eric ayala

While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

• May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
• June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
• July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)
Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)
Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]

Scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Rutgers 51, Nebraska 72
• Illinois 76, Michigan 53
• Wisconsin 69, Purdue 73
• Indiana 58, MSU 64
• Minnesota 65, PSU 84
• Northwestern 60, Maryland 55
• MSU 50, Michigan 69
• Nebraska 64, Iowa 102
• Illinois 73, OSU 68
• Indiana 58, Purdue 67
• Rutgers 77, Minnesota 70 (OT)
• Michigan 64, MSU 70
• Wisconsin 73, Iowa 77
• Nebraska 78, Northwestern 79
• PSU 66, Maryland 61

As you're probably aware, Illinois closed strong enough to whinge about Michigan ducking, uh, Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana. Purdue, meanwhile, took advantage of Ohio State's tough late-season schedule to slip past them for the #4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. On the other end, Maryland stumbled to the finish line, though they're still in good shape for an NCAA bid.

The Final Regular Season Standings

Indiana and Minnesota are missing the tournament barring miracle BTT runs. Incidentally, there are rumors that both Archie Miller and Richard Pitino will be looking for new jobs this offseason.

The Actual All-Conference Awards

Are a debacle. They will be discussed in a separate post.

[Hit THE JUMP for awards that make sense.]

Maryland's Senior Day took on a game of destiny feel from the early going. The afternoon's primary honoree, Anthony Cowan, scored the first points. Jalen Smith gave Michigan's big men a difficult challenge. Most difficult to overcome, the Terp shooters—who've been wayward for most of the season—kept connecting on three-pointers.

David DeJulius did his damndest to keep the Wolverines in the game anyway, scoring a career-high 20 points on 12 shooting possessions in 20 minutes on the floor. His contributions plus strong offensive games from Franz Wagner (15 points on 11 shooting possessions) and Zavier Simpson (13 points, six assists) kept Michigan hanging around until the end. The third bad outing in four games from Isaiah Livers, however, made it tough to keep pace—he mustered six points on 2/8 shooting from the floor.

Scoring wasn't really the issue, though. Maryland scored 1.30 points per possession, the fourth-worst mark Michigan has allowed this season. While star center Jalen Smith only made 1/5 three-pointers, the mere threat of his outside shot changed the way the Wolverines defended, and the extra attention paid to him opened up opportunities for others. Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins, both languishing near 30% as three-point shooters this season, each made 3/4 shots from beyond the arc to score 19 and 15 points, respectively. Cowan hit 7/9 two-pointers with Michigan's big men often drawn away from the hoop, finishing with 20 points and eight assists.

Smith, for his part, was a nightmare when he wasn't shooting from the outside. He scored 18 points, with his lone triple a deflating 35-foot runner to beat the first-half buzzer. He pulled down three offensive rebounds among his 11 boards. On defense, he added four blocks and a steal. Michigan only made five shots in the restricted area; Maryland hit 12.

Eric Ayala, presumably after sinking an unlikely dagger [Sherman]

Some of the defensive issues for the Wolverines were communication breakdowns. Some were personnel problems borne from having to match up with Smith. Some were just bad luck; seemingly every time Michigan made a push, Ayala canned a tough jumper to kill the momentum.

In fact, the box score shows a remarkably even game with a critical difference. Maryland pulled down only two more offensive rebounds and committed one fewer turnover than Michigan, and their three-point advantage on five extra attempts at the free-throw line only occurred because of late intentional fouling. Both teams attempted 20 three-pointers; the Terps hit eight to Michigan's six. Both teams attempted 30 two-pointers; Maryland made 20 to the Wolverines's 18.

Meanwhile, Simpson became the first player I can remember to foul out between free-throw attempts when a DJ Carstensen-led crew reviewed his fall after getting hammered at the rim by Smith with under 30 seconds left in a game that was functionally over. Simpson helped break a hard fall by grabbing Smith's jersey, which tugged the mesh but did nothing to put Smith in harm. Despite, you know, the conference going over this very play with this very ref to correct this very problem, Simpson got called for a flagrant that fouled him out of the game. Jon Teske had to sub in to take the second free throw. His miss was initially credited to Simpson, presumably because StatBroadcast isn't prepared for officials to be this incompetent.

At least that one didn't impact the outcome of a rivalry game.

Anyway, Michigan was locked into the 8/9 game against Rutgers regardless of this game's outcome, while Maryland gets to celebrate a shared Big Ten title that nearly slipped out of their grasp down the stretch. You'll probably forget any details from this game within a week. Except the Carstensen fiasco. Good lord, man. Get it together.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]