Comparing Georgia-Bama and Michigan-Bama
- Both U-M (16-14) and Georgia (24-20) held slim leads at halftime
- Both were outscored 21-0 in the second half
- Both were able to run (sacks removed: U-M 40-184 (4.6), UGa 28-159 (5.7))
- Both got destroyed in the air (U-M allowed 13.1 per attempt, UGa 12.6)
There’s obviously a narrative about Harbaugh and the Michigan program right now, but qualitatively, I’m not sure there’s much difference between them and Georgia—despite Georgia’s superior recruiting. Georgia played a fairly even game against Notre Dame (whom U-M throttled) last year as well. Both Michigan and Georgia annually field strong defenses but don’t have the offensive firepower of the true elite.
Georgia certainly deserves credit for the one shootout they won (over Oklahoma) and nearly winning it all that season, but again, circumstances played a role. Auburn’s upset of Bama that year (2017) cleared Georgia’s path to the SEC title and the playoff. When they finally played Bama for the championship, they lost in overtime after holding a double-digit lead. Michigan did the exact same against Ohio State in 2016–the game just occurred in the regular season.
The principal difference between Georgia and Michigan, it seems, is one has a superpower in its division and one doesn’t.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
Georgia has made the national championship game in the past 5 years. Michigan under Harbaugh is more like Iowa under Ferentz.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:33 AM ^
You’re insane. Like Iowa? Routinely going 7-5 with a random 11-1 season rolled in because we got lucky with our crossovers that year and we’re able to beat the one moderately good team in our division?
No. I think the point the OP is making is that we would be exactly like Georgia - possibly have made the championship game, but almost certainly have made the playoffs - if we were in the B1G West, where there’s not a superpower. That’s what Georgia benefits from. They have a much easier division and path to the playoffs than we do.
October 18th, 2020 at 11:35 AM ^
2017: Iowa 8-5, Michigan 8-5
2018: Iowa 9-4, Michigan 10-3
2019: Iowa 10-3, Michigan 9-4
October 18th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
Yes because removing all context from records is a great basis for comparison:
2017 Iowa 8-5, SP+ #35, SOS #10
2017 UM 8-5, SP+ #13, SOS #14
2018 Iowa 9-4, SP+ #23, SOS #62
2018 UM 10-3, SP+ #10, SOS #26
2019 Iowa 10-3, SP+ #20, SOS #31
2019 UM 9-4, SP+ #10, SOS #6
(Used FPI for 2019 SoS, couldn't find SP+ numbers for that)
UM faced a significantly harder schedule in 2/3 of those years, and is statistically a much better team. Perhaps if we moved to the Big Ten west you'd feel better?
October 18th, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^
For real context, why not throw Georgia in there?
October 18th, 2020 at 3:58 PM ^
We ALL would feel better if we were in the West - or more accurately, if osu were!
October 18th, 2020 at 1:07 PM ^
Lol you’re leaving out literally 18 years of Iowa data.
here’s Iowa’s regular season records under ferentz:
‘99:1-10
‘00: 3-9
‘01: 6-5
11-1, 9-3, 9-2, 7-4, 6-6, 6-6, 8-4, 10-2, 7-5 (all pre divisions)
‘11 (division play begins): 7-5
’12: 4-8
’13: 8-4
’14: 7-5
’15: 12-0 (toughest game by far was @Wisc with crossovers of Indiana and Maryland, postseason lost to MSU who got skunked in playoff, and got ruined by Stanford)
’16: 8-4
’17: 7-5
’18: 8-4
’19: 9-3
You’re telling me that, if Michigan were in the west, that we would have those records?
we would Routinely go 7-5 and 8-4 (and even skunk a 4-8 In there) if we regularly played northwestern and Purdue instead of PSU and OSU? And don’t give me “yeah, but they beat OSU that time”. We all know how that happens...they’re not respected, and a team has a shit game while the other teams plays out of its mind.
you can’t just compare records and say “seee! We’re the same!!” How far down does that go? Would you say we’re Toledo because they also go 9-3 in a given year. Schedule strength matters.
October 18th, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^
Goblin, EVERYONE understands the frustration that Michigan isn't beating osu, making B10 title games, the CFP.
But why are you consistently ignoring all arguments that being in the B10 West it is substantially easier to accomplish making the B10 title game than in the East, and to pile up Ws to pad your record when you seldom play osu (or psu, or Michigan)?!
In what way do you think ignoring that bolsters your argument?
Because no one else on here is confused about it, or by your subterfuge!
October 19th, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^
SEC East usually has 2 ranked teams in it whereas the B1G East usually has 3.
