JBLPSYCHED

March 8th, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^

"Flight FU404 to Lansing is currently on the tarmac, 100 feet from the jetway, idling for no apparent reason. FU airlines reporting that no further information is available at this time. Btw they remind passengers, including those in the privileged seats in front of the ego curtain, to remain seated with their belts securely fastened."

Joined: 11/27/2010

MGoPoints: 7441

AZBlue

March 8th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^

TLDR - Ha ha Sparty - welcome to the big leagues of recruiting.

 

I don’t want to come off condescending to MSU fans (well maybe a little..) but watching them learning about and coping with modern recruiting under Tucker is fascinating.  I am certain most M fans went through this same process years ago under Hoke, RichRod, and early Harbaugh…

First they had to change their parameters from Dantonio mode

- Putting out a lot of offers isn’t haphazard or desperate.  It’s “casting a wide net”.

- Signing more kids than current roster slots isn’t evil and callous, it’s smart.  Scholarships will come open eventually and if a kid has to be nudged out the door  it’s because spots “have to be earned”.

- Most importantly - recruiting rankings actually DO matter.  (Not exact on every recruit but an overall baseline.)


Concepts still being Learned

-  Top tier recruits -particularly those out of region- that “commit” after early summer/fall official visits due to excitement or “hot-car” hype (see also family atmosphere, Hoke B.) have probably less than 50% rate of actually signing once the Southern powers arrange official visits.

- Being in a highly ranked recruits “Top X” graphic is only truly exciting IF ‘Bama, UGA, Clemson, etc are not also on that list OR they have a close relative who is an Alum etc.

- A recruits’ ranking tends to fall over the course of a cycle,  I.e. #56 overall.  This is due to other recruits being “found” or rising, not an evil conspiracy against your school.  (Pro tip - track the recruit number rating - this should remain steady for most recruits despite changes to overall rank.)

- In most cases a 3-star recruit is a 3-star recruit regardless of region.  A Georgia 3-star is not inherently better than a Midwest 3-star as much as it makes you feel better.  Exceptions happen but generally kids in the south are better scouted = less chance for unseen upside and have less feel for the rivalries and loyalty to the school/region so things average out.

Masterclass topics many M fans are still working on

- Signing a few lower-ranked player is not the end of the world, context matters. Inking an unranked kid that gets the obligatory 3-star bump Is not a sign of the apocalypse.  Schools have large scouting staffs an connections with regional coaches that may find a kid that services may have missed.  They keys to look for-  did your school pursue this player early in the process ? — did the late riser you offered after missing on top targets also get a late offer from other top schools?  (See Jimmy Rolder or CJ Stroud). Yes - signing half a class of these type players is a bad sign for recruiting but context matters.

- NIL is not the reason every top recruit goes elsewhere / neither are ALL such players in the “good riddance we want TEAM players” category.  Yes there are clear examples of both but this is a crutch for denial.

- History, BlueBlood Status, and potential future success - ALL matter in recruiting.  It might not be “fair” but it is reality.   — Schools have to recruit harder, identify talent better, determine which Top-100 prospects will actually give you a strong look, and out coach other teams on the field to achieve the success needed to rise in that hierarchy. —- M is edging closer to OSU and the very top tier but need another few years of success to get there.  As for MSU, Dantonio was doing it (and you still see the residuals in-state) against Rodriguez and Hoke but it will take YEARS of success to be on an even playing field with the CFB powers in recruiting.

 

State fans — It gets easier once you get used to the “rules” and stop taking things so seriously.

M fans - what did I miss?

 

 

Joined: 09/14/2008

MGoPoints: 16869

95civicex

March 8th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^

I appreciate the effort in writing this up
And I think you have some pretty good points in there.


Ultimately though, you summed it up perfectly:
 

"stop taking things so seriously."

 

Helpful advice for anyone even remotely paying attention to recruiting.

Joined: 12/14/2010

MGoPoints: 1783

bronxblue

March 8th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^

I feel like this tweet by Graham Couch succinctly embodies a lot of the points you're making here.

https://twitter.com/Graham_Couch/status/1633188083704246277

The part about 3 *'s all sorta being the same rings true - there was some analysis I saw years ago that showed if you look at the actual states where NFL players come from it largely looks like the nation generally; there may be a couple more kids from certain areas that have particular focus on football vs. other sports (i.e. some smaller southern states produce more NFL talent than, say, NY state despite the population differences) but a 4.6 40-yard time from Macon, Georgia is the same as a 4.6 from Macomb Township.

Recruiting is always going to be slapdash to an extent and more often than not ends in disappointment - even the team with the #1 class likely missed out on more kids than they wound up getting.  What Dantonio did (and what Harbaugh is doing now) is ID'ing the types of guys he wants to the offensive and defensive systems he plans on using and recruiting to them at the margins, Moneyballing it to an extent when it comes to linemen, RBs, WRs, etc.  And since he's been successful for some years doing that it allows him to make specific pitches to certain recruits and retain them.  I've not quite gotten what Tucker is trying to do at MSU with his recruiting - I see and hear a lot of talk about getting "faster" and "better athletes" but that mostly seems like a shorthand for getting backups from ACC and SEC schools.  Occasionally that works out - see Walker, Kenneth - but more often than not it's Quavaris Crouch, Ameer Speed, and the slew of other middling defensive transfers they've gotten who recruiters once thought would be high-level players but never showed that ability on the field.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171910

LDNfan

March 8th, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^

'shorthand for getting backups from ACC and SEC schools.'

This is very much the case...and those back ups with high expectations might not be as bought in as the guys that were with the program from the beginning so once adversity hits (and its more likely to hit than not with Sparty) I imagine its a lot harder to keep those guys locked in esp when the weather turns and the 'L's start to accumulate. 

Joined: 09/28/2014

MGoPoints: 10517

brad

March 8th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^

Bad news for them, but I'm sure Michigan State's football team will bounce right back from this setback and show the world what a resilient and mentally tough group they are.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 15831

Cruzcontrol75

March 8th, 2023 at 9:41 PM ^

Did anyone notice that the LB that just decommited (3/5) from Ole Miss, Jordan Lockhart, St John Bosch, CA, picked up an offer from Michigan the other day?  

Joined: 05/20/2015

MGoPoints: 9133