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Pretty much exactly how I…

Pretty much exactly how I feel. I've been there twice (once as a band member once as a spectator).  The first time I didn't really experience any of the problems with the stadium because everything was taken care of.  But as a spectator, it's horrible getting to your seat, the bathroom lines are crazy, the concessions lines are crazy, there are very few TVs/speakers to stay up on the game while dealing with those issues, and getting out after was possibly the most frustrating stadium experience I've ever had.

That being said, everything to do with the actual game itself was great. Really enjoyed our seats and the presentation. Despite being a bowl, I feel like it retains noise better than Michigan stadium (or possibly the crowd was just that much more amped because of the stakes).  That was the loudest crowd noise I've experienced outside of a Seattle Seahawks game.

If the NCAA tries to impose…

If the NCAA tries to impose anything other than 1 L3 per game/incident and then a few L2s as an escalation of that due to the volume, UM should sue the **** out of them.

Anything higher is completely counter to the context of the rule as it was developed and their own COI's assertion of how serious of a violation/problem it is.

Decent performance given the…

Decent performance given the starters being pulled at the end of the 3rd. We'll see how we do with our OC calling the plays next week.

It's pretty simple and been…

It's pretty simple and been covered a lot.  UM will not even indirectly pay you to come here.  They will talk to you about NIL opportunities, they will share some information about how much NIL $ broadly current players or position groups are earning.  They will not say "If you enroll you will get $400k guaranteed as soon as you step foot on campus".

It is what it is, but I think the lack of guaranteed money is what is killing them.  A lot of these players want to go to the league, but they also accept the reality that not everyone makes it there, and money earned in college is important.

I understand the culture they are trying to build, but the one thing I absolutely don't understand is why they have not put together a collective of large donors to provide a guaranteed salary to the players.  For instance, if you play enough in a season to forfeit eligibility that year (IE 4 games or more) then you will get $100-125k/year guaranteed.  That may not be a ton compared to some of the signing deals being offered, but I think it would be enough to get recruits on board.

After graduating from UofM I…

After graduating from UofM I moved to the PNW to work for a large tech company.  After living here for about 1.5 years we met on eHarmony and have been together ever since.  We were both eachother's first online dates, but I like to hassle her because she had a date with another option the same day a few hours later.  Very business like lol.

It does sound like Tinder is way more upsetting than the online dating landscape was 10+ years ago, definitely glad to be out of that game.

Preparation piece aside,…

Preparation piece aside, which I feel very good about our coaches ability to gameplan and prep, Georgia has played two top-25 offenses all year (per FPI).  #3 Bama and #18 Tennessee.  They gave up 42 and 17 in those games.  Michigan is #5 in offense.  We will be the best offense they've seen outside of Bama, and I believe we can reasonably score 24-30 points, especially if we nail a few trick plays.

The most interesting…

The most interesting scenario for me would be if somehow we do end up in the 3-way tie situation and OSU wins the tie-breaker, then goes to the Big CG and wins.  They end 11-2.  UM ends 11-1.  The CFP committee is not obligated to take the conference champion. Do they take an OSU team with a head to head loss against UM because they are conference champs?  Kind of an interesting scenario.

I'm honestly not sure what…

I'm honestly not sure what the answer is.  IMO the problems caused by the current system are:

  1. Increased recruiting inequity due to the same few teams making it every year (and players wanting to play for those teams)
     
  2. Made non-playoff bowls (even New Years bowls) pretty meaningless, and increased elite players for non-playoff teams shutting things down for the season
     
  3. Didn't really solve the last team in debate, because the difference between #4/5 is usually not very big and also still results in the G5 feeling like they got shafted


I think #1/#3 can be mostly solved by an 8 team playoff, because it will increase access to the playoff and the field is large enough that if a team doesn't make it they really have no-one to blame but themselves.  Also it can solve the G5 problem with an auto-bid, without taking away opportunity for 1 loss P5 teams.

I think #2 really needs to be solved by fair and standardized NIL + compensation for athletes.  Basically make sure players (especially elite ones) get enough $ to make the entire season worthwhile, and also you could stipulate that some significant portion of money is automatically forfeit if a player chooses to shut things down for the season early, including the bowl game (barring legitimate medical concerns).

Not personally convinced a 12-team playoff has benefits over an 8 team playoff, but there could be good reasons.

Agua Verde is a solid choice…

Agua Verde is a solid choice for Seattle, probably not my favorite in the area, but I assume they limited the list to Seattle proper.

I use a pair of Adidas…

I use a pair of Adidas Powerband Boa spikes.  Not that opinionated on spike vs spikeless, but would definitely recommend a brand with the Boa laces/closure (Footjoy has them also, not sure what others do).

Give into the dark side and…

Give in to the dark side and use Edge, it's chromium based now so it should be comparable to Chrome speed wise.

