Theory on no passing: feel free to share your competing theories

Submitted by ghostofhoke on November 12th, 2023 at 7:25 AM

We were at the game this weekend. Great game day atmosphere, the Penn State fans were great overall. The people around us were fun, knowledgeable and welcoming. The overwhelming impression was that Penn State fans and alums are just incredibly enthusiastic and normal. They also can’t stand James Franklin who is clearly the worst big game coach in history. (Small Game James)
 

Aside from the amount of TV timeouts, which was absolutely insufferable (the drive at the end of the 3rd Q/start of 4th Q had 9 minutes of TV timeouts for one series), we could not understand the play calling to run the ball moderately successfully over and over and over in the 2nd half. Completely understand the desire to run the clock and grind it out but taking the ball completely out of JJ’s hands really didn’t make a lot of sense when it seemed we had some success when trying to throw the ball up to that point. 
 

Then, early this morning I had a thought and I’ll share my theory, please feel free to share yours—wrong answers are welcome as always. My theory is that they wanted Harbaugh to have the opportunity to be on the sidelines when JJ passes him in all time passing yards. I didn’t think it was plausible but seeing Moore’s postgame interview, yeah, I think he’s that crazy and would do something like that while also showing the world we can dominate in any strange fashion we want to and shining light on the run game and offensive line. 
 

Am I crazy? My traveling partners think I am, I think they’re ignorant fools. 

chezfeld

November 12th, 2023 at 7:56 AM ^

It’s a good theory, I’m sure the all time passing yardage list was top of mind yesterday.  But in reality, JJ did throw an incompletion so you can’t really blame them for taking the ball out of his hands 

DennisFranklinDaMan

November 12th, 2023 at 8:00 AM ^

I'm skeptical of your theory, but it's creative!

I was a little frustrated by the constant running. Seems like everyone here is saying, "because it was working!" — but it really wasn't working. We only scored in the second half when they fumbled the ball on their side of the field — a field goal, after running plays on both second-and-long and third-and-long failed — and when Franklin went for it on fourth-and-six on his 30.

We didn't "dominate" on the ground at all. We did enough to win, certainly, and I'm not apologizing for it. But JJ was, what, 7 for 8 passing?! To suggest that our passing game wasn't working, or that just a few passes in the second half wouldn't have opened up some holes for Corum and Edwards ... well, respectfully disagree on both.

Anyway, yes, we won, and that was awesome. But I think the game was much closer than it needed to be, and the play calling was a bit perplexing. C'est la vie. Onwards!

1VaBlue1

November 12th, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^

"We only scored in the second half when they fumbled the ball on their side of the field..."

This is the very definition of 'Iowa-ing' a game - rely on stout defense for field position and get a cheap score when you can.  Iowa does this better than all other teams but one: Michigan.  Michigan has the offense - and the mindset - to play that game better than any other team in the country.  They don't do it often anymore, but it's still in the DNA that Bo engineered.

PSU's only chance was an Iowa win.  Unlucky for them that Michigan is all too happy to exercise it's DNA...

Other Andrew

November 12th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^

Crazy theory especially considering it probabky kills JJ’s shot at a Heisman.

Tackles couldn’t stop the rush, and giving up a big/bad turnover was likely the only way Michigan would lose the game at that point.

Johnny Blood

November 12th, 2023 at 8:04 AM ^

I (unfortunately) remember a game back in the RichRod days when Wisconsin did something similar to us. They just lined up and ran almost every play in the second half. And it was epically demoralizing.  
 

so I think Michigan knew that it both gave them a great chance to win and that it was a huge “fuck you” to Penn State and everyone else watching. 

mbrummer3

November 12th, 2023 at 8:09 AM ^

You play to win the game.  I swear a very vocal 5% would rather lose 45-42 and look cool then win 24-15.

You want galaxy brain.  Moore did it to get another Moore award.

growler4

November 12th, 2023 at 8:10 AM ^

I'm glad you had a good experiense at the game but your theory is ridiculous. One can agree or disagree with the play calling, but I have to think that Coach Moore chose to do what he did so as to give Michigan what he felt to be the best chance to win the game.

DeepBlueC

November 12th, 2023 at 8:12 AM ^

We neutralized one of our opponent’s biggest strengths. They had no chance for sacks, which would have been a huge boost for them. And we took the crowd out of the game in the second half. If we had thrown the ball at our usual rate in the second half, we might have won by more, but we would also have given Penn State a better chance to win. 

Team 101

November 12th, 2023 at 8:13 AM ^

Agree with MaizeBlueA2 that ghostofhoke is crazy.  JJ passing JH in all time passing yards had nothing to do with it.

Not being able to contain the edge rush I assume had something to do with.

