The difference. [Patrick Barron]

Offensive Football Bits Can Empathize with Penix Comment Count

Seth April 4th, 2024 at 2:30 PM

Last season was the final word on a uniquely American pastime, a maximalized rugby/soccer offshoot that began with a spring 1879 trial of Walter Camp's new rules, and concluded with its final championship last January.

Stipulating that Michigan is the final victor of college football's remarkable 144-year year run, like any good MMRPG reaching the end of original content doesn't mean we have to stop playing.* The winners of the first and last games of the mainline series not only plan on continuing to compete in the endgame, but are actively preparing to do so right this very moment. Let's see what's happening. But first the ground rules.

How spring lies: The vast majority of spring chatter is pablum. Established starters get praised for their leadership, focus, and offseason workout regimens. Obvious new ones get compared to the guys they're stepping in for. Coach pressers spin vagarities then name some dudes. Insider information is often more precise, but also usually planted.

How spring truths: Typical things that stand out as positives are players that every practice observer feels they need to mention (e.g. Sainristil), surprisingly short position battles (same), and young depth guys who don't need to get hypes but are brought up anyways (Loveland in '22). Typically negative heuristics are position changes, getting named after a younger player at one's position, battles that go on longer than they should, and when the questions they're answering aren't the more pressing ones we're asking (conversely if we're worried about backups and they talk about the starter it's a good thing).

Thus the format where we start with expectations, and measure what we're hearing against those.

Quick note on paywalled info. There is some, noted with ($). If I'm sharing it anyways it means there's either a lot more for subscribers at the link, or the info therein is so old it's already well percolated through social media and by that point it's better to credit the original source than pretend it doesn't exist.

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* [That only happens once the corporate overlords who bought the IP stack so many subscription fees, microtransactions, shortsighted DLCs, and too-disruptive in-game ads into the thing that the critical mass of people who were hanging onto the diluted product for nostalgia finally let go.]

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Quarterback

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Oh Denegal is having a bad week, is he?

The question we're asking is: Who's the quarterback?

But they're acting like it's: That.

What are we hearing? No thought of portal, Jadyn Davis has INTANGIBLES, and Orji is seizing the job because nobody can throw well enough at this point to make up for what Orji can do with his legs.

With Tuttle "working through something" the official channels are making every candidate equal. Tyler Morris:

Each one has their own thing that they're good at, I would say," Morris explained. "I wouldn't necessarily say there was one that's caught my eye, but there's been days where one might stand out for the day and then the next one -- the next practice, another guy. … Alex, obviously he can move. Davis just getting the ball to people. Jayden Denegal, he made some good throws. Jadyn Davis, I mean, he's made some great throws too."

Mason Graham seemed to confirm some insider notes I've gotten that Orji's running ability is standing out from a group that's been struggling to throw it to their own guys.

"I mean they’re all doing a good job — but Alex Orji can make plays with his legs ... You don’t know what he’s doing, even when he doesn’t have the ball because he’s a weapon. … when there’s somebody back there that can just run at any given time and you’ve gotta chase him down, it’s in the back of your mind throughout the game."

Brian Jean-Mary also noted that while he's been impressed by the ground game, the offense is "finding its footing." That is a nicer way of saying the first practices with pads have resembled an Iowa spring game via both Sam and Josh Henschke ($):

Wink’s pressures and blitzes “handled” the offense thoroughly. As for quarterbacks, we’re told that a lot of interceptions were thrown this week and there were some inconsistencies from all quarterbacks. … the offense needs time to get rhythm and gel, a lot of early pressure by Wink doesn’t necessarily allow that but it’s good practice.

When we do hear about a play in the passing game it's not coming from the pocket, which there's one guy who's likely to still be standing when not in it. Josaiah Stewart on Orji:

He can escape the pocket, but believe it or not, he can throw," he said. "People might not believe that, social media or whatnot, say he can't throw, but he can throw. I've seen him throw dots down the field, and it's worse when you just almost get there and he gets the ball off, and it's a touchdown. He's great at doing that. He's great at escaping and getting the ball downfield."

