Signgate The Sixth: Nevermind All That?
And then it was fine? Yesterday I laid out what I thought was the most likely scenario in which the NCAA did something of significant consequence to Michigan: leverage the new head coach responsibility bylaw to drop a show cause on Jim Harbaugh for stuff Connor Stalions did. IMO, this is still a concern, but it looks like less of one now that ~all paysites are reporting that whatever roadblocks this investigation had put up towards Harbaugh's new contract are gone:
There are currently no roadblocks between Michigan and Jim Harbaugh to get a deal done.
— Josh Henschke (@JoshHenschke) October 31, 2023
What we know, and what we don't, about how the university plans to proceed with extension talks.
Details: https://t.co/J3i6wWGvzL
Henschke followed that up with a tweet saying that there is "some hypothesizing that the contract will likely mean Michigan is Jim Harbaugh's last job." For his part, Sam Webb posted an article headlined "Harbaugh extension process no longer paused."
It seems likely Michigan will announce a new contract that makes Harbaugh the highest-paid coach in the Big Ten, and it sounds like for the first time it will have a significant buyout if Harbaugh wants to leave. Given that he's been at Michigan for ten years and has never had anything like that in his contract, if that does come to fruition it would be a statement that he's sticking in Ann Arbor long-term.
A lot of people are taking this as good news in regards to the NCAA violations Stalions was racking up. I agree, at least partially. It beggars belief that Michigan would move forward with the contract unless they had completed their review of everyone's laptops, phones, etc., and found no evidence that Stalions's "vast network" was anything other than his personal project. Certainly at Harbaugh's level, and likely all the way down the list. The contract proceeding means that if we were going to hear about additional suspensions/firings/personnel being launched into the sun, we would hear about them now. No news is good news.
[After THE JUMP: sigh: however]
However! Even if Stalions was acting entirely on his own, there is still the matter of the HC responsibility bylaw. AFAIK it is so new that Harbaugh is going to be the first case, more or less. Anything could happen. In general, you should bet on "the NCAA will do nothing" in almost all cases. But here you've got a guy who the enforcement committee clearly hates. He's coming off a three-game suspension that appears to be for stonewalling on some piddly charges. A guy with a blood vendetta against Harbaugh is literally on the committee, and even if he has to recuse himself from this case he's probably going to be trying to influence it in any way he can.
I have no idea what the chances of this transpiring are but they're not zero.
But the contract? All coaching contracts give the school an out if the NCAA comes down on them. Harbaugh's current contract has this in the section detailing when the university can fire Harbaugh for cause:
Unless that language changes in the updated contract the U isn't going out on a limb here. If the NCAA does give Harbaugh a show cause they could fire him for cause. In fact, it is dead certain that at some point they are going to have the ability to fire Harbaugh for cause. The next bullet:
Probation and a fine are definitely happening.
Michigan is not going to fire Harbaugh for cause unless they have absolutely no other choice; this section asserts that while the contract going forward is evidence of several good things, it is not evidence that Jim Harbaugh is personally in the clear with the NCAA.
NEW: @TheAthletic has obtained more photos of the goatee'd sunglasses person on the Central Michigan sideline at Michigan State.
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) October 31, 2023
CMU is looking into whether this is Connor Stalions.
Story: https://t.co/79siEcZ89r pic.twitter.com/R5AyslTIWF
He's deceiving me, it cuts my security. CMU is investigating whether Stalions was on their sideline for the MSU-CMU game in week one this year. (It was on Friday, thus opening up the possibility of attending.) I believe they're going to find that he was, and that he dressed up in CMU coaching gear to access places he wasn't supposed to. You only investigate who a person is when you don't, you know, know who he is. Because he's employed by you.
This doesn't matter: one more game isn't going to significantly move the needle when Stalions was taping 30. It should further indicate just how off the rails this guy was, and certainly makes it more believable that he was, uh, dedicated enough to do all this on his own. He's wearing sunglasses at night.
I guess the good news is that Ed Norton's going to play him in the movie. That's a big get.
Nothing is happening soon. Pete Thamel appeared on Pat McAfee's show and said that "this will not get expedited and there's no mechanism for it." 2023 punishments are not happening from the NCAA. The Big Ten would have to be mad enough to make Fox furious, reduce the conference's chances of making the playoff, reduce all their bottom lines, and deal with Michigan saber-rattling about going to the SEC. That's not happening either. This team is in the clear.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^
I once snuck backstage after a concert when I was 20, posing as a secretary with the record label. It was exciting, I was out of place, but I felt like I got away with murder at the time. There are people out there who LOVE to take risks. The riskier, the better.
October 31st, 2023 at 10:00 PM ^
Can we just appreciate the extremely high level of twitter sleuthing going on right now regarding Connor Chips Gate? This is what Elon had in mind when he spent those billions.
