khristian lander

While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

• May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
• June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
• July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)
Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)
Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]

The Wolverines have three prospects which are the sole focus of the 2020 class after the commitment of five-star Isaiah Todd. Decisions could be forthcoming within a few weeks for two of the three and Michigan appears to be on solid ground heading into the early signing period. The fact that Michigan is locked-in on these three, and these three exclusively, may give some insight as to the staff’s respective confidence meter.

Michigan Makes Final 3 for Moody

2020 Top-30 Prospect Moses Moody is down to 3 schools. @moses_moody3 pic.twitter.com/nSsnpqdVW7

— TIPTON EDITS (@TiptonEdits) October 29, 2019

Top-60 prospect Moses Moody cut his list down to Michigan, Arkansas and Virginia yesterday. Moody took an official visit to Michigan in late September where the staff made a great impression by all accounts. Isaiah Todd and family also struck up friendship with the Moodys and one has to assume Isaiah himself has on his recruiting hat with just two weeks until the early signing period.

The Montverde wing recently took an official visit to home-state Arkansas, and his parents are likely pushing him in that direction if their visits are indicative. Despite reports to the contrary, I’ve been hearing for months the Razorbacks are a serious contender in this recruitment with Mom and Dad on board and childhood friend and top-100 guard KK Robinson likely to end up in Fayetteville.

Virginia recently entered the picture, although a visit has yet to be scheduled. Moody placing the Cavaliers in the final 3 without an offer or visit certainly means he has serious interest. Reading between the lines, this appears to be a situation where Tony Bennett is slow-playing Moses at the moment. Based on the Virginia depth chart and 2020 commitments of SF Jabri Abdur-Rahim and SG Carson McCorkle, Bennett is more likely to give him a serious look in the Spring rather than making Moody an early signing period priority.

A decision is still expected within the next 2-3 weeks, and the key item to look for is whether a Virginia visit comes to fruition. If not, we’re looking at a Michigan-Arkansas battle where the kid may gravitate a bit more toward the Wolverines while staying home is the likely pitch from Mom and Dad.

[Hit THE JUMP for the status quo elsewhere.]

The first domino fell in place last week, with 5-star wing/forward Isaiah Todd committing to the Wolverines. I’d highly encourage everyone to take another look at the Hoops Hello post for Todd if you subscribe to the We Can Have Nice Things theory with respect to basketball. In a piece with USA Today, Todd says he’s already started giving the Michigan pitch to other prospects. Moving forward, Juwan Howard has a few high-level prospects on the board that are moving toward decisions. Let’s see where things stand.

Hunter Dickinson Makes it Out of Durham

Top-40 center Hunter Dickinson took an official visit to Duke last weekend for Countdown to Craziness with a slew of blue-chippers. There hasn’t been a ton of reaction in the aftermath, but Coach K is selling immediate playing time:

“It was nice,” Dickinson told ZAGSBLOG Sunday via text. “[They’re message] is to come in and play a lot right away. What’s next is just try to keep narrowing it down.”

As mentioned last week, the Blue Devils certainly are pushing for both Dickinson and top-30 center Mark Williams. With Williams being a near guarantee to pledge to Duke on November 1, the DeMatha Catholic big man may genuinely be seeking the best opportunity for early playing time among his finalists.

No crystal balls have been placed in favor of Duke since the visit, with Michigan receiving the two most recent CBs in late September. A well-placed Duke-source doesn’t even have a clear read as to where the Devils currently stand. That said, there has been some Florida State buzz from multiple sources recently.

This very much has the feel of a recruitment that will wrap-up sooner rather than later, and it doesn’t appear anyone has a solid grasp of where things are headed right now. Michigan has as good a chance as anyone.

[Hit THE JUMP for latest on Moody, Burnett, Springer.]