Unverified Voracity Is Slippery
Sponsor Note. Annoyed by the fact that approximately 10% of UV links go to the Athletic? Well, tough nuts, buddy, they've got Brendan Quinn, Nick Baumgardner, and Bruce Feldman so that's how life is these days.
The good news is that the Athletic has hired damn near everyone so you can get coverage of all your teams in one place. Speaking as a beleaguered USMNT fan, they are best-in-class there as well.
Also good news: they're running a 40% off special if you use our link right here. No ads, no pop-ups, no clickbait. Even we can only say two of those three things.
Fumble numbers. We had the Mathlete run the numbers on Michigan's fumble rate and ahyup this is an absurd outlier. Here's a graph of fumbles lost on run plays during his D-1 college career (ie, Stanford and Michigan):
Over the years in his database the average teams fumble on 2.2% of plays and lose those 1.1% of the time; Harbaugh has been at 1.8% and 0.9%; this year it's 4.5% and 2.2%. So: Harbaugh teams generally fumble a little less than average and while that's probably just luck it is also luck, of the very bad and hair-pulling variety, that Michigan's losing fumbles at double the rate of an average team out of nowhere.
[After THE JUMP: Onwenu arises.]
Exit Mustapha Muhammad. Muhammad had fallen to fifth on the depth chart at TE, behind both a classmate and a true freshman, so now it's portal time for him. Timing is a little bit odd, so there might be an explanation beyond playing time.
Michigan returns their entire TE corps and currently has Matt Hibner and Nick Patterson in their 2020 class, so Muhammad's departure probably won't have much on-field impact.
I guess there must have been some typos. PFF put out a mid-season All-America team featuring two Michigan players on the first team: Ambry Thomas is first team "flex" and is currently leading the country in passer rating when targeted…
Lowest passer rating when targeted, Power-5 CBs (min 15 targets):
— Cam Mellor (@PFF_Cam) October 14, 2019
Ambry Thomas, Michigan: 17.2
Trevon Diggs, Alabama: 24.0
Keith Washington, WVU: 26.5
Al Blades Jr., Miami: 27.5
D'Shawn Jamison, Texas: 27.5
Michael Ojemudia, Iowa: 28.0
Jevon Holland, Oregon: 29.2
…and Mike Onwenu is first team at guard.
That latter is a bit of a surprise: Rivals has been publishing PFF numbers after games and Onwenu has not been grading out particularly well there. This was in fact a subplot in a UFR when Onwenu checked in with a +9.5 to me and emphatically not that to PFF, where ~64 is average:
Like Onwenu being bad?
uh
PFF gave him a 59.
uh
Onwenu, meanwhile, has consistently been graded as Michigan's best offensive player throughout the season, checking in with an overall grade of 81.8. …
His 83.1 grade in the run blocking department is the highest on the team, while his 81.8 mark as a pass blocker is second only to senior left guard Ben Bredeson's 93.
…giant question marks erupt from your head. There's got to be a disconnect somewhere; per Rivals Onwenu had a 67 against Illinois, a 59 against Rutgers, a 67 vs Iowa, and a 70 vs Wisconsin. (He did crush Army with a 91.) Either an intern is entering data wrong or there's some normalization step that isn't in the Rivals-published numbers. Supporting evidence: Kwity Paye apparently has an 87 grade and at no point have his game numbers touched that.
In any case, I'm happy to see that PFF is seeing approximately the same thing I am. Onwenu has consistently gotten heat from the crotchety old man segment of the fanbase when his play hasn't warranted it. Will this help? Absolutely not. But I didn't like being at such diametrical odds with the only other major service that charts games.
But the downside. The above All-America team and related tweets have four former Michigan players or commits: BC running back AJ Dillon, WVU CB Keith Washington, Minnesota CB Benjamin St-Juste, and Missouri DT Jordan Elliott. Elliott was probably too much of a flake to stick at Michigan even if he hadn't flipped to Texas—you'll note he didn't stick at Texas—but the other three guys are a wee bit painful.
Two point decisions, explained. Your inevitable Athletic link is Chris Vannini on the outbreak of aggressive two-point attempts:
Here’s the basic math when trailing by two touchdowns: Say you have a 50 percent chance of converting a two-point attempt. Across two potential attempts, you have a 50 percent chance of winning the game in regulation (by converting the first one and making the PAT), a 25 percent chance of going to overtime (missing first, making second) where you have a 50/50 shot and a 25 percent chance of losing in regulation (missing both).
