game theory

11/25/2023 – Michigan 30, Ohio State 24 – 12-0, 9-0 Big Ten, Big Ten East Champs

Shrek was nude, erect, and prodigious.

This did not phase me. I am a member of the Oregon Trail generation. When the guy who posted this at me was still in the womb I was casually scrolling past goatse and lemonparty. There is only one image on the internet that has ever shook me. I will not say what it is, and I have not seen it in fifteen years. Turgid Shrek is nothing compared to it.

It goes without saying that this happened on Twitter, which was already a cesspool before Elon Musk took it over. It was already a cesspool before Ohio State's PI firm spun the Connor Stalions stuff into the Worst Scandal In College Football History™ and Tony Petitti took the bait. Combine these two events and you get the last month of the season, the most hellish one imaginable when your very excellent football team is heading for an undefeated matchup in the greatest rivalry in sports.

The context is this: some guy thinks this is a cool dunk.

The Connor Stalions effect in four pictures

Incredible, incredible stuff pic.twitter.com/vnZ7fVGKOR

— AthletesInSpace (@AthletesInSpace) November 23, 2023

That's three bone-dry news posts that might as well be from the AP followed up by a tweet of mine dunking on Gattis after he tanked the Miami offense overnight. Obviously this person is not familiar with the output of this blog, which was more or less furious about Gattis after his second game in charge of the offense and only got more frustrated from there.  I replied with evidence of such, and got Shrek.

This was the vast majority of interactions I had the last month. You say something, you cite some stuff, you appeal to common sense, and someone sends you a cartoon schwangle-dangle. Or you post literally anything and that happens. Usually metaphorically, sometimes literally.

I don't bring this up because I imagine you are hanging on what my experience is on Twitter, but because I imagine this is a reasonable facsimile of what your lives have been over the past month. Ohio State fans, mercifully quiet for the last couple years, popping up to go LOL STALIONS when you're at a baby shower or a work meeting or a briss. Michigan State fans saying Michigan had Endangered The Players just days after Spencer Brown speared Braiden McGregor in the helmet. Bert Bielema coming up to you, personally, and saying you are a disgusting human being for tolerating the filth that is Michigan football. Sort of thing. And you just have to smile tightly and try to change the subject, lest you strangle someone.

I also imagine that what you experienced at four o'clock on Saturday afternoon is what I did: silence. Blissful, wonderful silence.

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Nobody gives a shit anymore. In the aftermath even the Ohio State fans who were dead certain that Connor Stalions was all Michigan had are busy fighting other Ohio State fans who don't hate Ohio State's coach enough:

Pat Forde, who seized upon his old-school journalist instincts to hop aboard the Worst Scandal Ever train a few weeks ago, is now forced to show his belly to Dan Wetzel with some mealy-mouthed assertions that the NCAA is going to step in and do a thing. This, too, is a common theme amongst OSU cope posting: surely all of this will be vacated even after the last half-season of football amply demonstrated that Connor Stalions had about 0% to do with Michigan's success.

That was always the truth, and would always be the truth. But the truth doesn't always matter. Michigan strangling out Ohio State with a 7-minute drive and then pressuring Kyle McCord into an interception means that it does actually matter. Those were the stakes: does Michigan get to claim what they earned? Yes. Yes they do. In the aftermath Kris Jenkins screamed at Jason Avant that "there ain't no more excuses, can't nobody say otherwise, because we did that shit!"

So now we can put it behind us. There will be the deranged rivals screaming CHEATERZ until we all die; now they are an amusing sidelight and nothing else. They are welcome to die mad.

Attention can now turn to this team. This fucking team.

I could not have withstood this. I am just a guy on the internet and I have to admit that all the noise half-crippled me for three weeks. I believe that a lot of teams fronted by regular humans would have folded at the pressure put upon them. I privately feared Michigan was cracking after the Maryland game.

They were not. I am not sure we fully comprehend how lucky we were that we got this set of players at this exact moment in time. It feels like JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum and Kris Jenkins and Mike Barrett and Mike Sainristil could stare a nuclear holocaust in the face, glance at each other, and say "we got this."

