Could be some of both: some over counting, some under counting, but pneumonia death figures are way down in the 2019-2020 season so far.
That's because the Coronavirus doesn't kill you (generally) just like the Flu doesn't kill you (generally). Both weaken your immune system so something else kills you.
I'm assuming the flu deaths this year will be record lows, as well as pneumonia.
Covid 19 is no joke if you are in a high risk group, and flattening the curve is a very real strategy, but I think most people have lost sight of those objectives.
This is FALSE. The number you are talking about pales in comparison to the amount that are being or will be missed due to lack of testing. But undercounting is usually the case for a lot of infectious disease. We are definitely not overcounting though. You can read about it here:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html
Or here:
Anecdotally, one of my wife’s cousins is a doctor and works in a hospital in Alabama. She says they can barely test the doctors and hospital staff, and if someone dies they don’t have the time to investigage--they just mark the apparent cause of death and move on. As a result she’s certain they’re under-counting COVID-19 deaths.
stay classy...lick a toilet? really? I understand why so many fan base groups speak of Michigan alum and fans as they do...All I did was post two data points...never said good, never said bad, never said ANYTHING more...and now you make 'death threats' assuming that's what your comment implied...if there is anything I know without hesitation...you can play a part of the big man with giant balls on the internet all day...come find me and see how this narrative changes in the blink of an eye.
This is true. My mother was in a very small nursing home in West Bloomfield till two days ago. Two women there very recently died from unknown causes but most likely Coronavirus.A third tested positive for Coronavirus. My mom got her test results this morning and is positive. Her oxygen level is quite low and they have her on morphine to ease the pain.
China is way under counting how many have died from covid 19. They claim something like 3900 in Wuhan where people living there and experts say it’s probably more like 50K. Numbers are much worse worldwide then what is actually being reported including the US
Honestly, even at 50k it sounds really light. They basically acted like it didn't exist for over a month in a city where people are living on top of each other. IMHO there's no way it's only 50k in Wuhan. Then again I'm just an IT guy who likes math.
@Blue-by-you
You're a schmuck. If not for some degree of stringent social distancing, there is already an estimated 7-13x more COVID-19 cases *and* deaths in the US. Oh btw, we're still not at the peak of wave #1.
Second, mortality rate of COVID-19 is 10x higher than the flu. 2% vs 0.2%.
Third, you're comparing something that completed a cycle versus one that is still happening.
Do I need to link a twitter video demonstrating how Fox News went from calling this overblown to drastically changing its tune in a few days?
Michigan fan or not, you're clearly an idiot.
I mean, we have no idea if social distancing has had any effect at all. We have no idea if the current infected/death numbers are correct. Could be more, could be less.
And that mortality rate is DEFINITELY not right. Will take a lot more testing for those who are asymptomatic. In the same vein of you insulting Fox News viewers, you are simply parroting what you hear from other news sources as well.
Damn, that's an awful lot of wrong for a single post.
States like CA that started social distancing and working from home earlier have seen slower growth in the rate of new infections. Wait and see what's happening in Florida 2-3 weeks from now.
The number of reported infections, and deaths, are both higher than reported due to lack of testing. We won't know the actual death rate for months or years.
Fox News viewers deserve to be insulted. That network should be sued out of existence for downplaying the threat for 2 months.
You are making my case by agreeing the numbers reports are wrong.
There are several studies that show the tests used in the last month to be inaccurate - with high false positive and false negative rates. The newer tests should be more accurate, but there is not a lot of evidence either way that I have seen. More studies on that will be needed.
I linked to two such studies below. Do you have any studies/evidence that show otherwise? I ignore the news and try to learn directly from the science - I could have missed some studies. Would be glad to learn more if I did.
The numbers in all of these scientific studies are imprecise, but ignoring them is sooooooooo dumb.
Questioning whether social distancing has any effect is taking skepticism way past the point of reason.
