What to do with Jimmy (Harbaugh)
I know there has been a lot of JH discussions. Some say "can him!" Some say he's still a good coach that just can't beat elite teams. Some think the problem has been with his assistants which now appears to have switched from the offensive side to the defense...or maybe not. This analysis is an attempt to consider is JH good for UM, can we expect better, and how does he compare to his predecessors as well as our ever present juggernaut of a rival down south.
Intro - JH is pretty good, but annoyingly so
JH was successful at every other stop and by and large he's been successful at UM, but frustratingly so. We all know the losses to OSU, MSU, against ranked teams (particularly on the road), and in bowl games. We know the woes...the QB issues, the close calls against MSU, the 4th down spot, the Orange Bowl & Outback Bowl near misses, the injuries, JOK, Brandon Peters, Shea Patterson, etc. The list goes on and on. The reality is JH has not lived up to expectations. He's never beaten OSU. He's never made the playoffs. He's never won a conference title. But, he's not the only one.
His predecessors (1969 - present)
Hoke was good before he got to UM and won 11 games before things went off the rails. Rich Rod won 10-11 games three years in a row prior to arriving at UM. But, time has shown us that neither guy was really that great. Carr in his 13 years averaged 9.4 wins per year, the exact same as JH. Since neither played in a conference championship or playoff game, the season length was the same for both. But, Carr was 6-7 versus OSU whereas JH is 0-5. It's worth noting that Carr was 1-6 since Tressel took over, but by and large the losses were close unlike 3/5 years for JH.
Carr also had some frustrating trends with the prevent defenses. But, Carr had 3 top 5 recruiting classes and one top 6 class in his 7 classes in the 2000s. During that same time OSU only had one top 5 class. So, Carr's UM teams were more talented than Tressel's OSU teams despite the popular opinion to the contrary. However, in the following 13 classes since 2007, OSU has been in the top 5 of the rankings 8 times compared to UM's one.
To provide more context Moellar averaged 8 wins per year, but played one less game during his tenure with a 12 game season. Bo averaged 9.7 wins per year in an 11 game season. So, Gary was essentially the same as JH and Bo was better. Both fared better against OSU. Bo was about the same as Carr overall and Moellar was 3-1-1. Unfortunately internet recruiting rankings only go back to 2000 so we can't compare talent from those eras.
Is CFB different today?
So, when we walk down memory lane if we're looking at the recent history of UM football from 1969-today we see JH is roughly the same as Moellar & Carr and slightly worse than Bo, but significantly worse against OSU than all of them. However, when we look at recruiting it's clear OSU has recruited at a higher level post-Tressel with Meyer and Day than it historically had during the rest of it's recent history. The real question is why does UM expect to be a playoff team or to win B1G championships when essentially it can't do one without the other since OSU is a playoff team and in the same division? None of Gary's teams would have made the playoffs. Carr's '97 team would and possibly the 2006 team. Bo had several 1-loss teams in the early 70s that could have made the playoffs and a few in the 80s. So, in the past almost 40 years there really only a handful of playoff contending level teams and most of them belonged to Bo quite some time ago and probably none since 2000. I think the thing that falsely leads UM fans to think they are better than they are is their often lofty pre-season ranking. UM has the tendency to be in the top 5-10 in the preseason rankings, but more like the top 12-20 in the post season rankings. So, I think it's unfair to expect JH to make them a playoff team or even a conference champion with OSU as they currently are.
Take aways
Ultimately, I think we are looking for UM's version of Meyer, Saban, Swenney, but unfortunately we don't have a good modern day example of that ever occurring at UM. Bo was the closest thing, but even he had a bad bowl record and never won a NC and likely didn't have to deal with the juggernaut that OSU now is. Short of finding the next great coach, which seems unlikely, UM's best bet seems to be to wait for OSU stop being the Meyer/Day version and revert back to the Cooper, Fickell, and even Hayes versions. Honestly I have to assume Day is simply benefitting from Meyer's system. He may be a good schematic coach, but I doubt he could have built what Meyer did without him. So, our hope is that Meyer and Day move on from OSU and the job doesn't stay in house and the new coach has to reinvent the wheel, even if they are doing so with the benefit of a loaded roster. I know it sucks, but patience or luck are our best bets. That may revert us back to pre-RR standards, which aren't a lot different in terms of W/L records, but means we are competitive with OSU again and are more likely to win B1G championships.