That means you have a 62.5 percent chance of winning if you go for two first, compared to 50 percent if you play for overtime. Those numbers aren’t exact; they change based on team and obviously assume making the extra point, which Miami didn’t, but that’s the gist. The strategy is also backed up by a 2017 FiveThirtyEight study. …
This idea is gaining steam in the NFL. In 2018, the Eagles used the strategy, cutting a deficit to six instead of seven, giving themselves a chance to win on an extra point if they scored another touchdown. The Giants attempted the same thing a few weeks later, but they missed the attempt. It has come up again this season. Now this idea is spreading in the college game, and Miami wasn’t the first one.
I have to admit that I thought this was going to be a bridge too far for coaches. Going for two when you draw within nine is still controversial; I didn't think 2019 was the year that dependent trials broke through into the football mainstream. And I sure as hell didn't think that Pat Fitzgerald—who spent most of the offseason muttering about phones and how the Youth are poisoned by them—would be leading the charge.
Lack of homecoming halftime, explained. Sounds like the MMB got a ton of crap for ditching the traditional homecoming halftime show. They released a document describing what happened:
Reason for the change – the NCAA is examining ways to improve safety for everyone, necessitating changes to be made. Due to the lack of sideline space in Michigan Stadium, these changes pose unique obstacles. Visible changes that you may have noticed include a geographical reduction of dedicated media areas, limited numbers of media personnel on the sidelines, reduction of bench personnel to 60 non-players, elimination of pathways behind the home bench, and reduction in the number of issued field credentials and on-field auxiliary personnel (cheer, dance, visiting bands, and ROTC).
b. When the change occurred – The MMB & UMBAA were notified after the Athletic Directors’ (NCAA) meeting in April that changes were necessary. Unfortunately, due to the timeline, limited options for adapting the 2019 edition of “Blast” were available.
I don't get why the band sitting in the corner is a problem now when it hasn't been a problem for the last 100 years but at least it sounds like the pushback was loud and they'll do what they can to fix the situation.
UTLIV. This was obvious and is now official:
THIS JUST IN: Our game vs. Notre Dame (10/26) will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. #GoBlue 〽️ pic.twitter.com/JTJUSIuZe8
— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) October 14, 2019
I just like that "UTLIV" sounds like a drummer in a Swedish death metal band.
Yikes. Griffin Luce got ejected from Saturday's Clarkson game for this hit:
The hit in question: pic.twitter.com/lZNNHBKUof
— Bailey Johnson (@BaileyAJohnson_) October 14, 2019
And has been suspended for Friday's game against LSSU. Michigan held Cam York out on Saturday, which was painful as Michigan struggled to get anything going, but he should be able to return this weekend. Michigan had already decided to roll five defensemen late, leaving Jake Gingell on the bench, before the Luce hit—they don't appear to have much faith in anyone past their top six.
Etc.: Minnesota C Eric Curry out for the year with ACL tear. Approaching Poor Damn territory. "I was a scalper" long read is entertaining. A deep dive on the 2001 Northwestern offense. No break for Dantonio on his upcoming deposition. Will Lockwood profiled.
October 15th, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^
People are making too much of the fumbles. Admittedly, it's not great, but the only player who has fumbled more than once is Shea (not unexpected) and everybody is acting like Harbaugh and Gattis have been rubbing oil on the game balls and teaching the kids to hold it like a hot potato. Clean up the mesh issues, a little better pass protection and we'll be right as rain
October 15th, 2019 at 5:15 PM ^
I believe Charbonnet has fumbled twice.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:33 PM ^
No they're not. Turnovers can and do lose games. It's an issue and needs to correct itself.
October 15th, 2019 at 8:58 PM ^
It's not that turnovers aren't a problem, but that there may not be a proper explanation for why we've had so many this year. We didn't have many last year and I'd predict we will have fewer in 2020.
October 15th, 2019 at 7:57 PM ^
Why do I feel like Turner has fumbled multiple times?
October 15th, 2019 at 8:55 PM ^
Because he has. Had one against Iowa and Illinois.
October 15th, 2019 at 9:30 PM ^
He did lose the ball against Illinois but was down before he lost it. Therefore, it wasn't a fumble.
October 16th, 2019 at 8:24 AM ^
We have 17 fumbles in 6 games. I don't think too much is being made of the fact we are fumbling ~3 times a game, and have nearly lost double digit fumbles through the easiest part of our schedule. Losing any more of those could have resulted in a loss to Army or Iowa. Until we can make it through full games without turnovers it will continue to be an issue.
