alfonso plummer

It started as The Alfonso Plummer Game and it ended as the Michigan Can't Defend A Ball Screen Game. Either way you look at it, due to a convergence of factors, Michigan's defensive effort today against Illinois at Crisler Center was wretched. In the process, it doomed the home team to a 93-85 loss on Sunday afternoon, despite a valiant comeback late that came up just short. With only three games left in the season, the 15-12 Wolverines are now likely in need of two wins in the final week of the regular season to feel good about the NCAA Tournament entering the B1G Tourney in Indianapolis. 

The opening of the game was a torrid explosion from the Illinois shooters, and more specifically, Alfonso Plummer. The journeyman wing sniper shoveled in threes like coal into a steam engine, shooting 7/11 from the floor in the first half, including 5/8 from distance, plus 4/6 at the stripe for a whopping 23 points. Michigan lost track of Plummer on a few occasions, but he was also knocking down difficult shots off the dribble from way outside. The ole heatcheck shots, as they call them. The Illini offense was not nearly as successful outside of Plummer, with the squad mustering barely 40% from two, but shooting 8/14 from three point range will take you far. Trent Frazier and Kofi Cockburn were tied with 8 points in the first half. 

Michigan was unable to properly keep pace with Illinois' shooting explosion in that first half, but they did manage to enter the half only down eight. They did it despite making just two three pointers in that first half and despite only one player having a truly satisfactory offensive half. That would be Caleb Houstan, who led the Wolverines with 11 points, including 2/2 from three. The bigs struggled, though, with Dickinson and Diabate combining to shoot 4/14 from the floor. Dickinson in particular was not attacking the rim with enough strength, settling for awkward 6-8 foot floaters that were clanging out. Still, Michigan banked eight points at the line, did enough to limit turnovers, and entered the break down only 46-38. 

[Campredon]

It was in the second half that Michigan's defensive issues grew from "the other team is shooting the lights out and we're occasionally contributing to that" to "total schematic meltdown in the ball screen game". Though Illinois managed to shoot 67% from three in the second half, it came on just three attempts. The reason? They didn't need to attempt threes because the Fighting Illini shot a scorching 71% from two in the second half. Why try a three pointer when you can walk into the paint untouched for an easy deuce? That was the storyline. Illinois' ballscreens just obliterated the Michigan defense, with Brad Underwood using Kofi Cockburn's body like a fullback, clearing easy lanes to the rim. Often times, the penetrator would lay it off to Cockburn once inside, and the big man hung 19 on Michigan on 7/8 from the floor in the half. 

Michigan's offense struggled to keep pace with the sieve that was their defense, and the margin expanded to 15 points with 9:32 to go. The game started to seem over, but that's when DeVante' Jones put on his superhero cape. After Diabate had begun to trim the lead back to ~10, Jones took over, drawing a foul at the three point line and making all three, before knocking down a three on Michigan's next trip down the floor. Suddenly, the score was 76-71 Illinois with 6:32 to go. The Illini responded with a quick spurt of their own, highlighting some of Jones' defensive issues, getting two easy driving layups off screens for Andre Curbelo and Frazier. 

DeVante' Jones helped lead Michigan back [Campredon]

Michigan and Jones weren't done, though. Jones made a layup and after an Illinois turnover, he swished a couple free throws to trim it back to four, now with 3:12 left. Dickinson was hit with a tough foul, but Coleman Hawkins made just one of two at the line, and a transition three by Houstan forty seconds later sent Crisler into a frenzy: Illinois led just 82-80 with 2:03 to play. That was the end of the comeback, unfortunately. Kofi Cockburn made a hook shot, Houstan came up short on a layup attempt (possible foul was not called), Illinois snagged an OREB on a Jacob Grandison missed three that kicked off the heel, and then Trent Frazier knocked down a pull-up trey. 87-80 Illinois with 45 seconds left... goodnight. The teams traded makes and free throws in the final seconds, but the margin didn't budge much. Final score: Illinois 93, Michigan 85. 

In the end, Michigan lost this game because they let the opponent score 93 points on 57% from the field. It is very difficult to win a basketball game when your ball screen defense was as poor as Michigan's, and the fact they were within a bucket with under a minute to go despite playing that sort of interior defense, is pretty miraculous. Jones was not great defensively, but his 25 points helped keep Michigan in it, as did Houstan's 21. The big men did not pull their weight on offense, and the defense eliminated much of any chance of winning. 

The Wolverines now are 15-12 and 9-8 in the conference, with three games remaining. Those are home games against Michigan State and Iowa, followed by a road game against Ohio State. The goal should be to go 2-1 in those remaining three to shore up the tournament odds heading into Indianapolis. The next one, against the Spartans on Tuesday night, is a huge one. That game is scheduled for Tuesday night at 8:30 PM EST and will be broadcasted on FS1. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

• May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
• June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
• July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)
Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)
Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]