Is there any hope moving forward?
You can still roll the dice and hope for more with another HC. Despite JH's W/L record and recruiting successes it's also clear there is some management issues there with all the reoccurring problems like recruiting holes, not getting up for big games, clock management, and the team just too often looking unprepared that makes you say WTF while watching them. Maybe you'll get all the good without some of the bad and that turns into a product a lot less frustrating, albeit without a ton of difference in the W/L column. But, maybe you'll get Hoke/RR 2.0. Or, maybe you'll get the same result but with slightly different problems. Here's to hoping Meyer takes another job, Day jumps to the NFL, and OSU hires someone that is not a generational talent and revert back to their historical norm and we once again get competitive with them and have the chance to win a conference title and every once in a blue moon get a string of luck and the right QB to take a run at the playoffs. So, keep him or try something new, the biggest take away is to be patient and wait for OSU to slow back down and until they do, don't expect much against them, a conference championship, or a playoff appearance. Shoot for 2016 or 2018 with a better bowl outcome.
November 7th, 2020 at 11:43 AM ^
Bo was 16-11-1 overall versus OSU. He was 4-5-1 against Woody. The important thing was that the program was equal to or better than OSU during those years and Moeller and Carr continued that at least until 2003 when we started down the road we're on now. The game has changed so much since 1969 it's hard to compare. With the advent of the divisions in the Big 10 and the college playoff there's much more of an all or nothing emphasis on results. Just having a good year and going to a bowl isn't enough any more especially if you go into the bowl without some players and lack of interest and lose so it's not a good end to the season. If they expand the playoffs to say 8 teams and Michigan makes it every 2 or 3 years even without beating OSU that would be a step forward and maybe our best hope in the short term to help our recruiting get to the next level.
November 6th, 2020 at 9:33 PM ^
I am not as invested, for sure, because I used to be rabid -- as in, never missing a game broadcast live.
My expectations are those things you mentioned, plus the basic assumption that, despite a boring-ass offensive scheme, we would beat every conference foe besides OSU regularly. Sure, we would lose games, but it didn't matter as much, because we assumed we'd be winning the next week. In the Harbaugh era, that type of feeling isn't there. 2016 brought it back for a while, but then Iowa at Kinnick happened, followed by 2016 OSU. It's gotten worse ever since.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
Talk of firing a coach during a pandemic is bad juju. Any coach we get us under immense pressure. Brace ourselves for a fate similar to Nebraska. Just dumb.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
This appeared lengthy.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:32 PM ^
I would welcome a coaching change. After 6 years the verdict is in on Harbaugh.
-His teams are unprepared and come out flat
-Sticks with game plans too long (when they aren't working) and turtles during adversity
-Recruiting doesn't seem to have an executive plan or is consistent...regional focus changes and we are not building steady pipelines to "reload" all positions yearly
-Constant in-game questionable decisions
-Teams seem undisciplined and constant penalties work against us week after week
-Inability to fire up his players
-Lack of success in road games
-Lack of success in games vs equal or superior teams...he never wins as an underdog
-Most of Harbaugh's wins are against teams he was supposed to win
-Quarterback development has not been good and Michigan QBs seem less prepared, after years in the program, then what other schools have ready even in freshman years
-Opposing teams, more than once, comment they know exactly what plays we'll run
November 6th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^
Agreed with all of that so long as the change recognizes the potential of a step back.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
I think expectations are pretty simple for UM:
- Best the lesser Big Ten regularly and decisively
- Beat MSU most of the time
- Best OSU maybe half the time
- Win the big ten every few years
- Once in a rare while, make a run at the NC
No matter how you look at it, Harbaugh has failed on almost all of those accounts (maybe not the first). If they hadn't shit the bed against MSU this year, you could argue at least he'd ticked that one off. But, they didn't.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^
I think Harbaugh has Asperger’s or some other form of autism. He is obviously smart and high functioning. However I think he is much better suited to the NFL. College hinges on recruiting and getting the players emotionally invested. I think Harbaugh has a hard time connecting with people and this hurts him in these areas. The NFL guys do their jobs and don’t need as much hand holding and you obviously don’t need to recruit. I think the problems at Michigan are bigger than Harbaugh and I don’t seem them ever beating OSU again. It is what it is.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:55 PM ^
The NFL is an offense first league too now so he isn't going to do any better there.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^
Michigan’s business program is obviously leading the nation. Give lucrative contracts for average (for the program’s history) results, don’t rock the boat, toe the company line, and a large payout awaits if we fire you. Sounds like the rest of corporate America. Nice and boring. I had no idea the Ford family was running UM as well.