On their podcast (video) Henschke shared that his insiders think Orji is #1, Davis Warren #2, not far behind is Jadyn Davis, who is your presumptive starter in 2025, and then Denegal, who didn't have that great of a week. Jadyn "continues to stack good days."

What it means?

Orji hasn't grasped the offense but he's probably going to have to lead it, because his legs are a bona fide Big Ten-caliber weapon, and none of the other QBs' skills rise to that yet. Denegal shouldn't be written off for one bad week but it sounds like it was quite the bad week. Jadyn Davis chatter is meaningful for the future.

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[After THE JUMP: Focused on becoming the best on and off the field.]

Running Back

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A few pounds? Okay. [Paul Sherman]

The question we're asking is: Better investment: Kalel Mullings jersey or Benjamin Hall jersey?

But they're acting like it's: Should I get my Donovan Edwards jersey now or will it be the same price after he has 3,000 rushing yards and 40 touchdowns?

What are we hearing? Donovan Edwards has rocked up. Sam confirms Dono's the "best player on offense"($) and is having his snaps limited because of it. Other insiders say he's added 14 pounds, shaping his body to take a greater pounding and fight through more tackles. Henschke said he looks *Big*, and took knocks that he went down on first contact to heart. Also thinks missing last spring messed with Edwards's momentum from 2022, and he wasn't himself until PSU.

What it means? Nothing. Edwards is Edwards.

Receiver

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Tiptoeing past the obvious. [Bryan Fuller]

The questions we're asking are: Fred Moore breakout? Semaj Morgan fun stuff? Are we gonna wait till July and get a couple of 6'5" leapers in the portal or…?

But they're acting like it's… Can Colson Loveland play receiver too?

What are we hearing? The roster here was thin before Cristian Dixon moved to DB and the spring roster sprung without Karmello English on it (portal). That leaves three scholarship receivers on campus in spring, and if you want to count Peyton O'Leary as a fourth he's still only the second upperclassman.

The other, Tyler Morris, naturally, has assumed the title of WR1, and is giving the presser.

"Fred and Semaj, I feel like just being like the young guys, they were the freshmen last year and this year they've shown that they can step up. Semaj I feel like last year had a lot of the quick game stuff. And this year — I mean, I've told him, 'That was nice, but we need you to do more.' And that's kind of expectation. We need everybody to step up. Fred, we're going to need him to really be one of those deep ball receivers. Peyton, I mean, just he ain't played a lot. And we've talked about it too. We need everybody to step up and be able to do everything."

Fred Moore had some positive arrows last spring but isn't coming in for much talk yet, which feels ominous considering you'd think they be trumpeting their WR#2. Semaj is, but still mostly for his Sainristilian presence and general gizmo-sity.

So…portal? MnBR's Trevor McCue suggested former 5-star Michigan target-slash-USC and UCLA jumbo receiver Kyle Ford, but it's not like the program could tell us whom they're talking to when they're not supposed to be.

What it means? It's only weird to lose a sophomore who's behind two other guys in his class at his position when there's already a playing time crunch. And look, I get it: none of the passers are The Greatest QB in the History of the Program™, and you're gonna want to use skill position snaps this year for lots of Loveland, Bredeson, Edwards, Mullings, a 6th lineman, and some promising younger TEs and RBs. But you do still need some receivers. So it's probably portal in July for one or two guys. Which is bad.

Tight End

The question we're asking is: Who's the next AJ Barner?

But they're acting like it's: Who's the next Loveland?

What are we hearing? Newsome was happy to answer a question about his old outfit.

There's guys like Marlin Klein, who, you know, if we hadn't had the the top of that tight end room that we did with AJ being there and (Luke Schoonmaker) the year before, I'm assuming he's a guy who's probably already started 20 games in his career, because he has that kind of ability. He has that mindset, so I'm excited to see what he does. Guys like Josh Beetham, Deakon Tonielli, excited see what they kind of do now that there's more opportunity that room.