Social distancing by the elderly is saving lives, their own. There is now plenty of evidence this barely effects people under the age of 20. But I guess we'll all sit on our houses indefinitely to extend the lives of great grandma and grandpa another 18 months. Awesome. You all realize the average age of death from this disease is like 80 years old. We're not saving lives, we're extending them by months for people who don't really care. Seriously, if I make it to the year 2056 and there's a strong flu outbreak, don't go $2 trillion into debt and destroy the economy for my sake.
My niece, my nephew, and my nephew's wife all work on the front lines of this battle at Spectrum Hospital in Greenville and I pray often for their safety and health.
I also have a dear Great-Aunt who is 3 weeks away from her 104th birthday in an area nursing home, she still has the mental capacity of most people half her age; an Uncle (91) and Aunt (87) who still live at home just 8 miles west of Greenville, and numerous other relatives in the area ranging from 2 to 95 in age.
Now I'm going to have to hope and pray most people in the Greenville area look at the health threat of COVID-19 much more seriously than you apparently do.
(edit @ 6:25 pm: that same nephew, BTW, not only survived several tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan while in service to this country, he and his wife who work at Spectrum are parents to 2 young children. They are heroes in so many ways, as is my niece there and as are so very many who put their own safety on the line daily in any capacity to try to keep things better for the rest of us )
They're in a good place. We are barely seeing any effects from this in Greenville. And they won't come into contact with me if they stay inside, where they should be. See how this works?
You are viciously stupid. Stay the fuck home, you fucking dolt.
What is wrong with your brain? It's not real enough for you yet? I absolutely loathe people like you, I can only hope Darwin has some magic in store.
Yeah, let's go $10T into debt by expaning military spending and giving tax breaks to the rich
As Sopwith said below, the first article on false positives was withdrawn. Second article says that false negatives exist and recommends additional testing. We still need more tests ... my staff and colleagues can’t get tests because they’re told they’re not sick enough.
Learning directly from science is fine, but don’t ignore epidemiologists ... it’s their job to sort this stuff out and make estimates in a noisy data environment.
Edit: Sorry, dupe.
The debate seems to be about how severe the undercount of deaths is, not whether it is an over count or under count. And as to whether the case count is high or low, a couple of interesting statistics:
As of today (4.5.20) the Covid Tracking Project reports 9,498 deaths and 14,486 recoveries. This is a mortality rate of almost 40%. Obviously the mortality rate is not that high (estimate generally range from 1% to 3.4%). There is a time factor and a reporting factor at play, as recoveries likely take longer than deaths and are also likely undercounted. However, neither of these is likely to explain away a 10x to 20x discrepancy.
Another interesting way to look at it. According to the Lancet, the average time from first symptom to death is 17.8 days. That means that those 9,498 people that are dead today were likely COVID-19 positive 17.8 days ago. If we go back 18 days, with a 2% death rate we would expect to see 474,900 positive cases 18 days ago. The Covid Tracking Project reported only 7,730. This represents a 60x underreporting of cases relative to deaths.
The Trump administration claims that there is no shortage of tests and no backlogs so that is the assumption used above. If you don't believe that, and think that there is an average delay of 5 days for test results, you would only look back 12 days in the scenario above. On that day 42,152 cases were reported. This yields only an 11-fold under report of cases.
Note that all of the above assumes that every COVID-19 death is properly reported, which as other posters have pointed out is highly unlikely.
All the statistics simply can't add up, and the smart money is on deaths being the most accurate indicator and cases being far undercounted. Once there is enough data to start measuring surplus deaths (deaths this season compared to expected deaths) we will have a better idea of how many actually died of COVID-19 and ideally random testing for antibodies will eventually tell us the percentage of the population that had the disease and we can determine a fairly accurate mortality rate.
Regardless of case and mortality rates, until we have an effective treatment and/or a vaccine, our choice is between social distancing and letting the virus kill a whole bunch of people.
there's a saying in epidemiology, "all models are wrong, but some are useful"
Hello from San Francisco. Social distancing works.
Hes not wrong at all Hatter.
