[Patrick Barron]

Football Recruiting Reset - 2023 Hits The Stretch Run and 2024 Gets Going Comment Count

Alex.Drain October 19th, 2022 at 1:50 PM

It's been a little while since we last checked in on Michigan Football recruiting, as the swing of the season has diverted attention from the future to the present. Luckily, not much happened in the meantime, as the Wolverines went a couple months between commitments, a span of time that was snapped by Kendrick Bell's pledge earlier this week. Michigan's bye week, coming with roughly two months to go in the main period of the 2023 cycle, represents a good opportunity to check back in on recruiting. The Wolverines have held several big recruiting weekends over the course of the season and now comes crunch time for the top targets. Today I will refresh your memory with the 2023 class, talk about the remaining targets, and then move onto some early 2024 discussion. 

 

Where the 2023 Class Sits 

For this part, I'm going to go position by position and list the commits with a quick description of them, much like the recruiting board (which will be updated shortly after this piece goes up). Click on each player to go to their Hello.  

Quarterback: 0

  • Michigan does not have a QB recruit. They put all their eggs in the Dante Moore basket, struck out on that (for a variety of reasons) and now are moving onto the next big fish in 2024 

Running back: 2

  • Cole Cabana (4*): The Dexter product is one of Michigan's better recruits of the cycle, an electric RB/WR hybrid who draws comps to the likes of AJ Henning and Curtis Samuel and is as fast as it gets. Having a great senior season. 
  • Benjamin Hall (3*): Burlier back from Georgia who Michigan took surprisingly early in the cycle for a guy without much of a profile. Having a bumpy senior season that does not inspire confidence. 

Wide Receiver: 2 

  • Semaj Morgan (3*): One of the earliest commits, the West Bloomfield product is a polished slot receiver who many recruiting insiders consider to be an underrated prospect. He's a leader of this class in terms of recruiting his peers. 
  • Fredrick Moore (3*): St. Louis area outside receiver who committed in the summer. Some questions about his straight-line speed, but he accelerates well and plays the position with zest. Performing solidly as a senior. 

Tight End: 2

  • Deakon Tonielli (4*): Leapy flex TE from the Chicago area who also plays basketball. Will need to learn the blocking side of the position when he gets to Michigan. 
  • Zack Marshall (3*): California hidden gem who has loads of natural receiving talent but will need to get stronger. Plays for loaded Carlsbad HS with elite QB prospect Julian Sayin. 

Offensive Line: 2

  • Evan Link (4*), OT: DC tackle prospect surprisingly chose Michigan over PSU, has good technique and a very high floor. Insiders have been impressed with their viewings of him this fall. 
  • Amir Herring (4*), IOL: Similar high floor guard prospect from West Bloomfield, always wanted to go to Michigan and plans to enroll early.

EDGE: 3

  • Enow Etta (4*): Borderline top 100 EDGE from Texas, already has proper size for the position as a strong and long pass rusher. Should be able to contribute early in his career. 
  • Collins Acheampong (4*): Raw and athletic CA prospect originally from Ghana, towering, long, and explosive. Flying up the rankings, he bought into Michigan's "transformational vs. transactional" pitch in choosing M over Miami. 
  • Aymeric Koumba (3*): Build-An-Ojabo French pterodactyl. Has the size and athleticism to be a dominant passrusher but is a sushi-raw project that Mike Elston coveted from the start. 

Defensive Tackle: 1

  • Brooks Bahr (3*): Long and athletic Chicago-area lineman that Michigan wants to build into a 3Tech. Also a former lacrosse player. 

Linebacker: 

  • Semaj Bridgeman (4*): Thick and physical Philadelphia-area prospect. Old school LB who may be better against the run than in coverage. 

Secondary: 0 

  • Michigan does not currently have a DB commit. They are looking for a very small class and thus have prioritized several targets who are going down to the wire. 

Athlete: 

  • Kendrick Bell (3*): Ronnie's brother, a Who Dat recruit that wasn't on anyone's radar until he began torching Kansas City HS football as a senior. Currently plays QB but with an intriguing athletic profile, Michigan is not sure where to use him yet. 

