Tourney result that will make this year successful...
(Not discounting the B1G tourney) but when it comes to the big dance...where do YOU need us to get to in order to feel good about the season? It's damn hard not to love this team, the way they play, the way they hustle (save Ill) and seem to have each others' backs.
For me Championship Monday. Win or lose I think this team needs to get there for me to not be pissed about the ending. Either way it's been a ride gentlemen. Hope it ends with us cutting down some more nets. Go Blue.
* go easy on me first thread started
A LOT of bizarre things can happen in the tourney. Exit before Elite Eight would be moderately disappointing. Love to see us in the Final Four, but not gonna begin that entitled fanbase that "expects" a trip to FF each year.
That's almost exactly where I am. I think they could run the table, but I'll be OK with Elite Eight.
Lots of variables:
- Dickinson (obviously): If he has a lousy game or gets in foul trouble everything changes. He's the flagship.
- Wagner: He's maybe not absolutely high-variance but he's relatively so on this team. At the bench level Johns is in the same category.
- OK, maybe only two. We largely know what we have with everyone else (Livers, Brooks, Smith, Brown, Davis).
The last thing I want to see in the early rounds: An underachieving team with a bunch of young, "plus" athletes (like Duke if they make the cut).
That's a good observation. The NCAA tournament is a crapshoot, not only because of the single game elimination format, but also because of the way seeding works (resume vs. predictive strength rating) and matchups.
I absolutely do not want to see a team like Florida St. in the Sweet 16. Or a young, underachieving team with a ton of talent (like the 8-seed Kentucky team beat #1 Wichita St and Michigan on the way to the championship game).
That's why, while I'll be disappointed if UM doesn't make the FF/Elite 8, anything other than a loss to a 16-seed makes this season a success. An outright Big Ten title and a #1 seed is a hell of a season, no matter the tourney result.
It's not a total crapshoot. In most games the higher-seeded team wins, and certain coaches are more successful than others. Preparing a team for single-elimination is a skill. Beilein had it, and went 12-0 in the first game of the BTT and 8-1 in the first game of the NCAAs here. Steve Fisher was also an excellent tournament coach, whereas Bill Frieder wasn't.
The tournament has more variability than say, a seven-game series, but we normally end up with four very strong teams in the Final Four and the champ is usually a 30+ win team.
Yeah I mean it's not a random number generator but it's still high variance. Think about how differently we think of the Beilein era had Poole and Burke not hit improbable shots that go in maybe 10% of the time.
But the flip side is that Darius Morris and Derrick Walton missed last-second shots other years, and Harrison for UK hit that one to beat us. Beilein's teams were able to consistently get us to that point, where one play would decide the game. You get there enough and sometimes it goes your way.
Beilein's 20-1 record in the first game of the BTT/NCAA is almost certainly not a fluke, just as it's probably not a fluke that McCaffery has a terrible postseason record.
I agree with you but thats also basketball. Jordan Morgan please make that put back!
Your Fisher/Frieder point is probably correct, but it sure helps when Glen Rice hits everything.
I'll push this a step further and say a loss at the Elite Eight would be moderately disappointing, but I'd get over it and consider the season an unqualified success.
A loss in the Sweet 16 would be a disappointment and leave a lingering sense of a lost opportunity.
A loss in the first weekend would be bitterly disappointing and tarnish the regular season accomplishments.
Make the Final Four or better and the season is an unqualified success.
If you hang 2 banners in a season, it's successful.
Whether that's B10 champions + BTT champions OR B10 Champions + Final 4
Single elimination tournaments are always random, the best team doesn't always win the national championship.
My personal order of achievements:
Natty > Final Four > B10 Champs > Elite 8 > BTT Champs > Sweet 16
Agreed. Final Four is my line.
Mich will be a 1 seed. I would be lying if I said anything less than a Final Four. Sorry, I know that puts the bar high but this team is good.
it is a different season. remember, we were unranked until a month into the season. i get the thought that if we don't get to the finals, or even the final four, that it would be a let down but that probably lacks some perspective.
given how far we've come, sure, let's make it to the final four. but given we were considered cannon fodder for the B10 this year, even a sweet 16 is quite the upgrade.