Why are so many professionals whether in the medical field, business, academia, science and on and on starting to question the "official" data and mainstream narrative about how deadly this virus actually is?
Because the truth is no one knows for sure.
What is incomprehensible is that you seem to believe that you have a point.
You are a fools fool with your "starting to question" "point". OMG!!! We in the medical field have had many questions from the beginning. Your last question is certainly on the mark...and it begs the question of "WHY!!!"...well, it doesn't really. The stunning incompetence, ineptness and ignorance-beginning at the top of the federal government defines the reason for our alarming state of affairs quite clearly.
I could not care less if the President knows what to do here. But get the hell out of the way of those who do know-and support them. This is not a popularity contest. The lack of organization, leadership and guidance at the federal level is flabbergasting and inexcusable...and will likely cause many (additional) deaths.
The swift and strong action taken by Trump has saved many American lives. If Trump caves to the pressure of the crooked liberals he never would have banned flights from China so early. And then when things were getting worse plastic Pelosi suggested we go around hugging Asians. Sleepy Joe suggested we continue “business as usual”. We must all thank God or whatever you believe in that Trump was in charge for this and not the crooked dems.
You are part of the problem
Why are you so emotionally invested in Trump? Why do you care that he sucks at this? Do you feel like his failings are yours?
I’m invested because I deeply care about humanity. And when I see a man who has done so much for humanity be criticized unfairly and grossly, I must speak up.
you just make shit up
I assumed this was parody, but now I'm not sure. Really looking forward to football season!
Bookmarked and saved for when a football season rolls around and I can't understand certain people's takes. Now I will.
https://twitter.com/MarkSimoneNY/status/1246054216839413760
You mean like Dr. Fauci, who in January said Americans shouldn't worry about the Coronavirus?
What about the World Health Organization, which on top of tweeting out propaganda from China that the coronavirus wouldn't transfer human to human on January 14th, on March 3rd said the following:
https://mobile.twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871709091667969
Just look at the idiocy given what we know now being tweeted from WHO. They told the world, in early March, based on Chinese data, that asymptomatic carriers weren't a big deal and only 1% (!!!!!!) of people with COVID-19 do not show symptoms.
Trust the experts.
Feb. 26: “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” — Trump at a press conference.
March 7: “No, I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” — Trump, when asked by reporters if he was concerned about the arrival of the coronavirus in the Washington, D.C., area.
March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” — Trump after meeting with Republican senators.
At those times the CDC and the WHO were saying this was contained and it was not going to spread. Once they changed their recommendations so did the president. His decisions had been made based on the recommendations of these experts.
February 25
The CDC urged American businesses and families to start preparing for the possibility of a bigger outbreak. Messonnier said that parents should ask their children’s schools about plans for closures. Businesses should consider whether they can offer telecommuting options to their employees, while hospitals might need to look into expanding telehealth services, she said.
“Disruption to everyday life might be severe,” Messonnier said, adding that she talked to her children about the issue Tuesday morning. “While I didn’t think they were at risk right now, we as a family ought to be preparing for significant disruption to our lives.”
But please, try again
People don't want to hear that about the WHO, as I have learned.
I'm curious.....did you feel the same way about the leadership in 2009-2010 when H1N1 was running rampant and nearly nothing was forced to shut down?
If we want to compare numbers, compare H1N1 in the first 4-6months to Covid 19 in first 4-6 months. Then someone please tell me why we're acting like this is the black plague.
It perplexes me why you’d want to make such comparisons. Swine flu was ultimately not particularly dangerous and by all accounts Obama did a pretty good job of handling it, but if you’d like, here are a few highlights from the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/April_October_17.htm
- CDC estimates that between about 2,500 and 6,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 3,900 2009 H1N1-related deaths.
Those numbers don’t compare particularly well with just the last week for Covid-19
In terms of response, as documented below, in the month the threat was identified states were sent equipment from the national stockpile and a test was developed. A test was developed within 2 weeks and a little over one month after the virus was identified, 40 states were certified to do their own testing. As has been well documented, the rollout of Covid testing has not been as smooth.