October 16th, 2019 at 8:42 AM ^
well, at least we're spreading the fumbles around....
smdh
October 16th, 2019 at 9:10 AM ^
#FumblesInSpace ?
October 16th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
They are getting the fumbles done early in the year. Teams usually only average a certain amount of fumbles a year, so it is smart that the Michigan team is getting them all out early.
October 16th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
I never thought about it that way......genius!
October 15th, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
"Onwenu has consistently gotten heat from the crotchety old man segment of the fanbase when his play hasn't warranted it"
Sorry Brian but that simply isnt true. At last week's COM meeting we discussed adding new things to be outraged over but we've decided to remain singularly focused on our core and abiding principles of being upset over people standing up too much in the stands and of course, the selection of piped in music written after 1968.
Onwenu is fine by us.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:44 PM ^
Is this one of those meetings that assembles at like 5:30 on a weekday morning at the local McDonalds? Coffee's free for seniors!
October 16th, 2019 at 6:45 AM ^
Don't hate...
October 15th, 2019 at 7:22 PM ^
Don, can you please confirm?
October 15th, 2019 at 8:43 PM ^
We might be able to hear you better if you weren’t shouting at that random cloud.
October 16th, 2019 at 9:08 AM ^
Don't forget about kids on the damned lawn. It's still "new business" if no one remembers it from the previous meeting!
October 16th, 2019 at 1:36 PM ^
What previous meeting?
October 15th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^
I regret to inform you that UTLIV is extremely less hardcore than you had hoped.
October 15th, 2019 at 4:58 PM ^
On the other hand, UTIs are about as hardcore as it gets (or so I've been told)
October 16th, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^
Mr. French: What are you drinking?
Billy Costigan: Cranberry juice.
Mr. French: What is it, your period? Get him a cranberry juice.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:10 PM ^
Maybe I'm becoming an old man hockey fan but I'm missing the part of that Luce hit being suspension worthy. When I played that was just a hit. The video is pretty blurry, and I could be wrong, but to me it looks shoulder to shoulder.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^
I honestly don't even see a penalty. Same as you, I'm leery about being branded the old man, but this type of hit used to be nothing more than a teaching lesson. You get back to the bench and coach says "Gotta keep your head up, son." I can't even imagine entering a zone down the boards while staring at my own feet and not expecting to get tattooed.
This was somehow called a hit from behind. I'm as confused as Mickey Redmond trying to explain an NHL hooking call.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:24 PM ^
That's exactly how I felt watching it. Looks like the Clarkson player either not paying attention to his surroundings entering the zone or just plain losing the physical confrontation he knew was coming.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:21 PM ^
same. thought it was clean. not a head shot, and not boarding.
October 15th, 2019 at 6:55 PM ^
Same. I just don't see the penalty there.
October 15th, 2019 at 7:35 PM ^
Amazing that the Big Ten awards an additional suspension for this, but gave out nothing extra to that Wisconsin DB who tried to behead McCaffrey.
October 15th, 2019 at 8:25 PM ^
/\This.
October 15th, 2019 at 8:46 PM ^
Just looks like a hit.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:15 PM ^
In the admittedly blurry thumbnail version it is not obvious. Expand it and it is clearly from behind. If he had taken a different angle and rubbed him into the boards they might have let it go. Based upon the angle (nearly perpendicular to the boards) and the level of impact it's impossible to not call that in the modern game.......at every level.
October 16th, 2019 at 7:00 AM ^
Yeah, looked like a good, clean, old fashioned slobberknocker to me... I'll bring it up at the next COM meeting about the sad state of pansies that play the games today.
BTW, this kerfuffle prompted me to go back and watch a video of Vladimir Konstantinov's hip checks. If you want to feel good about things, go watch. If you want to validate your thought that Luce's hit was fine, go watch. If you want to get all pissed off all over again at that POS coke-sniffing asseating asshole limo driver that stopped a HoF career cold and prevented a couple more Cups, go watch.
You thought the Wings were still good after 1997? Imagine those post-97 teams with Konstantinov next to Lidstrom for 20 years. Fuck you, limo driving asshole.
October 16th, 2019 at 9:10 AM ^
I lost a great deal of respect for the way the sport is played when they went no-touch icing.
