Theory on no passing: feel free to share your competing theories
We were at the game this weekend. Great game day atmosphere, the Penn State fans were great overall. The people around us were fun, knowledgeable and welcoming. The overwhelming impression was that Penn State fans and alums are just incredibly enthusiastic and normal. They also can’t stand James Franklin who is clearly the worst big game coach in history. (Small Game James)
Aside from the amount of TV timeouts, which was absolutely insufferable (the drive at the end of the 3rd Q/start of 4th Q had 9 minutes of TV timeouts for one series), we could not understand the play calling to run the ball moderately successfully over and over and over in the 2nd half. Completely understand the desire to run the clock and grind it out but taking the ball completely out of JJ’s hands really didn’t make a lot of sense when it seemed we had some success when trying to throw the ball up to that point.
Then, early this morning I had a thought and I’ll share my theory, please feel free to share yours—wrong answers are welcome as always. My theory is that they wanted Harbaugh to have the opportunity to be on the sidelines when JJ passes him in all time passing yards. I didn’t think it was plausible but seeing Moore’s postgame interview, yeah, I think he’s that crazy and would do something like that while also showing the world we can dominate in any strange fashion we want to and shining light on the run game and offensive line.
Am I crazy? My traveling partners think I am, I think they’re ignorant fools.
November 12th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
JJ WAS GETTING LIT UP ON ANY DROPBACK WATCH THE GAME
November 12th, 2023 at 7:36 AM ^
Seems like a stretch. I was thinking ball security, minimizing turnover risk, and running out the clock were the main reasons. Also they couldn't really stop us. If we were playing catch up then I'm sure we would have passed it more.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:37 AM ^
Barnhart got smoked on speed rushes repeatedly, so they had to go to sprint-outs and waggles to give JJ time, and Penn State was covering those too. So passing posed a high risk of getting off schedule or turning the ball over. Staying on the ground, grinding out 3.5 YPC, and playing defense was the right strategy.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
Yeah Barnhart had a rough go. We had no answer for Robinson
November 12th, 2023 at 7:54 AM ^
I thought that the beginning of the game was rough for him, but I pretty sure that he got a lot better as the game went on—and I believe I even saw him making some extremely crucial blocks. I’ll wait for the UFR before passing final judgment though.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
They didn't do any straight dropkick passing after those 1st 2 drives when Barnhart got smoked 3 times. Chop was getting to jj before he finished his drop.
November 12th, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
Not really. We tried to scheme to give him some help, or directed plays away from his side. Then just started running, and it worked.
The end.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:48 AM ^
As much as it sucked, PSU Iowa'd that game so hard Ferentz will have a wet dream watching the iPhone videos later tonight. They ran the ball hard and relied on the defense for field position. You nailed it, EGD, Janklin had his team ready to play an Iowa RockFight game and they ran it beautifully.
The problem with his strategy? Only one team in the B1G is happy to play Iowa's game and can consistently out-Iowa Iowa:
Michigan
I wish PSU would have run that game against OSU instead of trying to match them pass for pass. I'm not convinced they wouldn't have won...
November 12th, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^
Yep. They almost did. That pick six was called back. OSU did not have the horses to do what we did yesterday even though their run game seems to have improved.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
Surprised Hinton didn’t get more run at tackle since Barnhart was struggling so much. He really is a guard at the tackle spot and maybe he is nicked enough to limit his agility; regardless, he was a liability in pass protection against an outstanding DE.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:10 AM ^
I don't know if they would make that change two weeks before OSU game. Thank God they don't have a player like Robinson. JTT is OK but he is not Robinson. There is a possibility for a change for the playoff if we get there.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
But JJ was 7/8 for 60 yards and an auto 1st down DPI. It’s not like he was 1/8 for 5 yards. The only possible reasons are he was hurt, they were playing Lloyd ball or he was getting hit even as the passes were being completed and didn’t want him injured further.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:38 AM ^
That would imply JJ, or Jim, or the program, is driven by pursuit of individual goals and records. That seems to be the furthest thing from what this team is about. So I would say no, no, a thousand times no!
November 12th, 2023 at 7:48 AM ^
I’d say the motivation to win in a totally outlandish manner that displays their utter dominance was just as important. This was pretty extreme. It says “team” to me. I don’t think anyone, most importantly JJ would attribute his career passing totals to himself. I’d argue he would put all the credit for those yards on his teammates over the years.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
Are you STILL drinking?
November 12th, 2023 at 7:38 AM ^
I think you are being overly imaginative.
The coaches wanted to win. PSU thought they could win by taking away the pass. JJ had little time.
