obliterated Virginia 67-42. I'm not here to tell you that defensive performance means much against the nation's #211 outfit but Virginia entered that game with the #7 defense in the country and has a 6'8" guy, Ryan Dunn, who's going to go in the first round largely because of his defensive ability.

That 67 doesn't seem that impressive at first glance but once you factor in the sludgeball UVA plays you get 1.1 points per possession, and the remarkable thing is that CSU did this at the rim. They hit 64% of their twos despite missing a number of bunnies and having other shots altered or erased by Dunn. They got zero fast break points, because Virginia, and still had the Cavs in a blender. Some of the passing sequences here are remarkable:

They did not follow the mid-major script to take down an elite high major defense—rain in threes. They only took 14 vs 39 possessions that ended in a 2PA or free throws.

It was a weird experience, being emotionally involved in a basketball game and thinking "I love this offense." Hasn't happened in a couple years.

But This Guy Hasn't Won In The Tourney

Everyone wants to run it back with Beilein, insofar as that is possible, and one crucial component of why Beilein was so attractive is that he had an Elite Eight and Sweet 16 run at West Virginia before coming over to Michigan. Literally no one I highlighted on the above list has been to the Sweet 16 except for May's Final Four run a year ago.

There is not a Beilein out there right now. Let's define "Beilein":

• High major coach.
• Ten-year track record of success.
• Coming off three top 50 teams at a school that does not have a lot of in-built advantages.
• Went to the Elite Eight and Sweet 16 in two of the prior three years.

The previous two S16s had these teams, grouped into a few different categories:

ALREADY POACHED

St Peter's, Providence, Villanova

Shaheen Holloway went to Seton Hall, where he's been NIT-ish his first two years. Ed Cooley left Providence for Georgetown, where he went 9-23 in year one. Jay Wright was poached by retirement.

SEEMS LIKE A BAD IDEA

Arkansas (x2), Texas Tech, Miami (x2)

Texas Tech's Mark Adams resigned after being racist at a player. Miami's Jim Larranaga is three years older than John Beilein; at that point just hire Beilein. The wheels really came off for Eric Musselman at Arkansas this year; they finished 108th in Kenpom and went 6-12 in the SEC. Also, Musselman is in the Hoiberg genre of coaches. The transfer portal he relies on isn't likely to translate.

EH?

UCLA (2x), Princeton, Kansas State, FAU

Jerome Tang and Dusty May are on the list. Princeton's Mitch Henderson followed up his S16 year with a very good Ivy season (24-5, 12-2, #67 Kenpom) and looks like a good coach but in 2024 Michigan cannot hire an Ivy coach without some intervening years in the real world. The portal could eat him alive.

Let's stipulate that if UCLA's AD is Dave Brandon level, sure, yeah, Mick Cronin would be a good idea:

If he's not, Cronin has a 20 million dollar buyout. And even Mick Cronin would come in for a bunch of criticism for finishing his career at Cincinnati with seven bids and no S16 appearances after 2012.

The only way Michigan can get a coach with a Beilein level of success in the tourney is if May goes on another run. Therefore we should probably be looking at other metrics, which I'd want to do anyway. To me the more important thing about Beilein is that he took over a 7-20 WVU team and steadily improved them; his final three seasons saw Beilein finish #35, #16, and #33 in Kenpom. Beilein's final three conference records: 8-8, 11-5, 9-7. Trust the efficiency margin above all.

Names

Uh… ask again later. Sam Webb brought up Abdur-Rahim in a paywalled post with some interesting details about his potential candidacy. He links this piece from USF's site which may be of interest. On3 doesn't really have much except an assertion that the giant buyout guys are not going to be in play.

I'd take Medved, DeVries, Abdur-Rahim, and May versus the field, FWIW.

Etc.: Exit Yo-Yo.