Early '24 Michigan Football Vegas odds
Texas at Michigan +2.5
[Edited] Michigan -11.5 @Washington
Michigan +7 at OSU
O/U Total Wins 9.5 (OSU at 10.5 highest along with Oregon)
These lines seem fair. But, given that it's the second game of the season replacing basically entire starters on offense, maybe Texas spread is a bit low? Great early season measuring stick. If we win 10 games, we'll make the playoff and I'd be happy.
Thoughts?
February 19th, 2024 at 10:26 PM ^
FWIW - The Washington game is in Seattle. Makes that spread even more eye opening!
February 19th, 2024 at 10:28 PM ^
My bad
February 19th, 2024 at 10:35 PM ^
The bluest skies you've ever seen in Seattle, and the hills the maizest maize in Seattle...
February 20th, 2024 at 9:23 AM ^
Looking forward to visiting Husky stadium for that one.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:29 PM ^
It’s the most picturesque stadium in college football.. the view of Lake Washington from the stands is something else. You’ll have a great time in Seattle.
February 19th, 2024 at 10:42 PM ^
Washington loses their great QB, best RB, 1st round WR and possible 1st round OT, as well as their best player on a so-so defense. Michigan loses most of their offense but returns what should be an outstanding defense. There’s your spread.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:26 AM ^
Yeah, they only scored 13 points with Penix. They should have trouble scoring any points in their eunuch year.
February 20th, 2024 at 9:43 AM ^
And their coach?...
February 21st, 2024 at 12:39 PM ^
Michigan lost theirs too, so that’s a wash.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:12 AM ^
For a similar reason, the TX game jumps out. If home field is 2.5 points they're saying TX is 5 points better on a neutral site. +2.5 in Ann Arbor is saying something.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:49 AM ^
It's +2.5 because the offense is one giant...
February 20th, 2024 at 11:38 AM ^
You'd struggle too if you had just lost your Penix.
February 19th, 2024 at 10:29 PM ^
Seems reasonable to me. It's too bad the 2024 schedule doesn't look more like the 2023 schedule. (At least 4 easy games before we get into the harder ones.) We could really use more game reps to get all the new guys comfortable with each other and used to running the systems under game conditions.)
February 20th, 2024 at 9:04 AM ^
I'm not a fan of expansion, but I am so pleased with our schedule this year. So many games I want to go see. Struggled last year finding games to attend. Ended up at OSU, road MSU and road Maryland (local) plus the playoffs. Can't ask for a better end of year for sure, but Sept/Oct was not good. This year we've got Texas, MSU, Oregon and USC all at home, plus I can't miss playing at Washington.
In spite of the step up in competition with a team not quite as good, I much prefer this year's schedule. It's a 12 team playoff. Win the ones we should win and get one of Texas, Oregon or OSU and we're a lock. Lose all three and we're borderline.
We'll have exciting football to watch all year rather than snoozers in Sept/Oct. Prove it on the field.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:38 AM ^
Meh-
I have already purchased my USC tickets and excited for the schedule but I would rather have last years on cruise control until Penn State on the way to the 23 NATTY!
February 19th, 2024 at 10:31 PM ^
Sorry guys, Michigan at Washington. Help Mods?
February 19th, 2024 at 10:56 PM ^
Will do...
February 19th, 2024 at 11:00 PM ^
Thank you!
February 19th, 2024 at 10:41 PM ^
9-3 or 8-4. Accept it. Michigan is about to put 18 players into the NFL draft, which would be a record. Accept a down year for UM, the 2024 schedule is the toughest in all of CFB. 2025 UM should make some waves.
#GoBlue
February 19th, 2024 at 11:38 PM ^
I guess I just don't think the drop off on offense will be that great. We will probably lose a few because JJ isn't around to bail us out, but the offense as a whole has the pieces to remain very good in the areas that have gotten them to where they are now. Assuming the defense doesn't lose anymore major pieces, it should be able to carry the team. The success they have had has largely been on the back of the defense anyway, as the offense controls the game with a crushing ground attack and safe passing game - while playing clean and efficient. Nothing about next year's offense makes me feel that isn't still achievable.
February 20th, 2024 at 5:24 PM ^
The success the last three years was as much about the Oline as the Dline. And next years Oline is a massive question mark. With so many new starters its really hard to know how well they will mesh and how long it will take them to come together.
Question marks at QB and Oline should given any one pause... this will be one of the biggest crapshoot seasons in recent memory.
February 19th, 2024 at 11:46 PM ^
I don't think they will be that bad. They probably won't be 15-0 again but it should be a very good team that could win the big ten if OSU is overrated again.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:00 AM ^
Lot of teams have tough schedules next year. Perks of mega-conferences. Take Florida for example:
vs. #24 Miami
vs. Samford
vs. #25 Texas A&M
@ Miss State
vs. UCF
@ #16 Tennessee
vs. #23 Kentucky
vs. #1 Georgia
@ #4 Texas
vs. #12 LSU
vs. #6 Ole Miss
@ #15 Florida State
February 20th, 2024 at 7:07 AM ^
Those last seven games are quite a test. I’ll be wondering which SEC fan bases will get restless this season - and, when exactly they do.
February 20th, 2024 at 8:07 AM ^
Looks like a lot of quality losses to me. I'd say Florida ends the season 5-7 and ranked #20.
February 20th, 2024 at 8:10 AM ^
Florida has a brutal schedule, but I'll believe YTM and TAMU at 24 and 25 when I see it. They're overrated until they prove otherwise.
February 20th, 2024 at 2:07 PM ^
Then again... look at OSU's schedule. I'd bitch if I had to watch that pathetic home slate. Easiest schedule in the B1G.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:23 AM ^
But don't overlook the likelihood that M will put 10+ in the 2025 draft as well.