Special teams: 1 

  • Adam Samaha, K: Ann Arbor (Huron) kicking prospect who profiles among the best kickers in the 2023 class. Has been locked in for nearly a year now. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: remaining targets and 2024]

 

Nyckoles Harbor [247Sports]

Thoughts on the 2023 class overall and remaining targets

As it stands right now, Michigan has 15 commitments for the 2023 class and sits right around the #25 mark nationally, a far cry from the typical 8-12 range that the Wolverines find themselves in. This has happened for a convergence of several reasons that have been discussed many times in my recruiting pieces: Harbaugh's flirtation with the NFL, losing both coordinators, shuffling around positional coaches, a choppy rollout of NIL and an NIL pitch that turned off a number of recruits, and on and on. The 2023 class is going to come in below expectations because of those reasons but we've known that for some time. The focus should be on closing '23 out as well as possible and then returning to normal in 2024. 

When I look at this class right now, what really stands out is how varied it is by position. Some positional groups have a haul I would be very pleased with any year and other positional groups have flopped. QB is obviously the latter, but we don't need to go over the Dante Moore fiasco again. Linebacker and DT are also a bit disappointing at the moment and it's still a little early to see what happens in the secondary. On the flip side, I love the EDGE and TE groups, plus Cole Cabana is a stud and depending on how the final two months go, OL and WR have the potential to be strong too. It's going to be an uneven recruiting class, meeting expectations in some places and well below them in others. 

On that note, let's talk about the final two months of this cycle. As of this writing, Michigan would like to take a couple more offensive linemen, a third WR, a least one more DT, one more LB, and then pull the secondary together. That's roughly seven more prospects they'd like to get, so this class will probably be below the allotted 25 spots. It's likely a good idea to go a little light in '23 to save scholarships for a larger and more robust '24 class. 

Below is a quick rundown of remaining targets at the positions I listed above: 

Wide receiver: 

Offensive Line

  • Nathan Efobi (4*), IOL: Guard prospect who On3 rates as a top 150 prospects but others have as a 3*. Visited in September and has an OV soon. Michigan holds all the predictions/crystal balls. 
  • DJ Chester (4*), IOL: Planning to visit for MSU but seems like a longshot as Michigan is the only non-southern school in on this Georgia native. 
  • Caleb Lomu (4*), OT: Visited in the summer but not a ton of buzz since then. Assumption is he stays west but keep an eye if he makes a return visit. 
  • Spencer Fano (4*), OT: Visiting for the MSU game but this west prospect seems like a stretch given his childhood Oregon fandom and Mormon faith (hello, BYU). 
  • Taliafi Ta'ala (4*), OT: Appears to be a fallback tackle option if Lomu and Fano go elsewhere. Though another west kid, he's interested in moving east and there's little competition of note. Gettable if Michigan pushes ($). 
  • Nick Fattig (3*), OT: Texas Tech commit who is flippable if Michigan pushes. Have not mounted a campaign yet. 

Defensive tackle

Linebacker

  • Desirrio Chiles (3*): Who Dat 3* from the Jacksonville area that Michigan uncovered recently and is starting to evaluate more seriously. 
  • Hayden Moore (3*): Hard commit to Nebraska who Michigan is trying to jar free in the aftermath of the Frost firing. Wolverines liked him before he committed to the Huskers. 
  • Arrion Carter (4*): Tennessee late riser who has jumped from 2* to 4* status and drawn lots of interest. Canceled his Michigan visit recently and with Alabama involved, seems unlikely.

Secondary

  • Jyaire Hill (4*): Chicago-area DB who is the subject of a lengthy and tight recruiting battle between Michigan and Illinois. Going to go down to the wire most likely. 
  • Chris Peal (4*): Michigan made up a lot of ground for this Charlotte DB prospect and the race boiled down to Michigan vs. Georgia, but predictions indicate the Dawgs have the edge. 

Athletes

  • Nyckoles Harbor (5*): Freakishly athletic prospect who is part-football player, part-track star. Michigan wanted him at DE but that may conflict with his Olympic dreams, so WR/TE may be more likely. Tight battle with South Carolina and LSU but some reason to think Michigan may be a nose ahead ($). Lengthy battle unfolding. 

Scanning this remaining board, a reasonable best-case scenario involves winning tight battles for English, McDonald, and Hill + adding Efobi and one of the tackles to round out the OL class and then snatching Harbor as the crown jewel. That would require pretty much everything breaking Michigan's way, but then again we're looking at a season where there seems to be a clear path to 11-0 and the Wolverines had just about everything break their way last year with the '22 class, so it's totally possible. That kind of finish would shoot Michigan up into the teens and within shouting distance of their typical finish. Perhaps a more reasonable expectation is the OL rounding out and then going only 2/4 on the big fish battles. 

