While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

• May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
• June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
• July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)
Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)
Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]

Indiana

Key departures: G Armaan Franklin (Virginia transfer), G Al Durham (Providence transfer), head coach Archie Miller
Key additions: PG Xavier Johnson (Pitt transfer), W Miller Kopp (Northwestern transfer), W Parker Stewart (UT-Martin transfer), 4* G Tamar Bates (2021 signee), 4* C Logan Duncomb (2021 signee), head coach Mike Woodson, associate athletic director Thad Matta

This looked a whole lot worse before Indiana hired Mike Woodson, who's done a remarkable job of building excitement around the program and retaining players who had at least one foot out the door.

First and foremost, Woodson convinced center Trayce Jackson-Davis to return for his junior year instead of heading to the draft, something I doubt would've happened if Archie Miller were still the coach. Woodson also got Khristian Lander, Race Thompson, Jordan Geronimo, and Parker Stewart (who sat out as a transfer last year) to withdraw from the transfer portal and return to the program. 

Woodson kept the commitment of top-75 C Logan Duncomb and added to IU's 2021 haul yesterday with IMG Academy guard Tamar Bates, who was one of the top-ranked uncommitted players remaining in the class at #56 on the composite. Pitt transfer Xavier Johnson capably carried a huge load on some bad teams and should start right away, which helps lessen the blow of losing Armaan Franklin and Al Durham while allowing the talented Lander to ease his way into more on-ball work. This morning, the Hoosiers picked up Northwestern transfer Miller Kopp, who's coming off a down year but could add needed outside shooting on a team that won't lean on him as much.

Just getting Indiana out of a Year Zero situation is an impressive accomplishment and Woodson has even done enough to get the Hoosiers right back into position for a tourney run. We have to wait to see how his coaching tactics translate to college; he certainly appears cut out for the recruiting side of the job.

Iowa

everyone but the McCafferys are gone [Campredon]

Key departures: C Luka Garza (draft, gone), G CJ Fredrick (transfer), C Jack Nunge (Xavier transfer)
Key additions: Uh... 3* PF Payton Sandfort? 3* C Riley Mulvey?
Up in the air: W Joe Wieskamp (draft w/o agent), PG Jordan Bohannon (possible super senior)

Shooting guard CJ Fredrick entered the transfer portal yesterday amid rumors he'll end up at Kentucky. Fran McCaffery's squad was already going to look different without Luka Garza manning the middle. Now they might be borderline unrecognizable:

We knew Iowa would have a new-look basketball team next season. We didn't perhaps appreciate just how new-look it would be. Luka Garza has departed to begin a professional hoops career. Joe Wieskamp is again going through the NBA Draft process, with an extremely high likelihood that he will not be returning to Iowa for another season. Jordan Bohannon could return for a sixth season given the NCAA's free year of eligibility in 2020-21 and has not formally announced his plans yet, but it's believed he won't be returning to Iowa without the implementation of Name, Image, and Likeness rights for college athletes. Legislation at the state level has died for the time being and federal legislation to pass in the next few months. If JBo doesn't return, Iowa will be down four starters from last season with Fredrick's departure -- and that might be five starters depending on Connor McCaffery's recovery from off-season hip surgeries. 

This isn't a situation like Michigan's, either, where there are a wave of potential pros coming in to replace the departing pros. Although Keegan Murray ended up playing well over his middling three-star status as a freshman last season, McCaffery has struggled to bring in talent; of the seven recruits he's brought in over the last two classes, the highest-rated is incoming freshman forward Payton Sandfort, who's #140 overall on the 2021 composite rankings. (For perspective, he's six spots ahead of Will Tschetter, the lowest-ranked recruit in Michigan's six-man 2021 class.)