Lorenz said the positive reports on Klein are "well-founded"($) but added that Bredeson will "see an expanded role." Zach Marshall is spelling his name with an 'h' on the new roster, which lists early enrollees Brady Prieskorn (6'6/245) and Hogan Hansen (6'5/230) up 20 and 10 pounds, respectively, from their high school weights.

What it means? Klein came in for some hype last year, when he was listed up to 250, so I don't think they're just talking about the RS sophomore because he's the next scholarship upperclassman. The departure of Matthew Hibner (to SMU) after seeing time in the postseason probably means Klein was passing him. Sounds like Bredeson will be both FB#1 and TE#2, with Beetham and Tonielli next in line, but there's a drop after Klein.

Offensive Line

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How did we get here? Ich habe uns hierher gebracht, weil ich bin Spartakus. [Patrick Barron]

The question we're asking is: Who's OL#6?

But they're acting like it's: Who's OL#5?

What are we hearing? The all-new offensive line appears to be 90% set at (from left to right) Hinton/Priebe/Crippen/El-Hadi/Gentry, with Gentry still yet to fully win the job over Jeff Persi. Either way they're replacing a line of seniors with…another line of seniors, but those seniors are getting slaughtered by Wink and the national champs. Sam Webb($):

The defense has been flat out dominant. Last weekend's practice is the only one I've heard the offense has "won." The biggest reason for that is the starting defensive line has been unblockable. And when new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale dials up the pressure, and he has a lot, quarterbacks have had to run for their lives even more.

Hinton got the stage, and the resulting Zach Shaw feature that paints a picture of a non-football obsessed person born with the gifts and family to play it anyways.

Everybody who watches Hinton play thinks he has the potential become one of the best offensive linemen on the planet.

Not news.

But this spring, Hinton is as comfortable with his ability to close that gap as he has ever been. Slimmed down from 340 pounds last August to the high 320s, he feels faster out of his stance and more in command of his mechanics overall.

Roster news.

"I feel better at left," Hinton said. "Coming across from my left, I played left throughout high school. My freshman year of college I played left. Pushed to right my sophomore year. I always kind of felt a little awkward. I feel comfortable at left, I feel like I am back home. I am back to where I feel like I know I can do what I can do."

Positional news.

Josaiah Stewart reiterated that Hinton's seized the starting spot, but it seems clear from the context that Stewart's winning those battles. The Hinton talk got Balas framing this as "a lack of drive and determination"($), which reminds Balas of Gabe Watson, and reminds me of how Balas was down on Mike Onwenu for a lack of want-to right before he went GRAPES.

As for the rest of the line Henschke said you can write everyone else into the lineup in pen except Gentry. Henschke also mentioned a thing the staff have been putting out through every channel for two years, which is that they would have been comfortable starting Crippen the last two years had Olu and Nugent not fallen into their laps.

Behind the starters, Henschke mentioned Nathan Efobi had a really good week, looks the part, and is probably next in line at guard, and Newsome came up with Evan Link and true freshman Blake Frazier as the next two names for tackle. Yes, Frazier.

Newsome made a point to note to reporters that Mason Cole, Ben Bredeson and Zak Zinter all started as true freshmen.

Raheem Anderson was the next young guy named by Newsome, followed by Efobi and Amir Herring, so that's likely your second three inside, with the rest of the two-deep the loser of Persi/Gentry and Link.

What it means? Michael Penix, between teeth, labored breaths, and a towel, will be the first to tell you that not even the Joe Moore winners can protect you from Messirs Graham, Grant, Stewart and Moore. Add Mike Macdonald/Jesse Minter's blitzier sensei to the mix in the first week of spring practice and yeah, the pass pro's gonna look janky. I like hearing that Hinton's more comfortable at LT even if it's pablum. It does sound like Gentry's struggling a bit in pass pro, though, which will be something to keep an eye on.

Down the depth chart it seems they've got some guys in the 2023 class in Efobi and Link, and Blake Frazier talk at this point goes right in the "We're talking about you before we have to" bin. That also applies to Amir Herring to a lesser degree. It also means it's getting late early for Tristan Bonds (RS Jr), Dominic Guidice (RS Jr), and Connor Jones (RS So).

