What to do with Jimmy (Harbaugh)
I know there has been a lot of JH discussions. Some say "can him!" Some say he's still a good coach that just can't beat elite teams. Some think the problem has been with his assistants which now appears to have switched from the offensive side to the defense...or maybe not. This analysis is an attempt to consider is JH good for UM, can we expect better, and how does he compare to his predecessors as well as our ever present juggernaut of a rival down south.
Intro - JH is pretty good, but annoyingly so
JH was successful at every other stop and by and large he's been successful at UM, but frustratingly so. We all know the losses to OSU, MSU, against ranked teams (particularly on the road), and in bowl games. We know the woes...the QB issues, the close calls against MSU, the 4th down spot, the Orange Bowl & Outback Bowl near misses, the injuries, JOK, Brandon Peters, Shea Patterson, etc. The list goes on and on. The reality is JH has not lived up to expectations. He's never beaten OSU. He's never made the playoffs. He's never won a conference title. But, he's not the only one.
His predecessors (1969 - present)
Hoke was good before he got to UM and won 11 games before things went off the rails. Rich Rod won 10-11 games three years in a row prior to arriving at UM. But, time has shown us that neither guy was really that great. Carr in his 13 years averaged 9.4 wins per year, the exact same as JH. Since neither played in a conference championship or playoff game, the season length was the same for both. But, Carr was 6-7 versus OSU whereas JH is 0-5. It's worth noting that Carr was 1-6 since Tressel took over, but by and large the losses were close unlike 3/5 years for JH.
Carr also had some frustrating trends with the prevent defenses. But, Carr had 3 top 5 recruiting classes and one top 6 class in his 7 classes in the 2000s. During that same time OSU only had one top 5 class. So, Carr's UM teams were more talented than Tressel's OSU teams despite the popular opinion to the contrary. However, in the following 13 classes since 2007, OSU has been in the top 5 of the rankings 8 times compared to UM's one.
To provide more context Moellar averaged 8 wins per year, but played one less game during his tenure with a 12 game season. Bo averaged 9.7 wins per year in an 11 game season. So, Gary was essentially the same as JH and Bo was better. Both fared better against OSU. Bo was about the same as Carr overall and Moellar was 3-1-1. Unfortunately internet recruiting rankings only go back to 2000 so we can't compare talent from those eras.
Is CFB different today?
So, when we walk down memory lane if we're looking at the recent history of UM football from 1969-today we see JH is roughly the same as Moellar & Carr and slightly worse than Bo, but significantly worse against OSU than all of them. However, when we look at recruiting it's clear OSU has recruited at a higher level post-Tressel with Meyer and Day than it historically had during the rest of it's recent history. The real question is why does UM expect to be a playoff team or to win B1G championships when essentially it can't do one without the other since OSU is a playoff team and in the same division? None of Gary's teams would have made the playoffs. Carr's '97 team would and possibly the 2006 team. Bo had several 1-loss teams in the early 70s that could have made the playoffs and a few in the 80s. So, in the past almost 40 years there really only a handful of playoff contending level teams and most of them belonged to Bo quite some time ago and probably none since 2000. I think the thing that falsely leads UM fans to think they are better than they are is their often lofty pre-season ranking. UM has the tendency to be in the top 5-10 in the preseason rankings, but more like the top 12-20 in the post season rankings. So, I think it's unfair to expect JH to make them a playoff team or even a conference champion with OSU as they currently are.
Take aways
Ultimately, I think we are looking for UM's version of Meyer, Saban, Swenney, but unfortunately we don't have a good modern day example of that ever occurring at UM. Bo was the closest thing, but even he had a bad bowl record and never won a NC and likely didn't have to deal with the juggernaut that OSU now is. Short of finding the next great coach, which seems unlikely, UM's best bet seems to be to wait for OSU stop being the Meyer/Day version and revert back to the Cooper, Fickell, and even Hayes versions. Honestly I have to assume Day is simply benefitting from Meyer's system. He may be a good schematic coach, but I doubt he could have built what Meyer did without him. So, our hope is that Meyer and Day move on from OSU and the job doesn't stay in house and the new coach has to reinvent the wheel, even if they are doing so with the benefit of a loaded roster. I know it sucks, but patience or luck are our best bets. That may revert us back to pre-RR standards, which aren't a lot different in terms of W/L records, but means we are competitive with OSU again and are more likely to win B1G championships.
Is there any hope moving forward?
