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I did, but he only knows…

I did, but he only knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men.

You can't fool me.  There…

You can't fool me.  There ain't no sanity clause!

Good for him, he earned it.

Good for him, he earned it.

I canceled my subscription…

I canceled my subscription to The Athletic for the same reason. 

Yeah, that had me confused,…

Yeah, that had me confused, too, until I figured out the typo ("not" instead of "now").  

Wow, I never thought my…

Wow, I never thought my avatar would be so applicable to a headline on this site.

I have a slightly different…

I have a slightly different take on your first point.  It's not that not enough people in the PAC12 footprint care about college football, it's that not enough people in the PAC12 footprint care about PAC12 football.

I've lived in the Bay Area for more than 20 years, and there are plenty of college football fans in the area. They're just mostly transplants from outside the PAC12 footprint, and their loyalties generally lie with their alma maters.

It's-a me, Michigan!

It's-a me, Michigan!

That doesn’t make…

That doesn’t make statistical sense, as the number of gun shows and gun ranges is dwarfed by the number of gun free zones (like schools). When that’s the case comparing absolute numbers is meaningless. The question is whether the likelihood of a location to be subject to a mass shooting is at all correlated with its status as gun free or not. 

Let me ask you a serious…

Let me ask you a serious question. If someone were to present irrefutable evidence that the status (gun free or not) of a zone had zero impact on the likelihood it would be the target of a mass shooting would you change your position?

Why don't we take 2021…

Why don't we take 2021 Michigan as an example?  The 247 composite recruiting classes for the five prior classes were as follows:

  • 2017: 5
  • 2018: 22
  • 2019: 8
  • 2020: 10
  • 2021: 13

The average ranking for those classes is 11.6, outside the top 10.  And yet Michigan beat an Ohio State team who's average recruiting ranking over the same period was 5 (classes ranked 2, 2, 14, 5, 2), and made a playoff appearance.

Or how about 2022 Michigan?  Our composite class ranking for 2022 was 9, which pulls our five year average down to 12.4.  Granted the year isn't over, but we have a real shot at making it back to the playoffs again.

Now I'm not arguing that class quality doesn't count, I'm just saying that rankings are only a rough approximation of quality, and that no one should be worried that if Michigan finishes outside the top ten in recruiting rankings this year.

Lastly, what I'd really like to do is compare a rolling five year recruiting rankings average with the final AP rankings of the year to see how strong the correlation is.  If recruiting rankings actually matter the correlation should be very strong (and if it is I will change my position).  Unfortunately I have to work, but maybe that would be a good project for this weekend.

First, I didn’t say I agreed…

First, I didn’t say I agreed with that statement, I said it was defensible. You can make a reasonable argument supporting it.

That said, I do not believe a class ranking, the specific place in which a recruiting service says your recruiting class finished among all the classes, is meaningful beyond serving as a very rough approximation of class quality. The actual quality of a class can only really be determined in retrospect, and that absolutely does matter. 

The statistic you’re alluding to (that #1 rated recruiting classes tend to play for national titles) is massively skewed by Alabama, and they won their first title under Saban without a #1 rated class. That success is what lead to all the subsequent #1 classes, so I think it’s disingenuous to say that their subsequent title game appearances are because of their top-rated classes. 

The success of your team is…

The success of your team is based on recruiting and coaching, so recruiting is definitely not a dumb thing to worry about.

What I think you meant to say is that recruiting rankings are a dumb thing to worry about.  That's a defensible position.

What fresh hell is this!?!?

What fresh hell is this!?!?

Technically it's only the…

Technically it's only the mute swans, and only if they're unmarked.

Logged in just to upvote…

Logged in just to upvote this.  Genius.

Somewhere on the interwebs I…

Somewhere on the interwebs I saw that act (7 points via a FG and two safeties) being referred to as an Iowa Touchdown. I really hope this becomes a thing. 

Also, if “Safety Dance” is not played and danced to at Kinnick following every Iowa safety they’re missing out on a golden opportunity to embrace their identity. 

I'd like to second Community…

I'd like to second Community and Parks and Recreation for sitcoms, along with Arrested Development.  I have rewatched all three of these more times than I care to mention, they never get old.  For the purposes of this discussion, season 4 of Community (the gas leak year) should be ignored.

And while I watch comedies far more often than dramas, I consider The Wire the greatest television program ever.