Comments

JonnyHintz

April 4th, 2024 at 9:14 PM ^

Fits squarely in with the “Don Brown 2.0” narrative. 
 

The prevailing thought is that Michigan was able to beat OSU and shut down potent passing offenses like Washington’s by deploying a complex combination of zone coverages and dropping unexpected guys into zones to mess with the QBs eyes. That’s MacDonald/Minter’s spin on the Ravens defense. 
 

From what I’ve heard, Wink preferred to leave his corners in man coverage and use the unorthodox front of the defense to bring complex blitzes. Sounds a bit like Don Brown. We’ll see how far he strays from his own philosophy and how much he incorporates the zone coverages, but for people concerned about the return of Dr. Blitz, this doesn’t help.

JonnyHintz

April 4th, 2024 at 10:15 PM ^

I don’t think anyone’s concern is that the defense won’t be good, the concern is more centered around going away from what has worked against OSU and a return to a more Don Brown-like philosophy which got us torched. Don Brown had phenomenal defenses until he came up against a team like OSU that could win the 1-on-1 matchups and create space before those blitzes got home. 
 

Who really knows at this point though, I’m merely pointing out the narrative that’s out there and the fact that talk like this coming out of practice only reinforces that narrative/fear in some fans. I personally don’t think an NFL DC is going to have the same issues with predictability and stubbornness that Brown had, but until we see this defense in action the narrative will exist. 

JonnyHintz

April 4th, 2024 at 10:10 PM ^

To an extent. The blitz heavy nature hasn’t been debunked. There’s no secret, Wink is more aggressive in that aspect than Minter or MacDonald were. He has the reputation as one of the most blitz heavy DCs in the NFL. So the narrative is going to be there until we actually get to see what it looks like on the field. Right or wrong, and the talk of dialing up the pressure in practice is only going to make that narrative continue. 

lhglrkwg

April 5th, 2024 at 8:25 AM ^

The official Michigan company line at this point is that nothing in NY matters, his exit in Baltimore was ‘mutual’ and the blitz-happiness isnt what we’re gonna see

I very much doubt thats true and it feels like hopium but I guess we wont know till fall. This article certainly sounds like he’s favoring the blitz

dragonchild

April 4th, 2024 at 6:18 PM ^

I think it’s an overreaction to media trying to make something of its own bullshit, which I’m saddened to remind folks of considering Connor Stalions was just last year.

Anyway we kind of have a first world problem because our D-line just might be one for the ages. When the best pass pro in the country couldn’t block these guys, it’s hard to tell what shape your O-line is in by watching practice.

njvictor

April 4th, 2024 at 2:44 PM ^

  • It's not super inspiring to hear that some of the comments around our projected starter are "surprisingly, he can throw the ball!"
  • The Jadyn Davis info does seem interesting though. If he as a true freshman has already equaled or passed Denegal, who was seen as fighting for the starting spot this year, then that's a great sign of things to come
  • I think the 15 pounds will really help Edwards and I hope the hype is real
  • WR room is a concern, but I imagine we can salvage a playable WR corp in the portal in the spring
  • OL is kinda wait and see since this DL is so good, but I assume they're good. This DL is gonna whip anyone they play and made last year's OL apparently look not great as well. Myles Hinton hype is interesting to watch

MaizeBlueA2

April 4th, 2024 at 11:09 PM ^

Disagree...if he beats out guys, we'll be fine

Tuttle gives us a floor. We don't the floor of the other 3, but it's likely bottom of the B1G starter.

If Jadyn beats out all of those guys, he's a solid QB. Not great, but he's at least plausible for most B1G games. 

After watching Kyle McCord and Drew Allar, we're not talking about world beaters to have a 12-team playoff caliber team.

 

And yes, it's not 14 teams yet.