It will look different on offense, but the team should be pretty dang good.
February 20th, 2024 at 4:21 AM ^
We get better after Grant, Graham, Johnson, and both safeties go to the draft? Im not so sure. This team is built on defense especially the dline and secondary. The entire board is saying expect a down(ish) year which gives me lots of hope. Anytime the board is unison in anything youve got a fighting chance the opposite happens.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:14 AM ^
I'm expecting the 2025 to be the down year, after we lose the studs in the rising junior class.
We gave up only 15, 24, 20, and 13 to PSU, OSU, Bama, & Wash. I expect the 2024 defense to be elite again, and hopefully the offense can possess the ball sufficiently and score in that ballpark to be competitive in the big games.
I think we make the playoffs.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:29 AM ^
2025 is absolutely going to be a full rebuild
February 20th, 2024 at 6:11 AM ^
Co-signed.
And I’m totally fine w that. New HC, new staff, new QB, basically all new OL (albeit experienced) and thin at WR. Plus an absolutely brutal schedule.
I’ll be wearing my national championship gear all season and know better days are right around the corner.
February 20th, 2024 at 7:47 AM ^
I think 8-9 wins seems like a great year next year. We have a great defense, but hard to win more than 9 games without a solid QB. Hopefully one rises to the occasion.
February 20th, 2024 at 8:42 AM ^
This defense is better than 2021.
Schedule is harder, but I could see us as “better Iowa” , winning 10 games, and making the playoff, if any of the QBs give us McNamara level performance.
would not be surprised to see us in the B1G championship game.
February 20th, 2024 at 8:35 AM ^
Florida's schedule is crazy this coming season. Wowsa! Definitely a contender for toughest next year.
February 20th, 2024 at 9:22 AM ^
What makes you think 2025 UM will make more waves than 2024 UM?
February 20th, 2024 at 12:04 PM ^
The offense may be better but too many studs on defense will be going to the NFL. I'm sure we'll have some good player development on defense but it may not be the elite level. We may only win 8 games in 2025. I think this may best chance to reach the playoffs, before the full rebuild occur in 25 and 26.
February 20th, 2024 at 9:31 AM ^
I get it that the optimism for this team is not close to where it was last year, but why do we have to accept that we are going to for sure lose 3-4 games? I believe our defense will be better than last year. There is not a game on our schedule that is a for sure loss at this point. If we beat Texas at home, who knows what this team can accomplish. I think it is time for Michigan fans to realize we have a program that reloads now instead of rebuilds. Accept that!
February 20th, 2024 at 11:30 AM ^
I wouldn't go so far as to just accept a 4-loss season. Not with our returning defense. I'm thinking the regular-season floor is 3 losses and the likeliest scenario is 2.
Big games: OSU, Texas, Oregon, USC, Wash. The last 2 are likely wins. The first 3 are very tough. But we just need to win 1 out of those 3, which seems reasonable.
And I think we land a starting QB, WR, and CB from the portal.
10-2. CFP.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:33 AM ^
I agree with you about a 9 win minimum expectation. Only 3 teams on the schedule can match up physically, and winning 1 of 3 is doable with 2 of them at home.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:45 AM ^
Agreed.
I think 9-3 is BEST case scenario but 8-4 (and possibly 7-5) is actually more likely. UM's offense is probably going to suck donkey balls and the defense won't be as good as expected with the loss of every single defensive coach.
Texas, Oregon and OSU are basically auto-losses (even with Harbaugh back I think UM probably would have lost at least two of those) while USC and Washington (I can't believe UM is an 11 point favorite over Washington in Seattle...take the points and the Huskies) will be toss-ups.
I imagine this post will get heavily negged but I am pretty confident in my prediction of seeing UM struggle next season. I hope to be proven incorrect.
February 19th, 2024 at 10:58 PM ^
I've got 16 wins.
February 19th, 2024 at 11:56 PM ^
Texas is absolutely loaded. They return a lot of talent on offense, including an Heisman front runner at Quarterback and they have hit the portal hard to fill holes. We have no idea who will be our QB and we’ve lost our top six OL, RB1, and WR1. We have a new Head Coach, a new OC, an entirely new defensive staff, and we’ve lost all our depth on defense, but we’re only a 2.5 point dog against a preseason top 5 team. If we win or even come close to covering the spread, I don’t think we’ll have any problems reaching 10 wins.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:20 AM ^
Texas also lost 90% of their receiving production, their 1k+ yard RB projected for the 2nd round, and, most importantly, their projected 1st round & 2nd round DTs.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:32 AM ^
And Texas is coached by Sark and playing in the SEC. Law of averages says Texas won't repeat last year's record.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
The stadium crew needs to leave some Jack Daniels in the visiting locker room before Texas arrives.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:40 AM ^
As much as they do replace a lot, I think you are understating how much leadership and experience they still bring back. They didn't just have one magical year. They have 3 years of playing for Championships, and learning how to win the big games. Will Johnson, Mason Graham, Rod Moore, Donovan Edwards, Colston Loveland, Makari Paige and Kalel Mullings have all been big pieces of the last 3 years and provide a solid foundation.
The rest of the team may be less "proven" but it's not like they will be 1st and 2nd year guys being thrown to the wolves. The O-line starters are all at minimum 3rd year players, and whoever the QB is will also be at minimum a 3rd year player - maybe even a 7th!
They won't be as deep as the 23' team, but this is far from a total rebuild.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:06 AM ^
I think Jack Tuttle will surprise people in a good way against Texas.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:31 PM ^
From your lips to God’s ear.