So the answer is to just accept middling to good and hope OSU shoots itself in the foot. Damn that’s a bitch.
November 6th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
Just win
November 6th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
You inadvertently pointed out where we went awry... in this rivarly, when one deviated too far from the other and began to lose too much, the program would replace the coach with someone with the best chance to do so.... Carr began to lose consistently to Tressel... was time to bring in someone who could... ok, so they kept Carr on two years too long when he had wanted to leave... and passed on hiring Dantonio the one guy who could beat Tressel and get Ohio recruits...instead, we keep Carr on, and then don't make that hire, and go with RR, and the rest is history.
November 6th, 2020 at 2:53 PM ^
Thanks for taking the time to write out your thoughts.
As for the main question of what to do with Harbaugh? I think the answer to that is to transition him to the AD. Not THE AD, but make him assistant AD with a focus on Student Athlete Advancement or something corny like that. He is on the correct side of everything having to do with student athlete rights. Let him fight the NCAA on that battlefield.
The replacement? I think (and this is just my unimportant opinion) that the UM job being a top job has worked against them. RR and Hoke (especially Hoke) probably thought they made it when they got the job. JH is a different situation because he was fighting for something he deeply loved. But, either way, he was set up forever money wise.
UM needs to hire a young OC that needs to win. UM needs a hungry dog. Offer them something like 2-3 mil with a lot of incentives.
My choice would be Charlie Frye OC at CMU. He played in the league. He coached in high school in FL so he has connections down there. He is from OH so he has connections there. OSU spurned him so he has incentive to beat them. He has some fire. He is young so he has a lot to prove. He improves the QB. His offenses are fun and cohesive. Their first game of the season was wed and he put a freshman QB out there who didn't look overwhelmed. He had some wrinkles but not too many.
November 6th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
I say keep him or fire him.
November 6th, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
Giant wall of text than more than likely rehashed everything that has already been discussed.
November 6th, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
Maybe Stephen M. Ross can take a page out of the George Steinbrenner book and just hire Ryan Day away from OSU so that he can be the next coach of the Miami Dolphins.
November 6th, 2020 at 3:48 PM ^
The common denominator of the Harbaugh era is qb ineptitude.
Development and performance.
Its just that simple folks.
November 6th, 2020 at 3:57 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh's career at Michigan seems to revolve around one game. 2016 at Iowa. Harbaugh was rolling, 19-3 at Michigan and up 10-0 in Iowa City at Night. Then De'Veon Smith got tackled in the end zone and Wilton Speight's shoulder got hurt. Michigan is 30-16 since that game. Harbaugh is 6-10 in games decided by 7 points or less and 3-4 in games decided by 3 points or less. 3 of those four losses by three or less points came in 2016. Had Michigan got one of those wins, things would probably feel a lot different.
November 6th, 2020 at 7:09 PM ^
Didn't he give up on Speight after that ?
November 6th, 2020 at 7:16 PM ^
But winning the next week would have made up for that. Losing both games was the kicker. Win one of them and they're probably in the playoffs and then who knows.
November 6th, 2020 at 4:36 PM ^
Props for the apparently well-thought-out post...
But this narrative is so exhausting that I couldn't even get thru this one.
I just want M to win more, at this point, with or without Harbaugh as HC.
November 6th, 2020 at 5:30 PM ^
I am starting to think it is not just a coaching problem but rather it is a cultural issue.
November 6th, 2020 at 6:22 PM ^
That must have been a long time on the John to write such a long post, MGoStrengthen, I’d get more fiber if I were you.
November 6th, 2020 at 7:02 PM ^
Harbaugh had Meyer on the ropes. Then lost and the Brown hire, and going away from Speight, were both errors. I might be wrong on the latter. But i implore you to remember the Durkin days. We had that edge. Lost it with Brown. Sorry but true. I've always said I prefer Durkin's D to Browns and have gotten always negged.
