UM inside sources say Washington and Ark State definitely off the schedule, remainder will be regional
Very interesting article by Michael Spath over at SI. He's evidently been in touch with some inside sources at UM. It sounds like while football is expected to happen at UM, the schedule will not proceed as currently planned, and there are potentially significant changes across the Big Ten.
The whole article is worth the read, as he got input from both the athletic and faculty perspectives, but here's his summary of his key takeaways:
I expect Michigan to play football this fall.
• I expect that U-M will play fewer than the 12 games on its schedule and that the trip to Washington and the Arkansas State game will be either canceled outright or replaced by Mid-American Conference opponents.
• I expect Michigan to play at least one home-and-home and potentially two or more with other Big Ten teams, most likely Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State. I expect Notre Dame to be a very real possibility as a fill-in game because of the location and access via buses.
• I expect that if Michigan holds in-person classes student-athletes will be required to attend them just like normal students, however, I do believe that there will be specific student-athlete dorms on campus, with all the fall sports teams (including upperclassmen) to live in the dorms.
• I expect at least one Big Ten program not to play football this fall and as many as four or five. I think there is a chance for a four-team Big Ten championship bout to be played in December with the teams staying put in one city/hotel all two weeks.
• I expect the other fall sports, field hockey, golf, soccer and cross country to play but have entirely regional schedules with no flights whatsoever. I'm not sure about volleyball.
• I don't expect fans to be in attendance at any sporting event that is not football.
Note: I am posting this from mobile and hoping the formatting isn't awful. If it is, I apologise in advance.
I was also trying to think of who those 3-4 teams are. On one hand, I first thought that the teams most likely to not play would be the teams with worst prospects for success (Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland, Illinois), but then I considered that those are probably programs with the most to lose. Without a football season, would they reach a point where they couldn't afford to field a team in future years?
My second thought was the programs that could most easily recover from a missed season. But then that points to Michigan, OSU, PSU, and maybe Nebraska/Wisconsin/Iowa, and those are the foundational teams in the conference. Without them, there is no big ten.
My guess is it's probably more related to geography. I don't know for sure (not looking at a map), but I'm guessing that it would be the teams who would have the hardest time reaching other schools by bus: Nebraska (aside from Iowa, are they driving distance to anyone?), PSU (aside from maybe Rutgers and Maryland, anyone else they could drive to?), Minnesota, Rutgers.
I don't want Fields to have Covid the week before they play us, because you know that OSU will let him play either way.
Or they'll put in his backup who will have the game of his.
This will get interesting.
Football Gods to Michigan: "Okay, fine. We will anoint you B1G Champions this year."
Rest of the world: "*"
Because of course.
I may give up if they decide to let OSU blow them out twice.
I don't want them to play football this year. But, if they do play football this year I'd love to see a season where we play OSU and MSU twice, that sounds like a blast to me.
Get a MAC opponent. To hell with ND!
Agreed, fuck ND. Let them hold this L for awhile.
Or play the season in the Spring after the hopeful vaccine. Keep the full schedule. NFL can have the draft in June. NFL may stomp their feet but really, except for the 2 day rookie mini camp they don't get together til late July anyway.
I agree with you ... playing in the spring sounds like a better idea than this one.
If we're only going to be playing schools within bus distance - what the heck are MD & Rutgers going to do? I know many people here don't really respect them anyway, but they are part of the conference - each of them only have 3 conference schools within an 8-hour bus ride!
Then, how about WVU in the Big XII? I guess they play nobody?
Honestly, at that point - just throw out all the conferences and just ad-hoc it. I suppose we could piece together things like this:
(1) MI/OH conference: the 5 MI schools, OSU, Cincy, the 6 OH-based MAC schools.
(2) PA/WV/MD/NJ conference: Pitt, PSU, Temple, WVU, Maryland, Rutgers. I suppose that given not enough schools, this will be a double round-robin.
(3) IN/IL/WI conference: ND, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Ball State, NW, NIU, Wisconsin. They may be playing some home-and-homes too?
But is that what we really want? I'm a hard NO on that. Just hope for spring at that point.
MD can play WVU four times.
That series sounds exciting! It's like a Pinstripe Bowl matchup, except 4 times in a year instead of once.
Play in spring is good with me. A lot of seniors/draftable juniors would sit out, and that's fine. Fields would sit out and that's great.
People should let their pussy mentality re: the osu game get Covid. So sick of seeing "fans" make jokes at the expense of the team they're allegedly fans of.
The last 18 years has been painful.
