Snowflake: an optimistic theory of the AD's strategy
WARNING ⚠️⚠️⚠️ SNOWFLAKE POST
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Pretend inferiority and encourage arrogance
-Sun Tzu
Do not trust a hope, it has forsaken these lands
-Eomer
I know that we have been conditioned to think that, until proven otherwise, the athletic department is doing the very worst thing possible to improve things. However, I believe that there is a chance that what we are seeing here is a master chess move by Warde.
Think about it: let's say that Harbaugh has already told Warde he intends to resign and move on after the season. That means that Warde needs to be working behind the scenes to find another coach. By telling the media that they won't be discussing a contract until after the season, that gives him a distinct advantage in pursuing, say, a Matt Campbell or a Luke Fickell. He can do it under the radar, without suspicion from other ADs, or flight tracking bloggers.
While leaks are all over the media that Texas is out there going after a new coach like Urban Meyer, Michigan appears to be sitting in a holding position doing nothing. And the media is not constantly asking about Harbaugh's future.
I know we have been hurt in the past by arrogant incompetence from athletic directors, sipping daiquiris on their yacht while out of cell range, or designing killer Facebook ad campaigns and Coca-Cola partnerships to build a Brand with a capital "B". But there is reason to hope.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^
I don’t get your logic. Michigan is a marquee program with tons of money. Granted, it has underperformed . But any competitive coach thinks he can fix anything. And M still carries more status than most. Also you’re harboring the illusion that M mistreats coaches relative to other top programs. If anything, M gives coaches a longer leash. Both Hoke and Harbaugh would have been canned much earlier if they were in another top conference. And Warde is not a meddler. It’s actually a great opportunity for the lion’s share of coaches.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:36 AM ^
People on this board constantly can way too hot and bothered because Warde doesn't personally send them emails with his latest plans or that Harbaugh doesn't go to pressers and blast all of his underperforming staff and players. Some of these people work in leadership positions too so they should know how these types of things work and don't work. Just because you aren't being updated doesn't mean nothing is happening
December 9th, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
Could you please tell me what you really mean by this statement? Now!
December 9th, 2020 at 9:50 AM ^
There is a theory floating around that Warde is addicted to quaaludes and he stays up at night staring at the ceiling until all of the moves are seen within the AD. Warde has this all figured out.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^
Do you honestly think people on this board won't be flight tracking?
December 9th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
With zoom, there is no longer a need to do so.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:04 AM ^
Your last paragraph was outstanding, but I think Martin had a sailboat.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
I agree and shared these exact sentiments yesterday in a couple threads. More evidence that I think this is accurate is that the new coach is already picked and agreement in place meaning only Warde, agent, and coach are only ones who have to keep it secret so no leaks which is doable. Further, Warde knows M fans will approve and all will be forgiven.
I just can’t imagine he would be stupid enough to blow up a recruiting class and wait to plan something. I’m convincing myself he’s a genius many steps ahead of us rather than another idiot AD. He’s likely seen the writing on the wall for weeks and Harbaugh too.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
Urban Meyer here we come!
December 9th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
This could only mean Urban Meyer, if you say that M fans will approve and all will be forgiven.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
Not that it seems like a real possibility, but there is a significant chunk of fans that don't want to see Urban here. Me included. Sure he would likely bring wins, but also brings a lot of baggage.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:27 PM ^
Matt Campbell. If you’re not on board yet, you haven’t read or looked into him or know ISU history enough.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
Warde has done exactly what he should do and that is offer an extension that shows they are clearly not happy with the direction of the program, reduce salary and buyout, (re)define the goals of the program (expectations/incentives) and allow for a respected alum to make a decision that will allow them to save face if they move on. Anyone that works in the business world understands this strategy. Warde didn't hire Harbaugh but defining what he expects from him if he stays.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:12 AM ^
I'm fine with that. But he pooh-poohed that. He said 'We'll talk after the season'. We don't even know WHEN the season is over. He's basically let recruits, assistants, and the current players hang. That is a crappy way to run a business.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
Eh, if he doesn't pooh-pooh it it becomes a media storm. I do hope he's pressing on a faster timeline for Harbaugh, though, due to recruiting timeline.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
They offered the extension - and arguably let it leak - there is nothing to discuss. As insiders have stated the ball in in Harbaugh's court. If they are waiting till after the season (whenever that is) that is because Harbaugh has told them he isn't deciding until then.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
Then it should have included a "we need to know your decision date", which for me would have been this Friday. Then you can announce it and get moving in whatever direction has been decided. The way this is coming across is, Warde is trying to look out for the best interest of Harbaugh, when he should be focused on the best interest of the program. You can't do both.