PSU could not stop the run. We kept running.
We also gave away nothing in the playbook for OSU to learn.
Hopefully JJ's ankle has nothing to do with it. He seemed to be running around ok after the game.
I don't care how we best OSU ... Just that we do. Again. Please.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:50 AM ^
If you saw him run off the field after his interviews you’d have no concerns about his ankle. He bounced off the field from the 50 yard line, past all the fans who had worked their way down in the end zone to cheer him on like a gazelle. He barely touched the ground while waving and hyping up the crowd. He’s fine.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:20 AM ^
Hopefully JJ is fine, but hard to judge in the moment. Adrenalin can do wonders. I think Grant Newsome walked off the field and then subsequently spent a long time in the hospital almost losing his leg.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
Very different scenarios. Grant had a vascular injury, which you can identify pretty quickly with a good exam and ultrasound in the moment. If something was missed to this extent on JJ, he'd be in the hospital by now. Ankle injuries are very rarely limb threatening (its basically has to be an open fracture). Based on the inward deviation of his ankle, it is a sprain. It didn't look like a significant deviation, so probably low-grade.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
Pretty bad misread on your part.
My point, which I clearly stated, was that a person's actions in the moments following an injury are not necessarily indicative of how bad the injury might be. Newsome is a dramatic illustration of that point.
That is, you can't rely on
If you saw him run off the field after his interviews...
To make reliable assessment of if you should
... Have no concerns about his ankle
The is a lot of room between being hospitalized for an injury and having absolutely nothing to worry about.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:40 AM ^
Bad take.
I still think it’s too much to ask 1 guy to coach the OL, and call plays, AND be Head Coach.
Hopefully we don’t need to worry about it the rest of the year.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:52 AM ^
Agree completely with the coaching responsibilities, they need to come up with a long term solution if JH is going to have to serve the entire suspension. This worked for the short term but it’s not ideal.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
I think this is correct. Moore is a great OC/line coach and will someday be a great coach. But taking on all 3 is a lot. Ask cryin Ryan who only has 2 jobs and master of none. I still say that having Jay fill in would be the way to go, but what the hell do I know.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:01 AM ^
Completely agree. I will die on my take that Hart or Jay needs to be the acting HC going forward if needed. That's not a knock on Moore or Minter, they just have the biggest jobs (especially Moore having the OL) and need to focus.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^
Another alternative is to have Hart or Campbell call plays. Campbell did so, I believe, when Moore was acting HC against BG.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:41 AM ^
Their offense couldn’t do anything. The only way we were going to lose the game was if we gave them chances via turnovers. The idea was to keep the clock running… deny them extra opportunities in our end… let our defense do what it does.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:41 AM ^
My logic is Sheron knows how well the run game works against defenses like PSU. He also knows we only need ~20 points to win. If we throw three outcomes are likely.
1. We will score another touchdown or two. Maybe more than we actually need.
2. More time will be left and the game extends.
3. More likelihood for injuries.
Their defensive ends are insanely fast. Our Oline is better at the ground game than protection against PSU. JJ was hobbled a little. We have two, maybe three excellent back, only one Heisman QB. Get 19 or 20 and you know all PSU can do to get back in the game is to run. So let us double down on draining the clock together. Or force them to attempt to pass. We almost had 2 late INTs on Allar. He was very, very bad late. If we even throw one INT due to an aggressive pass rush, it may have changed the outcome (see their fumble and/or their turnover on downs)...
November 12th, 2023 at 7:50 AM ^
Speaking of Allar’s fumble…
Rayshaun Benny!
November 12th, 2023 at 7:59 AM ^
.
Yeah this is the reasoned take and likely the truth. If that’s the case, the discipline shown to adhere to the gameplan was extraordinary.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:00 AM ^
Right. And here’s another thing. If you run the ball on first and second down, chances are you pick up enough yards to give yourself a chance to convert with another run on third down (or g for it on fourth). But if you throw an incompletion on first or second, now you’re looking at probably needing to throw again to pick up the first. So while a turnover would have been devastating, even an incompletion would have been very damaging the way that game was going.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
Sounds like Woody, "only three things can happen when you pass, and two of them are bad."
November 12th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
Yeah. I am normally all for balanced offense and stretching defenses every which way. But that was a Bo & Woody kind of game yesterday.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:41 AM ^
I don’t hate that theory but I suspect that not-seen-before 7 lineman package is a major clue. Its clear, based on comments that said package was in the garage all year waiting for the right team, that the coaches were aware of PSUs pass rush and know a good run game neutralizes a great pass rush (PSU had 38 sacks coming into the game). If we had to pass to win I am sure we would have opened things up but I think it was as simple as we are ahead and we can get to the finish with the run. Its seems very simple but it was a coaching masterclass.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:56 AM ^
The seven linemen package is a great way to handle PSU's defensive ends that we couldn't block. Do we know if Trente Jones can catch?