I'm with you. Given preseason expectations, this team has already overachieved. While I would be disappointed by an early tourney exit, as a whole the year would still be successful.
That said, at this point a reasonable expectation is Sweet 16 or Elite 8. I don't think you can ever REASONABLY expect a Final Four. Anything Final Four or beyond is above reasonable expectations, even at this stage. Oh yes, and B1G tourney champs would be nice also.
Kinda wild to look back in hindsight. I remember early in the year that we were hoping we'd just go .500 through the difficult stretch of the schedule
The NCAA Tourney is so hard to predict. Takes so much toughness (not the MSU kind), quite a bit of injury luck (ask Villanova), and for a team to pull together. Even then, there are no guarantees. I'd love to see at least a run to the Final Four but that wouldn't be needed in my mind for a successful season. With all the unusual stuff going on, these young men have pulled together, played for one another, and demonstrated a team-first mindset that is just so fun to watch. In their 40-year plan, they've already been successful.
If I’m being fair, then E8 maybe S16.
Personally, I give overwhelming importance to march so I’d say Final Four.
After 10 years of garbage football can’t we just enjoy the run?
Are you rounding down?
10 years? For as long as I can remember it has been mostly "play not to lose" for Michigan football. (When playing with a fourth-quarter lead, telegraph three straight runs into a stacked box, punt, and rely on a tired defense. If a play carries a > 1% risk of a turnover don't bother with it, etc.) There's been some utter incompetence (Rodriguez, Hoke) sprinkled in, too. I expect nothing else in the near future.
It's been fascinating to see another team at the same school (basketball) that's been culturally different from that for parts of three regimes (Fisher, Beilein, Howard).
National champs. When we have a team like this we need to capitalize. I’m sick of losing in the championship game. Gonzaga is really good but they haven’t played anyone in months, they’re beatable. Baylor is athletic but don’t really have the size to contend with Dickinson. Point is we have as good a chance as anyone to win it all, and even with Howard’s recruiting we don’t know when we’ll have a team of this caliber again.
I feel an UNACCEPTABLE (!!!) coming here.
If you put any stock in recruiting rankings, we'll have a better collection (though young and less mature) of athletes next year.
No it wouldn’t be unacceptable. The year is already a success but with a team this good, any tourney result that isn’t cutting down the nets on Monday night will feel like a disappointment.
Sure next years team will be more athletic and talented, but way less experienced. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect the team to be as good as they’ve been this year (i.e. steamrolling arguably the toughest conference ever).
1. If you'd asked the average not-insane fan at the beginning of the season, Sweet Sixteen. Now, Elite 8 at the minimum.
2. "go easy on me first thread started":
Well said, Don.
I especially enjoyed that gif, which perfectly illustrated what I felt when I read the OP's last line and nearly down-voted him for it.
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Season is already successful they have a banner to hang. First B1G regular season in a long time.
Add another banner (BTT or Final Four) and it’s an amazing year. Win it all and it’s the best Michigan basketball season ever.
Assessing our entire season if it reaches but ends at the...
Final Four: I'll be happy
Championship Game: I'll be happy but disappointed.
National Championship Victory: NO WORDS COULD DESCRIBE THE JOY!
I know it sounds a bit convoluted, but I would almost rather lose the semifinal game than lose in the Championship Game. We've been there, done that too many times since our last National Championship in 1989.
It's sorta like the difference between winning an Olympic ? or ? Medal.
Interesting note: For all the fellating of Izzo, Sparty only has three championship game appearances, to our seven. That also means Beilein made it to Monday night just as many times as Izzo.
Focusing on Izzo, he's been there only twice in eight tries. It's interesting because he gets lots of "He'll get you to the second game of the weekend" praise.
