Vikings' first round draft grades
I started doing a round up and found that the SI Vikings' site had most of them. Grades are all over the place. I think JJ ended up in a good situation and will surprise people with the Vikings.
Nick Baumgardner, The Athletic: A
He may need to learn behind Sam Darnold for a minute, but I love his long-term fit with coach Kevin O’Connell and think he could be more ready than some believe.
Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: A
Kudos, Minnesota Vikings. They didn't bite on all the rumor-mongering about McCarthy going much higher in the draft. Instead of moving their extra first-round pick to trade up into the top five, the Vikings flipped fourth- and fifth-round picks to move up one spot, while getting a sixth-rounder back.
Joseph Acosta, SB Nation: A-
The Vikings didn’t have to move heaven and Earth to trade up, and eventually got the guy that would fit their offense. I think McCarthy is a ways away from being a starter, but he doesn’t have to start right away with Sam Darnold playing. McCarthy is a confident passer off play action and a good enough athlete to make the O’Connell offense work in the long term. Good fit for Minnesota and McCarthy.
A- (includes Dallas Turner)
Analysis: The Vikings moved up one spot to grab McCarthy, presumably to box out Denver and Las Vegas. He did not throw 40 times per game in Michigan's run-heavy offense, but he has plenty of arm, excellent mobility and accuracy throwing to either side of the field. He can surprise with his open-field speed, and his ability to win games at the high school and collegiate level carries weight with NFL teams. While not a physical specimen, he is similarly built to C.J. Stroud and other quarterbacks recently drafted with top-10 picks. The Vikings made a pre-draft trade with the Texans to get a second first-round selection (23rd overall) and then moved up from that spot to nab Turner. His 4.46 40 turned heads at the combine, but he still fell, thanks to the rush for quarterbacks and likely also because of his average size for the position (6-2 3/4-inch, 247 pounds). He uses that low center of gravity and 34 3/8-inch arms to separate from blockers playing the run and long-arm them into the quarterback in pass-rush mode. He's a very good value at 17, even though today's trade ate away at the team's mid-round capital, both this year and next. This draft is lean at edge rusher, and the Vikings decided to take a risk.
Rang: A dominant defense and run-heavy offense provided McCarthy limited opportunities to pad his stats, but when he was called upon to make important throws, he showed zip, accuracy, mobility and mettle. He does not possess the howitzer of some of the other quarterbacks of this class. However, leadership and charisma matter at quarterback, and McCarthy has perhaps the best combination of that in this year's class. Few would recognize that more than a former quarterback — like Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell.
Grade: B+
The Vikings' patience pays off, as they make a much smaller (and far cheaper) move up the board to land their new franchise quarterback. McCarthy is largely unproven as a passer after playing in Michigan's run-heavy offense, but he's got tons of potential, and his skill set is a perfect fit for Kevin O'Connell's offense. This looks much better than moving up into the top five for the same player.
GRADE: B+
Charles McDonald, Yahoo! Sports: B+
Getting the quarterback without having to move up too far in the draft is a solid result for the Vikings. It may not be the quarterback they originally wanted, but it's still a solid prospect to build around and he's walking into a great situation.
Grade: B-
Minnesota didn't have to give up a bounty to secure its quarterback. That's a significant victory given the tough spot this franchise is in as it tries to reset while simultaneously competing. Still, it's fair to feel underwhelmed with McCarthy as the successor to Kirk Cousins. Not only is the signal-caller somewhat of a mystery box after his time at Michigan, he's also not the drastic stylistic shift from Cousins that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah seemed intrigued by and that the team could have gotten from, say, Drake Maye. The setup for McCarthy is quite promising, though, as Kevin O'Connell can help him play efficiently early in his career with tons of play action and intermediate throws. And it doesn't hurt to have Justin Jefferson to bail him out.
Matt Verderame, SI.com: B-
During his time in Ann Arbor, McCarthy never threw for 3,000 yards in either one of his starting campaigns. The question is how much he can develop at the pro level.
