What if Rich Rod had the transfer portal?

Submitted by DesertDog on December 14th, 2023 at 6:43 PM

Thinking back on The Decimated Defense and all of the roster holes that Michigan was trying (largely unsuccessfully) to plug during the 2009 and 2010 seasons, what do you think would have happened if there had been an unrestricted transfer portal during those seasons? Do you think it wouldn't have made much of a difference because the problems were with coaching anyway? Or because the academic office is often a significant barrier to transfers? Or do you think Rich Rod would have been able to fill in the gaps much better than he was able to in real life? Would he have made it to a 2011 season and have been able to get that desperately needed win over Ohio State?

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Eng1980

December 14th, 2023 at 9:51 PM ^

The offense was a lot better when Robinson and Molk were not injured.

A more impactful difference would have been Denard's injuries and Molk's injuries.  Rich Rod's record, although pre-season, were a lot better with a future all-American center than without.  Imagine if Denard could plant his feet and throw while playing against MSU or OSU (he couldn't most years as he was injury prone.)

Joined: 04/28/2016

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bronxblue

December 14th, 2023 at 7:30 PM ^

While it's always fun to re-litigate I'll play along.

Assuming he doesn't bring Jeff Casteel along again, the defense is maybe a bit better but nothing amazing.  But what hurt UM those first two years was not having a QB who could really run the offense/wasn't a true freshman.  So that first year isn't trying to run a new offense with Steven "Dual" Threet and Nick Sheridan but instead some Pat White-type guy, likely with college experience.  Then that second year it's not true freshmen in Forcier and Denard, but a guy who's played the position for a year.

With that continuity they beat Toledo in 2008 and maybe also beat Utah and Purdue.  So instead of 3-9 they're 5-7/6-6.  Then the next year they can build on that and while the defense still isn't great it can take some chances and the offense cashes them in, so they go 7-5 or so.  And they can grow guys like Denard without as much pressure.  I think in the end RR falls apart because he's not likes enough and his defense is still shoddy but he won at Arizona and he's won a Jacksonville St. since.  Dudes a bit of a creep but he can win football games.

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bronxblue

December 14th, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^

He wasn't a stupid coach for trying to run the system he knew and had been successful everywhere else.  You don't hire RR to go under center just like you don't hire Carr to run a spread.

And he did make adjustments in his playcalling; he only ran his QBs around 110 times combined (he ran Pat White 200 times the year before).  But that wasn't a talented team anyway and it made sense to try to install his offense and see where the roster deficiencies were and try to fix them.

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JonnyHintz

December 14th, 2023 at 10:01 PM ^

He was definitely a stupid coach for running it the way he did. You can say “he only ran his QBs 110 times combined,” and pretend that’s a good thing, or you can say he ran Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan ~9 times per game and realize that’s not a winning formula. 
 

That does not mean you have to go under center. Rich Rod wasn’t hired just to run his offense, he was hired to win football games. You can install your offense and still tailor it to fit the personnel you do have. Brady Hoke came in wanting “man ball” and still found a way to utilize DRob’s legs. Ryan Day has tweaked his offense to fit the skillsets Justin Fields and CJ Stroud, two pretty different QBs. 
 

A gradual shift instead of flipping a switch would have led to more wins. It’s always stupid of a college coach to do something that sacrifices wins. 

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JonnyHintz

December 15th, 2023 at 5:38 AM ^

There are plenty of things you could have done on offense that don’t lead to a 3-9 season and a 13-10 loss to a team that went 3-9 in the MAC (with one of those 3 wins obviously being against us)

I’m not saying Michigan would have been Rose Bowl bound, but you cater your offense to the personnel you have. You incorporate concepts from your own offense and phase it in. Instead of under center, you still go shotgun. Instead of running those guys ~9 times a game, you avoid the QB run aspect almost entirely and incorporate more screens to add to the running scheme. 

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bo_lives

December 14th, 2023 at 10:04 PM ^

The team's problems went far beyond not having the right personnel. Losing to a horrible Toledo team at home (scoring just 10 points) was inexcusable. I distinctly remember watching the Notre Dame game the week prior, where the team had 4 fumbles lost, and thinking "this team is doomed". Was it because they were confused trying to run a completely new offense? Maybe, but if so that's just naivety and/or hubris on Rich Rod's part. Can't confuse your players so much they're fumbling kickoffs and getting manhandled by a MAC team.

Joined: 04/10/2011

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stephenrjking

December 14th, 2023 at 8:28 PM ^

This is a good framework to think about: a new coach coming in with the roster issues Michigan had after 2007 would come in with a mandate to buttress the roster through the portal. Of course, you'll lose guys, too, but Michigan lost a bunch of guys anyway. 