December 9th, 2020 at 3:54 PM ^
I get what people want but in the real world this isn't how it happens. You don't offer someone an extension and then say you have less than a week to accept it - with a year remaining on the existing contract and this close to the end of the season. Some of the NFL jobs that Harbaugh may be interested in are not even open yet.
Who's to say Warde can't be focused on both? What you are saying is that he should be focused on what you want.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:10 AM ^
It's like an Advent calendar of fresh speculation!
December 9th, 2020 at 10:38 AM ^
But will we have gifts or coal on Christmas?
December 9th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
I think you know the answer to that question. This is michigan fergodsakes.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
I’ll also take this snowflake optimism theory and raise it... What if this past season/COVID turns out to be the best thing possible for M football?
1. Record makes it easy to part ways with Harbaugh
2. Recruiting class damage less damaging due to this years eligibility rules and many/most players coming back and determined to win
3. M arrogance finally realized and dealt with by new coach outside of Bo tree
4. New recruiting strategy based on selling recruits on NFL career instead of Michigan man and school
5. Desperate need for change and all hands on deck mentality (like Howard)
6. Every ounce of complacency, entitlement, and Bo days gone for good, complete program reset
I gotta believe Warde sees how this program lives in the past because he was part of the past and watched us struggle previous to coming here. He has to know that if Harbs couldn’t do it the old way, NO ONE can hence starting from scratch. The truth will set you free and M football has needed to look in the mirror for many years.
I’m convinced the mirror has finally been seen even by Harbaugh which is why he will be leaving willingly too... for the good of the program.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
number 3. if you want to take issue with the fight song of "Leaders" and "best", thats is an inherent pre existing form of arrogance, yes... but outside of that, our fanbase is different than no others... stop listening to sparty's sour grapes.
number 4. Jim has sold recruits on NFL career... has put 65% of them so far, in the NFL... moved guys like Gentry to TE, so he would HAVE a NFL career. So give Jim credit he deserves.
number 6. players bust their ass, they don't feel entitled at all, and have massive pressure on them to win...we just aren't getting it done and falling short with a gimmick D.
You mentioned in earlier post that Warde already has a coach picked that will be approved by M fans. Care to reveal who you think it is ?
December 9th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
I feel like the only reason Warde would do this is because A: he feels an obligation toward another alumni or B: he just likes Harbaugh and is helping him save face. Other than that, I don't see how doing what he's doing improves the situation for either the coaching search or the recruiting trail. If Harbaugh is staying, he'd tell everyone. If he's leaving, I think its better to rip the band aid off and start the nation wide search early for recruits. In any case, for Michigan's sake I hope Warde does indeed have a master plan or somehow Forest Gumps us into a good situation for the future. Either way, GO BLUE!
December 9th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
If people like Fickell were being contacted, it wouldn't be a secret. Once three people know something's happened, the cat's out of the bag. Except of course the Deep State. Where millions of physicians (myself), scientists, and USG workers (myself) are all in a giant conspiracy to bring down Trump that we're managing to keep secret.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
This day and age of secure communications, and its quite easy to have it become completely quiet. But often the beans are spilled indirectly from family or spouses.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:27 AM ^
I am pretty sure that the first quote is actually attributed to Lou Holtz, circa 1988.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
well, its seems to be something that suggests there's more to this than meets the eye... i think that there is a window to try allowing for Harbaugh to move on, not unlike what he tried to do for Pep Hamilton...
However, the question is what happens if he doesn't get an NFL call?
Does he walk away from this extension offer? Does Michigan pull the offer? Or is this a legit offer both are happy to consumate?
I sure hope that Warde has been doing some backchannel communication, as you would look like morons if Harbaugh walked AND you can't get a guy like Campbell, but are stuck with a guy that, while be a good coach, doesn't move the needle.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
If its true that the Chargers are looking for a new coach, then Harbaugh going to California might be in the cards... Herbert is a star. They have a good D... and I imagine they miss California weather, too.. Hoke did...
December 9th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
He’s under contract for next season, so he could refuse the offer and see what’s out there for him in 2021
December 9th, 2020 at 12:26 PM ^
That is the least likely outcome. If they do not come to terms on an extension, then Harbaugh will be dismissed. Won't be given the opportunity to play out the last year of the contract.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:45 AM ^
This is easy...nobody who thinks highly of themself will take an extension that pays them significantly less than they’re making now. This is an offer Harbaugh will refuse. He thinks he is worth more and will take a contract somewhere else that will pay him similar to what he’s getting now.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
I fail to grasp why it is so hard to understand for some to understand what Warde is doing here.