You can still roll the dice and hope for more with another HC. Despite JH's W/L record and recruiting successes it's also clear there is some management issues there with all the reoccurring problems like recruiting holes, not getting up for big games, clock management, and the team just too often looking unprepared that makes you say WTF while watching them. Maybe you'll get all the good without some of the bad and that turns into a product a lot less frustrating, albeit without a ton of difference in the W/L column. But, maybe you'll get Hoke/RR 2.0. Or, maybe you'll get the same result but with slightly different problems. Here's to hoping Meyer takes another job, Day jumps to the NFL, and OSU hires someone that is not a generational talent and revert back to their historical norm and we once again get competitive with them and have the chance to win a conference title and every once in a blue moon get a string of luck and the right QB to take a run at the playoffs. So, keep him or try something new, the biggest take away is to be patient and wait for OSU to slow back down and until they do, don't expect much against them, a conference championship, or a playoff appearance. Shoot for 2016 or 2018 with a better bowl outcome.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:01 PM ^
Other than the fact we still lost two other games those years you're exactly right. I think you're purposely missing the point here. We are not in the tier just below Ohio, we're in the tier below that one. There is no reason we couldn't be in that tier and if we get there we'll beat OSU occasionally.
November 6th, 2020 at 2:49 PM ^
But we already said the record isn't the problem, it's losing to the rivals that is the problem and not winning championships. So, if we remove those pieces he is doing what we ask. No ever said the expectation is to go 13-0. If he drops a loss game to Iowa in 2016, but wins the B1G everyone would be happy. If he drops a 7 pt game at ND, but wins the B1G in 2018 everyone is happy. He's consistently beating the bottom half of the league, splitting with MSU, Wiscy, & PSU, and always losing to OSU. Minus OSU that's what Carr & Bo did.
November 6th, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
That has nothing to do with anything I said.
" If he drops a loss game to Iowa in 2016, but wins the B1G everyone would be happy. If he drops a 7 pt game at ND, but wins the B1G in 2018 everyone is happy. "
Maybe, but he's not doing those things.
November 6th, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^
So, then it comes back to OSU. No former UM coach was capable of beating the juggernaut that OSU currently is. I think it's unrealistic to expect JH to do that.
November 6th, 2020 at 7:05 PM ^
No it comes back to beating the other teams. You close the gap by beating everyone else once in a while and then take aim for OSU. Got to be able to crawl before you can learn to walk.
November 6th, 2020 at 9:51 PM ^
Carr and Bo split with MSU, PSU, and Wisconsin? C'mon man....
Bo: 17-4 versus MSU, 18-1 versus Wisconsin.
Carr: 10-3 versus MSU, 9-2 versus PSU, 7-2 versus Wisconsin
"Splitting"? More like dominating. That's what I grew up accustomed to. Not Harbaugh's record against them.
November 7th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^
No they actually didnt, UM finished 6-2 in 2016 and OSU and PSU finished 7-1.
November 6th, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
I don't think it's reasonable to ever expect a run like OSU has had out of Michigan. However, I do think it is reasonable to expect to beat them once every 4 years considering Auburn does the same against Alabama who is on a more historic run.
Look at a program like Florida, who we crushed in 2015 and 2017, and what they have done so far since then. No they haven't gotten over the Georgia hump yet, but they went 10-3 in 2018 and beat the tar out of us in the Orange Bowl, and last year went 11-2 and again won the Orange Bowl. They also look like they could get over the Georgia hump this year, we will see tomorrow.
And don't tell me they have more talent, Florida has recruited right in the same range as us the last 5 years.
November 6th, 2020 at 4:05 PM ^
Agreed there. I think this falls into one of the many criticisms of JH. The QB, the clock management, the gashed defensive performances, the missed assignments, etc. This is where I think there is room for improvement with someone else if they can recruit as well as JH and his staff. That's the upside if giving someone else a try. You may not get past OSU, but you may get a less frustrating, slightly better version of what we have now.
November 6th, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^
All valid points and I agree. I didn't expect JH to beat OSU in the first couple of seasons. 2016 was a welcome sight even though we did lose by a hair. I expected JH to inch Michigan closer and closer to their level over the course of 4 or 5 seasons. In year 6 we should be at a point where the game is a toss up. If anything the gap has widened.
November 6th, 2020 at 10:15 AM ^
Very thorough and well thought out. I think it is simple, it comes down to Warde Manuel and how he feels. I would like to think he is sitting Jim down and giving him some kind of mandate to show improvement.
If I'm honest, I think Warde is probably more cheerleading than anything and is in Jim's corner. It's frustrating from my point of view.
I think this is what Jim is, good coach, not great. He's good for 8-10 victories a year and who knows, maybe he'll get lucky and get a generational QB to put him over the top. I don't see it in the near future. 10 years ago, I would be melting down and wanting him fired. Today, I'm writing off the season to Covid and looking forward to a competitive basketball team.