This is unfair because it does not reference basically every other Michigan starter, and also the other half of the defense that plays 30 snaps a game. Trente Jones came in after the aforementioned horrific injury and immediately started hammering people. Jake Thaw got hammered by a teammate and held onto a punt. Folks make errors, sure. This is a team that faced down Marvin Harrison, lost their top-ten pick corner for the last 20 minutes, and said "bet."

Who was the weak spot to attack? Who was the indomitable hero? There wasn't one, and there wasn't one.

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The worst part about this column thus far is that it has barely referenced the actual Michigan players who fought this out. 30-24 is the third Michigan win over Ohio State in a row, something that hasn't happened since 1997. This column has necessarily concerned itself with all of the ridiculous garbage leading up to a completely normal football game won by the better team. I, personally, have spent a lot of time citing the four players I have just cited above.

But when you have a program, Quinten Johnson comes back and puts on his best Marcus Ray impression. Kalel Mullings wipes folks on out lead blocks. Trente Jones comes in when Zinter goes out. This game was not only an escape from the Narrative but a validation of Michigan's "everyone eats" approach. They put so much time into making sure everyone was ready, and then everyone was ready. I saw Mike Sainristil's dad carry a giant Mike Sainristil head onto the field for the Senior Day portion of the proceedings, and then I saw the Sainristil head at midfield after Michigan beat Ohio State. Last year Sainristil felt like a fluke, like something Michigan had lucked into. In 2023 Sainristil is the past, present, and future.

Next year it'll be Mason Graham, or Ben Hall, or Kalel Mullings. Not every year is going to be this peak roster year but Michigan has found a groove here where they can get the Michigan guys. There is a bat signal out here, and the folks Michigan needs to win will come to help them win. This all derives from this generation of players, and their attitude.

Despite the famous/infamous history of JJ McCarthy's recruitment, where he wanted to go to OSU and got screwed out of it, it is impossible to envision him playing in that fascist fucking stadium. Yes, take all the NFL guys and send them to the NFL. Instead we will have the Sainted Four, and Trevor Keegan, and Zak Zinter, and Kris Jenkins, and keep them and hold them and release them when they are ready, which is a bit later than other programs might keep them.

This is not a coaching thing, or necessarily a Michigan thing. Those things help. But fundamentally this is a decision they make because something other than maximizing revenue is what drives them. They are here—still here—for another reason. They stayed. And they are champions.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Bryan Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 JJ McCarthy. 16/20, 7.4 YPA, 1 TD, no interceptions against a pass defense that was by far the best in the country in opponent-adjusted EPA/play. Added three crucial scrambles for 17 yards. Did not put a single ball in harm's way a week after making everyone's collars tighten against Maryland. Made some of the most mind-bending throws I can remember.

#2 Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Kris Jenkins. The primary place Michigan's light box shows up is between the tackles. Michigan got to play two deep safeties against Marvin Harrison and fling every coverage known to man at him because the DTs were able to bow up enough to hold TreVeyon Henderson to 3.2 yards an attempt despite getting buckets of doubles.

#3 Blake Corum. The 22-yard touchdown was the most important play of the game, coming right after Zinter's injury. 4.0 yards per carry isn't astounding but when a chunk of those carries are pounding it in from the seven on Michigan's first touchdown and other short-yardage events, your average gets depressed.

Also #3 Colston Loveland. Five catches for 88 yards means he was the most efficient offensive player on either team. No incompletions were directed at Loveland.

Also #3 Will Johnson. Crucial interception and I'm pretty sure he's covering for a safety bust on the PI/insane Harrison catch; tackling him was a smart move. Unfortunately, Harrison caught the dang thing anyway.

Also #3 Jaylen Harrell. Forced the game-ending interception.