November 6th, 2020 at 8:20 PM ^
We don't have to beat osu or win B1G titles. Nobody is demanding that. We just want to be competitive with osu and not lose to teams we shouldn't so damn consistently. Many coaches have started their tenure with an average or worse team and have BUILT. I ask what exactly is harbaugh building? He even talked about building in his introductory press conference when he gave a construction analogy. However, over the last 5+ years he's built one part only to have another part deteriorate. He can't seem to get past the foundation. And I'm sorry, but michigan has never cared how good the competition was. The coaches have always been brought in to win league titles. And as for the comment about meyer, day, saban and swinney being unicorns... bull. Saban is a unicorn just like bryant was, the others are just this generations bowden, stoops, osbourne, jimmy johnson, mckay, etc. Once year 3 passed we all knew harbaugh wouldn't have michigan on the same trajectory as many of those other great coaches. So we thought maybe he'd take the osbourne or swinney route. I can't comment much on osbourne since i wasn't alive for much of his career but swinney i remember vividly. They started out average at best and he built that program to what it is now. They couldnt beat south carolina and florida st was a juggernaut for a bit there. He didnt worry about that, he just kept recruiting a little better and a little better and kept winning more game and more games. Winning brings recruits, recruits bring more wins. We have to win the winnable ones and keep osu closer than we have. If we were to ever go 11-1 two years in a row we would see our recruiting improve dramatically. Then we would see our performances improve dramatically and so on. Eventually, we WOULD catch osu and maybe, just maybe, we would be able to surpass them by pulling some recruits they would normally get away from them.
November 6th, 2020 at 9:02 PM ^
My apologies -- I didn't read all the responses, so if I duplicate, it's not on purpose.
Should Harbaugh Go? Yes.
Though he wins at about the same percentage as Bo/Carr, he has a markedly worse record against rivals. OSU can be explained - they are on an historic upswing. PSU/MSU/Wisconsin cannot be readily explained if you assume JH is the same quality coach as Bo/Carr.
Harbaugh has not committed fully to the modern offense, does not use tempo, and can't manage the clock like an elite coach. He is wedded to a DC who cannot adapt, his defensive recruiting is getting worse, and he cannot get his teams to play at a high level each week. The QB position has not been developed appropriately here during his tenure -- in fact, most Michigan QBs regress with more time in the system. He has a high number of players "jumping ship", whether to transfer or the NFL. That's fishy, and we may only learn why if a book comes out.
Will Harbaugh Go? Not until he wants to.
Harbaugh graduates his players, remains essentially scandal-free, and maintains the team in a good enough state (as of now) to fill the Big House and generate appropriate revenue. The AD and President do not appear to be the type of men that will oust Harbaugh, and he does not seem to be the kind of coach who would bail on his contract early.
My overall take -- I hope Harbaugh will play out his contract and leave Michigan at the end of 2021. I hope he structures his exit with enough notice so that a proper coaching search can happen, and I hope that search is focused on up-and-coming, energetic coaches who embrace the modern college offense and play sound defense. No, we're not getting Meyer or Dabo. But with the right search we can get someone who restores Michigan to a program that consistently beats PSU, MSU, and Wisconsin level programs and one that can at least challenge OSU at home. I don't think it's a stretch to say we can land a coach that averages a bit better record than what Harbaugh has.
November 6th, 2020 at 9:41 PM ^
I appreciate the amount of work out into this. One thing I dispute though is that Bo never encountered a juggernaut OSU. His first season happened the year after OSU won the NC and faced a team Woody Hayes considered even better. Bo's team designed itself specifically to beat ohio state and succeeded. I think there was an interview with Dan Dierdorf where he said something like, in the '69 game Michigan saw something very familiar in the Ohio State team, themselves. Something like that.
So, yes it can be done, can be done quickly, Bo did it, and after 6-8 years even Bo slid into a steady state.
November 6th, 2020 at 10:02 PM ^
Harbs has committed coaching fraud by consistently taking over play calling the O in big games, and just letting Brown continue to coach the D with ridiculous 3-3-5 that gets stomped by any team that throws deep.
Will always bleed Maize & Blue, but Harbs has to go
November 7th, 2020 at 7:28 AM ^
Time for a deep, deep housecleaning.