Grade: B-
Minnesota didn't have to give up a bounty to secure its quarterback. That's a significant victory given the tough spot this franchise is in as it tries to reset while simultaneously competing. Still, it's fair to feel underwhelmed with McCarthy as the successor to Kirk Cousins. Not only is the signal-caller somewhat of a mystery box after his time at Michigan, he's also not the drastic stylistic shift from Cousins that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah seemed intrigued by and that the team could have gotten from, say, Drake Maye. The setup for McCarthy is quite promising, though, as Kevin O'Connell can help him play efficiently early in his career with tons of play action and intermediate throws. And it doesn't hurt to have Justin Jefferson to bail him out.
While we understand the Vikings needed a quarterback and felt like they had to trade up get them, we don’t have J.J. McCarthy graded high enough to warrant this type of a move and pick.
Grade: C
Grade: C+
They had to fill the quarterback spot, so it makes sense to take McCarthy. I don't love him as much as others do, but it will be interesting to see how Kevin O'Connell and company will make it work.
Touchdown Wire (USA Today)
Minnesota Vikings select Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick. Grade: D
J.J. McCarthy is a good quarterback. If you trade up into the top 10 of a draft to get a good quarterback, as opposed to a field-tilting quarterback, you had better hope everything goes well around him. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has the playbook and the weapons to make the most of McCarthy, but the low ceiling shows up all over his tape. This seems like a misunderstanding of his NFL potential, and that’s why the grade is so low.
The analysts always seem to over-value physical attributes and under-value intangibles such as the ability to read defenses, sense the pocket pressure, anticipate the movement of players on the field, leadership qualities, and overall depth of knowledge of the game. McCarthy possesses all those things.
I'm old enough to remember Joe Montana being dismissed. And of course Tom Brady is the all-time poster child of this.
The analysts always seem to over-value physical attributes and under-value intangibles
This has to be it. And I feel like you're underselling some of the qualities you listed by calling them intangibles. Leadership is an intangible, but the ability to read defenses and process quickly is a mental attribute, and the mental side of the game is just as important (if not more important) than the physical for most positions.
I've never understood what the knocks on JJ actually are. He seems to have every quality you could want in a QB in spades, and in the rare instances when someone is specific more often than not they seem to be flat out wrong (e.g. JJ not having a strong arm--that's news to me, it always seemed like he has a flat out cannon). And though I haven't followed the other QBs as closely, I similarly don't get the love for these other QBs above him (the Maye love in particular baffles me).
I can all but guarantee that at least one of the top three QBs will be a bust, and I'd probably bet money that at least two will...
Whenever anyone talks about the guy's combine numbers first, you know it's a bad pick.
If you're betting based on historical success rates - at least 3, and more likely 4-5 of the 6 will be busts.
Yes look at the 21 draft. Lawrence was "generational" - best QB since Luck but got stuck with Urbz. After that every other QB drafted in the FIRST round has been booted by his team in 3 years!!
- Wilson (2)
- Lance (3) <---awful pick anyhow
- Fields (11)
- Jones (15)
I've never understood what the knocks on JJ actually are.
Lack of big numbers. The talking heads love numbers - 40, bench, passing yards, TDs, etc.
Literally one of the low grades was based on the fact he didn't throw for 3000 yards in a season.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:21 AM ^
When I used the word "intangibles" in the post above, I was looking for a word that captured the idea of "not easy to measure using numbers." Some things can't be measured using a scale, stopwatch, or tape measure. And if a number can't easily be captured, then it's harder to build a spreadsheet. And people love to put things in spreadsheets.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:36 AM ^
The writer who based his grade on JJ having no 3000 yard passing seasons is obviously in the wrong job.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:50 AM ^
That guy starz.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:31 AM ^
Roughly 20% of quarterbacks taken in the first round become a franchise quarterback, so that would be a good bet. Most end up as journeyman backups/bridge QBs or are out of the league within 5 years.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:41 AM ^
JJ McCarthy threw 61 mph in the Combine velocity test.