While these are the main prospects to watch, I should note that there may be new ones who pop up. If you go back to last year, Derrick Moore was barely a name being talked about until suddenly, right at the end, a coaching change in Oklahoma caused him to decommit and Michigan swooped in. The same was true with Darrius Clemons (who fell away from Oregon because of coaching turmoil with the Ducks) and it's not out of the question that could happen again. Coaching changes sometimes happen on a whim and being in position to reap the benefits did the Wolverines well last time around, so we'll see if there are any opportunities this time. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Looking Ahead to 2024 

The 2024 class is just getting rolling for the Wolverines, so I will keep it on the shorter end here. Michigan is assembling its list of top targets and conducting early visits so this is all rudimentary but I will run through a few names of note. Michigan is aiming for a sizable and talented class at all positions but in particular they need strong showings at QB/LB/DB in 2024. Here are the names to know early on: 

Jadyn Davis, QB (4*/5*): Davis is the biggest name to know these days as a (depending on who you talk to) 5* quarterback. Hailing from the Charlotte area and Providence Day School, Davis has been interested in Michigan for some time and has taken a multitude of visits. The Wolverines have been pushing for Davis to shut it down, but haven't gotten the commitment yet. Alabama and Clemson are interested, while Georgia recently took a 2024 QB and seems to be out of the running, but everyone still believes Michigan is the odds-on favorite. All reporting is that Davis vibes with the coaching staff in a way that was never the case for Dante Moore and that NIL is less of an issue than it was for Moore. At this point the only question is "can Michigan get it done?" 

Mason Curtis, LB (4*): This is the one big time commit the Wolverines have so far, an athletic LB from the Nashville area. You can read his Hello from the summer here, but Curtis is a very nice get to open the 2024 class and seems locked in to Michigan in a way that was never true for ex-2023er Raylen Wilson. 

Brian Robinson, EDGE (4*): If there's one prospect who is seemingly the next most likely in the 2024 class to hop on board, it would be Robinson, who comes from the Youngstown area. He's nestled inside the Top 200 of most rankings and has visited Ann Arbor, most recently for the PSU game. After that visit predictions in Michigan's favor have started to roll in on all the sites, hence the feeling that he might be the next domino to fall. 

Brandon Davis-Swain, DL (4*): Davis-Swain is a West Bloomfield product who is surprisingly committed to Notre Dame, but the Wolverines are aiming to peel him away from the Irish after ND has stumbled through the first half of the season. According to many of the insiders, Davis-Swain appears eminently flippable, it's a matter of whether his talent profile fits Michigan's scheme. Interest between the two sides does seem real given that he visited again this past weekend, but how likely a flip is remains unknown. 

Those are just a few names among dozens that are visiting and in communication with the Michigan staff. I would not expect tons of movement on the 2024 class until the start of the new year, but the fall home slate does provide an opportunity for the coaches to get these players in for early visits and begin building relationships. The total list of targets- and specifically players that Michigan has a good chance with- is promising for the prospect of cobbling together a very good 2024, but a long, long way to go. Of course, we are still 14 months away from signing day for this batch. 

Comments

pfholland

October 20th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^

Why don't we take 2021 Michigan as an example?  The 247 composite recruiting classes for the five prior classes were as follows:

  • 2017: 5
  • 2018: 22
  • 2019: 8
  • 2020: 10
  • 2021: 13

The average ranking for those classes is 11.6, outside the top 10.  And yet Michigan beat an Ohio State team who's average recruiting ranking over the same period was 5 (classes ranked 2, 2, 14, 5, 2), and made a playoff appearance.

Or how about 2022 Michigan?  Our composite class ranking for 2022 was 9, which pulls our five year average down to 12.4.  Granted the year isn't over, but we have a real shot at making it back to the playoffs again.

Now I'm not arguing that class quality doesn't count, I'm just saying that rankings are only a rough approximation of quality, and that no one should be worried that if Michigan finishes outside the top ten in recruiting rankings this year.

Lastly, what I'd really like to do is compare a rolling five year recruiting rankings average with the final AP rankings of the year to see how strong the correlation is.  If recruiting rankings actually matter the correlation should be very strong (and if it is I will change my position).  Unfortunately I have to work, but maybe that would be a good project for this weekend.