October 18th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
Touché
October 18th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
But if OSU was in the other division, we'd have made the playoff in 2016. Georgia gets an annual boost from not having Bama in its division like we have the Buckeyes. The two programs are remarkably similar (and not coincidentally, both have had a lot of churn in the QB room.)
October 18th, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^
Georgia went to playoff three years ago thanks to the SEC being probably the worst it’s been in my lifetime and avoiding Alabama both in the season and conference championship.
It would be like if OSU was in the west division, we avoided playing them in the regular season, then missed playing them in the conference championship game because they were upset by Iowa.
Sure, they still went. But many special circumstances (none of which are available to us) made that possible.
October 18th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
Did you know that Georgia is only 270 miles away from Bama and they haven’t played there since 2007?
Bahaha. That’s sec for you. Michigan plays anyone anywhere. So gtfo with that crap.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:29 AM ^
Correct. All the angst is because the measuring stick for UM is OSU. But guess who gave that metric to UM?
I have no interest in a coaching search b/c Harbaugh is a cut above anyone UM could attract to the position. That does not mean the program gets a pass. Harbaugh needs to get over the hump. If he never beats OSU or finds a way into the B1G Championship and wins it, I’m sure he’d say his tenure was a failure.
I believe he’ll do it eventually. I just hope it’s sooner rather than later.
October 19th, 2020 at 9:54 AM ^
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbl-Ol0PZDI
just like the measuring stick for Georgia is Alabama. My concern has been for a long time that Michigan fans would drive ourselves nuts trying to compare ourselves to the Alabama equivalent, just like SEC programs have. Sometimes it works, most of the time you just put yourself on an evil hamster wheel.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
I've always thought Georgia under Smart was the best parallel for Michigan under Harbaugh.
Fast, aggressive defenses that ultimately buckle from the weight of supporting inefficient offenses and mediocre QB play.
October 18th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
I think they are a bit more talented across the board, but otherwise agreed. Their DTs are mansome and RBs go 4 deep.
The defenses even play the same way under pressure, bailing out offenses with superior athletes with untimely penalties and occasional big busts that result in 6.
Stetson played better than I expected but when they tried to lean on the pass it went badly, just like with Patterson against quality opponents.
October 19th, 2020 at 8:54 AM ^
Is Stetson short? Blocked passes galore...
October 19th, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^
The say he's 5'11". He might be with Burt Reynolds shoes. He also throws a pretty flat ball in his short/intermediate passes.
October 18th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^
It would also help if Michigan had offensive linemen like Alex Leatherwood.
October 18th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
Emil Ekiyor also looked good
October 18th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
We were also playing Bama in a meaningless bowl game on a neutral site while they had 2 top 100 draft picks sitting out. I get your point, and there's definitely some validity to it, but there are also some important caveats here.
October 18th, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^
Didn’t Michigan have some very good players sitting out that bowl game also
October 18th, 2020 at 1:55 PM ^
Bama was down 2 of their 9 top-100 2020 NFL draft picks? That would mean they had 7 suited up (to Michigan’s 2, although I don’t recall Uche playing much). That would be same number as OSU had when they stomped us. Turns out, talent makes a difference. Nor do I subscribe to the notion that either Harbaugh or Saban took their head-to-head lightly, it’s just not part of their makeup. I imagine some of the players weren’t as motivated, but just not the ones who wanted to maintain a strong relationship with their coaching staff.
I’m unclear what caveats I’m missing.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:01 PM ^
I get your point Grampy. I don't buy into the notion that either side was not motivated. Jerry Jeudy was certainly motivated and we had no answer in covering or catching him at any point.
October 18th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Leave the respective games against 'bama and THEEEE ohio aside for a second.
Michigan has not beaten a single good team on the road under Harbaugh. I would think, but have not checked, that Georgia under Smart has.
October 18th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
1 point win at ND in 2017, at Kentucky in 2018 and Auburn last year (finished 9-4) are their only “tough” road wins, but to call those tough games you’d have to also give Michigan credit for beating Big Ten West Champ Northwestern on the road
October 18th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
Auburn's 4 losses were to teams that finished the year in the Top 10 - LSU, Goergia, Florida, Minnesota. UK and ND finished those seasons ranked in the Top 15.
October 18th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^
You're right I stand corrected, Harbaugh's best road win is against #19/#21 ranked Northwestern - nothing to get so excited about, can't imagine telling that to Bo if he was still alive.
October 18th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
Bo was alive to watch Lloyd’s bi-annual shitting himself when we went to South Bend. I always wondered what those Sundays looked like in the Fort.