November 1st, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
I've heard the shirt and hat matching the other sideline guys at CMU, but anyone else notice he has the same shoes as the other guys around him in this video? If it's CS, that's an extremely high attention to detail.
October 31st, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
Seriously looks photoshopped looking at edges where supposedly CS is next to or behind something. Probably just my phone but this stuff is ludicrous speed we’re going plaid now, so…could be, actually? 🧐😅
October 31st, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
I'm so confused about Stalions at CMU-MSU. I mean, other than that he's, uh, different. But as Sam Webb pointed out, if you wanted to be at this game, why not buy a ticket, sit in the stands, and use your iPhone? Isn't that more useful (and less dangerous) than going on the sideline? I want it to make sense!
I also assume that since he somehow sneaked past CMU, this was only somehow discovered because of 4th and 1 Investigations (or whoever), so, kudos to them.
But as nonsensical as it is, I guess it seems like it must be Stalions because it's clearly not a CMU employee (as Brian points out) and you would think someone out there would be like, yo, that's me, if it wasn't Stalions. Well, I guess it could be some other rando who sneaked onto the sideline and doesn't want to get caught.
Connor, this particular move was foolhardy.
October 31st, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
but legendary
October 31st, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
This is why I think the main failure on Harbaugh's part was a failure of imagination. We already have Shemy as documented proof that maybe he should vet hires better. And even in the best case we are getting whacked with a hefty fine at best because of Conor Stalion's malfeasances, and sure we have to own that.
But the main reason Harbaugh didn't specifically pre-forbid Conor doing the world's worst cloak-and-dagger gambit for a shitty CMU @ MSU game is the same reason you don't specifically tell your kid not to write out the quadratic formula on your neighbor's driveway with their own poop - because it's such an outlandish notion that you reasonably assume no sane person would even entertain that idea in the first place.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:53 PM ^
haha you haven't met my kid! J/K... well said
October 31st, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
This was clearly Connor’s spring training game where he makes sure he’s up to speed, able to read those signs from Michigan State, and is ready for East Carolina the next day.
October 31st, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
ESPN reporting that CMU "is investigating" is not the same as saying "we have no idea who that guy is, he must be Conor Stalions."
Right now, that's a leap not supported in evidence. And everyone--I mean, everyone--needs to stop leaping regarding this issue.
- WSJ reports as fact stuff about Harbaugh's contract that's a flat-out fabrication.
- DFP reports the travel activity of Harbaugh's lawyer, and supposed communications he's had with Michigan, that are flat-out fabrications.
- Pete Thamel of ESPN's breathless reporting on this issue has already made a number of false and misleading statements--not to mention blatant editorializing.
- WaPo article runs with a number of misleading-at-best statements.
Please, folks, please--if you don't know, please don't speculate.
Thanks.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:10 PM ^
But if you See Something. Say something.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
Please, folks, please--if you don't know, please don't speculate.
No chance. I'm not a reporter. And I'm not on here saying "Still trying to check with my primary source but..."
I'm here to speculate and I think I'm pretty upfront about that.
As for your other point, that I shouldn't presume that CMU doesn't know who it is...okay, I hear you, and I'm always willing to update my speculation based on new information. But currently I would say signs point toward it being Stalions. And frankly one of my main reasons for believing that is how Brian says he believes that's what will come out. That's not him making an educated guess, they way he's making guesses about what our punishment will be from the NCAA.
I'll grant you that he's not saying why he believes that, so it may be wrong.
October 31st, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
As I wrote above it's a delusion of grandeur. He wrote a manifesto and called it that. He believed that he would be Michigan's head coach someday. He is all about himself and believes that he is capable of things that other people are not capable of. It's a classic case, actually, and what some call legendary or whatever is actually quite sad. He's going to crash and burn (basically has already) and, as another commenter asked last week, someone should keep an eye on him for his own good. This kind of ego injury is literally the kind that can kill someone from the inside out.
October 31st, 2023 at 8:41 PM ^
Gen Z does espionage
October 31st, 2023 at 5:18 PM ^
How is it that a credentialed individual requires an investigation....CMU doesn't know who is on their own sidelines? Call the NCAA!
October 31st, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^
I'd love for Harbaugh to be here for a long, long time.
But I'd also love for him to be here 5 years or so, get at least one national championship, and then go get that Superbowl.
November 1st, 2023 at 12:40 AM ^
Well, he can get that this year.
October 31st, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^
I’m assuming the Stalions at CMU is the other “bad” news to drop some were mentioning last week?
October 31st, 2023 at 5:42 PM ^
I guess they figured people were too buy watching football on Saturday and Sunday to care...but then they dropped it in the middle of Monday night instead of the middle of the day so more likely someone just found it.
October 31st, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
Should've asked Bobby Valentine for some tips.
October 31st, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
Hold me Sopwith!!