I didn't agree with the strategy.  I thought we needed to do some play action on first down which should have worked based on the number of times we ran up the middle.  The DPI on our only pass attempt was off play action.  Of course I was yelling that at my TV when Blake scored his TD.

In any event Bo would have been proud and if Bo would have been proud then I'm sure JH was proud.

We won the game so I have no complaints today.  All I was looking for was a one point victory although it would have been nice to have seen a more dominating performance on the scoreboard.

I don't think this strategy will be enough against Third Base.

andy28625

November 12th, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^

"Am I crazy? My traveling partners think I am, I think they’re ignorant fools."

Both can be true simultaneously :)

I found this strategy to be very similar to a game against Iowa (?2021) where we basically just played for field position, and to minimize unforced/forced errors.

Have to admit, the wrinkle of having Harbaugh on the sidelines when JJ passes him never occurred to me, but I think the overarching goal was to just salt the game away as safely as possible.

Edit: Props to 1VABLUE1 above who said it better than me....

goblue2121

November 12th, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^

Penn St is small and aggressive up front. So M used their aggressiveness against them and bludgeoned them into submission.  Now OSU and Maryland have one more thing to prepare for. 

bighouseinmate

November 12th, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^

The only opportunity PSU really had to win was to win the turnover battle in the second half, and hope those turnovers led to short fields and points. Michigan had moved the ball well enough on the ground in the second quarter, and it’s defense had stifled PSU’s offense enough, that running the ball like UM did with essentially no passing was a calculated gamble by Moore that was unlikely to lose.
And the way the game was going at the time, if Michigan had made that interception they probably score again and win 31-9 going away, and holding PSU’s offense to under 200yds, a beat down of a top ten team on the road which is what the game really felt like at the end. 

Hensons Mobile…

November 12th, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^

Obviously your theory is wrong, as I'm sure everyone here has already explained.

During the game, with the score sitting at 14-9 and 17-9, I was definitely frustrated that we were not throwing the ball.

Given what happened to Barnhardt early on, and our defense, and their offense, it made sense to rely on the run. But I felt it was conservatism to an extreme.

But it in the end, it worked, so who am I to argue with success.

HelloHarbaugh

November 12th, 2023 at 8:26 AM ^

Their pass rush was killing our Oline and our D was stopping them. Running the ball was working(ish). The only way Penn St scores is a turn over.

While it was frustrating to watch it was a smart call. Get the lead, to put the ball at risk, play solid D and let frames screw up like he always does.

Plus you do have to wonder if Moore was a bit nervous to not screw it up.

cGOBLUEm

November 12th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^

I think the most logical explanation is they had an 8-point lead the majority of the second half. They were content to bleed the clock and lean on the fact that the probability of PSU driving to score a touchdown, executing the 2-point conversion, and then putting together another scoring drive is pretty low.

My crazy reasoning is that Sherrone Moore wanted to prove Michigan can win against the #1 rush defense in the country by running the football up James Franklin's ass for the last 30 minutes of the game. 

LBJamieMorris

November 12th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^

I agree that Moore had too much on his plate.  It’s a lot to ask in a hostile environment. The staff had to believe that the only way they lose is by losing the turnover battle and in order to stay on down schedule they had to establish the run. The only way they could establish the run is going to heavy sets and they didn’t have passing options off the heavy sets. I was surprised they didn’t have more play action but having a new HC be overly conservative on the road when you know the other team can’t score over 17 points isn’t a bad strategy.

shoes

November 12th, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^

I can confidently say that had zero impact on play-calling decisions. We wanted to impose our will, while reducing injury possibilities (unfortunately JJ still hurt his ankle), while showing little to OSU. We did it because we could do it.

shoes

November 12th, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^

An additional thought is this: I was worried about unbalanced officiating going in,  in 2 areas specifically:  PI calls against us on defense and Offensive holding calls, killing drives and field position. Running as we did pretty much eliminated the second concern.

I don't think this was a reason per se, but it was a positive impact of the decision.

Ghost of Fritz…

November 12th, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^

No.  No way.  Zero probability. 

Winning the game is the only thing that any coach thinks about.  Having Harbaugh on the field for some JJ record is 0.000000000% of the reason for 30 straight runs.

Michigan won.  The adjustments on offense were in the right direction, but Moore was way too extreme with it.  Took it way too far.  

That would not have happened if Harbaugh were on the sidelines.  No way.  The suspension was harmful.   

Sure, neutralizing Penn State's DEs with a lot of running, the heavy formations, etc. was absolutely the smart move, and credit to Moore for making the smart adjustments. 

