Penn St Defense Film Break Down. A Very Good Defense.
Penn St is doing well with defense this year. They are ranked high in:
Scoring defense, #2:
3rd down defense, #11:
Tackles for loss, #3.
Michigan's O Line and RBs will have to be at their best. If playing at Penn St, in the White Out Game, on a Saturday Night, in a Nationally televised game, in what will very likely get the highest tv ratings of all college football games this weekend, doesn't bring out the best in the team, what will? It's the biggest a stage can get in the regular season. They need to play like it.
And Total defense, #4. It's impressive that the BIG10 has 8 teams in the Top 25. (And Northwestern is at #26.):
One area Penn St not doing well in is Red Zone defense. They aren't even in the Top 50:
This game will again be a tough test on how good "Speed In Space", (or should it just be called Michigan's offense?) does against a worthy defense. Because of Michigan's defense I'm expecting it to be a closer game than most are thinking it will be. But then I'm a Michigan fan, for a long time. It might be hard for me to be unbiased. I'm hoping, at the worst, it's not a blow out. But who knows, maybe Michigan will pull off the upset. Hope springs eternal.
I really hope to see DPJ and Nico Collins be a big part of the offense. The way the big name WRs have been used this year it makes me apprehensive that big name WRs (like AJ Henning) will want to come to Michigan in the future.
Now, here's a video break down.
First, there'll be a little analysis on player health, and how to watch over it. Then, it turns to how Penn St's defense is coached. Interesting, as always, by these two:
October 14th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
Man that guy looks like Jerry Sandusky
October 14th, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
I got MAX BPONE, but I'll try not to infect anyone else.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
I see your MAX BPONE and raise you (HA!) one RAGING BPONER!
October 14th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
I am infected with BPONE too. And I definitely try not to infect anyone else.
But you inadvertently gave me the perfect analogy for BPONE. I have this disease bad. But I never talk about it. (just like most people don't like to hear that you're sick.) Publicly, I'm either positive about Michigan, or non-committal about our chances. So this weekend, my take would be, "well, Michigan has a chance to win. I don't know . . . PSU is very good, and this will be a tough game. But if Harbaugh is right about the team, and the guys are beginning to hit their stride offensively, they could finally put it all together and win."
My issue with BPONE is other people who are also infected, but complain about it incessantly (just like some people who are sick.) They want their BPONE gone, and so they blame the doctors, the staff, the whole system, and want them fired, because they're incompetent. I roll my eyes at hypochondriacs. I do the same with Michigan fans who whine incessantly about how bad things are, and how the team is terrible, and is never going to be good, and how Harbaugh is an overrated coach.
I think we're finally on the road to recovery after being sick for a long time, but the cure doesn't happen overnight.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
Michigan's grade of the BPONE virus takes DECADES to recover from
October 14th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
Maybe we need to call a BPONE Anonymous session.
Hi, my name is Fred, this is my first time here, I graduated 20 years ago, I live in the suburbs, I like cats, and I have BPONE.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
gruden/fred, the 'cats' thing might be your bigger problem....
(j/k)
October 14th, 2019 at 4:11 PM ^
recovery? let's worry about that once it's under control. right now the BPONE is intensifying in both quantity and quality at an alarming rate.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
We all know exactly how its going to go. If Michigan wins this game its going to be because of defense and one or two big pass plays if we actually take the shots. We aren't scoring more than 24 points and even that is being hopeful and including some short fields thanks to the defense.
Maybe we win this game 20-17 or something but we aren't winning 45-40.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
I just hope this game is not a disaster, where the offense does next to nothing.