I only laugh so I don't cry
Lehhhhh
With Covid exploding, this situation would seem about as fluid as it gets.
Thanks very much for posting this summary. I read the SI article very shortly after it was posted, and thought it was one of the more relevant and informative articles written on the challenges faced this Fall by universities - this one focused on college football. One of the other points that Spath made in the article is the AD and University Leadership decision making process, and balancing waiting until late as possible to provide definitive direction, yet providing leadership and direction as early as possible, with the real likelihood that those decisions will be rather unpopular from a college football fan perspective. Then, following those decisions, having to implement scenario plans because the situation is so dynamic.
Conference games only. Book it.
This is all really interesting, but if even half of these come true then I don't really see the value in having a football season. I mean, you'll have multiple teams in this conference (and I assume others) skip the season, there will be some quasi-tournament for the Big Ten title to be held...somewhere, and lots of last-minute changes to schedules based on the ease of transportation (which buses would be better than flying is beyond me, since both entail large metal tubes of recirculated air and at least planes get you there faster).
The bus one honestly makes no sense to me --- airplanes are, per the science, a rather safe COVID environment! They aren't bullet-proof, but the HEPA filters on modern planes are highly efficient and air gets re-cycled every 3 minutes on the average flight.
I think its says something that we are 4+ months into this crisis, and there are zero stories about outbreaks on commercial flights. Which have been flying this entire time, with passenger numbers continuing to increase. American and United have had load factors up to 75% in June, so the planes aren't overly empty either.
If people on planes wear masks then I agree they're probably better given the better filtering (assuming that's available on all flights). I agree about there not being a major outbreak but I also think until very recently the people flying were more likely "having" to fly for some reason and may be more receptive to accepting safety measures. It'll be interesting when people who may travel more recreationally gain in numbers; past experience shows that those people have a great likelihood of resisting mask wearing and the like.
I follow the aviation industry pretty closely --- even participate in a message board on such (yes, one exists!).
But the insiders there, people who see company level data, are saying most of the people flying these days are leisure flyers. NOT the "have to fly" sort.
Flight attendants there also say that mask compliance rates are fairly strong, although not 100%. There's not much you can necessarily do if a passenger decides to take his mask off at 30K feet: the plane is in the air at that point.
That fits with my anecdotal experience (a few flights since March). Nearly 100% mask compliance boarding the plane, down to about 85%-90% once the plane gets airborne.
That's good to hear re: mask usage. Anecdotally the only people I knew who flew were non-leisure travelers (some were going to see family, but it wasn't necessarily "leisure" travel in terms of a trip), but obviously that isn't dispositive.
At this point it seems weird that the form of travel would affect anyone's concerns about away games, assuming you have a charter plane.
Perhaps the real concern is the cost factor then. If these games are played in mostly empty stadiums and revenues are down considerably then the ADs might be looking at buses as a much more financially responsible mode of transportation compared to chartered flights.
Excellent post. Thanks OP.
Poor decision if true. The only real benefit the reduction in games has is optics in the form of "Look everyone! We're taking Covid seriously!!11!!!111" to the rest of the country. It's not going to matter if you play 100 miles from Ann Arbor of 2,000 miles from Ann Arbor. The difference is negligable. The right decision is play all the games (that the players and staff are willing to play) or cancel the season.
I asked the same question to a friend in the AD, as I was cynical about this shortened season as well.
From what I was told, the reduction is not because they want to intentionally shorten the season, it's because everything is in such flux around which teams will be available - and they have no idea what the pool of teams to schedule from actually is right now.
He even said we could see a scenario, specifically where we have significantly decreased attendance allowed, where there are open blocks on the schedule and games get filled in 2 or 3 weeks before the game - hence looking for games closer to home, so transportation and getting essential staff, families, administration to the games is not overly complex.
A bunch of the "smaller" programs / MAC, Sunbelt, Conference USA, Mountain West and FCS schools that don't pull in big time revenues are still on the fence about even playing, which is making scheduling really difficult right now - hence the reality where teams may play each other multiple times in the season to fill up the schedule.
Regarding these "smaller" programs, the revenues they have historically been paid to be a "cupcake" on the schedule may not actually justify their traveling to games because of all the added Covid precaution costs. Some are even asking the larger programs to pay more to cover these costs.
This is what I was told 2 weeks ago before we saw the latest spike in the virus, so I'm guessing more of these "smaller" programs may be opting out of the season if things don't get better soon.