The gradual removal of allowable contact from "contact sports" such as football and hockey doesn't help either.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:11 PM ^
While the list of names that left Michigan, or chose not to sign with Michigan, is disheartening, it also shows how good the staff has been at identifying talent.
And despite the numbers I think we would all still start Hill and Thomas over St. Juste and Washington suggesting their leaving town was a smart move by them (I realize St. Juste's departure was more complicated). Hopefully we have some other stud CBs in the wings waiting their turn.
October 15th, 2019 at 6:01 PM ^
I agree. I also find it hard to be mad that guys are doing well after not choosing us or choosing us and leaving. Harbaugh has not shown much of an ability to develop even the most naturally talented guys. There is no reason to suspect any of the guys Brian mentioned would have been successful here.
October 15th, 2019 at 8:20 PM ^
The Harbaugh doesn’t develop anyone thing absolutely needs an actual exploration: on what basis would that be? The record number of NFL placements? Higdon was pretty good; was he a high 4 or 5? The O line developed from an atrocity to 4 of 5 all conference. Huh. The QBs you say? OKorn? He went from benched at Houston to almost good, then merely bad. That’s development. Rudock? He’d lost starting job at Iowa. Turned out pretty damn good. Speight? He was a mid 3 star iirc; was developing into pretty darn good thank you very much before the shoulder break. Wow, a QB doesn’t come back well after a broken shoulder? What lousy coaching! Peterson? Another 3 star iirc. Not bad, not great, when he left. Shea? Started 10 games in his time at Ole Miss, developed into a QB we were really kinda liking up over last year, until we got shellacked & it’s like the preceding never happened for us (or for him unfortunately, so maybe there’s a regression. 1, in last 7 games, after a strong progression). So, actually, where is all this lack of development I keep hearing about again? Because I don’t see it, actually, now that I go thru the actual, you know, players who developed here.
October 15th, 2019 at 8:55 PM ^
Huh. Interesting. I guess all those players he has sent to the NFL must have made it on pure, raw talent. Hopefully someone at the pro level can help them develop.
/s
October 15th, 2019 at 11:40 PM ^
yes, they've made it in spite of harbaugh and staff, not because of them. so annoying.
edit to include </sarcasm> for the humor-challenged.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:17 PM ^
Now that it's official, Michigan will be featured in primetime twice in the span of 8 days. Will Michigan:
A) Lose to both PSU & Notre Dame.
B) Lose to PSU but beat Notre Dame.
C) Beat PSU but lose to Notre Dame.
D) Beat both PSU & Notre Dame.
Bonus question: What will Michigan be ranked in the AP Coaches Poll when it comes out after the weekend of October 26-27?
October 15th, 2019 at 5:32 PM ^
Probably A(BPONE)
B would be cool and C or D(Obviously) would be great.
And I am gonna say they are ranked #13 after that weekend. Decent road loss to top 10 PSU and good home win against top 10 ND moves us up a couple spots.
October 16th, 2019 at 9:05 AM ^
I think B is most likely and also a more satisfying result than C. I don't care about beating PSU, really, we are functionally identical programs so trading losses with them home/away is fine... getting the "big road game" line off of Harbaugh's back would be fine except it's already a dishonest stat since it goes solely based on post-season rankings. Beating a top 15 rival would be a bigger deal for program trajectory, we will just beat PSU next year
October 16th, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
"getting the "big road game" line off of Harbaugh's back would be fine except it's already a dishonest stat since it goes solely based on post-season rankings"
Yeah, that drives me nuts.
'He's never won a big road game!' 'What about....' 'Wait, let me deploy the wheels on my goal post and we can talk....'
October 15th, 2019 at 5:50 PM ^
D) and Michigan will be ranked #9.
Why you ask? Blind homerism, that’s why!
October 15th, 2019 at 6:45 PM ^
If Michigan beats PSU and ND, two top 10 teams, I would hope they would be ranked higher than #9
October 15th, 2019 at 7:25 PM ^
D-3 after Wisconsin pastes OSU by 22.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^
Man that vintage 2019 fumble butter sure is super duper extra strength.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:22 PM ^
As an administrative/tech issue, the Athletic link isn't working. On a positive note, the landing page for the broken link has a .gif of Dikembe Mutombo wagging his finger.
October 15th, 2019 at 5:37 PM ^
I undid my Athletic subscription after that debacle with them deleting any anti-China comments on their Chinese propaganda articles. I’m a bit surprised to see them be advertised on here with that stuff being so recent.
I know it kinda sucks because they have *everyone.*
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