October 15th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
I see almost no reason to believe the offense will do anything. They've looked disjointed and confused and Shea is just not a good QB and this has been against easier teams at home and Illinois on the road. The offense could be a disaster on the road, at night, against a very good defense. I don't know why anyone expects anything else honestly
October 14th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
Lol, at this stage I'd be happy winning 3-0, or even 2-0. I ain't gonna look a gifted horse in the mouth, a win would be a huge win.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
We can not fall behind 14-0 in a blink of an eye. That's what I'm afraid of. Like many times, the first qtr will tell you what you need to know.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
Maybe falling behind early, not that I want this, will force M to open up the offense. Possibly good? Shit I don't know.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^
Maybe we win this game 20-17 or something but we aren't winning 45-40.
I'd be fine with either. Thrilled even. I close win based on defense to me is as good as a shootout win based on offense.
This offense has issues. Gotta be happy with what we get as far as good news.
Realistically; given the location and PSU's D I think our offense gets shut down and maybe turns over the ball a crap ton of times setting up PSU scores. I think overall our D can hang with their O; but they can't get screwed by the Offense.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
This is good content OP but you might want to ask the Mods to move it to the diary section. It's long (which for whatever reason seems to bother people on the board) and it'll get moved off the front page fairly quickly.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
It's not that long, really. The imbedded pictures make it look long, but there's not a lot of words, so it'll be fine. Can't give people too many words!
October 14th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
Well, I tried to make it simple. Dairy sounds too complicated for me.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
Yeah, too much dairy makes my farts terribly stinky. My wife has a poor sense of smell though.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
maybe so, but Iowa ran wild on them, putting up 12 points when they had all they could do to score 3 on us.
Michigan 23 psu 17
GO BLUE
October 14th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
I don't think Iowa "ran wild" on Penn State.
Take out Stanley's rushing yards, a good chunk of which were sacks, and they had 75 yards on 24 carries (3.1 per).
Darn near exactly the same as Iowa vs. Michigan the week prior, again taking out Stanley's yards (66 yards on 22 carries, for 3.0 per).
Goodson did have one run he broke for 29 yards vs. PSU, yes.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
I assume/hope that they were being sarcastic?
October 14th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
Hey, they scored four times the points against PSU!
October 14th, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^
LOL - you are probably right.
The damn analytical part of my brain takes everything seriously and wants to bring the numbers out!
October 14th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
I just heard a distinct whoosh-ing sound...
October 14th, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
He's probably trying to say Iowa's offense looked better against Penn St's defense than against Michigan's. Which it did. The pressure of these big games can make a fan exaggerate. That's where "ran wild" can come from.
Stats from the 2 Iowa games, Michigan and Penn St:
Michigan
Penn St.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:57 PM ^
PSU strength of schedule sucks. Only good comparison is head-to-head Iowa matchups. Statistical conclusion:
- UM Defense > PSU Defense
- UM Offense = PSU Offense
At a neutral site this game is a toss-up. White-out night game on Game Day ? High variance of outcomes, including UM can't handle the road environment and game isn't that close. Can the team play a flawless game on the road ? Going to need to be a top effort for 60 full minutes, but there is a better than 21% chance that ESPNis giving us. I would say closer to 40% chance.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
nittany,
please share your candid take on the game. you are a good egg and an avid fan, and it would be good to hear your analysis.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
You know that's interesting. I'd like to see a post made by a fan of the other team. I would make it a point to not downvote it. I would just want to see something of what the other side is seeing about the game.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
if you haven't noticed, nittany is pretty level-headed, i don't think he's a joepa apologist at all, and as i mentioned, he is an avid fan who usually has some pretty insightful statistical back-up for his premises.
in fact, he's such a good guy that i invited him to some other mgoblogger's tailigate. very magnanimous of me, i know.
October 14th, 2019 at 2:28 PM ^
I'll have to try to hit that tailgate next year. I usually travel back from Colorado to Michigan when PSU plays their annual game in MI. Not this year, though, I'm missing PSU @ MSU in 12 days.
Anyway - as for my prediction, I don't have too much ground-breaking:
1. The teams are fundamentally about the same. Both better at D than O.
2. Each team has players who can explode, but neither team is overly explosive. Likely to be a grinding type of game. Edge U-M there, given they have the better defense of the 2.
