November 2nd, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
Well the good news is OSU’s strengths fit well with MSU’s weaknesses. Good run defense and good pass offense. Also no way MSU get officiating benefits in Columbus.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:58 PM ^
Ya I think OSU will give up some big plus to Nailor/Reed. But Cade just torched MSU. Would have been 400+ if Corum didn’t drop that pass.
Stroud and all their WR’s should absolutely go off, and if MSU plays safeties deep Henderson should dominate
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:14 PM ^
Sort of like MSU "picking their poison."
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:48 PM ^
MSU will get some points. Their best opportunity is a 2015 monsoon game again. Barring that type of game I think they will struggle. Wilson and Olave will torch that secondary. Wouldn’t be surprised if Stroud gets 500+ on them.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^
I think MSU’s best case scenario is “win all the others and avoid getting BADLY creamed by OSU.” That team looks poised to murk us. Tbh so would Bama or Georgia. I’d almost rather fall out of the CFP and have a nice Rose Bowl instead??
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:55 PM ^
Just hope that on Nov 20, MSU will lose a football game. We are not rooting for OSU to win, we are rooting for MSU to lose.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:55 PM ^
M needs MSU to lose twice. Otherwise tOSU wins the three way tie breaker.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
Honestly I’m fine with this. If we end the season with a victory over OSU and a Rose Bowl win, I won’t give two shits about missing the opportunity to get blown out by Georgia in the CFP.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:19 PM ^
at the moment they do
Minny + Purdue vs Wisc + NW
whichever teams have the best W-L in the conference is what matters
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:46 PM ^
The most interesting scenario for me would be if somehow we do end up in the 3-way tie situation and OSU wins the tie-breaker, then goes to the Big CG and wins. They end 11-2. UM ends 11-1. The CFP committee is not obligated to take the conference champion. Do they take an OSU team with a head to head loss against UM because they are conference champs? Kind of an interesting scenario.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:27 PM ^
I hope Michigan can get to 11-1.
But there is still the NY6 Bowl Games, which itself is quite a high prize.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:56 PM ^
These first rankings certainly show that the committee views good wins and head to head over bad losses but let’s see if this is consistent at the end of the season if/when Oregon wins out and they make it in over OSU (assuming OSU wins out).
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
The complete deference to Bama is (still) just astounding. How are they any different from OSU? Or ND for that matter.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:55 PM ^
ND has three 3-point wins over teams outside the top 50. Every objective system I've looked at says Alabama's significantly better than ND. Sagarin has Bama 2 and ND 9, FEI has Bama 2 and ND 10, Massey has Bama 2 and ND 17, etc. On a neutral field Sagarin would favor Bama over ND by 11 1/2, Massey by 13 1/2.
Bama vs. OSU is a one-point spread, you're right that there's not much there.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
Some of those advanced ratings use recruiting rankings, which I don't think should be any part of the playoff committee's criteria
Not defending ND's resume, as I think it's underwhelming at best
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:21 AM ^
I don't have a problem with Alabama being #2. I don't think the CFP showed favoritism. Alabama belongs there.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:21 PM ^
Michigan beating Western so badly, then Western beating Pitt was probably one factor that went in to Michigan being so high up.
Also the winning percentage of all opponents has helped.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:25 PM ^
MSU at #3. OSU at #5. Let's see what our boys are made of. Win November, and go to CFP
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:37 PM ^
Not if MSU beats OSU in a few weeks
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:54 PM ^
non-zero but near-zero chance of that
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:10 PM ^
Not as bad as you think, I see it quite good. If MSU beats OSU, Likely moves MSU up to 1A-2 with winning out and winning at OSU. Meaning not passing GA, but committee looks at GA/MSU then a gap. That leaves 2 spots. GA beats Bama, don’t see them in w/ 2 losses. Cincy? Oregon?...that win over OSU not as good when MSU and UM just beat them? Oklahoma? I mean not much has to go right to get into top 4 regardless of anyone else. The only way they are out, GA loses to Bama in rematch, Oklahoma wins out. That could make it MSU (yes they as #1 seed lol) Oklahoma, GA, and Bama. We are outside looking in at 5. Otherwise, don’t see any other way. 11-1 passes Cincy, OR, and OSU. Michigan gets to 11-1, odds are 75% I say they get into CFP. This scenario their only loss is on road to the #1 team that they lead for all but 5 minutes. Trust me. 11-1 Michigan gets into the CFP.
Clearly any loss and it’s over.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:30 AM ^
You’re overthinking this. Michigan can make it multiple ways even if they don’t win the Big Ten. Say either Oregon loses or Cinci loses, and Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG comfortably. That puts Georgia at 1, MSU at 2, Oregon/Cincinnati 3, and Michigan 4. Would Oklahoma pass us? Possibly, but then there’s the possibility of Michigan passing Oregon or Cincinnati. Could easily get Georgia vs. Michigan and MSU vs. Oklahoma/Oregon/Cinci.
Of course, this is all dependent on beating OSU. lololol
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:18 AM ^
Oklahoma plays Baylor, Iowa State, OK State and the CCG. They win out they're most likely in.