October 18th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
Probably not much different then the sundays in the fort after a game in South Bend when Bo was the head coach. Bo went 2-3 in South Bend and Carr was 1-3.
October 18th, 2020 at 3:08 PM ^
Bo was 11-9-1 against THEEEEE ohio, including his epic 1969 win against one of their greatest teams ever.
October 18th, 2020 at 9:56 PM ^
Oklahoma and baker mayfield in rose bowl
October 18th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^
Exactly. People are focusing on the wrong things. You have to be able to win road games.
October 18th, 2020 at 11:27 AM ^
Yes, despite having top five talent and being in a favorable division, Georgia doesn't really win anything of note due to their insistence on running a dumb offense that prioritizes things other than scoring points. Just like Michigan.
October 18th, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^
Would Georgia have needed a missed field goal by Army?
October 18th, 2020 at 2:30 PM ^
Would Michigan have gone to double OT and eventually lose to a 4-8 South Carolina team while scoring only 17 points? Maybe...(?)
October 19th, 2020 at 8:59 AM ^
Georgia already had "speed in space." UM was trying to figure it out, is my guess.
October 18th, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^
Michigan (and UGA) do not have elite QB play. That was the BIGGEST difference in both games.
That said, Michigan shouldn't be focusing on beating Alabama or Ohio State. They need to focus on winning all their OTHER games. Once you can routinely make it to The Game at 11-0 or 10-1, then you can worry about taking the next steps to be a national power.
October 18th, 2020 at 8:33 PM ^
That's the next step especially the road games. We have to start winning those away games against the likes of Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa. We have a great chance against Minnesota but the team has to come out ready to play.
October 18th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
UGA has more talent across the board, specifically guys recruited within the past 4 years.
I'd put them 1/2 a peg above Michigan, they don't have holes at positions besides QB, whereas we often lack a DT or CB or play making safety.
We've lost to OSU costing us playoff spots, both because they have been better (blowing us out the past 2 years), but also they have been incredibly lucky in the close games. UGA plays opposite Bama in the divisions, helping them make the playoff one year.
Get us right at DT and QB and we will be back to playing OSU close and competing for the playoffs. We won't be Bama, Clemson or OSU - but we'd be competitive with them on any given day.
That said, while if we played in the B1G West I'm sure we'd be in better shape competing for the playoffs, I'm not sure we'd be successful playing in the SEC East given the crossover games.
Basically SEC > B1G. But yes, essentially, Georgia : SEC :: Michigan : B1G
I would also not be surprised if UGA sees Bama twice again this year and beats them in the SEC championship game, then loses to them in the 2 vs 3 game in the playoff.
October 18th, 2020 at 3:51 PM ^
We wasted the early Harbaugh momentum with crappy QB play and questionable offensive schemes. If we're going to get into the upper echelon with teams like UGA we need to fix the offense and get a talent conveyor belt going at QB, and then regain momentum on defensive recruiting. At this point, best case scenario is we get back into serious playoff contention in 3-4 years. I think Harbaugh can do it, maybe, but he has to get some things right on offense very quickly. He's wasted a lot of time already.
October 18th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
Exactly my thoughts after watching this game. Sure looked like the Citrus bowl from Jan. 1
October 18th, 2020 at 8:00 PM ^
I had exactly the same thought as the OP watching the UGA game. A lot of parallels.
October 18th, 2020 at 9:10 PM ^
Both have not gotten high level of QB play.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:12 PM ^
Georgia would beat Michigan. Better coached, better players AND Michigan could not handle their wide receivers because of Brown's coverage schemes leaving players on an island with mismatched speed. Michigan is much more comparable to a WILL MUSCHAMP coached South Carolina program (who has beaten Michigan under Harbaugh),. They are not close to the South Carolina teams coached by Spurrier. Sorry guys. Michigan is no where close to Georgia and comparing them to Saturday nights game is a laughable pee wee football mentality. Michigan has been beaten by SC and waxed by Florida under Mullen. They simply would not do to well in the SEC. If your a middle of the road B10 team imagine playing in the best conference which is the SEC. Only OSU could really compete in the SEC and they would get banged around quite a bit.
October 18th, 2020 at 10:55 PM ^
Quite similar, this is a new season however with many changes hopefully for the better for us
October 18th, 2020 at 10:55 PM ^
Quite similar, this is a new season however with many changes hopefully for the better for us
October 19th, 2020 at 7:50 AM ^
Start by regularly beating the Minnys, PSUs and Wiskys of the world. Then we can bring the top tier programs into the debate.
One step at a time!