Honorable mention: Tommy Doman's booming punts let Michigan weather some early offensive hiccups. Donovan Edwards had a crucial halfback pass. Mike Barrett nearly had an INT and was excellent in coverage all day. Rod Moore paid off the Harrell rush. Quinten Johnson leveled Egbuka to prevent a chunk play. James Turner's field goals were the margin of victory and one was from 50.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

53: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR, HM PSU, #1 OSU)
28: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU, T2 OSU)
24: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU) 
22: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU, #1 PSU, HM MD, #3 OSU)
20: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU, #1 MD), Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV, #2 PSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR), Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR, HM MD, HM OSU)
13: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR, HM MD, #3 OSU)
11: AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PSU),
10: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR), Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR, HM PSU, #3 OSU)
9: Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR, #3 OSU)
7: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR),
6: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU)
5: Tommy Doman (HM ECU, #3 MD, HM OSU)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR), The Offensive Line (HM Minn, #3 PSU),
3: Donovan Edwards (HM ECU, HM PSU, HM OSU)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR), Rod Moore (HM PUR, HM OSU), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers, HM OSU)
1: Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn),Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rayshaun Benny (HM PSU), Cam Goode (HM MD), James Turner(HM OSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Rod Moore's diving interception seals the game.

Honorable mention: Donovan Edwards completes a halfback pass. Blake Corum scores a legacy-defining touchdown. Will Johnson intercepts McCord. JJ McCarthy throws the most ridiculous pass I've ever seen for a Roman Wilson touchdown. Tommy Doman sticks a punt at the two.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Zak Zinter's leg shatters. They did not show the aftermath on television and you are grateful for this decision. The incident was an unavoidable accident, FWIW.

Honorable mention: Ohio State runs it down Michigan's throat to tie the game at 24. Various Ohio State catches from their cyborg wide receivers. A Roman Wilson first down catch is (correctly) overturned.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

We get two commercial-kickoff-commercial sequences in the third quarter and also a timeout-commercial-timeout-play-commercial sequence at the end of the game. Also the timeouts in this game were 30 seconds longer than in any other game this year. The Big Ten, which just huffily suspended Jim Harbaugh, is siphoning millions of dollars from these two programs. That is going to stop in the next TV contract, or we're out of here.

Dishonorable mention: Pete Thamel hides in the stadium instead of facing the music.

11/11/2023 – Michigan 24, Penn State 15 – 10-0, 7-0 Big Ten

Everyone I have talked to in the last two weeks has been furious. I have also been furious, of course, but other people have been so furious that I—me, myself—have been attempting to calm people down. I have asserted that the Big Ten would not wantonly screw Michigan out of a football game with refereeing; that maybe the guy who sounds like he's running a Taliban cell should take a step back; that leaving the Big Ten is an absurd—

…actually, no wait, I was just on WTKA asserting that leaving the Big Ten was now an eventual likelihood. I, too, have been overrun with the madness everyone else has been. And I'm just a guy on the internet.

Can you imagine being actually on the team swept up in all of this? For three weeks you've had various take-merchants descend upon this like so many deeply ignorant paratroopers. A select, deficient subset of these folks have asserted that Michigan shouldn't get to play in the CoFoPoff. I know what it's like to be a fan of this team and hear these things. I want to sink my incisors into Stephen A Smith's neck and raise his decapitated head to the skies as a trophy. How does Trevor Keegan feel, and how on God's green earth does he sit down in a stance before every play and not get a penalty for death-murder?

I do not know. 

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There's a great Andy Staples article in the aftermath of the 2017 Michigan-Penn State game—a 42-17 PSU demolition at the hands of Joe Moorhead and Saquon Barkley—that goes into great detail about the opening play. That was a 69-yard Barkley touchdown where Barkley took a direct snap and used Trace McSorley as a running back. As far as gambits went it was relatively short-lived; the next year Michigan stomped all of the inverse mesh points. But it had a thunderous debut, and I remember thinking Joe Moorhead was pretty good at his job specifically because of one thing:

The only detail remaining was to leave a crease for Barkley to escape through when he pulled the ball back from McSorley’s belly. That was achieved by having left tackle Ryan Bates pass set instead of run block. That drew defensive end Rashan Gary on an upfield rush and opened a seam to the left for Barkley.