Rabbit21

October 19th, 2022 at 4:38 PM ^

Hopefully they have some good scouting going on and are targeting some rising seniors, grab some "We really like your senior film" guys, sprinkle them in with current targets and call it a day.  This will likely be a small class so you don't have to have huge numbers this year and they can probably go with a more developmental class as well.  I think we'd all prefer to have multiple rows of sharks teeth, but it might be time to recognize that the depth charts are starting to get a little crowded and some players who might take a little more time are probably the right move, especially as the NIL approach gets refined.  

jmblue

October 19th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^

DJ Chester (4*), IOL: Planning to visit for MSU but seems like a longshot as Michigan is the only non-southern school in on this Georgia native.

Sometimes this type of situation works out.  The kid decides he doesn't want to deal with any backlash by playing against the local school(s) and leaves the home region.  Of course I have no idea if that applies in his case.

Qmatic

October 19th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^

I've coached against Moore and then have seen Carr in-person and have watched Davis' film. Davis is definitely a higher ceiling QB out of the 2024 class than Carr. In saying that, what I've seen from Davis as a junior is a notch below what I have seen from Dante Moore. No bones about it, that was a big miss; but it can be made up for. I am a tad worried about the QB situation come 2024 since we most likely will not have a QB in this class, or if we do it'll be in the Villari range.

NotADuck

October 19th, 2022 at 5:12 PM ^

Davis Warren competing with Jayden Denegal for the starting job in a year and a half seems most likely unless Jadyn Davis commits and comes in ready to go as a freshman.  Highly unlikely, that last part, but crazier things have happened.

Double-D

October 19th, 2022 at 8:48 PM ^

I don’t think that will be much of a competition. Warren is well ahead.

Davis could compete though as a frosh.

The guy we should be going after right now is Cinci commit Brady Drogosh out of DeLasalle.

He really liked Michigan and is a dual threat with size. 6’4” 200 and can strength build to about 235. He would be a great fit for the 2023 class.

https://247sports.com/player/brady-drogosh-46128584/

 

FreddieMercuryHayes

October 19th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^

Just a shame that UM can't get out of it's own way in this department.  Utterly killed any momentum when Harbaugh pursued the Vikings job, and then UM just willing standing on the sideline in the NIL department until more rules are put in place.  Meanwhile other programs just gobbling up the talent.

Rabbit21

October 19th, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^

I still think the Harbaugh to the Vikings thing was the biggest blow and hit at EXACTLY the wrong time.

The NIL thing is a little irritating, but I like Michigan seeing it sort out and then put in a sustainable program, for better or worse this was always going to be the way Michigan was going to do it and frankly, it may all be to the good as a class full of players where NIL was the main consideration may have some additional chemistry issues.  Slow and steady doesn't always win the race, but there's also less of a chance of tripping all over yourself when you forgot to tie your shoes first trying to sprint out the door.

Wolverine In Exile

October 19th, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^

I'm thinking now that the Kendrick Bell commit is equal parts (1) a nod to Ronnie Bell, (2) UM taking a flyer on a late blooming QB for a developmental 2023 QB position. We got 2023 season covered with JJ & Davis Warren (assuming Cade departs) with Orji/Denegal/now Bell as developmental QBs. 2024 we try and get the big fish QB recruit with a chance to start as a freshman. 

Hanniballs

October 19th, 2022 at 2:50 PM ^

I think the thing people don’t talk about enough is how recruiting is often a multi-year cycle and effects of good/bad seasons often take two years to take effect. Much of the 2023 class was contacted and recruited during a period that saw a disastrous 2020 season, multiple recruiting coordinators and significant staff turnover, not to mention the Harbaugh incident. Last years hot finish was the best case scenario.
 

This class was always going to be a bit of a comedown, but great early returns on the 2022 class and a large/strong 2024 class could paper over it and lead to minimal speed bumps down the road (as well as netting a transfer QB that keeps us afloat after JJ leaves)

Magnum P.I.

October 19th, 2022 at 2:56 PM ^

Hello recruits. We are the #3 team in the nation. We are among the five programs sending the most players to the NFL. We will set you up for life after football. Our coaches and players are nice.

gopoohgo

October 19th, 2022 at 3:02 PM ^

We aren't getting Hobbs.  

He just announced that he is committing on November 25th.  He was at Tennessee last weekend, and has a Bama visit scheduled this weekend. 

ahw1982

October 19th, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^

Plays for loaded Carlsbad HS with elite QB prospect Julian Sayin. 

Kind of a long shot, but has anyone told Julian that if he played for Michigan he could dye his hair maize and his nickname could be "Super Sayin"?