Michigan asked the portal for a kicker and lo the portal has provided, as Saline native son James Turner announced he's transferring back home after a solid career at Louisville.

Turner has been Louisville's kicker since the 2020 season, when he was named All-ACC honorable mention (13/15, long 50) for the first time. The second time was 2022 (20/22, long 48). The in-between 2021 season he was 14/22 with a long of 46 and a couple of missed extra points. But don't be scared; #CollegeKickers can happen to anybody!

Since we're already into the 2023 recruiting posts I'm going to make this a profile/hello Frankenarticle.

Louisville transfer (HS: Saline, MI) – 6'0"/205
[via Twitter]		Kornblue:	not rated
		Kohl's	nope
		Chris Sailer        5-star	5* (of 6), #20 Kicker 4*, #113 Punter
		YMRMFSPA	KC Lopata
		Other Suitors	none
Previously On MGoBlog	Never.
Notes	Sr/5th. Grad transfer. Works w Chris Nendick
Film:
Can kick in the snow. Sailer's camp. FGs from 19, 32, 37, and 47, 47, 48, 49

While doing the opponent previews last summer we started to notice everyone in the Big Ten had a competent kicker now because you can just go get one in the portal. High school (for reasons discussed below) is terrible at identifying who's good or not, and colleges heretofore have resorted to taking a leg off the list of the few who went to camps, filling in behind them with walk-ons, and hoping one of them hits. The portal allows bigger schools to skip that step, letting the 100 smaller programs sift out the competent guys for them.

Michigan realized after spring ball that they needed better than asking their punter to do double-duty or hoping the freshman from Huron is a natural. Fortunately for them, Louisville's coach moved up to Cincinnati in the offseason before playing his new team in a bowl game, and wouldn't you know it, their very competent kicker from Saline was about to complete his degree. Nab!

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CAREER THUS FAR

Turner finished his Saline career with a 12/12 senior season, going 45/46 on PATs, and being named 1st team All-State by the Detroit News for Division 1-2 (sophomore Tommy Doman was 2nd team for Division 3-4). Chris Sailer's was the only kicking site to come up with a grade, but made Turner his #20 kicker and #113 punter of the year

James is an excellent kicking and punting prospect. A great athlete with one of the stronger legs in his class. He does an outstanding job on field goal. He hits a pure ball off the ground and has 55+ yard range. Kickoffs are strong, college ready. He drives the ball deep with 4.0+ hang time. Also a very capable punter. He shows that he can hit a big punt and his consistency is improving. A competitor that does very well under pressure. He has all the tools to dominate the college level. I really like his upside. A fine young man that is always a pleasure to work with. One of the hardest workers out there. Outstanding all around prospect. OFFER NOW!!! Excellent addition for Louisville.

Accolades included being named the field goal, kickoff, and overall champion of Sailer's 2018 Illinois camp, a 2017 underclassman invitational punt finalist, and a Top 12 camp invitee.

With no recruiting profile, Turner walked on the Louisville team in 2019, where his kicking coach, former NIU PK Chris Nendick, who's based out of Chicago, also sent the Cardinals' incumbent starter, Blanton Creque. Nendick got to talk about the kid's development in the local paper:

"He has a switch he can turn on and every time coach Satterfield puts him on the field, he thinks he can make the kick,” Nendick said.

… Creque said that he’d see Turner kick the ball from 65 yards out at times. "But I was like, 'You gotta rein it in.' He knew that, I wasn’t telling him anything he didn’t know," Creque said.

Creque was injured during the 2019 season, and Turner had to play in just enough games to burn his redshirt (grrr), handling kickoffs in five games, with four touchbacks in 29 attempts, and another four out of bounds.

In 2020 he won the open kicking job over junior Ryan Chalifoux, who made one of three attempts in place of the now-graduated Creque. Turner converted 13/15, making 6/8 beyond 40 and both of those misses were tries from 50+. Turner also nailed all 40 of his point after attempts. He ended the season on an 8/8 run, including a 48-yarder at Virginia, and a 50-yarder against Syracuse, part of a 3/3 day. Afterwards he was named all-ACC honorable mention and a Groza semifinalist.

He was put on scholarship in January.

You'd expect such a promising breakout campaign to translate to the next year, but #CollegeKickers. His Louisville bio skips over 2021, but the Cardinals' SBNation site can give you the gist.

He started 2021 on a good note, making his first four kicks but things went downhill from there. He missed at least one kick in 7 of the next 8 games in which he attempted one including missing the game-winner against Virginia.

The staff finally made a change in the bowl game and Brock Travelstead made all four extra points after Turner missed a field goal.