November 1st, 2023 at 6:38 AM ^
Hey, that’s what I said in my email to President Ono!
October 31st, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
If the NCAA goes nuclear, then I would like them to do something about sign stealing to justify their wrath. If not, then why bother?
The sport needs to move away from the NCAA because pretending that this is a collegiate sport is silly when billions of dollars are involved.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
I don't care what anyone says, I don't think that is Stallions.
October 31st, 2023 at 8:04 PM ^
I don't care what anyone says either because I'm Christopher Walken and I can act.
This cat goes to great lengths to avoid the camera coverage when he knows the play is coming towards him on the sidelines.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:05 PM ^
(Sorry if it's been asked a million times before)
For someone who knows nothing about football (i.e., me): Why would a football team ever need to spend time "learning new signs"?
It the problem could be solved by assigning a number to each part of the playcall on a wristband; and then pairing each playcall with a card with one-use letters paired to random numbers (e.g., like A = +3, B = -5). So the QB would subtract/add that # to the play # posted on the sideline.
They could run the same formation #100 with two different calls A 97, B105... With similar plan for the other parts of the call (motion etc). The opponent couldn't use pattern matching b/c every play has a random number added to it.
Clunky but seems better than memorizing new signs (or running to the sideline like MSU haha)?
Obviously, there is zero chance that I've thought of something new. So there must be many reasons why this wouldn't work--what are they?
October 31st, 2023 at 6:22 PM ^
If one guy is sending in the signals, then an indicator can be used to identify which signal is the real play. If multiple people are sending in the signal, then you you alternate the guy who has the real play.
October 31st, 2023 at 10:24 PM ^
The system you propose would require either
(1) Huddling, in which case just run the play in, or
(2) All eleven players having to navigate this complex system and all coming up with the same answer.
Neither are optimal for hurry-up (even hurry up and wait) offenses.
November 1st, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Just have wristbands with numbers or letters for every play (e.g. "9" = Spider 2 Y Banana), and change the cards out every drive (so next drive, "14" = Spider 2 Y Banana)...
November 1st, 2023 at 5:21 PM ^
Changing the card every quarter seems like an easier thing to control.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
Someone needs to get a Connor Stallions tattoo and post a photo of it.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:09 PM ^
Who took all those photos?
October 31st, 2023 at 9:18 PM ^
OSU’s scout at the game, of course.
Wait a sec….
October 31st, 2023 at 6:11 PM ^
In a way they're in the clear, but if a show cause includes any vacated wins, that's still a gut punch for the current players.
October 31st, 2023 at 8:14 PM ^
No vacating wins. Sue to prevent if you have to.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:16 PM ^
Is Stalions/whoever it is on the CMU sideline actually doing something that looks like scouting - i.e., writing down notes or recording with his phone? Or is he just hanging around and watching the game?
October 31st, 2023 at 6:41 PM ^
He's memorizing the signals. Mind is a steel trap.
November 1st, 2023 at 1:37 AM ^
He probably has sunglasses that can record video.
November 1st, 2023 at 8:51 AM ^
so.....connor stalions is actually Colonel Flagg? CID? CIA? FBI?
October 31st, 2023 at 6:30 PM ^
The trickle of info has made the story seem much bigger than it is. It is big just due to the sheer insanity of Stallions plans, but many people want Michigans whole football program wrapped up in this and the rumormill is just losing steam now. No ones got anything on anyone but Connor and you know it wouldve been leaked if any real Michigan staff were linked
Im encouraged that theyre still going to sign the contract soon. That implies the university isnt going to just take some heavy handed punishment without pushback
October 31st, 2023 at 6:44 PM ^
you know it wouldve been leaked if any real Michigan staff were linked
Let's say 4th and 1 has the goods on this. I think you hold that back until Saturday morning of the Maryland game. If they had led with that, nothing else would have had any impact and since the NCAA can't really do anything to next year, it's not like dropping that early would stop us from killing OSU. It would just give us time to adjust to the news.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:39 PM ^
Speaking as an attorney who does white collar investigations with in-depth document review — there is no way in hell that M has completed a fulsome review of all of the relevant devices and electronic communications yet.
October 31st, 2023 at 8:19 PM ^
My MgoWife (who also does white collar investigations and specializes in complex document review) agrees with you 100%.
November 1st, 2023 at 1:07 AM ^
She’s got a heavy pen
November 1st, 2023 at 1:07 AM ^
You’re padding
October 31st, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
I don't know if that's Connor but it's a lot funnier if it is. He's getting fired at the end of this investigation (even if what he's done is not technically against the rules, that he got the program in hot water like this is still gonna get you canned when you're low level, just for the bad publicity you wrought) whether or not this is him. So I hope it is, because it's hilarious.
October 31st, 2023 at 9:37 PM ^
How to recover from being fired and still end up running the program will be pages 601-789 of the Manifesto.
Comments