Five of those seven were freshmen last season and Murray was the only to earn regular playing time. Everyone else was at best on the fringe of the rotation. The team's only senior in the rotation, Connor McCaffrey, is halfway through dual hip surgeries this offseason; he'll reportedly be cleared for regular activity in October if all goes well but coming all the way back from hip operations can take a while and sometimes never fully happens. The only true centers on the roster right now are freshman Riley Mulvey, the #241 player in the 2021 class after reclassifying from 2022, and sophomore Josh Ogunleye, who played 17 minutes all season after coming over from London as a major project.

Iowa badly needs to hit the transfer portal, particularly for a starting center. They've been connected to Minnesota's Liam Robbins, an Iowa native, and North Dakota's Filip Rebraca, who's smaller but has a decent outside shot. Robbins' experience in the Big Ten would bolster the roster, though not to the point where they can avoid a step back unless Wieskamp and Bohannon make surprise returns. [EDIT: Never mind that bit, I missed that Robbins committed to Vanderbilt.]

Maryland

Key departures: G Darryl Morsell (draft or transfer), G Aquan Smart (transfer)
Key additions: PG Fatts Russell (Rhode Island grad transfer), C Qudus Wahab (Georgetown transfer), 4* PF Julian Reese (2021 signee), 4* SF Ike Cornish (2021 signee)
Up in the air: G Eric Ayala (draft w/o agent), W Aaron Wiggins (draft w/o agent)

Say goodbye to everyone's-the-same-height Maryland, which had a surprisingly good run last season. Mark Turgeon landed one of the more sought-after transfers on the market in 5'11 point guard Fatts Russell, who was a productive ball-dominant lead guard for four years at Rhode Island, albeit never an efficient scorer. He should have a significantly different shot profile on a better team, though he'll also be facing tougher competition.

[UPDATE: I overlooked the addition of Georgetown transfer Qudus Wahab, a 6'11 center who averaged 13 points and eight rebounds with solid rate stats as a starter last season. Maryland was in major need of a true big man and Wahab fills that role ably. Apologies for the initial omission, even the 247 transfer portal list has a number of players missing so I'm working off several sources as best I can.]

The Terps potentially get most of their core back, too, if Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins return from testing the draft waters. Neither player is a projected pick this year. Fake News Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Darryl Morsell, on the other hand, took the "either way I'm out" option by simultaneously declaring for the draft without hiring an agent and entering the transfer portal. Guard Aquan Smart, who struggled in limited minutes as a freshman, also intends to transfer.

Turgeon landed a pair of lower-end four-stars in 6'9 big Julian Reese and 6'6 wing Ike Cornish. The Terps also have, in practical terms, a very early enrolled freshman in 2020 four-star wing James Graham, who reclassified to graduate high school early but barely played last season—he still has a head start on developing in a college program.

Michigan State

Key departures: W Aaron Henry (draft w/ agent), G Rocket Watts (transfer), G Josh Langford (declined sixth year), F Thomas Kithier (Valparaiso transfer), PG Foster Loyer (transfer)
Key additions: PG Tyson Walker (Northeastern transfer), 5* W Max Christie (2021 signee), 4* PG Jaden Akins (2021 signee), 4* W Pierre Brooks (2021 Signee) 

This is less turnover than I expected after a tumultuous year for State, though that still meant losing one of their most talented players in Rocket Watts to the transfer portal, best player Aaron Henry to the draft, and two other significant contributors in Josh Langford (retiring from basketball) and Thomas Kithier. They're going to need a lot of production from a precocious 2021 class led by five-star wing Max Christie.

Tom Izzo shored up the troublesome point guard position with coveted Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker, who averaged a shade under 19 points on a solid 55.8 true shooting percentage while also earning CAA Defensive Player of the Year. The junior should start and allow four-star point guard Jaden Akins to get used to the college game before having to play starter-level minutes if needed. AJ Hoggard is still around for depth, too. (Jack Hoiberg, however, entered the portal.) [UPDATE: As did Foster Loyer.]