ERdocLSA2004

April 4th, 2024 at 6:21 PM ^

It definitely seems like our concerns about the lack of portal recruiting we did are indeed justified.  It’s just a bad omen when we are projecting a starter because he can run, not because of how great he can throw. 
 

We really shouldn’t be surprised. None of these guys came in with a lot of praise for being passing QBs.  Disappointing that we weren’t able to capitalize on our success the last 3 years to secure an elite prospect via the portal or standard recruiting.  

RobM_24

April 4th, 2024 at 8:26 PM ^

And that's the downside of our NIL approach. Recruiting mostly high 3* and low 4* prospects and rewarding them with NIL down the road is great, but if you go a couple years without hitting on one of those underrated gems, it gets murky -- and there isn't a quick fix that you can buy (from HS or the portal) without going against your own NIL "policy".

MGlobules

April 4th, 2024 at 8:49 PM ^

Yeah, and three- and four-star linemen can be fantastic players as juniors and seniors, especially if they have good football minds. In QBs, you want someone elite.

I expect that if Orji is the QB, we will run through a lot of teams like water the first batch of games, and build wild expectations. Then it could get dicey.

I'll hope to be pleasantly surprised.

LDNfan

April 6th, 2024 at 4:37 PM ^

UM won its first Conference championship in ages without an Elite QB. There aren't that many Elite QBs out there and many who were thought to be elite on one roster were a lot less so when they transferred and cashed in their new batch of NIL dollars. 

Its not as easy as simply firing the money cannon...

alum96

April 4th, 2024 at 10:33 PM ^

These are said things for a returning NC team.  Imagine this crap coming from UGA

That said I am satiated with the NC and understand it was lightning in a bottle.  I am just truly mystified how a slew of MAC or bottom 3 Big 10 QBs are leading a (repeating) returning NC team.  All those misses on local QBs for 2+ years... anyhow.  Satiated. 

JJ kept defenses honest even if we have to do it the Wisconsin but better athletes way.  Who the hell is cheating the pass vs Orji a guy they didn't trust to throw once all last year. 

WR room is 1 injury away from being LOL as well.  But I at least understand that seeing the offensive system is not attractive to WRs. 

m9tt

April 4th, 2024 at 2:45 PM ^

If the offense is running at "Iowa spring game levels" and there's "no talk of the portal" for a QB, that's a huge concern.

m9tt

April 4th, 2024 at 3:14 PM ^

It sounds fun in theory and then you find yourself in a game down 10-0 in the first quarter and your whole offense is one dimensional...

There's no reason why the Orji-ffense can't be your curveball or plan B and bring in a one year starter who's actually a consistent passer... you get all the benefits of letting Orji run while also not allowing opposing defenses to run scheme for him for the entire week. 

 

 

m9tt

April 4th, 2024 at 3:36 PM ^

That's my entire point! If Orji's not able to both run and pass in his mini packages and prevent defenses from keying on just the run, then he's never going to be a functional quarterback to run the entire offense as a Plan-A, QB1. 

I'd love to be wrong and watch Orji be this Cam Newton tank in a power offense, but there's a difference between hoping that happens and relying on that development. 

Romeo50

April 4th, 2024 at 4:37 PM ^

The defense will handle things enough that a first , second read or run QB can grow early stacking wins. Texas lost its DT's and our defense beat the team that beat Texas. The offense will PSU Texas only with a better runner and the line will mature every game. I mostly hope Coach Tress can keep our guys unbreakable and available so the learning curve can flourish. Exciting and different football to be had. Mostly have concerns about recruiting WR's. 7 olinemen doesn't bother me.

m9tt

April 4th, 2024 at 5:42 PM ^

Last year, Iowa set the expectations for their offense at 25 points per game for their offense; they ended the year averaging 15.4 points per game, and that includes all their defense and special teams scoring.

Why do I bring this up? If your mentality going into a season is that the defense will carry you and your offense needs to do just enough to win, you will make it so much harder for yourself because you have exactly one avenue to victory. The good opponents will take away your first option and force you to beat them in other ways. 