Lastly, I strongly believe Rick and Morty will ultimately belong on the list of great comedies, but I think it's too soon to say that definitively.

That's a heck of an…

That's a heck of an accomplishment.  Interestingly, the first Indian American to complete the Seven Summits (this guy) is also a U of M grad.

I lost both my father and my…

I lost both my father and my grandmother to brain cancer, so I have a special loathing for that particular disease.  This news brightens my day immensely.

Interesting that this came…

Interesting that this came out at the same time we learned that DeMeco Ryans turned down a second interview with the Vikings.  It at least implies he's not a top choice.

From a tea bag?

From a tea bag?

No, I'm actually talking…

No, the Display Pipe is a hardware block, a functional region within a larger SoC (as opposed to the TCON, an external piece of silicon that electrically drives pixels onto the panel).

The Display Pipeline takes a source buffer (typically the output of a GPU or Video Decoder) and pushes it out to the TCON. In my case it's responsible for converting from arbitrary source formats to whatever is appropriate for the panel (i.e. color space, gamma, precision, etc.), applying video timing, and performing any panel-specific correction (say for temperature, brightness, or manufacturing variation)

I feel really bad, because I…

I feel really bad, because I clicked on this link thinking I'd be able to help someone out for once, as I have been working on architecting display pipes for almost 15 years.  And from a very low-level standpoint I can tell you exactly how to do things like transform BT.2020 (or any other arbitrary color space) to Rec.709.  Unfortunately, it sounds like you need more practical help making existing software do what you need, and that is very much not my area.

Having said that, if you do actually need help creating LUTs for color space transformation I can probably help.

Genius. I wish I could…

Genius. I wish I could upvote this more. 

Michigan wins, 24-6.

Michigan wins, 24-6.

And now you know the rest of…

And now you know the rest of the story. 

Well prognosticated, but we…

Pretty well prognosticated (though we didn’t pass PSU), but we’re a lot closer to #7 (and even #6) than I was expecting. 

…and #8 in the AP Poll, just…

…and #8 in the AP Poll, just behind Penn State: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

2013 Brunello.  Pairs…

2013 Brunello.  Pairs wonderfully with Chicago-style deep dish pizza.

Today is the day this blog…

Today is the day this blog validated my "Don't Let the Pigeon Drive the Bus" avatar!

While I completely agree…

While I completely agree that, in this instance, the Texans made the correct decision considering they were playing the Titans, I don't think the decision making is that simple in every case.

Specifically, as Sambojangles pointed out, the Titans are pretty clearly the better team.  As such, they had much less to fear from overtime than the Texans did (which was proven out).  For that reason, the Texans playing to win was the right call, even if it didn't work out.

But flip the teams and I think the decision making changes.  The Titans would be looking at the following outcomes (using 45.6% for the 2-point conversion, 94% for extra point, and assuming the Texans would go for the win given the opportunity).  A 2-point conversion means there's a 75.2% chance of winning and a 24.8% chance of losing.  An extra point means there's a 54.4% chance of winning, a 42.9% chance of tying (OT), and only a 2.7% chance of losing.

What do you think the odds are that the Titans would win should a game against the Texans go into OT?  Because anything at or above 48.5% means the odds of the Titans winning would be as good or better if they were to kick the extra point. And, even though it shouldn't matter, the optics of the better team losing in regulation because of an aggressive play call are significantly worse than the optics of losing in OT because of a conservative play call. 

Obviously this is all hypothetical, and the numbers will change as you play around with the 2-point conversion percentage, but I think it's an interesting conversation to have.

That the Titans (clearly the…

That the Titans (clearly the better team) would almost definitely play for the tie is a good point.  I'm curious though, if teams were flipped, do you think it changes the decision making at all?

Personally, I think that if it was the Titans deciding whether to kick the extra point or go for two the best play would be to kick the extra point.  I absolutely think the Texans would be right to go for two and the win if presented with the opportunity because of a missed 2-point conversion, as they would be less likely to pull out a win in overtime.

They're both good songs, but…

They're both good songs, but I prefer "Threshold".  Side note, Beck's version, which can be found on one version of the soundtrack, is (unsurprisingly) superior to the movie version.

I do think you left out one…

I do think you left out one important variable though: if the Texans go for two and miss, they will lose if the Titans go for two and convert.  Obviously that ended up not applying in this case (the Titans went for the tie), but it should probably be factored into the original decision making.