For better or worse, there are still a lot of bodies up front. Joey Hauser, Marcus Bingham, Malik Hall, Julius Marble, and Mady Sissoko are all on the roster, as is Gabe Brown, though he'll presumably play more of his time at the three with Henry gone. They could head into the season with what they've got or use their open scholarship on what I'm guessing would be a shooting guard or small forward. 

Michigan

returner shoots over goner [Campredon]

Key departures: W Isaiah Livers (draft w/ agent), PG Mike Smith (draft/declined extra year), W Chaundee Brown (draft/declined extra year), C Austin Davis (declined extra year)
Key additions/super seniors: G Eli Brooks (super senior), 5* wing Caleb Houstan (2021 signee), 5* PF Moussa Diabate (2021 signee), 4* G Kobe Bufkin (2021 signee), 4* PG Frankie Collins (2021 signee), 4* W Isaiah Barnes (2021 signee)
Up in the air: W Franz Wagner (expected to enter NBA draft)

You know the deal here. We're anticipating Franz Wagner will be a lottery pick in this draft if/when he chooses to declare. Beyond maybe adding a transfer guard if the right player comes along, Michigan's roster appears set pending Wagner's decision, and he's expected to go pro.

Eli Brooks gives the team a veteran guard who knows the system on both ends, which will help the transition of the guards in (clears throat) the number one recruiting class in the country. Juwan Howard could have as many as five immediate contributors from that class and that's the early expectation given their talent level. Despite some significant losses, the Wolverines head into 2021-22 with a promising mix of experience and high-level talent.

Minnesota

Key departures: PG Marcus Carr (draft or transfer), C Liam Robbins (Vanderbilt transfer), G Gabe Kalscheur (Iowa State transfer), G Jamal Mashburn Jr. (New Mexico transfer), G Tre Williams (transfer), C Sam Freeman (transfer), head coach Richard Pitino (extremely fired, now HC at New Mexico)
Key additions: W Jamison Battle (George Washington transfer), G Luke Loewe (William & Mary grad transfer), W Sean Sutherlin (New Hampshire transfer), G Payton Willis (College of Charleston transfer), W Parker Fox (Northern State transfer), G EJ Stephens (Lafayette transfer), head coach Ben Johnson
Up in the air: F Brandon Johnson (testing draft, could return or transfer)

The post-Pitino world in Minnesota is one of upheaval. Two of the 13 players from the 2020-21 roster are slated to return: our beloved Disaster Factory Award winner Both Gach and backup stretch big Isaiah Ihnen, who both had effective field goal percentages below 40 in Big Ten play last season. The only other player with even a chance of returning is forward Brandon Johnson, who entered the draft without an agent but doesn't seem certain to come back to Minnesota even if he rejoins the college ranks.

After releasing center Kenny Pohto from his letter of intent, new coach Ben Johnson has only one incoming freshman: Treyton Thompson, a three-star center listed at 6'11, 190(!) pounds on 247. Thompson is also the team's only true center; Ihnen is more of a power forward. Johnson has added six transfers, all of whom will be facing significantly tougher competition than they did last season:

Outside of [Payton] Willis, who has played 94 games of high-major basketball at the U in 2019-20 and with Vanderbilt from 2016-18, the U is asking five new players to bring their game from lower ranks up to the rugged Big Ten. Expecting all of those players to hit is a huge ask.

Willis averaged nine points and two assists for the 2020 Gophers before transferring to the College of Charleston, where he managed his best shooting and passing seasons in his most prominent role, though against CAA foes. With Marcus Carr gone, Willis could go from transferring away for a bigger role to being the team's lead guard.

The transfer with the most potential is 6'7 wing Jamison Battle, who scored over 17 points per game as George Washington's #2 offensive option. A volume three-point shooter as a freshman, Battle was able to score more often inside the arc last year without losing his efficiency, and he's made a solid 36% of his 339 career three-point attempts. He's got a good chance to be the team's best player right away.

That'd be fine in the Atlantic 10. It's going to be a rough year in the Big Ten.