DAM DONE BROKE

2024 G Justin Pippen committed to Michigan, as expected, and then a name not even on the board also popped up to do the same: North Texas PG Rubin Jones. On Wednesday Sam Webb started referencing a guy who was coming but was keeping it low profile; that is Jones. On Saturday Yale C Danny Wolf dropped, and Auburn PG Tre Donaldson today. A semblance of a roster now takes shape.

Matt D has a full hello post up on Pippen that is the standard; go check that out. In addition, a late breaking industry takes:

Justin Pippen is one of the biggest risers in the 2024 class in the midst of a steep development curve.

Late-bloomer that still has plenty of upside in the tank to become a dynamic scorer and playmaker in Ann Arbor. https://t.co/qpauabe5dK

— Travis Branham (@TravisBranham_) April 19, 2024

He's a guy who will try to break into the lineup in year one but if he follows in the footsteps of the rest of his family he'll have a couple years of building before a breakout. Excellent pickup from the perspective of this team, which is likely to load up on one- and two-year solutions in the portal; those guys should clear out just as Pippen is (hopefully) emerging into a star.

Matt's also going over the other two guys, but to tide you over some less-informed takes follow.

Rubin Jones is an interesting dude. He's been at North Texas for four years, starting on a couple of teams that finished 57th and 31st in Kenpom. This year Grant McCasland left for Texas Tech and the 6'5" Jones moved from small forward to, uh, point guard. His usage shot up almost eight points, and his ORTG shot up 15 points. His assist rate of 27 was top 200 nationally. Volume here is low because Jones missed 11 games, and the two-point shooting is a yikes 39%. OTOH, he was 42% on threes (and 36% on 346 career attempts) and is a ballhawk (top 100 steal rate) with a reasonable foul rate.

Jones's poor two point shooting is largely about going to the rim and not getting good results there. The large majority of his twos are at the rim (94 attempts), with runners (28), jumpers (23), and the occasional hook (8) rounding out the numbers. There are a couple of caveats here: almost all of his half-court twos came as a pick and roll ball handler. He was 54th percentile in those situations. That's not great but it's not as bad as "39% on twos" makes it seem. PNR ball handler offense is not efficient, generally. The other caveat is that he had 16% of his attempts in transition, where he was very bad, on a North Texas team that was close to dead last nationally in offensive tempo.

Jones isn't likely to become a plus finisher at the rim but the stats paint the picture of an offensively limited team on which Jones had to take a lot of bailout shots. Jones had 8% of his attempts at the rim assisted and 0% of his other twos. He's not an efficient primary creator because you can run drop coverage on him and he doesn't have a pull-up game. I think there's upside there in May's offense, which spreads out the playmaking responsibility.

The other side of the ball is a major selling point. Jones was on the CUSA All-Defense team a year ago and, while we supply the usual individual defensive stats caveat the last three years he's been 91st, 88th, and 85th percentile in PPG ceded on field goal attempts, per Synergy. On/Off splits are promising, too. North Texas was almost 10 points per 100 possessions worse on defense when Jones was on the bench and this wasn't because of anomalous three-point shooting. North Texas forced more turnovers, gave up significantly fewer OREBs, and fouled more when Jones was on the bench.

If Michigan can put Jones in a situation where he's attacking closeouts instead of perpetually being a PNR ballhandler his two point efficiency should improve, and then you've got a guy with a long track record of being a good shooter and a great defender who you could hypothetically plug in anywhere 1-3.

[After THE JUMP: rounding it out]

Danny Wolf is Moe Wagner with some slider adjustments. He's a bit bigger and slightly heavier—no, he is not going to play the four—but has the same inside-out game with three-point shooting and the ability to put the ball on the deck for two dribbles and get to the rim. He was 85th percentile as a catch and shoot guy, and those were virtually all assisted threes. He was contest-immune on those—nice to be seven feet tall. Any situation where Wolf took a dribble before shooting was a disaster; he was 4 of 32 off the bounce. He's a skilled passer, particularly from the high post.