But he took it way too far.  Failing to sprinkle in a few quick passes, screens, roll-out passing plays, etc....was not so smart.  It worked.  But that does not mean it was the best way.  Far from it. 

Michigan ran 30 straight running plays.  Adding in just 5 well-chosen passing plays in the 2nd half would have made this the three score win for Michigan.  

 

rc90

November 12th, 2023 at 8:41 AM ^

My theory is that the refs informed both coaches that offensive holding calls were turned off, and Moore said "Fine, we'll run it down their fucking throats."

AMazinBlue

November 12th, 2023 at 8:44 AM ^

The PSU pass rush, especially coming from JJs right was a significant problem. He couldn't get comfortable in the pocket.  On TV, it was obvious how quick their defense was.  They made the passing game very difficult.  Their over pursuit ended being an advantage for the running game. 

Ham

November 12th, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^

I think some people are remembering the 2nd half a little differently than what actually happened. I’ve seen multiple comments saying that Michigan kept running the ball because PSU couldn’t stop the run.

But between Michigan’s field goal that put them up 8 and PSU’s failed fourth down conversion at the end of the game, Michigan had 3 possessions. 2 of them were three-and-outs. The other possession had 2 first downs with the 2nd being the result of a DPI on the only play JJ threw it that half. All in all, they had 42 yards of offense on those 3 possessions.

I get the strategy. And it worked because the defense played perfectly down the stretch until Blake broke one for a touchdown to finally go up 2 possessions. But it was playing with fire. All it would have taken was one blown coverage or one missed tackle or one muffed punt or one fumble for the conservative play calling to bite Michigan in the end.

I get that the pass protection was weak, but it’s not like the only pass plays that exist are 5-step drops that require JJ to hold it for 5 seconds. He’s a Heisman-caliber future-NFL qb. It would have been one thing if Michigan already had a 2-possession lead, but to not use him to move the ball down the field more than once with a 1-possession lead seemed questionable. It reminded me of all the moments with Lloyd as the coach when a should-have-been comfortable win turned stressful because Lloyd didn’t seize the opportunity to put the game away and allowed the other team to hang around.

Ghost of Fritz…

November 12th, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^

100% agree with Ham.

And I am also 100% sure that today JH, Moore, and the rest are talking about this very thing.  After they go over film, JH and the rest will all agree that 30 straight runs worked, but was not the only way, or the best way, to neutralize the problem we had with Penn State's DEs in passing downs.

Moore obviously was under a ton or stress and pressure.  Did mostly the right thing with his second half adjustments.  But 30 in a row....   JJ is the best player on the field.  If you can't use five step drops with long developing routes...that does not mean you can't use his arm at all.   

 

ILL_Legel

November 12th, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^

Can we agree that Moore is knowledgeable enough to know the various options he has with the passing game?  He made a conscious decision and it was the right decision.  
 

This game does not mean they will not use the passing game differently to neutralize a pass rush in the future.  He didn’t need to in this game.  May need to in the future and they will be ready.  This game plan gives future opponents something else to prepare for.

ghostofhoke

November 12th, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^

Yeah, the run game ends up looking good because we broke some plays but in general it was a lot of 2nd and 8’s in those drives running the same series of plays. To say “they couldn’t stop it” is not really accurate and had we needed a quick scoring drive I would’ve had serious concerns. Stretching the field a bit wouldn’t have been a bad idea. I guess the upside is that should we have needed to pull some play action, we had things setup for surprise to make the fakes credible. Not to mention Corum had a fumble, so it wasn’t flawless—but it did work and what ultimately counts 

TheJuiceman

November 12th, 2023 at 8:57 AM ^

I thought it was an idiotic 2nd half gameplan. I get being conservative and not wanting to mess up the season calling a hero's game, but that shit was unnecessary.

It also fails to prepare JJ in case we get in a shootout with say Bama or Georgia.  Its like we didnt learn from last year.

But judging by how hard he cried over what, beating shitty Penn St. with a shitty gameplan, no theory is beyond the realm of belief imo. 

I thought he did that goofy shit to show you can know what a team is calling, but you still have to stop it. Sounds like some Harbaugh/Harbaugh's staff type shit. Brilliant! Not. 

 

Much respect on the win, but I hope they made their point. Nonsense. 

UWSBlue

November 12th, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^

I posted this in another thread but I think it was kinda like JFK & Khrushchev communicating through chess moves during Cuban Missile Crisis.

Moore was sending a recognizable message of support to Harbaugh by running a Schembechler offense for a half to put the game away.

”I love the sh*t out of you man. I did this for you” is the tell.

McRam

November 12th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^

It would be a real bummer if JH wasn’t on the field for both of those accomplishments (JJ passing his yardage total and the 1,000th win).