3. As Bill Connelly says, in a game where explosiveness is limited, efficiency really matters. I think the PSU offense has the edge here among the 2 offenses. PSU also may have more upside. Per Connelly's stats, PSU had an increasingly better success rate each quarter vs. Iowa. I think that says something - and it may link into #6 below (the team's confidence level).
4. PSU special teams strike me as a bit better. PSU Punter Gilliken was a weapon vs. Iowa (2 punts inside the 10), he's legitimately good.
5. Per everything above, this game may be decided more by which team does NOT make mistakes vs. who does make plays. That's probably an edge to PSU. I am a believer that fumbles are inherently random (interceptions are not random), but U-M's fumbling struggles may actually not be random. U-M is just too much of an outlier in that regard.
6. PSU looks like a more confident team right now. They don't swagger, they don't really strut. But they strike me as Franklin's most mentally tough team in his 6 years there. U-M, I don't know. They almost seem to be going through the motions. Not to re-hash it all, but their look in that Illinois game was bizarre.
7. HFA, of course, is generally worth something.
Add that all up, and I can't argue too much with a PSU -7 spread. I wouldn't advise anyone I know to bet it either way. U-M can win, absolutely, I'd guess they have a 20%-25% chance. But that still makes them the underdog in 5 days.
October 14th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
Careful, you'll probably end up with Stockholm syndrome
October 14th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
Their defense is very good, but honestly hasn't been tested much. They did shut down Purdue (SP+ #15 Offense), but Purdue I feel like particularly is vulnerable to stalling against a good defense (except OSU for some reason). They've also played 3 teams who are offensively worse than Rutgers.
They will be the 3rd best defense we've seen statistically (Iowa/Wisconsin are both higher), but things didn't go exactly well against those two, so who knows.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
Jack Plummer also started at QB for Purdue since Sindelar was out - he is the the backup, but has played well in other games. They were also without Rondale Moore for the PSU game.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
They haven't played anyone with a decent offense, so hard to judge. But they looked pretty damn solid on Saturday.
First one to 20 wins - going to be a good game.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
The Penn State defense does not worry me.
The ineptitude of the Michigan offense scares the shit out of me.
The same Michigan O line pushed around the same Penn State Defensive line like a practice sled last season yet I have no confidence in a repeat performance.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:05 PM ^
Watching the replay of that game and I thought “we wanted to get rid of this offense for what we have now?”
October 14th, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^
It sounded like a good idea at the time...
October 14th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
Penn State is a very fast and aggressive front seven, the big concern is them getting TFL's and putting the offense in third and long which is a disaster waiting to happen on the road. QB keeps, screens and hitting the intermediate part of the defense behind the linebackers on playaction/RPO's would all be things to take advantage of their aggressive nature. Unfortunately, those are also the things Michigan's offense and playcalling never want to do.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
Not worried. I think the B1G offenses are generally putrid, which inflates their defensive rankings. They haven't yet faced a well-oiled machine like ours.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
Well oiled machine? Have we been watching different UM offenses this year?
October 14th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
He's referring to the fumbles. Maybe we should stop putting the game balls in the oil machine?
October 14th, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^
You seriously couldn't recognize the sarcasm there?
October 14th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
Normally I'd agree and repeat your comment... but there have been a number of topics/posts/comments posted here lately that make me question what people are tuning in to watch on the weekends.
Posts about "excitement," etc. are baffling. Unless our team has made people turn to the sauce earlier in the weeks.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:07 PM ^
So used to people using /s that I honestly was not sure
October 14th, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^
I don’t believe in the /s. The /s in my opinion is not good. A person shouldn’t believe in a /s, he should believe in himself.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
Beautiful sarcasm 4.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
If Michigan falls behind 14-0 anytime in the first half, they will then be done. If the game were in A2, we'd have a decent shot. I hope for the best but prepare for the worst.