He's a "good" coach based on statistics, no doubt, but every time I had to listen to Dick V say something about him being a hall of fame coach I just cringed. He gets to ride that HOF wave for the rest of his life, but he has been getting absolutely outclassed by 35% of the B1G for the last 5-10 years or more. No one does less with more than this guy.
Yeah but they've won twice in just 3 attempts and we've won once in 7 tries... I'd take 2 titles over 1 every time
Already feel great about the season. Even an early departure in March won't diminish it, just add a mild dose of "I wonder..." But this is the discussion for after the tournament ends. For now, anything other than winning it all is a disappointment. That's kinda the whole point of the tournament, isn't it?
I can’t answer the question quite yet because of the Illinois game. I discounted the Minnesota game as a return trip after a blowout and we just didn’t put in the effort. Illinois throttled us in a different sort of way, and without Ayo, so I don’t really know at this time. I want to see a rematch with Illinois before I set any expectations for the tournament. As of right now, anything short of sweet 16 would be a disappointment due to the amount of upperclassmen we have. If we come back and play Illinois and beat them in the Bigten tournament then I will have to readjust my expectations for the tournament again.
A #1 seed should make the regional final at least, IMO. A sweet sixteen loss would be a notable disappointment.
The Illinois game certainly gives me pause, but perhaps a necessary one. There is no such thing as an unbeatable team in college basketball. Some of the most prominent examples have lost; even years where there's a clear favorite (which we are not) it's even chances whether that team makes it. Remember that all-powerful undefeated Kentucky team from a few years ago that played well together and had talent at every position? They lost to Wisconsin.
So Illinois, it turns out, might have the personnel and the style of play that poses a real problem for how our team is constructed. We shouldn't be surprised, because we don't have NBA talent at every position, so there is going to be a weakness somewhere. The result is that I'm worried if we play Illinois, or someone like Baylor who has a lot of athleticism in the backcourt.
But those are games we are unlikely to play early. Who else combines a Kofi-sized athletic big with athletic guards that can make tough shots in the lane and stay in front of our shooters? There aren't many. The two other top-tier teams will be tough matchup for us but they don't have a Kofi. We know Hunter can defend any big (even Kofi! He started off really well!) and we know that basketball tourney games can be fluky.
Any team can lose. But any team can win. And we have more bullets in the chamber than a lot of others.
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There exists a type of team that can give Michigan a fight every single game. That requires a team with big guards who can score at all 3 levels (off the dribble 3s, mid range, and at the basket), a big that can handle Dickinson 1 on 1, and generally good athletes at most positions. Illinois has that. Minnesota kind of did but Michigan was also down their starting SG/back up PG.
Smith is small and Brooks isn't average for a SG. They run into Duane Washingtons or Curbelos and it's a problem.
The offense works well when Dickinson can either go to work 1 on 1 and score in double digits with high efficiency, or draws doubles and can kick the swing passing into motion. Cockburn didn't need help and is a mountain. And even though Davis is oddly efficient offensively, he doesn't provide the same type of opportunities around him that Dickinson does.
Wagner is a tree, but not a super athletic one. His pull up game isn't great and he's not a consistent blow by risk. Livers has a great outside shot, even when contested. But he's always struggled to get to the rim. Brooks is pretty bad in the mid-range and off the bounce. Smith is small (where's the Simpson hook?!). Brown is more 3 and D than multi-level scorer.
If Michigan runs into a team that has at least 2/3, then it will almost assuredly be a toss up. I don't know how many 8+ seeded teams have that, so that gives Michigan a very strong chance at the S16. Then you'd need to look at 4 or 5 seeds to see who meets that criteria. Again, I'm sure there will be some match up problems at that stage, but Michigan has very good coaching and very good players so I'd give them a strong chance at the E8. After that, accounting for the randomness of the tournament, it kind of becomes a crap shoot.
The other chance for an early out is your usual ref show, terrible shooting performance, or a team goes unconscious from 3, but anyone can have those.