I don't have a lot of faith…

I don't have a lot of faith in MSU outside of Breslin.  Seems like getting a friendly whistle and being comfortable with the court is a huge component of their recent success.  I guess we'll see though.

I liked Harbaugh and wanted…

I liked Harbaugh and wanted him to succeed. I thought he did a hell of a job in 2015/2016 and had some shitty luck.

But the last 4 seasons are not up to what is expected at UM. There are obvious problems with recruiting and talent evaluation, and we have been unable to produce at the QB position. The players are not being put in a position to succeed, which is a disservice to them and their future prospects. Anyone who wants Harbaugh to stay at this point is deluding themselves.

If there are influential people still onboard the Harbaugh train, their influence needs to be curtailed as much as possible.

I've always been a Harbaugh…

I've always been a Harbaugh apologist I guess, because I felt like we fielded competitive teams and statistically were very good.  We had some bad luck costing us an MSU and OSU win, which would make the rivalry stats people throw around pretty balanced.  That being said the product on the field this year is unacceptable.  I turned the game off 5 minutes in to the 2nd quarter, because it is obvious that our offense is completely incapable of doing anything.

Say what you will about Don Brown not showing up in big games, but at least we fielded top defenses year after year before our CB/DT recruiting failings finally came home to roost.

The only time the offense has been objectively good under Harbaugh was maybe at the end of Rudock's season.  College football is an offensive game, and UM has largely been incapable of winning a game on offense under this regime.  UM should always have a top 2-3 QB in the B1G at a minimum, and Harbaugh is a supposed QB whisperer.  His inability to produce a true game changer at the most important position in 5 years unfortunately means I think he should be out the door.

That Mason split zone block…

That Mason split zone block against Alabama was the most football thing I've seen all year.

Yes because removing all…

Yes because removing all context from records is a great basis for comparison:

2017 Iowa 8-5, SP+ #35, SOS #10
2017 UM 8-5, SP+ #13, SOS #14

2018 Iowa 9-4, SP+ #23, SOS #62
2018 UM 10-3, SP+ #10, SOS #26

2019 Iowa 10-3, SP+ #20, SOS #31
2019 UM 9-4, SP+ #10, SOS #6

(Used FPI for 2019 SoS, couldn't find SP+ numbers for that)

UM faced a significantly harder schedule in 2/3 of those years, and is statistically a much better team. Perhaps if we moved to the Big Ten west you'd feel better?

I know people weren't as…

I know people weren't as high on our 2021 recruiting, but if we snag Jennings and hang on to everybody else that will bring us up to #7 for the class. Still need another CB as others have mentioned though.

I predict that Milton will…

I predict that Milton will perform a lot better as QB in a vertical position, so this pleases me.

I guess I'm not sure what…

I guess I'm not sure what you're advocating? Doing nothing?  For herd immunity to apply you need between 60-80% infected.  Even if you assume the actual number of infected people is 5-10x what has been reported (which is optimistic, but within the realm of possibility given by the % positive rates of recent random testing), that still means a shit ton more people need to get infected to achieve herd immunity.

The US population is estimated at a little over 330 million.  That means you need 198-264 million infected for herd immunity (if you magically assume everyone who gets infected will maintain persistent immunity for several years).  With our 5-10x estimate for actual number of people infected that puts us between 27.4-54.9 million infected so far.  So even in the most optimistic case we are only 28% or so to achieving herd immunity, but could be as little as 10% of the way there!

The number of deaths due to COVID is already unconscionable.  Opening things back up the way many are advocating will almost guarantee another 500,000+ deaths at a minimum in the US before this is over.  All because people want things to magically get back to normal.

The updated Kenpom line is…

The updated Kenpom line is UNC by 2.  Ace you've damned us all.

My S&P+ projections…

My S&P+ projections incorporate recent performance, recent recruiting, and returning production; early in the season, they carry significant weight, and they are phased out with increasing speed. After a team has played seven games, its preseason projections are completely phased out of the S&P+ equation.

There is a decent case for keeping the preseason numbers involved for much longer than that, but maintaining anything beyond seven weeks has not, in my experience, changed predictive accuracy to any major degree.

According to Connelly preseason ratings are mostly phased out by week 7, but entirely by week 8.

PSU has played 3 teams that…

PSU has played 3 teams that are offensively worse than Rutgers this year (per SP+). They also played the injury ridden shell of Purdue.  I'm not guaranteeing we'll do well, given our own offensive struggles, but their stats are extremely misleading.

Their defense is very good,…

Their defense is very good, but honestly hasn't been tested much.  They did shut down Purdue (SP+ #15 Offense), but Purdue I feel like particularly is vulnerable to stalling against a good defense (except OSU for some reason).  They've also played 3 teams who are offensively worse than Rutgers.