If my math is right, a 45.6% conversion rate equates to a roughly 24.8% chance of losing to a 2-point conversion if the Texans attempt a 2-point conversion, compared to a 2.74% chance of losing to a 2-point conversion if the Texans attempt an extra point. 

I think you have a grab-bag…

I think you have a grab-bag of stocks, some of which fit your narrative and some of which don't.

For example, AAPL and MSFT have P/Es of around 36, which isn't hugely inflated for software and service companies.  MSFT has always been one of these, and AAPL, while still selling a great deal of hardware, is diversifying in that direction.

TSLA on the other hand has a P/E that exceeds 1000, which is ridiculous by any measure. There's no way it is fairly valued, and I think it's likely that a massive correction will occur.  When?  No idea.

We've had irrational exuberance in different sectors multiple times since the dot com crash (crypto, blockchain, etc.), and corrections to these areas have occurred without causing significant damage across the market.  

I do think there may be a much broader correction this time, but because of broader economic issues (COVID), not because of the exuberance in electric vehicle stocks.  I also think, as others have mentioned, economic damage may come in the form of inflation, in which case stocks will actually be a much better place to store money than cash.

Yesterday we abutted 3…

Yesterday we abutted 3 Stanford territories, while they abutted 5 of ours, so we were fighting them in a total of 8 territories.  If we were an 80% chance to win each of those 8 territories we would only be expected to do so roughly 16.8% of the time.  For us to have a greater than 50% chance of winning all of the territories our likelihood of winning each would need to be a little over 91.7%. 

In other words, it's very unlikely we will be able to eliminate Stanford from the West Coast unless we can convince them to direct their focus elsewhere.

Where did I say anything…

Where did I say anything about AIDS being as infectious as this strain of coronavirus?  I simply pointed out that calling this the, "...first major health scare in modern history for the USA," was factually inaccurate. 

When AIDS first burst on the scene it was far scarier.  Everything about it, including the cause being HIV and that it was not spread by casual contact, was completely unknown. Even by the lowest estimates COVID-19 has a terrifyingly high fatality rate (especially for those in high risk groups) but AIDS was a literal death sentence for everyone.

I was also pointing out the irony in your statement about people being unaware of how "entitled and privileged" they are, then in the very next sentence providing a perfect example.  It takes a certain kind of privilege to be in a position to completely forget about AIDS.

 

The fact that this is the…

There's a certain irony in this comment...

...most people (even on MGOBLOG) are oblivious to how entitled and privileged we are.

...being immediately followed by this one.

The fact that this is the first major health scare in modern history for the USA

So...remember the AIDS pandemic?

That might be true when…

That might be true when dealing with systemic failures, but not for individual bank failures.  If large amounts of money must be split across multiple banks to be fully insured it minimizes the risk to the FDIC that could come from a single bank failure.

Imagine a scenario under which a bank is in trouble and so starts offering unsustainably high interest rates to attract deposits.  The influx of deposits could be significantly higher if not mitigated by the FDIC insurance limits, making the costs to the FDIC of an eventual failure much higher.

Oh trust me, I know all too…

Oh trust me, I know all too well that a lack of clarity is always the fault of the communicator.  My primary responsibility is writing architectural specifications for SOCs, so whenever I am not crystal clear it causes real problems (and I get roasted).

Was the original writing not as clear as it could be? Yes.  If I had such a line in my specification would I change it to make it clearer if someone brought it to my attention?  Also yes. But if someone tried to argue in front of one of my execs that the line was so ambiguous that they shouldn't be blamed for misinterpreting it they would be torn to pieces.  It's not as clear as it could be, but intent is obvious.

C'mon, you literally cut out…

C'mon, you literally cut out the relevant part of what he said when quoting him (emphasis added):

"I couldn't believe how many people were on the trails walking or gathering in big groups."

It's clear from context that he was referring to people walking in big groups or gathering in big groups.  

Everyone misreads things now and then.  The smart move is to say, "Oops, missed that, sorry," and move on.  Doubling down and misleadingly quoting out of context makes you look like a child refusing to admit he's wrong.

The government grounding…

The government grounding flights seems rather extreme.  I would be more concerned about flights being cancelled by the airlines due to lack of demand.

C'mon man, Italy didn't shut…

C'mon man, Italy didn't shut down the country for nothing. Italian physicians have written about how an insufficient number of ventilators means they have had to choose who gets a chance to live and who will almost certainly die. This is a real pandemic, and we need to be taking what steps we can to minimize its impact in the U.S., or we will see the same thing here.