He was second behind Joe "Over Them Mountains" Milton, who threw 62 mph.
You are not imagining things about JJ's arm. It is stronger than Williams' Maye's, Daniels' and Penix's. Draft pundits often just make things up to fit a narrative.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:13 AM ^
I didn't know this, and while surprised.... I love this stat! He seems to play with touch, and to know he has that good of a arm is extremely impressive!
April 26th, 2024 at 12:18 PM ^
His only knock is playing for a run heavy team. It seems like all the rage these days is needing to find QBs who are in a Lincoln Riley-esque offense where the QB is the sole focus, needing to throw 40-50x / game.
Which is fine, if that's what you want. But that's not the only avenue of finding a winning QB.
It's fair to ask "can he be trusted to carry the team when called upon," but at the same time, what these folks should also be asking themselves is "We do like what he has shown us so far, so how much more of that do we think we can squeeze out of him?" Instead of a limitation, you can look at it as an opportunity for untapped potential.
It's a bit like recruiting stars... while it's not necessarily correct for a given player, it's generally correct in the aggregate.
Every QB not picked #1 has a greater than 50% chance of failing.
The number is slightly over 50% for the 1st round as a whole.
The number is 90%+ failures in the 6th round.
April 26th, 2024 at 12:29 PM ^
How is failing defined? For example, are we considering Chad Henne a success or failure?
The analyses I've seen used:
2,000+ pass attempts (equates to 3-5 years as a starter)
10,000+ yards passing (easily accomplished in 3-4 years as a starter)
100+ touchdown passes (mediocre starters should reach in 4-5 seasons as a starter)
Boy good question
Henne was a 2nd rounder. He started his age 24, 25, and 28 seasons. Career backup from there - 7 seasons, played 17 games total in those 7 years.
His bank account is a winner that's for sure.
Reminds me a bit of rich man's Jim Sorgi who backed up Manning in Indy for 6 years - greatest job in the world, get paid and do nothing while traveling the US and having fun. Guy threw like 150 passes in his career.
the goofy part is that other than bulk JJ has ridiculous physical attributes! He's fast AND quick, he's got a rocket arm and can zip it on the move. The "he can surprise in the open field" cracks me up, it's another version of "white guy has deceptive speed" when the guy is just actually fast, we all saw him run down our own running backs from behind just to throw a block. Another with "Doesn't have the howitzer" when other analysts in the run-up to the draft say he's got a hell of a fastball but throws it too much (which I actually agree with, feathering balls in when called for is something he needs work on).
He's in the perfect spot. Right coach, real good skill position talent including one of the best receivers in the league, team that's ready to let him sit for at least part of the season if not the whole thing to acclimate. Probably the best situation of any of the 6 QBs drafted - the Bears have the skill position talent but I'd take the Vikings offensive coaching over the Bears all day (and I am a Bears fan).
April 26th, 2024 at 10:33 AM ^
If we flip the script--look at it from JJ's POV--we see that this is the fit he perceived as best for him. Success is never assured, but that's probably what we should really care about. He's going to be comfortable there, can see himself fitting with personnel and playbook, will not have to excel instantly; all good.
The CBS guys, for whatever reasons, were talking him down from the start. May he prove their asses wrong.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:43 AM ^
I'll tell you why: CBS just can't quit the SEC.
Pundits and Twitter rubes always overvalue raw stats. What makes that particularly galling in the McCarthy commentary is that they don't understand how Jim Harbaugh manages a football game.
Anybody that has seen McCarthy play the past 3 years knows he can make all the throws necessary in order to succeed in the NFL. You want fancy stats? Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson will be happy to help. The Vikings are set up icely for success.
Anything less than an A is ridiculous.
The all so called experts said the same thing about the last Lions draft class. Who cares, their all idiots anyways besides Gus and Joe Klatt.
April 26th, 2024 at 12:30 PM ^
their all idiots anyways
Hehe.