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm
2009 H1N1 was first detected in the United States in April 2009.
Infection with this new influenza A virus (then referred to as ‘swine origin influenza A virus’) was first detected in a 10-year-old patient in California on April 15, 2009, who was tested for influenza as part of a clinical study. Laboratory testing at CDC confirmed that this virus was new to humans.
CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC) on April 22, 2009, to coordinate the response to this emerging public health threat. Response activities were organized into a team structure according to the National Incident Management System (NIMS)
These teams had different areas of focus including but not limited to: surveillance, laboratory issues, communications, at-risk populations, antiviral medications, vaccine, and traveler’s health issues. As the outbreak unfolded, team structures and staffing were periodically assessed for functionality and utility.
On April 24, 2009, CDC uploaded complete gene sequences of the 2009 H1N1 virus to a publicly-accessible international influenza database, which enabled scientists around the world to use the sequences for public health research and for comparison against influenza viruses collected elsewhere, and an updated report on the outbreak was published online in the MMWR.
On April 26, 2009, the United States Government determined that a public health emergency existed nationwide; CDC’s Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) began releasing 25% of the supplies in the stockpile that could be used to protect and treat influenza. This included 11 million regimens of antiviral drugs, and personal protective equipment including over 39 million respiratory protection devices (masks and respirators), gowns, gloves and face shields, to states (allocations were based on each state’s population).
While initial efforts were underway to develop a safe and effective vaccine to protect people against 2009 H1N1, work also was being done at CDC to help laboratories supporting health care professionals to more quickly identify the 2009 H1N1 virus in samples from patients. The real-time PCR test developed by CDC was cleared for use by diagnostic laboratories by FDA under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) on April 28, 2009, less than two weeks after identification of the new pandemic virus. Prior to the availability of this EUA, public health laboratories had been able to identify whether influenza A viruses were seasonal influenza viruses or were a novel strain, but the new diagnostic kits allowed labs to confirm a virus as 2009 H1N1. On May 1, 2009, CDC test kits began shipping to domestic and international public health laboratories. (Each test kit contained reagents to test 1,000 clinical specimens). From May 1 through September 1, 2009, more than 1,000 kits were shipped to 120 domestic and 250 international laboratories in 140 countries. Once labs had the test kits and verified that their testing was running properly, they were able to identify new cases more quickly than before and no longer needed to send samples to CDC for lab confirmation. The transition away from CDC lab confirmation testing didn’t happen overnight though - between April 23 and May 31, 2009, CDC influenza laboratory analyzed about 5,000 influenza virus samples, five times the number that were processed in a similar timeframe in 2008, and more than during any previous influenza season. By May 18, 2009, 40 states had been validated to conduct their own 2009 H1N1 testing, with eight states having multiple laboratories able to do their own testing. CDC alerted the public that the expansion in testing capacity would likely result in a jump in the number of 2009 H1N1 cases, but that this would actually present a more accurate picture of the true scope of 2009 H1N1 influenza in the United States.
Trump repeated over and over in one of his press conferences that 2.2 million Americans would die from Covid-19 if we didn't take measures like we are. That only 100K dead would be a great success as far as he is concerned.
Please let that sink in before you compare it to H1N1.
I work in the healthcare industry, zero time is spent questioning official data and how deadly the virus is. We have our own data and what we're doing is setting up temporary hospitals, trying to get ahead of this thing, keeping as many workers home as possible, and, naturally, tracking the cost.
If the flu is so much worse than this then why is Italy's health system fucked now and not 10x more every winter instead? Watch what happens to Brazil, Turkmenistan, Florida, and every other place that is ignoring it as people like you advocate.
What is going to happen in Florida two to three weeks from now? About all that has happened down here is food runs and medical appointments since March 17th. The beach parties, etc. that are being reported are fabricated stories. There are only a few beaches open in the entire state and people there are keeping their distance from one another. The one church in Tampa is one church in Tampa. And, we've been limited to essential business only for the past week. The curves are finally flattening. Our biggest problem is the influx of NY and NJ residents.
