SOS update: Michigan has faced #2, #3, #4 & #8 ranked defenses according to SP+

Submitted by evenyoubrutus on December 3rd, 2023 at 5:04 PM

Alabama is ranked #9, meaning it's the fifth best defense we'll have played this year.

Also notable - Maryland at #20 and Rutger at #22

Amazinblu

December 3rd, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^

IIRC, Brian Kelly noted that he “needed players like those” (that were on Bama’s lines).   

Kelly pursued an approach to increase the size of his lines with his recruiting strategy.

It seems to me that Michigan’s staff has recruited well, and Herbert (with the S&C staff) have helped those young men develop - both technique and S&C - to be competitive at this level - as well as prepare them for a potential future in the NFL.

Again, not discrediting Bama.  But, Michigan has a solid team.

WayOfTheRoad

December 3rd, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^

It shows how skewed this list is. OSU has a good but not great defense. PSU has a good, not great defense (slightly better than OSU due to pass rush, IMO). Iowa is a good defense as a unit more than individually, they're exploitable with athletes on the outside. Nebraska is a decent defense.

Mostly, they and Michigan are aided by being in a mostly trash B1G. Fact. 

Bama is full of roided-up 5* players coached by maybe the best CFB coach ever. If you can't bully Iowa, you won't bully Bama. The athleticism gap we had on Iowa is true for Bama compared to us when we're on offense.

If Michigan wants any hope to win this game they have to come out on offense with radically different wrinkles than we've seen all year. They have about 3 weeks to fully weaponize Edwards as a pass catcher, get the OL in order and scheme up ways to exploit Bama from the TE position and more. 

On defense Michigan has to get Milroe off balance with 3-4 and keep a spy on him for when he will take off. That's his default state. He's a massive RB playing QB except he's not an atrocious passer. Not elite but not awful. 

 

They're definitely beatable but the way you don't win is by bunching up and insisting that you can bash them to death. You won't. You weaken their box by showing them that you can and will throw the ball. When Bama backs off their DL is subject to taking wrong steps, overrunning even power runs and not shedding blocks. You just will not come out in power and dictate the game. It'll look a lot like 2021 UGA if you do and this Bama defense is not 2021 UGA. 

You can win but not if you treat them like a B1G team you can outlast with middling power runs and a lot of 3rd down out routes. They'll house those all day if UM doesn't change a thing.

umfan83

December 3rd, 2023 at 8:44 PM ^

I agree with a lot of this.  I can understand the desire to look at this game and say “we’re the number 1 team we need to make them play our game”, but I’d rather catch them off guard by opening it up a bit and utilizing more play action and Edwards routes either out of the backfield or in motion. 
 

I think if we go in there assuming that our style of ball is going to work against a team that talented we might be in trouble. Hopefully Harbaugh and the coaches and players remember what happened when we tried that against Georgia

UMForLife

December 3rd, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^

I was trying to lookup Alabama opponents' rankings but can't seem to find sp+ ranking. Is it behind a paywall? 

Anyway, just wanted to see how it looks for Bama, Texas, Washington, FSU and Georgia. Does Bill adjust for ineffective offenses?

brad

December 3rd, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^

This definitely puts some data to my gut feeling that Michigan can move the ball up and down the field against this Alabama defense.  We will need a dynamic game plan, but the distinct possibility exists for M to put 35 on Alabama and play keep away at the same time.

1VaBlue1

December 3rd, 2023 at 5:58 PM ^

This flies in the face of what I just heard from ESPN.  They were saying that Michigan will lose the physical battle on the lines, and that the skill players for Michigan aren't as good as those from Bama.  They also said that Milroe will be a new QB that UM hasn't seen because he can run.  They said nothing about JJ's ability to run.

Michigan is quite an underdog, apparently.

MaizeBlueA2

December 3rd, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^

How does it account for the fact that many of the offenses in the B1G are terrible?

Honest question. 

The 50th ranked defense would've shut out that Iowa team last night. All they did was help our stats.