Two thirds of Wolf's shots were at the rim, where he was relatively mediocre (60%, 64th percentile) relative to the competition level and the fact that 42% of his makes there were assisted. He had a decent block rate but he's not an above the rim guy. Also, Wolf's performance against Kenpom top 100 teams was ugly: eight games, 80 ORTG, 35/28/59 shooting.

But! In contrast to a guy like Rubin Jones, who is more or less a finished product, Wolf is a rising true junior center who blew up in year two. He has plenty of upside left to explore. None of it is going to make him an intimidating rim protector, but he's got another level to get to with his efficiency. 

Tre Donaldson looks like a guy who has upside outside of Bruce Pearl's offense, which doesn't have a lot of structure. Donaldson took mostly jumpers; he was 7th percentile in the number of catch and shoot opportunities he got and 91st percentile at canning them. He was okay off the bounce; his problem was that he was forced into way too many pull-ups.

The C+S numbers are a little wobbly since it's just 42 attempts; if we go back to his freshman year he was 98th percentile on 21 C+S opportunities. Still not a great sample size but there's a hint that he's good in that department; now he plays for a coach who dialed up buckets of unguarded C+S opportunities the last couple years at FAU.

Donaldson is a plus rebounder for a guard; he has an 11% DREB rate, which isn't quite in Derrick Walton territory but isn't that far away.

SO NOW WHAT

Michigan is perceived as the heavy leader for FAU C Vlad Goldin and OSU CG Roddy Gayle. Assuming a nine-man rotation, if those recruitments come to fruition six of those nine would be locked in. Starters 1 through 3 in some variety would be Donaldson, Gayle, and Rubin. Goldin and Wolf would be your center tandem, and we can pencil Will Tschetter in for some amount of time at the 4. One of the young guys can take 10 MPG, or possibly a rotation of them. That's seven. 

The main remaining questions are "who starts at the 4?" and "who is the primary backup 1-3?"

POWER FORWARD

I mean, it could be Tschetter. If it is Tschetter Michigan still needs another guy at the 4, so that doesn't change the content of this section.

2024 F Khani Rooths is still out there. So is 2024 F Liam McNeeley, who is listed as a small forward most places but is 6'8" and probably a PF for Dusty May.

One portal guy has been to campus, and this was a stealth thing a la Rubin. Freshman Alabama PF Sam Walters hit up Michigan after taking in Ohio State; that was reported as Walters was literally on campus. Walters, the #86 player in the country last year, is a gangly 6'10" guy who did about one thing on offense: make catch and shoot threes. His spot-up numbers are insane: 1.5 PPP, which was 100th percentile to Synergy—apparently unaware that 100 is not a percentile. All but seven of his C+S attempts last year were threes, and he hit 53%.

His next most frequent offensive activity was transition, where he was miserable. He wasn't good at the rim but he wasn't horrible, and as a 6'10" freshman checking in at under 200 pounds the upside there is considerable. Add it up and you get 48/39/83 shooting splits and a 122 ORTG on 18% usage in about 12 minutes a game. I am intrigued. He looks like the kind of guy who could have a sophomore or junior year explosion and then be a lottery pick.

The other options are more speculative. Michigan is on a few contact lists. The first is freshman Duke F Sean Stewart. Spencer took an OV to Michigan as a recruit and apparently has some connection to Dusty May, so Michigan has a decent chance to make Spencer's not-so-long list. He is a no-shoot PF with monster rebounding numbers and thus a slightly odd fit for May's offense but you can probably make it work.

Second: USF F Kasean Pryor. Everyone is after this dude for the same reasons he was so intriguing when he popped up on our radar a week ago, so a bit of a longshot despite the AA connection. 

Third: Manhattan F Seydou Traore. 98 ORTG On 21% usage for a horrible Manhattan team, 49/26/80 splits with a ton of DREBs, blocks, and steals for a 6'7" guy.

SIXTH MAN

Michigan has 120 minutes 1-3 and if we ballpark Jones, Donaldson, and Gayle at 30 each that leaves 30, which could be enough to entice another major portal target to jump aboard. FWIW, Jones spent the large majority of his junior season as a "bench" player who played just under 30 MPG and seems like the kind of guy who doesn't care about the starter title as long as the job gets done, so May can probably still pitch a starting slot.