November 6th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^
I tend to think more like blueheron and that Warde is probably more concerned about revenue than overall winning. Not to minimize the point that by winning more, UM football will generate more revenue, or that Warde doesn't care at all about winning. However, Warde is in charge of the entire Athletic Department. I think the salary he paid Jim Harbaugh, although it doesn't match our expectations in his winning percentage, particularly against our rivals and in bowl matchups, is providing enough revenue that he will likely sign him to an extended contract.
The likelihood of finding someone of Saban, Dabo, or Meyer's ability to win, is small to none. So, until the revenue from Michigan football starts to decline to some point that only Warde knows, I suspect we are going to keep Harbaugh until he decides to step down on his own.
November 6th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
can we not call him Jimmy?
November 6th, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^
I'm not sure changing the coach will change the results. I just read JH's comments in Bacon's recent book about recruiting and it reflects the limitations that the Michigan football enterprise places on itself...
"If you want to make Michigan great, and make yourself great, this is a great place to be," Harbaugh told me. "The ones you have to oversell what we have to offer, you know it's not going to work. If you don't get the appeal of this program, of a Michigan education, of the kind of camaraderie you get working with like-minded people -- well, I don't know what to tell you. You'll probably be happier somewhere else -- and maybe we will be too!"
In addition to filtering for academics, chemistry, and character, Michigan drops anyone who hints about getting paid. The rampant cheating among some of college football's highest-ranked programs is the worst kept secret in college sports.
Where does that leave the coaches and players who aren't cheating? On the outside looking in, trying to do it the hard way, and getting no credit for it from the NCAA or the media. In this bizarre world where the guilty are praised and the innocent are punished, perhaps the biggest surprise is that some coaches still try to play by the rules anyway, and some players turn down illicit money to play for them. But how doubly delicious it is when an honest program actually beats the cheaters.
As Harbaugh said to me, "Hard to beat the cheaters."
It is hard to beat the cheaters indeed.
November 6th, 2020 at 10:42 AM ^
I don't see any evidence that OSU has some blatant cheating scandal going on. Maybe they do and maybe they don't. But, that's just speculation from the outside. While I do think Meyer et. al are more willing to put talent ahead of other attributes like "character" or academics, I have also seen examples of them turning talented guys away because of recruiting violations like with Parsons and flat out stopping recruiting guys who implied they wanted money. It sounds like an excuse to me. If JH wants to win he needs to recruit the best players he can get and stop worrying about other stuff he wasn't hired to do. He was hired to win football games, not make lawyers, teachers, and doctors.
November 6th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
Agree. There's surely something ilicit going on at all college programs, some worse than others, but unless there's proof it sounds like a whiny bitch excuse.
November 6th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
Did they have issues under their last 2 coaches?
November 6th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
Yep - this is why I've made peace with the idea of letting OSU break from the B1G peloton and race up to be with the Alabamas, Clemsons and Oklahomas. They fit that cultural profile more closely these days and that is their choice to become that.
We will continue to race in the peloton with Wisconsin, PSU, Notre Dame, perhaps Stanford...
It would be nice to have it all, but the elite talent generally doesn't place a lot of value in those things Jim mentioned above.
November 6th, 2020 at 10:33 AM ^
When I have a big dilemma like this, I like to get drunk and pass out
November 6th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
Bo also coached in an era of the Big Two when few other Big 10 teams had much of a shot of beating Michigan or Ohio State on a regular basis.
The scholarship reductions (don't remember when - early 90s?) allowed the bottom feeders to have a crack at some decent kids and increase their competitiveness making it harder for Michigan and Ohio State to essentially have a one game season like it was in the 70s.
So if you look at the era of 85 scholarships, we are now essentially right where we have always been.
November 6th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^
The scholarship reductions (don't remember when - early 90s?) allowed the bottom feeders to have a crack at some decent kids and increase their competitiveness making it harder for Michigan and Ohio State to essentially have a one game season like it was in the 70s.
If that's the case then OSU shouldn't have created such a gap between everyone else now. OSU is better now than they were then. The reality is OSU has adapted and UM has not the the same degree.
So if you look at the era of 85 scholarships, we are now essentially right where we have always been.
Agreed, which is why I don't think we should expect any more so long as Meyer/Day are at OSU.