"We have no idea if social distancing has had any effect at all."
Uh, lol
Using models of causality (shoutout Judea Pearl), we can compare South Korea's approach to America's or Italy's woeful response and clearly demonstrate the benefit of social distancing. And note that South Korea is much closer to China than we are. We can also do it state-by-state (ex: Washington vs. Louisiana) to demonstrate the same thing.
We can also revisit pandemics in the past and show the benefit of social distancing (Philadelphia vs St. Louis in 1918). 100+ years after-the-fact allows us to critically, dispassionately examine and study such phenomenon. Social distancing is designed to reduce velocity and volume of interaction - an idea borrowed from, among other things, biophysics.
But here you are trying to lecture a data scientist (yeah, hi!).
And my news source is not CNN or Fox News. I come from a family of physicians and we have academic networks of highly intelligent, non-political professionals.
It's a limited sample, but Washtenaw County's newest data (updated today) suggests benefits from social distancing.
Week ending March 14 - 69 new confirmed cases
Week ending March 21 - 186 new confirmed cases
Week ending March 28 - 197 new confirmed cases
Week ending April 4 - 61 new confirmed cases
The Washtenaw County data is interesting in terms of the demographics.
I agree and respect your expertise but would not use the Chinese data. Mathematical modeling, independent reports from China and worldwide experience indicates this data is not accurate. It is simply not believable. It's quite possible Chinese deaths are magnitudes higher, maybe even hundreds of thousands or more. We just don't know. I had the wrong impression initially based on this fabricated data.
And South Korea's example also includes early aggressive testing and contact tracing as well as societal differences which might have included individual social distancing and other precautions. All of these play a role. It's very complicated with many variables.
Agree on both points.
Re: Paragraph 2 (i.e. multivariable complexity)
Yes, in causality models there are things called confounders (which do exactly as they indicate). We try to account for those and often generate a confidence band. We have to run advanced sims thousands (if not millions) of times (on changing assumptions) to get sensible estimates.
"we have no idea if social distancing has had any effect at all"
You can't be this f"in dumb? Do yo have a fucking clue how a virus spreads?
Stop listening to Alex Jones for gods sake.
Please stop with the Fox news stuff. I've been watching a lot of coverage from both "sides" and it's sickening how much finger pointing is being done.
NOBODY in the media or government was calling for social distancing and/or shut downs earlier than they happened.
Nancy Pelosi was encouraging people to visit SF Chinatown in late February, over three weeks after Trump declared a public health emergency:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZBFUA0JjFk
Trump declared public health emergency 3 weeks prior:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/white-house-to-hold-briefing-on-coronavirus-friday-afternoon.html
And NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio was encouraging New Yorkers to "get out on the town" as late as March 3rd:
https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229
Yes, Trump is an ass hat. But so are the people trying to lay the blame at his feet. Pelosi makes me as sick as Trump.
It's a once-every-100-year pandemic. People are going to die. We'll do our best to limit that loss of life. An we'll over compensate in anticipation of the "next big one". But the reality is humanity will always be fragile.
And here's a sobering thought: Our two choices for moving forward are DONALD DUCK TRUMP or JOE MAMA BIDEN. That's the best we can do?
Stay healthy. See you on the other side!?
He's the president, so yes, he gets the bulk of the blame for this. Especially considering that even now the administration is refusing to take the lead in managing the crisis. Didn't even start ordering masks and ventilators until 3 weeks ago. And now they're stealing PPE that the states ordered and having middlemen SELL stuff from the federal stockpile to the states.
Pelosi and the NY mayor both did and said stupid things, the mayor in particular probably caused a large number of deaths, but they have nowhere near as much power and influence as the WH.
Say what you want about Biden, but I trust him to hire competent people and put a general in charge of the federal response. Instead we have Jared fucking Kushner.
So take the both sides are bad BS and shove it up your ass sideways. One side is significantly worse than the other.