Option one: sit tight and see if Johnnell Davis shakes out. As it stands Nimari Burnett is still on the roster—it is odd that he hasn't hit the portal or announced a return yet—and he would be a very reasonable option for 20 minutes of solid play. Then you just need one of Durral Brooks, GWIII, Justin Pippen, or (maybe/probably) Lorenzo Cason to be a 10 MPG option.

Option two: go get St Mary's guard Aidan Mahaney, oh he of the middle school workout sessions led by Justin Joyner. Mahaney has not released a list of top schools yet or made any visits. If he wants to come you stick him in the three guard lineup and suddenly it's a four man rotation of really good players.

Option three: wild card! It's portal szn, baby, things can get crazy.

WHAT ELSE, THEN

Assuming Goldin, Gayle, Starting Four, and Win Now Portal Guard join up you have two spots left. As it stands those are occupied by Burnett and Jace Howard, but I assume WNPG and Burnett are mutually exclusive and Michigan has the flexibility to make Howard a walk-on. They could add another two players; those players would have to be okay with a long shot at minutes in year one. Lorenzo Cason and Elijah Elliott, the FAU decommits on the market, are options.

A developmental C is another possibility since Goldin is out the door next year and Wolf will be a senior, but there isn't anyone on the radar at either the high school or college level currently.

MISCELLANEOUS

Terrance Williams is apparently visiting Notre Dame.

App St C Justin Abson was supposed to visit M today but is instead at Xavier, in case anyone was worried about Vlad Goldin.

St Mary's PF Joshua Jefferson is at Iowa State this weekend. 

SPECULATIVE PERCENTAGES BIT

• Vlad Goldin: 95%.
• Roddy Gayle Jr: 70% –> 80%. Still no one else on the radar it seems. Moseley balled him.
• Lorenzo Cason: 60%.
• Aiden Mahaney: 40%.
• Khani Rooths: 50% –> 30%. Emergence of another major PF target.
• Sam Walters: off the board –> 30%. Hello, long shooty man.
• Joshua Jefferson: 20%.
• Johnell Davis: 40% –> 10%. Reaching "I'm sayin' there's a chance" territory.
• Elijah Elliott: 5% –> 10%. The kid FAU reporter says Elliott has received interest from Michigan and a number of mid-majors.
• Terrance Williams: 30% –> 5%. Seems like if there was going to be action here it would have happened.
• Trey Townsend: 5%.
• Kolby King: 5%.
• Liam McNeeley: 1%.

Currently pegging PF as 30% Rooths, 30% Walters, 20% Jefferson, 20% the field.

Off the board, in a good way:

• Justin Pippen (previously 90%) to Michigan.
• Tre Donaldson (previously 80%) to Michigan.
• Danny Wolf (previously 70%) to Michigan.

Off the board, in a way that would have been bad if Michigan didn't pick up most of a basketball team over the weekend:

• Aden Holloway (previously 40%) committed to Bama. Guess that visit this weekend wasn't a thing?
• Connor Essegian (previously 40%) committed to Nebraska. Never got on campus, clear that May was targeting more proven guys. Probably should have dropped him more over the course of last week.
• Dante Maddox (previously 5%): committed to Xavier.
• Alijah Martin (previously 5%): committed to Florida.

SDSU F Micah Parrish wasn't on the board but he had Michigan on a list of six; he went off the board to OSU with a quickness. Meanwhile FAU G Nick Boyd committed to SDSU.

SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SPECULATIVE ROSTER

Bold: locked in. Italics: new. Strikethrough: removed.

PG: Tre Donaldson (Jr), Durral Brooks (Fr), Lorenzo Cason (Fr)
SG: Aiden Mahaney (Jr), Roddy Gayle (Jr), George Washington III (So), Justin Pippen (Fr)
Also SG: Rubin Jones (Sr*), Nimari Burnett (Jr*), Jace Howard (Sr*)
PF: Khani Rooths (Fr), Will Tschetter (Jr)
C: Vlad Goldin(Sr*), Danny Wolf (Jr)