So RR picks up a QB that can run the offense, maybe looks for other pieces that better fit what he did in other skill positions. It's Michigan, so there's a pull there, but RR is still probably piecing together a Big East type roster rather than a top-end Big Ten one. 

But a Big East roster goes 500ish or better. It's bad, but it isn't the abject disaster that 08 was. Then again, it was clear early that 08 was bad, so he honestly got a bit of a pass for 08. But 5-7 in 09 was terrible, especially the way that year finished; having an experienced QB almost certainly improves that to at least a winning season and a bowl. And he'd be able to get some guys to plug into the gaping holes in the defense, so at least the personnel situation wouldn't be as grim.

But who coaches it? RR was just terrible at leading the program, and that showed most clearly with the defense. To postulate an RR regime that lasts beyond, say, 2012, surely the defense has to be several orders of magnitude better than it was, and that goes beyond personnel. 

The guys he got were the wrong guys. I mean, in retrospect, we can look at the landscape and say that if he had known to hire Don Brown he would have done better, but he didn't know that then and neither did we.

In the end, he might put together one year of 8-4 but it's otherwise 6-6 or 7-5 and maybe he's fired after 2011 instead of 2010. 

A more promising hypothetical that requires scarcely more leaps in logic: What if Michigan took a chance on young and unknown Jim Harbaugh after his first year at Stanford. 

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Eng1980

December 14th, 2023 at 10:01 PM ^

Good hypothetical thinking. 

One comment on Rich Rod at Arizona.  I knew it was a mirage because two wins over Oregon were with injured Mariota and not-playing Mariota while Oregon with Mariota crushed him in PAC-12 championship game.  Arizona upset ASU as a trap game between maybe UCLA and USC as they were all looking toward the division championship.  ASU had an uncharacteristic 4 turnovers while ASU usually gives up 1 per game and Arizona usually gets one per game.  There is no logic to Arizona forcing an exceptional number of turnovers.  Remove those three games and RichRod had a mediocre record feasting on weak competition.

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dmccoy

December 14th, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^

If the 2010 team has a bottom 75 defense instead of a bottom 10 defense, maaaaybe they flip their 10 point losses to wins. In that best case scenario they go 9-3 and RR keeps his job for one more year with a junior Denard Robinson. This also would have to assume that guys like Mike Martin or Craig Roh wouldn't GTFO and the defense would have been even worse.

In all likelihood, they still lose one or both of those games and go 8-4/7-5 and he gets fired anyway.

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JT4104

December 14th, 2023 at 8:15 PM ^

I will continue to say it was a style he wanted on defense and not the talent. There was enough talent to field a top 70 defense and they bombed with the stupid 335 with a guy who never really coached it

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Amazinblu

December 14th, 2023 at 8:27 PM ^

My mind doesn’t dwell on the past, at least very little prior to the start of the ‘21 season.

And, the thoughts since the ‘21 season began are much better…

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wesq

December 14th, 2023 at 8:35 PM ^

Water finds it’s level. It may have taken a little but he’s had plenty of chances since then to prove he was more than one great idea that he went all in on and had great success with. He hasn’t and he’s back to where he would’ve been without the read option. 

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Chris S

December 14th, 2023 at 8:45 PM ^

I was, am, and will always be a RichRod fan because he brought Denard into our lives. I would have traded almost anything to get 2 more years of him coaching - regardless of record - to get to see Denard use his gifts.

Would the portal have helped? I'm sure it would have. The thing it seems to help with the most is upgrade weak spots anywhere from a half grade to a full grade. So if our second corner was a C-, it probably would have got us to a C or C+, which can make a big difference.

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WayOfTheRoad

December 14th, 2023 at 9:02 PM ^

The answer for any coach before the new rules is "they'd have fared better or longer" as long as they coach had any level of personality or recruiting ability. Especially so if at a program with resources.

Take MSU right now. They just hired a coach that I think highly of. Their program is in a ditch so deep that it's kind of unbelievable and under the "old" system everyone would be saying that Smith may have them competitive in 3 to 4 years if he does a really good job of rebuilding. The fact that they'd be barely competitive for the first year or two would just be a given. Now? The new transfer system and NIL makes it so a charismatic coach with resources can totally rebuild a program in 2 years. For sure. I'd actually bet that MSU is immediately back to a bowl team and by year 2 will be a solid B1G team.

So any failed coach with resources and a good sales pitch would have had different results with this new system. Rodriguez may have had the bigger issue of a lack of school support but that's going into a totally different argument that's been had 100,000x between UM fans.

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falco_albo

December 14th, 2023 at 9:33 PM ^

What if he had gotten the Texas Tech job instead of the WVU job? Would we have been cursed with the seven terrible years of apocalyptic Michigan football? 

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