Cinnci's only decent remaining competition is SMU. I can't see them getting in.
Oregon plays no one. If OSU wins out, I think OSU will get in. Any one loss Big Ten team will get in above Oregon.
If Georgia beats Bama I doubt Bama gets in. The other way around. They both do.
It could conceivably be 2 SEC and 2 Big Ten East Teams.
I think it's going to be hard to justify Oregon getting in with only one good win in the second game of the season.
There are a lot of permutations.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:27 PM ^
Should be #3. I'm still not over that loss
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:35 PM ^
If we won, we probably would’ve been number #2. I’m guessing MSU is #3 because the stats were pretty lopsided in our favor. That, and SEC JUST MEANS MORE.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:45 PM ^
Yep. Would have been sitting @ 2 and not just my opinion it was prognosticated from most places.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:54 PM ^
It apparently truly does mean more.
Top undefeated team: SEC
Top one loss team: SEC
Top two loss team: SEC
Top three loss team: SEC
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
If we were number 3 and march into Nov. 27 undefeated, OSU puts a huge target on our backs. Now, OSU has to prep HARD for MSU *and* US. If OSU narrowly beats MSU on Nov. 20 in an emotional game, maybe we can take them. Being Number 7 still means everything can work out for us. CFB is an emotional sport. I much prefer going into the OSU game being the team with nothing to lose (aka 2017). The Paul Bunyan trophy will not be ours for at least 350 more days. We cannot change that. I support these players and think a perfect game from them can beat the Buckeyes. Yes, that makes me a homer. This No. 7 ranking is great. Lots of CFB left, friends. Go blue.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^
Ya I agree. As bad as Saturday was, the emergence of Andrel Anthony and a real downfield passing attack gives me some hope we can attack OSU. I haven’t felt that way in a long time, even with Nico and DPJ.
Yes it’s being a homer. But it’s different than how I felt previously, which was that we were hopelessly behind in skill position talent
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:27 PM ^
Damn, I wish MSU was #2 so we know that Purdue would definitely beat them on Saturday.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:29 PM ^
They destroyed Iowa and beat Nebraska without needing a punt return gift TD. I like their chances.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:38 PM ^
Purdue has a physical enough defense to stop Walker lll. But if they don't contain him, they will lose.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:28 PM ^
Sweet! Win out and I think were in business
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^
The interesting thing is that it's possible Michigan could win out and NOT win the division and still make it. Might even be likely. They'd probably jump Cinci with a win over OSU. Oregon will lose again. As long as OU doesn't win out they probably wouldn't jump Michigan.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^
It is a very strange scenario to think about, but I think I'd be okay missing out on a Big Ten title if we were able to get into the playoff.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:51 PM ^
Why will Oregon lose again? They're the cream of their league and will be favored in every remaining game (though Utah will be a challenge).
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
….because Orygun is not a very good team.
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:16 PM ^
11-1 Michigan is passing 11-1 Oregon. Both beat OSU. Just don’t see how that doesn’t happen. Big Ten over Pac 12.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:19 PM ^
Oregon almost lost to Cal. At home.
November 3rd, 2021 at 2:11 AM ^
Oregon would be 12-1 and a major conference champ if they don't lose again. With a win AT OSU. They'd finish ahead of 11-1 Michigan.
But Oregon could finish 2 or 3 and Michigan would still make it. I think I meant that OU will lose once (to Baylor or ISU or OK St). Michigan would just need one of them to lose.
November 3rd, 2021 at 6:11 AM ^
Any team that loses to Stanford, struggles to beat Cal on the last play (at home) and musters 1 game as it’s “body of evidence” absolutely lacks legitimacy.
Any committee which selects such a team as playoff worthy is a sham.
2021 Oregon Ducks aka one hit wonders.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:59 PM ^
Last week when someone shared that playoff predictor, I put in one loss to MSU and no championship game as one of the scenarios. I believe it spit out 88% chance of playoff. So if they win out and MSU wins the big ten or doesn’t, there is still a pretty good chance.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:41 PM ^
Dream scenario is having a rematch vs MSU in the playoff.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:28 PM ^
Win out and it'll be hard for the committee to keep us out.
Of course the winning out part is hard and on the unlikely side, but the season continues. Go Blue.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:29 PM ^
CFP committee has a lot of respect for the B1G and Michigan. Pretty amazing that they are ahead of undefeated Oklahoma. I think Mich still controls its own destiny. If they win out, I'm guessing MSU will lose twice and open the door for Mich to go to the B1G title game and make the playoff if they win. It'd take a miracle to beat OSU, but at some point the losing streak against them has to end... who knows, anything can happen!
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:39 PM ^
Oklahoma has some huge games ahead that could push them ahead of us. If they beat Baylor I think they go ahead of us. Who knows. Does the committee watch these games? Would they look at whether Clifford is healthy when we play PSU?
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:24 PM ^
All of Oklahoma's upcoming opponents added together do not equal OSU. The committee's placement of OU is very telling here. The Little 12 is weak and they are not jumping anyone who is ahead of them-who wins out.
November 2nd, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^
It might as well be this year to end the streak! Go Blue!