That attempt was a 49-yarder from the right hash that he pushed WAY left. He also missed a couple of extra points. Said Satterfield, Turner "needs to forget about last season."

Because #CollegeKickers, he did. Turner didn't get a chance in the opener and missed a 41-yarder in the 1st quarter against UCF, but then started to find his form, making a pair of 35-yarders to end that game, and another to go ahead in the 4th quarter against FSU. A walkover of USF was mostly an opportunity to practice extra points but he hit another short pair, 29 and 25 yards for the backups. He went 2/2 again against Boston College, including a 48-yarder from the left hash in the 3rd quarter, but had an extra point blocked (not his fault!) for what turned out to be BC's winning margin. Both of his FGs vs Virginia were chip shots—the one to take the lead at the half was a bit of a tough angle. It was deep in the 4th quarter of a tight game versus Pitt that Turner would get another chance from the same spot as the one that haunted him from 2021.

The first two drives against Wake Forest ended in 29- and 39-yarders from Turner, but he missed a 47-yarder right before halftime to end his streak at 10 in a row, though Turner has an argument it was actually 12 in a row after Wake picked up a false start right before a 32-yarder and a hold on the 37-yarder he also stuck through the middle before the long one (right hash) drifted just right.

A new 10-kick streak began with a 28-yarder to tie James Madison at the half then pull ahead from 35, then a 22-yarder versus Clemson, then a 4/4 afternoon (26, 22, 30, and 28) to best NC State, earning him ACC Specialist of the Week. He didn't get an opportunity in a turnover-riddled game versus Kentucky, but capped his season with a 48-yarder in a weird, chilly Fenway Park to put the victory over Cincinnati into garbage time.

The final numbers, 20/22 on field goals, and 38/39 (the blocked one) mark on extra points. Once again Turner earned ACC honorable mention, though no there was no Groza discussion this time. Said Satterfield, "We really have a lot of confidence in him and what he is doing."

Unfortunately Satterfield also said that from the broadcast booth of Louisville's bowl game versus Cincinnati after saying "Yes" to coaching Cincinnati—I told you the Fenway game was weird. Through the transition a number of Louisville players have entered the portal. Their punter left for Colorado last December. After sticking around, and sticking field goals of 24, 45, and 23 yards in Louisville's spring game last week, Turner put truth to rumors he was out the door as well last Tuesday. Said the SBNation site,

This is no small loss for a Cardinal team that has played a ton of close games in recent years. If Turner hadn’t been historically accurate last season, Scott Satterfield may have ended up being fired instead of having the luxury to bolt for Cincinnati.

Michigan was the expected destination as soon as Turner made his announcement, given his Saline roots and reports that the Wolverines were active in the portal for a kicking plan other than letting Doman handle both duties or relying on incoming freshman Adam Samaha, from Ann Arbor Huron. Speculation that he already had a destination in mind was largely confirmed when Turner added he didn't want schools contacting him. Via Chris Balas($) Turner has finish a few credits to graduate Louisville before he can enroll at Michigan this fall, hence the delay between the portal announcement and his commitment.

STATS

Alright. Louisville's field goal efficiency to Football Outsiders the last three years was 35th (0.41 pts/game better than average), 97th (-0.09), and 16th (+0.64). The breakdown via ESPN:

Year	Long	29-	30-39	40-49	50+	Tot	XP
2020	50	3/3	4/4	5/5	1/3	13/15	40/40
2021	46	4/5	4/4	6/10	0/3	14/22	46/48
2022	48	11/11	6/6	3/5	0/0	20/22	38/39
TOTAL	144	18/19	14/14	14/20	1/6	47/59	124/127

Yeah, he's missed three extra points and his range extends to about 48 yards. That's still pretty good.

I've been playing around with a kicking formula based on average FG% since 2012 (again, off ESPN) from various distance boxes, with a small distance bonus for kicks beyond 50 yards (because expected points is less than zero, IE your team at that down/distance is more likely to punt it near the 20—or worse, miss the field goal and turn it over near midfield—than score a point). Here's Turner's career thus far against all of the kickers of the MGoBlog era in points above average.

*Moody is over 3 points/make from 50+ because of the distance factor

This passes the three sniff tests I was expecting it to:

1. Moody was money.
2. Rivas's short range inaccuracy really was a thing.
3. Most Quinn Nordin's value was his big leg.

It also tells you that Turner is liable to be as automatic as Moody from inside 50, but without the range. If we believe my Points Above Average metric, Turner's two good seasons rank among the best at Michigan since 2006.

No, he's not upperclassman Jake Moody, but last season he was more or less 2018 Jake Moody.