November 12th, 2023 at 7:58 AM ^
That is a great point! That 7-OL ultra-heavy package wasn't first tried in the game - it's been there all year and was probably a primary focus during practices last week. It worked flawlessly, and that doesn't happen if its not practiced. I hadn't thought of that before, but boy does it seem obvious now!
I've said it a dozen times since yesterday afternoon, and I'll say it again now: the only team in the B1G that can out-Iowa Iowa, is Michigan. You want to play a rockfight using the run game and a stout defense? Okay, bring it. That's Michigan's entire DNA...
November 12th, 2023 at 7:44 AM ^
I think the staff saw PSU tendencies (before and during the game) we the average fans do not see that they felt confident would result in a win. Not a pretty win, but a win. If PSU changed tack, then we would have.
Also, I think it was fairly obvious the staff had everything on their in-game plate they could handle without Coach Harbaugh at the helm. They did amazingly well on short notice. But times they struggled to get plays calls in, used timeouts at less then opportune times, etc. Me thinks considering when records were likely to be broken would not have been on the radar.
Such a satisfying win, not just because it was a win, but because of how well the coaches and players competed and represented Michigan.
Go Blue.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:45 AM ^
Connor Stalions telepathically told him to keep calling run plays.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:00 AM ^
The more I question why. There was absolutely zero need to blatantly do what was done. Rutgers just got blanked by Iowa, MSU is horrid, Purdue has a new coach...
This scandal, and in particular the way it went about, has got to be the most boneheaded way to distract a team.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
You're crazy. : )
But hey, is Sherrone our next head coach? Hopefully in ten years.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
I mean, it is crazy to see that they ran from the middle of the 2nd quarter on, against a really good defense, and dominated the way they did.
But I think it was because it was working, eating up clock, and Penn State was doing nothing offensively so a pick and return or sack fumble was they only way to get them back in the game.
I think a pleasant side effect is that nothing flashy/new/tape-worthy for Ohio State was needed.
The crazy part to me was that there were threads and comments before the game where I recall some debates on "our running game has not been good, that spells trouble" vs. "we have a Heisman-caliber QB, get over it, pass to open the run"...and then the game plays out the way it did.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
I too was at the game. The atmosphere was surreal. PSU has a legit home field advantage. Even sitting way up in the bleachers, it was LOUD.
My theory is that we lose the game throwing the ball. Several times we were stuck by the student section which was loud. Any mistake there would have been costly.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:01 AM ^
With our Heisman candidate, surefire 1st rd QB? Way to show confidence in the kid!
November 12th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
100+ decibels is a force to be reckoned with at peak performance moments. I have been going to Michigan games in Happy Valley for a long time and have seen several false starts in close games while the crowd is still engaged. The team looked pretty darn disciplined out there yesterday.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
OP, I respectfully disagree on Penn State fans. Judging by the people who've showed up at Michigan games with PSU gear, they're below the mean on the meathead scale (but not as bad as MSU and OSU). Apologies to the civilized alums who frequent this board.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:05 AM ^
I will disagree with you. My experience in Happy Valley for the 1997 demolition was A+. The fans there - before and after the game, on the CGD set, tailgating, in the campus bars, walking around the campus, all of it - were fantastic! They knew the game, they knew the situation around the country re: who's doing what football wise, and were very complimentary. To be sure, there are assholes in every crowd (ours included), but I didn't see many that weekend...
November 12th, 2023 at 7:47 AM ^
As others have pointed out, the priority is to win the game. I hadn't really thought about protecting JJ until others pointed it out, but the last thing the team needs is an injured JJ. I agree with you on the TV timeouts when watching a game live. It's especially bad when you're at a game by yourself.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:47 AM ^
one upvote here for crazy
They did call a pass on the 3rd down deep in our end that was foiled by the time out as the play clock ran down, and the PI call. Should have been more, methinks, but I am an ignorant fool.
JJ got sacked on the each of the first 2 series, looked like Edwards, then Corum, should have stayed to block Robinson. Sherrone decided he could not rely on the pass blocking and the run was working.
Every play call was to win the game.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
Also a pass play call on the field goal drive. 2nd and whatever, they rolled JJ to the right. Three receivers were running a pattern to that side, all well covered. JJ used his legs to get first and goal.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:49 AM ^
My theory is that, like Forrest Gump, they just felt like running.