November 6th, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
Right, initially I was thinking of a reason as to why Ohio State has had so much success, and the scholarship limits weren't it. I think you are right, that the key is that on many fronts, Ohio State has been quicker to adapt to changes. Perhaps they had more success recruiting the south before anyone else in the midwest, which started their rise, took advantage of the fertile Ohio recuiting ground and locked Michigan out, and changed game philosophy sooner to a faster paced, modern offense. Meahwhile, Michigan has spent decades with a philosophy of "We're Michigan" and we play football a certain way, we recruit a certain way, and we will win games by winning the time of possession and running the ball. Earlier post on the RR interwiew alludes to a similar attitude he encountered at Michigan.
November 6th, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
The Hayes version of Ohio State was coming off a national championship when Bo was hired and he was able to defeat them in his first year! That OSU team was also considered the greatest team in college football history before Bo knocked them off and won an outright B1G Championship. The revisionist history that Ryan Day's version of OSU is better than a 4 time national champion Woody Hayes' version is completely false. Bo also had a much better record against MSU 6 years in.
The angst with Jim is centered around who he's losing to, not how many games he's winning. I would also push back on comparing win totals today to the 70's and 80's, because a lot of those years we would play 2 elite non conference opponents. For example, in 1988 we played Notre Dame AND number 1 ranked Miami. In 1970, we played Arizona, at Washington and Texas A&M in the nonconference and won all 3 of those games. Compare that to last year we played Middle Tennessee State, Army and Notre Dame. We ended up with 9 wins both last year and in 1988, but those seasons couldn't be more different. In 1988, we beat Michigan State and Ohio State, won the B1G championship and the Rose Bowl to cap off a 4th ranked finish in the AP Poll. Last year we beat MSU, but finished 3rd in our division, lost the final two games of the season and ended up ranked 18th in the final AP Poll.
That's why people are frustrated.
November 6th, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
That OSU team was also considered the greatest team in college football history before Bo knocked them off and won an outright B1G Championship.
Unfortunately we don't have recruiting rankings that far back so there is no way to differentiate the talent level. But, we can recognize is things are different now. Scholarship limits are different. B1G alignment is different. So, it's not easy to compare apples to apples.
The Hayes version of Ohio State was coming off a national championship when Bo was hired and he was able to defeat them in his first year!
We hired a guy that was an understudy from Woody. Maybe it's time to go that route again. Hafley?
The angst with Jim is centered around who he's losing to, not how many games he's winning
Agreed
I would also push back on comparing win totals today to the 70's and 80's, because a lot of those years we would play 2 elite non conference opponents.
Agreed. The push back to that argument is the scholarship limits. We could stock pile recruits and there was no transfer portal. Players have more power than ever before and once you get past the elite (OSU, Bama, Clemson) the bottom half of the league is a lot better than the middle/upper half minus the one elite team.
November 6th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^
There is a path we haven't tried yet. How about we hire someone who tries to score points on offense while still playing some defense?
November 6th, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^
Tl;dr
Multiple coordinator and position coach changes; with one constant - the HC.
jim Harbaugh:john cooper
You can’t consistently lose the big rivalry games and survive. Let the existing contract expire at end of its term. Throw a nice firm handshake party and thank him for his service.
Hire energetic younger coaches with something to prove and who are in touch with modern, winning football concepts and adapt to the game as required.
November 6th, 2020 at 5:26 PM ^
This is exactly where I'm at
November 6th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
Isn’t the only thing that matters is beating Ohio. About to go 0-6 when is that not ok for you?
it’s over he needs to go
November 6th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
It's pretty apparent that Harbaugh is a high floor, low ceiling coach at this point. Hard to see us ever scraping for bowl eligibility (this year excepted), but it's also hard to see him achieving a perfect season or going 20-8 against top 10 teams like Lloyd did.
November 6th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
This is a well thought out, rational observation based around history and fact. Usually I'm a big supporter of staying grounded in reality. We may not know until after years later (may be a John U. Bacon essay or chapter) but rousing the team up to win a game, a series or a season doesn't seem to be a strength of his anymore.
The coach isn't inflexible - he came in with a QB under center, a fullback, a TE, etc, and now he has a full spread attack. He came in with a certain type of defense, and now had gone with a Don Brown pressure defense which might work if he can get a steady stream of NFL caliber CBs - there will be jobs for any CB coming out that cover a guy 5-6 seconds one-on-one without grabbing and fouling constantly. He hasn't shuffled his same old cronies around.
But maybe this type of coaching may not be his strength. It was certainly a strength of the great venerated and beloved Bo. It is easy to forget with the rosy nostalgia tinged retrospectoscope that Bo was behind the curve on lots of offensive and defensive developments (playing 5 DL for a long time,dabbling with the wishbone when it was clear the wishbone was being "solved", not passing more until he had a once in a generation talent in Anthony Carter, these all contributed to his poor bowl record) but when it came to rousing the team to play for him, for one play, one game or even a whole season he was 11 out of 10 in that rating.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^
"now he has a full spread attack"
A full spread attack that never uses tempo, doesn't really try to get big plays, continually runs up the middle into stacked boxes, and takes 5 minutes to run a two minute drill? That is not what any other full spread attack looks like.