They will be the 3rd best defense we've seen statistically (Iowa/Wisconsin are both higher), but things didn't go exactly well against those two, so who knows.

That is modern college…

That is modern college football. You cannot expect to hold every opponent. Even when you're as consistently good as Bama. The last five years the most points they gave up were 44, 26, 43, 43, 44.

Obviously you can't excuse last year's OSU game, but you need your offense to win a game every once in a while.

https://971theticket.radio…

https://971theticket.radio.com/media/audio-channel/doug-karsch-and-jon-jansen-talk-some-michigan-football

I mean this is what a I mean this is what a mediocre defensive team looks like when the #1 offense is hot. Kansas is #40 in defense on Kenpom and #49 over the last 2 months on Torvik. They aren't good defensively (UM is #3 & #1 respectively in those metrics). If we allow as many 3 pt attempts as they've allowed made 3's this game I'd be very surprised.
Stauskas

I feel good about our chances vs A&M this weekend, but man oh man do I wish we had a pull up shooter like Stauskas this year.  Went down the rabbit hole of his highlights and he just made shots.

I think the draw is ok, Double post.
I think the draw is ok, I think the draw is ok, however, kinda pissed about getting Houston as a #6. According to Torvik we are playing like the 2nd best in the country since Feb 1st. They are playing 7th best since then. That's why I wish the committee took recent performance into account as well, not just overall resume. We basically have a sweet 16 or Elite 8 matchup in the round of 32. I'd gladly trade with 4 seed Gonzaga in our bracket.
That's what I was thinking,

That's what I was thinking, either Drevno is getting canned or he is no longer working with the OL as a position coach.  Probably Warinner will be on-boarded as OL coach in the near future.

Yep, it would put our 2016

Yep, it would put our 2016 composite at 296.62 which would be #2.  Also adding Van Jefferson to 2015 would move us from #37 -> #31 for that year.

That may be my favorite of

That may be my favorite of the bunch, it's just such a beautiful play on both sides.

I'm hoping that with the

I'm hoping that with the offseason worth of progress and increased coaching focus (because of line responsibility now being split) that he will be at least serviceable.  Guess we'll find out pretty quick on Sat, because I'd say the best player on Florida's D-Line (Jefferson) is at DE.

I haven't yet, but would love

I haven't yet, but would love to try it.  Feel silly that I haven't yet, actually, I live in Snoqualmie so it's super convenient.

As far as areas to live,
As far as areas to live, depends how annoying you want your commute to be and what you want experience wise.
 
Bellevue - Most convenient obviously, but very expensive, especially in downtown proper.  I work there and love it, but live further east.
 
Seattle - If you want the downtown experience I'd suggest Cap Hill (though very loud/party heavy), South Lake Union (near Amazon headquarters), or Queen Anne.  Belletown is a decent option as well.  If you want more suburb type living I love the Montlake/U-District area.  You'll have to cross the bridges to get to work, which adds quite a bit of time during rush hour, however, there will be a light rail across I-90 in a few years, so that's nice.
 
Redmond - Wonderful place to live, especially downtown.  Pretty suburban in places, but enough going on that you won't get bored.  Probably the easiest commute to Bellevue.
 
Renton - Up and coming, undergoing a lot of gentrification.  However, I-405 commute during rush hours is death.  Is about 10 minutes from Bellevue but your commute could be 40+ mins.
 
Kirkland - Great downtown area near the water, lots of young professionals.  Commute can again be a bit annoying because of 405 and side streets get flooded as a result.
 
For things to do:
 
Hiking
Tons of awesome hiking in the area.  I would recommend (in no particular order): Mt Si, Granite Mt, Rattlesnake Ridge/Lake, West Tiger Mtn, Mt Rainier, Mt. St Helen (specifically the Ape Caves)
 
Sports
Obviously you've got the Seahawks, Mariners, and Sounders for major teams.  Sounders are probably my favorite out of those to go to, because Seahawks games are just insanely expensive.  The Everett Silvertips can be fun if you're a hockey fan.
 
Activities
Lots of good IM sports in the area if you're into that.  Underdog and Arena sports are the two main players.  There are also a plethora of Rock Climbing gyms, and some really good indoor go karting that I like a lot.  WhirlyBall is also a blast and there are some good leagues in Seattle.
 
There are tons of culture type things to do as well, there is an under 35 membership at the 5th Ave theater that gets you cheap tix, as well as Paramount (more expensive, but better show catalog typically).  I had a Seattle Pops membership for a while and loved that, and the symphony is great if you're into more classic stuff.
 
For food some of my favorites are Jak's Grill, Din Tai Fung, Agua Verde, and the Salish Lodge restaurant.
How is presenting facts to

How is presenting facts to you using maize colored glasses? We were the #4 class in the country last year and #8 the year before.  By star average we were #8 and #11 respectively.  Top 10 by pretty much any measure.  There are certainly things to be upset or complain about (finishing close games last year in particular) but recruiting is not one of those things.

