benjamin st-juste

Previously: Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver & Tight End, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

We've reached the end of this series, as I'm not going to attempt to squeeze in a special teams preview in a pandemic year. (Short version: college kickers.) Unfortunately, it looks a lot like the beginning of the series.

Tier I: The F****** Buckeyes, Again

sorry, this is the only shot we have of Shaun Wade [Eric Upchurch]

1. Ohio State. Yes, the Buckeyes lost two first-round cornerbacks—even if their fans were shocked to see Damon Arnette picked that high—and starting safety Jordan Fuller. Corner/slot Shaun Wade still ensured OSU's spot atop another position group when he opted back into the season his dad lobbied so hard to have. According to PFF's season preview magazine, Wade had more pass breakups (8) than first downs allowed (7) in 2019, a feat no other Big Ten player came close to matching.

Wade can move all around the defense. Cornerbacks Sevyn Banks and Cameron Brown are both 6'1" former four-stars; the former impressed in limited snaps last year, the latter got a lot of attention during OSU's abbreviated spring session. Safety Josh Proctor is expected to be a seamless replacement for Fuller as the single-high safety in their Cover 1/3-heavy scheme. If they utilize a second safety, it's likely to be Marcus Hooker, Malik's younger brother.

This is a defensive back factory until further notice.

Tier II: Good, Slightly Flawed

Wisconsin DBs benefited from a hellacious pass rush in 2019 [Patrick Barron]

2. Wisconsin. One of the top statistical pass defenses in the country returns almost every major contributor and even brings back former starting safety Scott Nelson, who went out for the year to injury in last season's opener. I don't see them in the same tier as OSU, however, because I'm skeptical they can replicate last year's success without last year's monster pass rush—sack leader Zack Baun leaves a big hole at outside linebacker.

When better opponents were able to hold down the pass rush, they feasted. From HTTV:

After an excellent first half of the season, the secondary struggled down the stretch in 2019. While the schedule got a lot tougher, the numbers from their mid-October upset loss at Illinois through the Big Ten title game were ugly: opponents threw for 9.2 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions.

The overall numbers are still excellent and there's experience across the board what with losing only safety Reggie Pearson from last year's secondary. There's a chance UW does their usual reload up front and makes it just as tough to poke holes in the back. They'll be well-coached under defensive coordinator and longtime NFL safety Jim Leonhard. I'm not sure there's high-level NFL talent but if these guys show up in the right place it might not matter.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the rankings.]

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Fumble numbers. We had the Mathlete run the numbers on Michigan's fumble rate and ahyup this is an absurd outlier. Here's a graph of fumbles lost on run plays during his D-1 college career (ie, Stanford and Michigan):

Over the years in his database the average teams fumble on 2.2% of plays and lose those 1.1% of the time; Harbaugh has been at 1.8% and 0.9%; this year it's 4.5% and 2.2%. So: Harbaugh teams generally fumble a little less than average and while that's probably just luck it is also luck, of the very bad and hair-pulling variety, that Michigan's losing fumbles at double the rate of an average team out of nowhere.

[After THE JUMP: Onwenu arises.]

Michigan's spring roster hit yesterday with only one surprise: redshirt sophomore cornerback Benjamin St-Juste was not on it. An insider posted to our message board, and 247’s Steve Lorenz confirmed last night that St-Juste has asked for and received a medical hardship waiver, meaning he can continue to receive financial aid but his career is done (and he no longer counts against the scholarship limit).

It’s a bummer since Michigan liked St-Juste enough his freshman year to go on a tall defensive back recruiting binge in the class after. An unknown Quebecois prospect who flew up the recruiting rankings after appearing at The Opening, St-Juste was the first of the many lengthy, bendy, hip-swingy cornerback prospects that Michigan began recruiting in earnest after the staff saw what Jeremy Clark (or Richard Sherman for the Stanford alums) could do. Michigan spotted the Canadian in the summer of 2015, but St-Juste chose to delay his matriculation to 2017 (Canadian high schools have 13 grades). The 247 and Rivals scouts used that year to catch up, skeptical Scout.com was folded into 247, and that’s how a guy from the land of Emmanuel Casseuses arrived as a 19-year-old composite four-star.

St-Juste was on track to pay that off; he got on the field in 12 games as a freshman in 2017, mostly on special teams as Lavert Hill, David Long, and Brandon Watson dominated playing time, and classmate Ambry Thomas was a more polished true freshman prospect. But St-Juste battled injuries all last season, and apparently that was going to continue.

St-Juste was the tallest and most exciting of his ilk, but thanks to the 2018 class Michigan has more St-Juste-like (Jeremy Clarketypes?) redshirt freshmen on the roster that you can fit in a midsize SUV, plus a pair of more cornerbackian true freshmen and a preferred walk-on (Hunter Reynolds) who was last year’s scout team player of the year to compete behind projected starters Lavert Hill and Ambry Thomas.