The hospitals are over-loaded in SOME places.
NYC, Detroit and NOLA among them.
But the hospitals are NOT over-loaded in significantly more major American cities.
It's going to get very interesting here, especially 14+ days from now.
These 2 things are going to likely happen in the next 14 days: (1) nearly universally across the states, the way things are trending, daily new cases are going to peak, then plateau, then slightly decline. And (2) most major American cities will not hit, or even closely approach, hospital over-load.
So, it will be April 20th, and the worst-case scenario will have, generally but not universally (depending on the region), been avoided.
But then what? Because if the hospitals aren't over-loaded, we should be able to think about opening things back up. Right? Or do we have to wait until there are zero deaths from the virus?
I'll make another prediction here. The discussion will quickly break down into 2 distinct groups. Team Aqua will want to keep the lockdowns in effect longer, "just in case." Team Scarlet is going to want to get things moving.
And ultimately that debate won't be about science or the economy or the facts and figures. It will devolve into the same political bull-shit from the last 4 years, except 5x worse with millions of Americans economic futures in the balance.
As I said --- things are going to get interesting here in the back half of April into May.
If things dont open back up in 2 - 3 weeks then you'll see that this isnt about a virus.
Theirs a lot more going on behind the scenes than we know...
I have no clue if it's anything good or bad though... but hoping its good.
+1.
This does seem like a 3-part play:
(1) The virus on the upsurge, and the concurrent gradual shuttering of the economy.
(2) The debate - likely a vicious debate - on making a plan for going forward. A plan that weighs (A) the economy vs. the virus, and (B) liberties vs. safety
(3) Someone wins that debate, and then we settle into a "new new normal", and then eventually either a vaccine or herd immunity develops and that mutes the Coronavirus nearly for good.
We're a lot closer to "the end of the beginning" (the end of Part 1) then people think. Might be only 2 weeks away.
Then Part 2: late April into the summer.
I'm more apprehensive about Part 2 of this play than Part 1. I see it as likely that Part 2 is vicious and even violent.
As regards your comment: a lot of powerful folks have a vested interest in how Part 2 plays out. The knives may come out.
Team Aqua will want to keep the lockdowns in effect longer, "just in case." Team Scarlet is going to want to get things moving.
I was a left-leaning libertarian, but have been pushed much further left over the past 3-1/2 years. That being said, I'm all for opening things back up when the time is right. Whether that's at the first sign of cases reducing, or a month after, that's not something I can comment on.
My great hope in this is that the shut down measures woke up everyone to the point that they take this virus seriously. When we do get freed up to return to normal lives, people need to practice social distancing still. Do your best to stay 6 feet apart. Wearing masks should be pushed to be accepted in society for the next 6 months to forever. Employees still need unlimited sick leave. The uninsured need to be covered for the sake of us all. Wash your hands constantly.
Herd immunity truly is the best way to fight this virus until a vaccine is produced. To do so, we need to infect everyone. To do that responsibly, we need to spread the infections out over time. If we get back to normal immediately after the stay-in-place orders are lifted, infections are going to skyrocket again. I'm all for returning personal liberties back to all people. But if we take those liberties for granted, or flaunt it, it's going to be taken away again.
And (2) most major American cities will not hit, or even closely approach, hospital over-load.
If most major city hospitals never get overrun by this, didn't the shut downs work?
Be careful. If you advocate for herd immunity amongst the young and healthy on this board you'll get death threats.
I am the young and healthy (I don't turn 30 till next week dammit!). Herd immunity is the goal, flattening the curve is the best course of action to get there. We can't shut everything down because then we can't spread the thing and protect us in the future. But the less people we send to the hospital at a time, the longer we stretch out these social distancing measures, the better.
NF - it’s not even all hospitals in an area, it’s only one or two. In NYC most hospitals are fine and have capacity but in particular was overrun for a short period of time and that was considered proxy for all of NYC.
Elmhurst is not all of NY....
Here are some examples of "low hanging fruit" as you described: people with diabetes, obese people, smokers.
Common sense was always going to come out on top, it was only a matter of time.
Way too many people are hypnotized by the mainstream opinions and "data".