marcus carr

While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

• May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
• June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
• July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)
Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)
Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]

Scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Rutgers 51, Nebraska 72
• Illinois 76, Michigan 53
• Wisconsin 69, Purdue 73
• Indiana 58, MSU 64
• Minnesota 65, PSU 84
• Northwestern 60, Maryland 55
• MSU 50, Michigan 69
• Nebraska 64, Iowa 102
• Illinois 73, OSU 68
• Indiana 58, Purdue 67
• Rutgers 77, Minnesota 70 (OT)
• Michigan 64, MSU 70
• Wisconsin 73, Iowa 77
• Nebraska 78, Northwestern 79
• PSU 66, Maryland 61

As you're probably aware, Illinois closed strong enough to whinge about Michigan ducking, uh, Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana. Purdue, meanwhile, took advantage of Ohio State's tough late-season schedule to slip past them for the #4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. On the other end, Maryland stumbled to the finish line, though they're still in good shape for an NCAA bid.

The Final Regular Season Standings

Indiana and Minnesota are missing the tournament barring miracle BTT runs. Incidentally, there are rumors that both Archie Miller and Richard Pitino will be looking for new jobs this offseason.

The Actual All-Conference Awards

Are a debacle. They will be discussed in a separate post.

[Hit THE JUMP for awards that make sense.]

At least until last night, this week was largely about the top end of the conference separating itself from the rest of the league. Notable scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Maryland 55, Indiana 63
• Rutgers 45, MSU 68
• Minnesota 57, Michigan 82
• Iowa 89, Maryland 67
• Indiana 73, Wisconsin 80 (2OT)
• Illinois 81, Northwestern 56
• Purdue 55, MSU 54
• OSU 79, Rutgers 68
• Minnesota 71, Iowa 86
• Maryland 66, Illinois 63

Iowa went an emphatic 2-0, Michigan blew out Minnesota, Illinois demolished Northwestern, and Wisconsin survived a scare from Indiana. Northwestern, Rutgers, and Indiana all had rough weeks; the only win among them was the Hoosiers righting the ship after blowing a big lead against last-place Nebraska.

Then Maryland went on the road to upset the Illini last night despite missing Eric Ayala, their only rotation player who somewhat resembles a point guard. The top four may be separating from the pack, but that pack is still dangerous.

We had more COVID-related postponements this week: Wisconsin at Penn State, Nebraska at Purdue, Penn State at OSU, and Michigan at Penn State did not happen as scheduled. PSU paused their program last week and their game against Rutgers originally slated for tomorrow night is postponed.

The Nittany Lions are going to have at least four games to make up when they're able to retake the court; they'll either face a brutally packed schedule to fit them in or the Big Ten is going to have an unbalanced final schedule unless the NCAA pushes the NCAA Tournament back, which they're considering—but more on a one-week-later timeline than a "May Madness" timeline.

The Standings

*Torvik includes projections for games that have been postponed, KenPom does not.

Teams are mostly settling into their spots in the advanced rankings pecking order, with the four top-ten squads, a couple tiers in the middle, and Nebraska hanging just below 100th. The exception is Rutgers, which has seen their offense plummet after a hideous loss to MSU and a less-hideous one to OSU. After looking like they might move into the top 15, they're now threatening to drop out of the top 40.

[Hit THE JUMP for trying to pin down Maryland, OSU's injury issues, the league's most indispensable players, and more.]