I started the process with…

I started the process with Wells Fargo back in the end of January when I saw 15-year fixed refinance rates drop to 2.875% (I'm refinancing from a 30-year fixed at 3.625%). With the markets melting down the way they are I assumed I rate locked too early, but when I checked today the 15-year fixed refinance rate was 3.25%.  Go figure.

I am not claiming the…

I am not claiming the numbers are highly accurate, but they are the best number we currently have. However just because we can't cite highly accurate numbers does not mean we can't make broad statements about how dangerous the disease is for certain groups.  To wit, when the flu rolls through nursing homes (which it does every year), you don't generally see double digit deaths, even in bad years (excluding pandemic flu years).  I don't want to say you never see such rates in any nursing home, as given the number of nursing homes in the country you expect statistical outliers, but when the first nursing home in the country identified with the disease has 19 deaths the likelihood of it being a statistical outlier is very low.  Given what we know, stating that we're dealing with a disease that is something like an order of magnitude more deadly than a typical flu is not hyperbole.

Side note, even flu mortality rates are a "best guess" because flu rates are extrapolated from the people who are swabbed: generally, those who seek medical care for flu-like symptoms.  It's not that much different from coronavirus in that regard, though there are admittedly more years of data from which to extrapolate, along with other types of information (Google searches for flu symptoms being a common example). 

What we really need to get a good handle or mortality, though it will only be backwards looking, is antibody testing on a statistically significant sampling of the general population.  That will give us a good sense for how many people were exposed, and from that we can come up with very accurate mortality rates.  I'd actually like to see sampling started now (even if testing the samples must wait until later) and performed at regular intervals, as that would allow for temporal modeling of the spread of the disease. That data would be fascinating, and, I suspect, hugely useful from a public health standpoint.

The best data I have seen is…

The best data I have seen is that for people over 80 the mortality rate of 14.8%.  This is data coming from China, so part of that can likely be chalked up to the healthcare system being overwhelmed, but it does imply a mortality rate for that group of more than 100x the overall mortality rate of a typical seasonal flu (0.1%).

That said, it's not an apples to apples comparison.  The 0.1% is total mortality across all age groups, while the 14.8% is limited to those over 80.  While I couldn't find flu mortality rates for those over 80, for those 65 and over the mortality rate of a typical flu appears to be less than 1%.

So while it's not accurate to say the mortality rate is "hundreds" of times greater than the flu for those over 70, it is a gross understatement to say that the mortality rate is "probably higher than that of the flu".  The 19 deaths out of 31 positive tests (so far) at the nursing home in Washington demonstrates just how dangerous this disease is for the elderly.

I know literally no Michigan…

I know literally no Michigan alum who has ever had a "fuck my degree" attitude because of the what the athletic teams do or do not accomplish. If you're questioning the value of your degree because of what happens on the field/court, you need to seriously re-examine your priorities.

Flew in from California with…

Flew in from California with my 9-year-old son for the game, something we do once a year.  We sat in Section 44, and I was impressed that everyone around us (a lot of older fans) stood the entire time, excluding media stoppages.  There were a couple of Notre Dame fans, and while they cheered loudly during the early part of the game, they weren't in any way disruptive or rude. They were also fairly quiet after that punt block.

On the down side, this was the first time my son didn't make it through the whole game, he was just too uncomfortable.  I think he would have toughed it out if the game was closer (he managed to make it through the entire 2017 MSU game), but he said he regretted leaving once the rain had stopped.  Of course that sentiment was expressed from Grandma's house while sipping hot chocolate and after getting into dry clothes, so I'm not sure how accurate it is.

I don't know what to say as…

I don't know what to say as there's a shit ton of material out there about this.

Can you point me to this?  I'm not trying to be a dick, I genuinely would like to see evidence of this, because it would absolutely change my position on Brandon. To be clear, I'm not talking about him pushing people he didn't want working for him out of their jobs (that he did that is not in dispute), I'm talking about taking steps to ensure someone could not work in their chosen profession. If he was going to be held responsible for how the Athletic Department operated (and he clearly was), he had the right to staff it as he saw fit.

And my saying that your take is cynical shouldn't be in dispute, it is a cynical take.  Calling something cynical is different from saying it's inaccurate.  I'm saying it's possible, but operating on the principle that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one, it's the less likely choice.