Michigan needs to head into next year confident in their ability to both run and pass the football; to win both types of games: defensive struggles and offensive shootouts.

I think we all feel confident Michigan can win the 24-15 slogs against PSU and Iowa where it's all defense and field position... but it's the 31-24 games against Ohio State and Maryland where Michigan will need their offense to score on 5 or 6 drives in a game where you only get 9 possessions that I (and others) have real concerns

Romeo50

April 5th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^

Michigan ain't Iowa. There are functional players on offense and they practice against an even better defense which the last three years shows that iron sharpens iron. I see where you are coming from but these guys have earned my benefit of the doubt.  Sherrone pivoted early at PSU and did what won against the number one run defense at the time. Just add earth movers.

Remember Saban's comment about huddling and little time to change the defensive call? Now add movement of an extra lineman or two and quick snap when set maybe with a late motioning Tight End as well to overload and win a numbers battle. Thought I saw some of this but could be wrong.

 

gte896u

April 4th, 2024 at 11:38 PM ^

What are the parameters for "and pass"?  He doesnt need to be Cam Newton.  Josh Nesbitt would suffice just fine if it comes with Nesbitt's rushing production. We (GT alum) went 25-9 with him as the starting QB, and we never had a defense like the one Michigan is gonna roll out.

m9tt

April 5th, 2024 at 9:22 AM ^

1) That was 15 years ago, on a triple-option team.

2) You show me the Georgia Tech schedule that featured Texas, Oregon, Washington, USC, and Ohio State (and perhaps more, depending on conference championship games and playoffs).

3) If the goal is just to have a nice season, we can roll Orji out there and let him complete passes at a 43% clip like Nesbitt did, go 8-4 or 7-5 and then enjoy a trip to the Alamo Bowl. But if the goal is to win the B1G and make the CFP and compete for a national championship (which this defense is capable of), then Orji having a Josh Nesbitt season will absolutely hold Michigan back.

gte896u

April 21st, 2024 at 6:03 PM ^

Are you just a Michigan fan rather than a broader football fan?  The year GT won 11 games with Josh Nesbitt had Clemson×2, Miami, VT, FSU, and UGA, and all of those teams were better than USC and Washington are going to be.  Cmon lol.

 

And regarding the triple option offense, why do you think ppl are clamoring for Mullings and Edwards to be in the same backfield?  Its not to run Bill Walsh split back WC offense.

True Blue Grit

April 4th, 2024 at 4:01 PM ^

It's very hard to say.  We haven't really seen Orji run the offense as a true starter with the first team offense.  IF he can complete some passes, combined with our running game, he may be a lot more effective when he runs.  This last season, everyone knew what he was going to do every time he came in.  

I'm also skeptical we can find a transfer at this late date who'll be able to learn the offense and mesh with our current players by the opening game.  

m9tt

April 4th, 2024 at 4:23 PM ^

The logical part of my brain is screaming that if we haven't seen Orji pass yet, then it doesn't exist. 

When we saw JJ feature in a mini-package role during his true freshman year, they weren't scared to let him pass the ball (59 pass attempts to 27 rushes). When Denard featured as a true freshman behind Forcier, the coaches let him throw the ball 31 times to 69 rush attempts.

Orji currently has 21 career rush attempts and 1 pass attempt. Sure, he could be a good passer and we just haven't seen it or he could have a Josh Allen-type of development jump and go from a below-average passer to an above-average one. But is that a likely outcome, without any in game-reps or experience? Man, I'm not comfortable making that bet if I'm Sherrone.

As I said in the post below, you can find good dual-threat QBs at the FCS level in the Big Sky who are efficient passers and runners in power-run offenses... and players like Gronowski or Miller are winners with playoff experience, so I'm not worried about them being culture fits.

rc90

April 4th, 2024 at 4:42 PM ^

I don't want to pooh-pooh what you're saying, because I feel your pain, but JJ and Denard were awfully good football players. I don't think they're useful here as comps. We're hoping for something like Cade here in overall talent albeit in a different form, which is realistic, but, yeah, not a given from what we've seen and heard.