The only way to really see how accurate the draft class analysis is, is to go back several years later and see how many players are actually having any impact on the team. There is is a large number of Can't Miss Mel Kiper players who stick in the league for only a few years.
If these guys really knew how to evaluate players, they would be working for an NFL team and making a lot more money. QB in particular seems to be the hardest position accurately to predict success in the league, even for the scouts and player personnel guys who do it full time.
Every year, the draft proves that being employed by an NFL team doesn’t mean someone knows how to evaluate players.
Yeah, this is a very bad argument and a fallacy (appeal to authority). There's many reasons people are employed in certain positions and merit is not always (and some might argue rarely) the reason.
See: the Peter principle for an abstract example and the Matt Millen era for a tangible one.
Speaking of the Peter Principal, I have a Pete Prisco Principle (he's the bright CBS fellow who gave it a C+): if takes one side, then the other side is the place to be. He was wrong about us all through last season.
I think intentionally taking the other side is now known as the Clickbait Corollary.
What's interesting about him is he's not a ccntentious hot-takey loudmouth--he's just wrong a lot.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:48 AM ^
This is 100% cherry-picked, but:
10. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
Grade: A
They make the smart move to go up and get the guy who might be the most NFL-ready passer.
He correctly called Josh Allen (A+) and gets a pass for Sam Darnold (C).
April 26th, 2024 at 10:17 AM ^
who are you to disagree with The Oracle
April 26th, 2024 at 11:14 AM ^
Sometimes, the picks aren't made by the GM. The ownership input sometimes take precedence over the GM like Johnny Football to the Browns.
They all know how to ‘bro out’ in the draft room after the pick though. Lots of bro hugs, daps, pounds and high fives.
The only exception is Jerry Jones who just sits in the middle of the table and talks on the phone.
If these guys really knew how to evaluate players, they would be working for an NFL team and making a lot more money.
Underrated comment
April 26th, 2024 at 10:49 AM ^
Who in the hell is Mel Kiper anyway? He’s never ever put on a jock strap, he’s never been a coach, or administrator and all of a sudden he’s an expert. Kiper has no more credentials than my neighbor, who is a postman that doesn’t have season tickets to the NFL.
Are you being serious? He’s been covering the NFL Draft full-time for the last 46 years. Do you really think your neighbor the postman has the same working knowledge? If you’re kidding, then please disregard.
Mock drafts and draft grades, like recruiting, are fun to talk about, but in the end it’s all just noise. The truth is told on the field. McCarthy ended up in a great spot for a rookie QB. it’s all up to him now.
I live in the Twin Cities and my kids are already asking for McCarthy #9 Vikings jerseys. That’s gonna be a hot item. JJ to JJettas is going to be a kickass combo!
I mean JJ has the best of all worlds.
- He's a top 10 pick.
- He's on a team with a good line and an awesome WR.
- There is a journeyman QB ahead of him so he doesn't have to start right away, but he can beat him out for the position.
- There were 4 QBs taken ahead of him and the press disrespected the pick so he gets to play with a chip on his shoulder.
Edit: There were 4 QBs taken ahead of JJ. He was the fifth.
Tom Brady was the seventh QB off the board, so JJ's got him beat.
There were 4 QBs taken ahead of JJ. Bo Nix was 2 picks after. He doesn't seem like the "chip on the shoulder" type, but what do I know.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:05 AM ^
That wouldn't be very zen would it? You are correct. He was the fifth QB taken after 4 others.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:37 AM ^
He came to Michigan in part because OSU lied to him about not signing a QB early in the cycle.
:- )
The USA Today and MSN writeups are exactly the same.
A Bears' fan I work with asked: "Would you rather have the Lions' receiving corp or the Bears' receiving corp?" I told him it was the wrong question. Would you rather have the Michigan cohesion or the OSU mercenaries? JJ McCarthy is a winner who raises the level of everyone who plays with him.
I listened to some clown on Jason McIntyre's podcast yesterday that had Spencer Rattler as his top rated qb and Caleb Williams as a guaranteed bust.
I could get behind half of that...