November 6th, 2020 at 9:22 PM ^
Not to mention -- one that only spreads the field, uses speed, and tests the edges, you know, when the head coach feels like it.
November 6th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
Fire him. Next question
November 6th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
Whoever Harbaugh's Apollo Creed is, he needs to get with him and get his 'eye of the tiger' back.
mildly /s
November 6th, 2020 at 1:07 PM ^
Got that right.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
Great post and discussion. It all boils down to is does Michigan cheat or not? There were some comments on this web site that we do just that. I will not judge them. I stated to them that do not know the entire Michigan fan base (easier said than done on cheating).
First; let's see how this weird season plays out. Will this FB team improve or not?
Second; Jim will have his choice whether to stay or go, per big donors et-al.
I want to see him succeed, but a lot depends on how this season plays out.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^
This is an excuse post. Cheat, cheat, cheat. You sound like Trump
November 6th, 2020 at 1:10 PM ^
Oh dear, you must be new here.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
This may be all we can expect from Harbaugh at this point. The problem is he doesn't have a real signature win of any kind to hang his hat on. Not one stand alone division title, Big 10 championship or playoff appearance or even defeating OSU once. I can't see anybody being happy moving forward with him unless he does one of those things pretty soon. I think a lot of people would take a chance on a coaching change even if the outcome might be worse.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:32 PM ^
No they won't. We already went through Hoke and RR...
November 6th, 2020 at 4:20 PM ^
I would recommend a change, but I would also caution the expectations of doing so. I do think he's had some signature wins. I'd point to 2015 Citrus Bowl, 2016 Wisconsin, 2016 PSU (B1G champ), 2018 Wisconsin, and 2019 ND were quality wins against quality opponents. He just hasn't had enough of them or been able to capitalize on the moment of them and keep progressing. After every win was a subsequent let down.
November 6th, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^
Michigan will do nothing and should do nothing about Harbaugh. He has won a ton of games at UM except against Ohio State and how many people across the nation have beat the Bucks in a very long time? Not many is that answer. Michigan fans need to accept the fact that Michigan is a 7-4 8-3. 9-3 and sometimes 10/11 win team in college football. It is an average football program and will remain a such.
November 6th, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^
Just Clemson...and PSU...and Purdue...and Iowa :) In all seriousness, most of those are only once in a while thing. Clemson is the only one to do it twice and we all know they are just as much of a juggernaut as OSU and Bama.
November 6th, 2020 at 4:28 PM ^
MICHIGAN was not developed nor inspired to be the winningest college football team in history by being "average".
And, the HC is NOT being paid an "average" coaching salary.
If MICHIGAN is now a "participant trophy" project then you, in fact, just may be correct and those that have supported the team every game for 50, 40, 30, or 20 years should show themselves out of the fan base..............
AVERAGE is not an option...................
November 6th, 2020 at 4:46 PM ^
I think many fans, myself included as a 41 year old who grew up in the 90s, are finding it hard to remain invested in football the way they have in the past because our expectations were rooted in a system where OSU was not as good as they are today, where there wasn't a conference alignment that prevents UM from winning a championship without beating OSU, and a bowl system that favored a tradition rich program that didn't have to win 14 games to win a NC. Unfortunately, the current landscape of CFB has changed whereas our expectations and our program have mostly remained the same.
November 6th, 2020 at 7:14 PM ^
Try being a fan pushing 60 who literally grew up with Bo. One of my first sports memories is the 1969 OSU game. I graduated from Michigan the same year Harbaugh did. I thought he was the answer but for whatever reason it's not happening. I was okay until last week's game. I say let his contract run out and reevaluate then.
November 6th, 2020 at 10:01 PM ^
Try being a fan pushing 60 who literally grew up with Bo. One of my first sports memories is the 1969 OSU game.
If you grew up with Bo in the 60s and 70s, UM was about .500 with OSU. I grew up in the 90's where UM won more like 85% of the time :/
I graduated from Michigan the same year Harbaugh did. I thought he was the answer but for whatever reason it's not happening
I think we all did. JH was so successful at Stanford and the 49ers, no one would have seen this coming. I'd be curious if you looked back at both of those stops with a closer eye if you could see some of the management problems, clock management, a penchant for losing big games, the team looking unprepared too often, etc.
I was okay until last week's game.
I think a lot of us were.