WHY DIDN'T MICHIGAN KNOW ABOUT THIS GUY IN HIGH SCHOOL?

I'm sure they knew about him—plenty of coaches and support staff send their kids to Saline—but in the fall of 2018 they had RS sophomore Quinn Nordin and true freshman Jake Moody on scholarship, and walking on at Louisville was a better bet to get on the field than walking on at Michigan.

But I do expect the portal to be a much bigger part of kicker recruiting in the future, because nobody knows who's a good kicker out of high school. Sometimes you do get a kid who's fully committed to the bit and whose parents can dump time and tens of thousands of dollars on trainers and trips to camps.

High school games are played under bad lights at night with kids who can rarely snap or hold, with short seasons and coaches loathe to try field goals unless forced. Often the best sign of a good kicker is simply that his coach is willing to have him try from beyond 40 yards—most coaches I know would be happy to get a punter who can kick it that far. Usually you get something more like Turner, which looks like good senior numbers kicking off a tee, and one site (Sailer's in this case) that he traveled to Chicago to perform at.

ARE WE CONCERNED AT ALL THAT HIS MUSTACHE ISN'T AS AWESOME AS MOODY'S?

Here's the thing, you're looking at a Junior photo that they just re-cropped for this year's.

That photo's probably from March 2022. Kickoff against ECU isn't until September 2023. Take it from someone who couldn't wait to hide a second chin: when it comes to facial hair at that age, 18 months is an eternity.

OFFERS

He asked them not to.

HIGH SCHOOL

Saline is a suburb of Ann Arbor, a bucolic college town often rated one of the best places to live in America, though the proprietor has strong opinions about some of the locals' resistance to multi-unit zoning. It is most famously the home of the University of Michigan, the two-time current reigning champions of the Big Ten, who are also on a two-game blowout streak over their rival Ohio State. From 1998-2003 it was the collegiate residence of Seth Fisher, who is the two-time current reigning champion of the International Agribusiness Group March Madness Pool, where he's been besting Ben Fisher by scores even uglier than 42-27 and 45-23.

We should take this opportunity to shout out Saline's Joe Palka at least, since we sent people down to Whitmer to cover Kevin Koger and Chris Wormley back in the day. Palka followed Wormley to up US-23 in 2011, and since then has been running the strongest program in town, save (arguably) the one with the 113,001-seat stadium.

Last year the Hornets went 8-3, going out in a 62-44 score-fest versus Belleville. Sure James Turner was long gone by then. He was gone when they went 9-1 (7-0 in the SE Red) in 2021, and 8-2 (5-0) in the weird COVID season, and 8-2 (5-0) in 2019. Their last year with Turner, they went 10-2 (4-0). I'm sure if you scroll down in the comments there will more about Saline soon.

FAKE 40 TIME

45-23.

Why KC Lopata? Because one year of Kicking Competency is what you're gonna get, IE a guy who's generally going to make them up to 45 yards, then drops off as he starts having to push.

Variance: Low-ish. A 5th year senior who's been doing it for years, and that 2021 blip wasn't really that bad. On the other hand: #CollegeKickers.

Ceiling: Plus. His 2020 season would have been better than any but Moody's double-Groza's in the pantheon of recent Michigan kickers. Can a 5th year kicker at Michigan do better than the same guy as a junior at Louisville? I mean, he can.

General Excitement Level: Better than Is Kicker. Calming. I feel calm.

Projection: You can note that a lot of the kicks propping up Turner's impressive FG% at Louisville were from the 29 and under range, where an average NCAA kicker should still be hitting 90%. Strip those out however and you have a guy who's been perfect from 30-39, and is still well above average out to the mid-40s. A couple of wobbles late in 2021 seem overblown—he could have been injured, or had a minor technical issue to correct. #CollegeKickers is a constant threat to everyone everywhere. Jake Moody's 2019 had two misses from inside 39 yards and came in a point below NCAA average; QED.

Of course in a few courses James Turner is going to graduated from college. He'll be in super-college. Upper college. Graduate school, not college. And while blips happen, they usually happen like they did to Turner—a few loud mistakes the year after his breakout—whereas the older guys tend to flatten out and inch towards better. Leaving out Matt Wile's small sample size 2012, every guy on my list's best season was his last.

I'm not expecting Jake Moody. You don't graduate the leading scorer in program history and not lose something. But Turner is about the best case scenario for 2023, and is probably going to keep us well in the Spoiled Zone for a little longer. I'm also going to project that sometime in the next nine months we're going to be taking a really close look at those "five" games he played in 2019 to make sure they weren't a redshirt-allowing four. When we lose that appeal, and Samaha or Doman or another transfer takes over, just remember it's not supposed to be this good.