Agree the fear of flying thing makes no sense. As noted it Is a charter so they will not be with people outside the team. The idea that a bus (which has a poor to non existent ventilation and filtration system) is safer than a plane (which has a very good air filtration system) is just not correct. This tells me that the sources are full of it or that the athletic departments are getting bad advice.
Spath is by all accounts a nice guy but he seems to have...not the best sources on a lot of things. I remember him having some insane stories during the season as well.
I don't know if they are basing the decision on just bus vs airplane safety. They could be thinking that if a team is flying, particularly cross country, it will require a hotel stay which would put them in contact with other people. A bus ride to and from ND, OSU, any directional Michigan school, on the day of the game, while not ideal, is definitely doable.
But you could fly to Seattle and fly back the same day just as easily as you could bus to Columbus and drive back after the game. It's the same.
It’s funny to see there are still people who think there will be a substantial football season.
Substantial?
Rumor has it the team that may cancel its big 10 season is the University of Illinois. Teams within a bus ride of Ann Arbor would be MSU, Purdue, NU, IU and OSU. I think PSU will be too far east. So, I can see 4 sub divisions: East-west division. Michigan, MSU, IU and OSU. East-east division: PSU, Rutgers, Maryland . West-west: NE, IA, WI and MN. West-east: NU, Purdue, (ILLINI?)
What sucks is that we will always be tied to OSU, so we will have to beat them to be one of the 4 B1G playoff teams. Oh well, it will still be an interesting season possibly playing MSU and IU twice?
I am a masochist so I will enjoy playing Ohio State twice in one season. In all seriousness, being able to beat MSU twice and getting two shots at OSU will be pretty sweet. And then beating ND as well would be icing on the cake. If true this will be a kick ass season to help offset the Covid horrors.
Just wait until Spring for this one season: February-Early June. Ratings would be astronomical, and there is an outside chance of a vaccine by then perhaps.
Start the 2021 season in late October-Early March instead of August so players can get a couple months off to rest up and recharge.
Go into 2022 with a normal schedule in September.
If this season is truly chaotic & it’s basically impossible to crown a Big Ten or National Champ, I’m kind of OK with that. It would actually be a relief to just not care about poll rankings, divisional standings, etc.& instead just enjoy each game in isolation.
You'll still care though. As long as there is interest people will care about winning.
Good Lord, can someone edit Spaths articles before they publish them on SI.
There's no way to have a season in TX, FL, and CA right now, and those are the big three recruiting states in college football! The dominos will fall soon, but no one wants to be the first to announce because it may impact recruiting. The grand irony is that the SEC and TX schools may be forced to announce first!
I like the idea of empty stadium NFL in the fall and college football in the spring after there's a vaccine.
I am still not buying the idea that playing close to home lowers risk. Even if the team gets on a plane and stays in a hotel that is all a controllable environment. We can limit people on each bus, have them go strait to their rooms individually, hold meetings and eat meals in large hotel ball rooms while spread out, etc. You can make it very safe. It’s only a little over 100 people.
All of the is way safer then the biggest risk which is life on the college campus. The team will be going to class each day where they will be exposed to thousands of people. It’s pretty much guaranteed that players will go to parties and hang out with groups of friends indoors for long periods of time. Players are also going to have relationships with women who are also going to parties, etc. Road game with flight and hotel is likely many times safer than weekend hanging around Ann Arbor
It seems you’ve created an excellent argument for playing no games, independent of location.
If the weekday environment is a risky place to acquire the virus (no argument), the game itself is just as dangerous for spreading. (Linemen hard-breathing at each other all game!?) We cannot assume the players are negative unless tested right before games; and I don’t think coaches want to find out who is in the 2-deep on Friday or Saturday.
I really, really want to see a college football season; but I’m becoming less optimistic each week.
Unfortunately, UM and State may be two of the teams not playing at all.
The Michigan governor is one of the more hard core shutdown governors.
I'd say Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, NW and Illinois are all iffy too.
I'd be shocked if Michigan and MSU does not play football. I could see NWrn & Ill iffy due to their iron fisted governor. Rutgers may have the best chance of not playing.
Thanks for the summary. Very interesting. I'm a bit more pessimistic for a football season to take place this fall. What leads me to think this way is the fact that it's very much every program for itself thus far. Forget the NCAA, they're only there to rake in the cash, where's the B1G in all of this? No guidance and protocol consistency across the league?
A lack of publicly announced plans does not necessarily mean there's a lack of guidance or protocol from the conference. I suspect there are daily meetings at the school, conference, and national levels about how best to handle the evolving situation. If I were in their shoes, I wouldn't announce anything until the schedule for said plans demanded it.