At the time I was the person charting all of Rashan Gary's snaps and frequently complaining that Gary's desire to rush the passer—to demonstrate why he was the #1 recruit in America—frequently saw him shoot 10 yards upfield to the detriment of the Michigan defense. Moorhead saw that, too, and stuck a dagger in Michigan's belly on the first play. A chagrined Gary dialed it back.

What if the opposition was completely incapable of dialing it back? Things looked bad for Michigan after two drives because whoever lined up against Karsen Barnhart was instantly past him. Sherrone Moore adjusted. He literally stopped calling dropback passes and eventually stopped calling passes, period. Faced with third and ten he ran a crack sweep with his quarterback; faced with third and eleven he shot Donovan Edwards out the backside of a play where not one but two Penn State players were recklessly headed for the quarterback.

Nothing changed for Penn State. Not one thing. Michigan finally closed the door immediately after a Penn State four-and-out turnover on downs when Robinson, who so many centuries ago was marauding through the Michigan backfield, got blown out of a gap by trying to get upfield:

That is how Michigan called game.

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You could hear the emotion pouring off Sherrone Moore in his post-game interview. Our dude was weeping, thanking God, and dropping three cuss words on national television. Next to him, a bloodied Blake Corum stood, gently leaking onto the Beaver Stadium field. Michigan has been the subject of a month-long PR campaign attempting to spin a useless scheme executed by an overzealous staffer into the Greatest Scandal In Big Ten History, and the dullard currently running the conference bought it hook, line and sinker.

By the time the league finally acted, Jim Harbaugh was literally on a plane to Happy Valley. The entire Michigan universe is furious, and we're not even on the team.I have no idea what kind of rage players on the team must have felt. Their head coach is suspended right before a top-ten road matchup. The thing they've worked their whole lives for is under threat due to actions they knew nothing about and had nothing to do with. Their play since the scandal-type substance broke is indication enough that whatever Connor Stalions was doing had approximately zero impact on how good this football team is.

It is incredible that Michigan took all of that, bottled it up, coldly evaluated the way you lose to this Penn State team—a strip-sack—and then ran a second-half gameplan far removed from what anyone would recognize as winning football in 2023. They won with it.

On top of the injury Tony Petitti delivered, there was plenty of insult to go around. Penn State defenders were taunting Michigan with cringy sign-stealing celebrations. Their defensive coordinator made a similarly cringy joke on a hype video posted a couple days before the game. Michigan ate all of that. They shoved it into a hole. They did not spear a guy in the helmet from behind, or take two personal foul penalties on one play, or lose their cool in any discernible way. They just handled their business.

In the end, it was Penn State that could not gear down. It was Penn State that kept flinging guys across the line of scrimmage long after it was clear that Michigan was anticipating that. The home team lost the plot, not Michigan. The day after, James Franklin threw yet another Spinal Tap drummer under the bus by firing Mike Yurich. After all that, they're the shook ones.

Players will tell you they shut all the noise out. They don't. They can't. It's clear that Michigan has been steeping in the same poisonous online media spaces we all have been, from the team-wide "bet" tweets in the aftermath of the suspension to what Corum did when he shut the door on Penn State for good: the same thing Manny Diaz did. Except instead of "get there early," "be loud," and "especially on third down" they meant:

Time's up.

I can't hear you.

You're next, Third Base.

[Barron]

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Blake Corum. 26 carries for 145 yards, 5.6 a pop, against what was statistically one of the best defenses in America, while Michigan was metaphorically holding up a big sign that said "RUN" on every second-half snap.

#2 Kenneth Grant. Four solo tackles as a NT; popped up early and often to clobber PSU run plays. Turned in the play of the game on defense when he ran down Kaytron Allen on PSU's only explosive play.

#3 The Offensive Line. See the Corum items above. Can't move them higher because Barnhart was the major reason Michigan held up the big RUN sign, but drop out the sack and the two kneeldowns and Michigan's output: 43 carries, 263 yards, 6.1 YPC, against a team coming off a game against Maryland where they "gave up" –49 yards.