Andrew Curbelo is not big. And he was hardly one of the big difference makers in that game. Illinois' guards were notably not big. Frazier destroyed us when he was playing D and he's Brooks size.1-4 we were bigger than them.
Curbelo is big(ger) than Smith and Frazier is 6'2" (bigger than both Brooks and Smith)/Michigan's guards aren't big generally and have never really had a size advantage. Frazier's season FGA/FG3 is pretty low and yet he took 13 2PA to his 5 3PA. So a guy who usually isn't probing the lane and getting to the rim a lot, did. And while size my have been over emphasized in my previous comment, guys who can get in the lane and finish over guys like Brooks and Smith (because they aren't big) are more of the issue.
Having a height advantage at the 3 and 4 in Livers and Wagner is very useful defensively, but neither guy's offense is really built to exploit height mismatches in the traditional way. They're more perimeter and slashing type wings instead of guys who can punish a 6'5" guy on the post.
Curbelo had 17 points on 8/14 shots made. He was their second leading scorer. It seemed like 80% of his shots that went in clanged around the rim before they went it. Man that pissed me off.
I already feel GREAT about this season. We won the big ten in a year where the conference is historically excellent. Anything further is gravy. Enjoy and don’t set up arbitrary goalposts that could steal the joy of this historic season. Be a smart fan - enjoy sports without creating unnecessary stress for yourself.
I don't NEED anything. I'll be bummed if they don't make the FF, and looking at various matrices, I don't see many teams that pose a scary match-up for M until the FF. But as others have noted, the NCAAT can be crazy, and this team has been a delight all season.
Right now, I want a rematch with illannoy in the BTT to see how the coaches "solved" their match-up issues. They'll get the Rutgers/staee winner, then likely the Purdue/o$u winner. They should get through those to the BTT final, but you never know.
If I'm honest, I want all the banners.
Based on the start of the year, and projections it's already been a success for me.
The final four would exceed current expectations, I'd probably at least like to see an elite 8 visit.
If you asked any of the players they would probably respond with anything less than a NC is a loss. Thats where I stand too. These guys dont play to feel proud of themselves for playing well, they play to win.
I think winning the toughest conference, with multiple top 10 wins, is enough for me to call this year a success.
I think anything after the Sweet 16 would be gravy.
I think a Final Four would be reasonable for me. Anything less I'll be disappointed a bit. Anything more and I'll be pumped!
National Championship. I dont believe in setting rational goals---not interested in moral victories in the sports I watch or in life. Go big or go home. If it doesnt happen, so be it---but preparing to fail doesnt work for me.
Anything that isn't a championship will be something of a disappointment, but obviously how far matters. I remember 2013 and 2018 quite fondly; I remember 2014 reasonably fondly, too, though we lost in the Elite Eight, and the Sweet 16 run in 2017 was a blast thanks to the B1G tournament, the unique circumstances, and the joyful defeat of Louisville.
Since Michigan looks poised to earn a #1 seed, anything short of a regional final will be quite a downer. Losing in the regional final would be a disappointment, but I'd still remember the season quite fondly. Making the Final Four would make the season a significant success.
And, if we're there, we might as well win it, right?
But this is a matter of scale. If we bow out in the regional final, it's a disappointment, but we still had a really good season and hung a banner (or two?). The reality is that it's really hard to win the tournament. Yeah, teams like Duke and Villanova do it on occasion, but they also lose a lot. Kentucky hasn't won nearly as much as their talent profile suggests they should have. Kansas, which has a blank check with which to draw talent and wins the Big 12 almost every season, has won once since 1988 and needed a miracle comeback and last-second shot from Mario Chalmers to even do that.
I think this is a good topic btw.
We hung a banner. Successful season, full stop.
For tourney advancement at a personal joy level? Second weekend would make it feel less like a disappointment.
We have already had a great season!!! B1G Champs in a season where the B1G was perhaps the toughest conference of all time. Anything can happen in March Madness. Look at our 1989 team. Who had them winning the Natty. Elite 8 would satisfy the requirements of a good season. GO BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!