You're either really

You're either really uninformed or trolling.  Over the last 2 years UM has recruited 35 4 or 5 star players, which is tied with Georgia for 3rd best in the country.  Alabama had 41 and OSU had 37.

You're also missing an important point, which is that it is much harder to recruit a full class of top end guys.  For instance, the top 21 guys (same size as OSUs class) for UM last year had a star average of 93.52.  Having a large class helps your overall score, sure, but will also lower your star average significantly.

Am I crazy to think we could

Am I crazy to think we could get all the way up to a 5 if we win the tourney?  Depending on who we face in final (Maryland is best option rankings wise it seems?) we could be #20 or higher on Kenpom with a #25-30ish RPI.

In addition to rankings we'd be BTT champs, have lost only 2 in the last 14 games both away and both by small margins, and have a perfect 6-0 record at neutral sites, with 4/6 of those against RPI top 50 and the lowest rated opponent having an RPI of #62ish (Illinois)  That's a great resume.

A Visual

Realistically our class compares favorably to pretty much everyone except Bama/OSU.  I have some charts comparing us to each of the first 3 categories (Damn Son, Spectacular, and Still Awesome).  My embedding skills are subpar apparently though, so I'll just post the link.

http://imgur.com/a/WyaYu

You're correct that OSU and

You're correct that OSU and Bama are a step above the rest.  However, it is easier to have a higher avg rating with a lower # of recruits.  For instance the average of our current top 20 (size of OSU's class) is 92.77.  Should we get Solomon and Collins as expected that jumps to 93.50.  Obviously it is ideal to have both quantity and quality, but bringing in additional players doesn't diminish the talent of the top 20 either.

From that Najee interview it

From that Najee interview it sounds like the condition of the weight room and the whole "guys look out of shape" negative recruiting spiel that was floating around really hit home.  Hopefully the WR renovations Manuel discussed last year will be completed in the next year or two to keep that from happening in the future.

Surprise surprise.  Now maybe

Surprise surprise.  Now maybe we can get back to the important stuff.  I have more periscope videos to watch.

Very insightful post.  I'm a

Very insightful post.  I'm a big fan of how we've put shield punt teams on the defensive again with a few small tweaks.  Regarding you pointing out the hold...I can't believe you've done this.  I was just getting to the point where I wasn't upset about that game any more and now you've dragged me back with another missed call.

I think you're looking at it

I think you're looking at it with "we just lost" colored glasses.  6th is literally the floor for where they can put us.  Current #7 has 2 losses and one of those losses is to us...

  • We have 3 wins over what will be top 10 teams in the upcoming rankings and a bad road loss by 1 point
  • UW has no top ten wins and a home loss to a surging maybe top 15ish USC
  • Clemson has 3 wins over top 15ish teams (with a great win vs Louisville), but a home loss to a top 25ish Pitt and a bunch of close calls against middling teams

Honestly the real challenge for the committee will be where to put Louisville.  Do they drop Clemson below a team they beat when both have 1 loss?  Can they drop us below Louisville when we have 3 top 10 wins and they have 1 top 15ish win?

If they are going by body of work it should probably be Alabama, OSU, Clemson/Us, Lousiville, UW.

I see someone went to the

I see someone went to the Hanz Zimmer / Christopher Nolan school for hype making.  Solid video overall though.

I mean our rushing attack was

I mean our rushing attack was pretty average, I don't necessarily feel like that's a huge issue.  With sacks removed we rushed 35 times at 5.2 ypc.  Deveon Smith had 11 carries at 7.9 ypc.  It seems people are upset that we haven't imposed our will or something like that, but the play calling is very much take what the defense will give, and the point totals in the first 3 games show that.

If you're around average

If you're around average height I'd just get a used set or buy a set online.  I picked up some cheap Taylormades off Amazon about 3-4 years ago for around $200 (Driver, 3W, 4/5 H, 6-PW) and used those.  Once you get more comfortable and are consistent I'd invest in some decent wedges to expand your options (I found a 3 set of AW, SW, LW for like $50).

Then just work on your game until you become about a bogey golfer.  After that point it might be worth investing in some nicer clubs to give you an edge.

I left after the whole Peters

I left after the whole Peters "homesick" fiasco.  Figured I'd never given Scout or 247 a chance and it was time for a switch.

Disrespekt? Just got

Disrespekt? Just got rekt.

Obviously it is because they had those weird nets the whole game.

I'll take the under.  Joe

I'll take the under.  Joe Bolden is just too hot right now for people to notice this.

On a serious note, bummer about Swenson, and I'm hoping he was given this information sooner than we think.