Honorable mention: JJ McCarthy was efficient on his eight attempts and added 44 yards on 7 carries; AJ Barner was the main reason Corum's bounce went long; Donovan Edwards popped two explosives and narrowly missed a second touchdown; Rayshaun Benny had a TFL and forced a fumble; Will Johnson chased the only PSU receiver around.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

45: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR, HM PSU)
23: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU)
18: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU, #1 PSU)
15: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR)
13: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU)
11: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR), AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PSU), Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV, #2 PSU)
10: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR)
9: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR)
7: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR), Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR, HM PSU)
6: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR), The Offensive Line (HM Minn, #3 PSU)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU, HM PSU)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn),Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rod Moore (HM PUR), Rayshaun Benny (HM PSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

THE DON [Barron]

Sherrone Moore shows Manny Diaz his liver with a third-and-eleven run from just outside the redzone that Donovan Edwards cashes for a touchdown and a 14-3 lead.

Honorable mention: Corum calls game. Rayshaun Benny punches a ball out that Makari Paige falls on.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Karsen Barnhart gives up three –2 pass pro events in the first four potential pass pro events, leading me and probably many others to believe that Michigan was totally boned.

Honorable mention: Quinten Johnson INT is (correctly) overturned, which makes the Michael Barrett penalty a first down, which eventually leads to a touchdown, which prevents the score from looking like the game, which irritates me a great deal. Cam Goode's spectacular pass rush turns into a first down because he overruns the dude. Officials inexplicably overturn a running into the kicker penalty that would have given Michigan a first down. PSU scores a QB draw TD on which Mason Graham is obviously, materially held.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

I don't know, maybe the Big Ten suspending Jim Harbaugh as he was literally on a plane to Happy Valley. Maybe the fanciful notion that suspending Harbaugh is a sanction against the University because he embodies the football team. Maybe pretending like this penny-ante bullshit is Endangering The Student Athletes. Maybe everything Tony Petitti has done since becoming Big Ten commissioner. I really thought I wouldn't be handing this out on a weekly basis but we're not off to a great start.

Dishonorable mention: N/A

Masterpieces of #coronacontent. As our national sanity declines in daily increments expect more and more pieces borne out of a feverish desperation. Like this from Holly Anderson and Ryan Nanni about the 1997 Harrison Ford vehicle Air Force One, which features a Michigan-Notre Dame game as part of its background:

For you unlettered souls who have never experienced this film, it goes like this: Harrison Ford is the American president; he’s in Russia on a state visit, and on the way back his plane is taken over by a band of ultra-nationalist rebels led by Gary Oldman. President Harrison Ford’s family is on the plane, along with a good chunk of his Cabinet, and the rebels want their separatist general released from prison or they’ll shoot everybody.

What they don’t know is, everybody on the plane already wants to shoot everybody else, because Notre Dame and Michigan are playing football on television.

RYAN: This is arguably the most relatable aspect of the film. Most of us will never know the burden of managing international affairs at the highest level, and while we do worry about taking care of our families, “foil hijackers” comes in far below “manage child’s expectations about becoming a pro soccer player.” Traveling while your team is playing? That’s a thing I’ve lived, and I bet you have, too. I don’t know if it’s the change to routine, the combination of game stress and travel stress, or low air pressure, but watching a game you care about on a plane amplifies the experience. And not in a good way.

Apparently there is a point in this movie where someone yells "14-13 Michigan, all right!" This would never happen. There is no Michigan fan who would discover Michigan is leading by one point and exclaim happily.

Instead they would envision the various and terrible ways in which that slenderest of leads could be lost. A punt that corkscrews sideways, setting up a short field. Locusts eating the left guard's jersey. Someone drops a baby out of a plane that the quarterback has to catch instead of holding onto the ball. The entire team is crippled by explosive toenail growth. Etc.

[After THE JUMP: three-cone drill numbers!]