Announce no extension for Harbaugh now with no successor named >>>> recruits leave
Announce no extension for Harbaugh with middling successor named (given that good successor is likely in the middle of their season) >>>> recruits leave
Say nothing will be done until after season >>>> some recruits might leave (likely the same ones already kicking the tires due to our bad performance) but many stay to see what happens
Two scenarios seem unlikely to me:
1. Announce no extension and simultaneously announce a major hire. I suppose this could protect the class but even that isn't guranteed. I just fail to see how the gears can possibly turn that quickly and don't know who that "major hire" could be.
2. Announce no discussion until after the season yet retain Harbaugh. This seems unlikely to me because why not just announce it now?
I do enjoy watching a man running a $100m organization (with substantial success, mind you) be second guessed by a bunch of people on a blog that couldn't organize a two car funeral procession but I digress.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
I'm having a hard time following what you're getting at. I'm not saying you're wrong but you start by saying it's so obvious what he's doing but then I don't see where you address what yoy think he's actually doing.
And to be fair, the last two athletic directors (not including Hackett) were transparently unprepared to manage a coaching change. Nobody here is saying they could run the AD better than Warde, but it's easy to see the consequences of him not handling this appropriately.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
I think you have to give Warde the benefit of the doubt given the Pearson and Howard hires and the Bakich retention. I applaud what Hackett did but I almost discount him because he was only there for a year and had essentially one major decision to make during that time and did it well. He did not have to think about long term institutional needs (though he clearly is the type of gentleman that would do so instinctively).
I personally don't see a scenario in which Harbaugh is coming back because, if he were, I don't know why you assume the risk of losing recruits by announcing it later. I could be wrong but that is my hunch. If I am correct, then I think he is handling this quite smoothly. If I am incorrect and Harbaugh comes back and and a few recruits leave for brighter pastures, it will be hard to pin that on this issue or just a shitty season but my view will be that it was mishandled.
I think Warde was probably putting a lot of stock on the OSU game. If Michigan were to somehow have won that game, it would have engendered enough good will to probably keep Harbaugh. If OSU won as expected, and it was a blowout, I think there would have been a natural parting of ways not long thereafter.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:27 PM ^
Okay that's what I thought you were saying.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
Remember, however, that it is 2020 so I will almost assuredly be mistaken and we will announce a Harbaugh extension on December 21st followed by his firing on March 13th and eventual re-hire of Brady Hoke.
December 9th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
You are probably more or less correct.
But... the 'announce nothing now but still end up retaining JH' course could still make some sense.
If Warde thinks it makes sense to give JH a second shot, but only under a low-risk deal, then it could make sense to give JH until a few days after the 19th accept or decline.
It is not so black and white as Warde wants to retain or get rid of JH. Not so binary and pre-determined. Could be a contingent analysis.
IF JH is willing to accept a low-risk deal, THEN Warde wants to extend him.
But IF JH insists on the same deal he has, THEN Warde wants to replace him.
On this scenario it could be that what Warde said in the press conference is not a cover for some other course of action--he will give JH until a bit after the 19th to figure out whether he wants to accept the deal recently put on the table.
Assume Warde thinks as follows:
1. O.k., JH had success at Stanford and 49ers, and pretty decent results at Michigan pre-2020 Yet he has certain now-evident flaws that played a roll in Michigan falling short against OSU, no BTCCG, etc.
2. The results were a bit disappointing in 2017-2019. And now in 2020 the wheels fell off. No way I can extend JH on the terms of his existing contract. 'You just lost to IU and a bad MSU team, so here are 5 more years at $7 million per' does not fly.
3. Still......even if I get the guy at the top of my 'replace JH' list, it is still a crapshoot. Always is. Look at Texas. Look at ND after Holtz. Look at Bama before Saban. Hell, look at Michigan with RRod (the hot candidate at the time). And Kelly did turn things around at ND after some mediocre results and one very bad year.
4. Conclusion: As bad as 2020 looks, JH did not have a firable record before this season, so.... still willing to roll with JH, warts and all, but only on very different terms--three years, lower base, incentives, lower buyout, change staff, etc..
5. If he takes that, then a second chance makes sense, especially given that any replacement is a crapshoot.
6. If he won't take that, then I cannot keep paying him $7 million per for mediocre and downward trend results, and it makes sense to give Campbell or [fill in the blank] a try.
If this is the way Warde sees things, then the delay may just be Warde giving JH a bit of time to process whether he can take that kind of extension.
Bacon reported that Warde put a deal on the table, and that the ball is now in JH's court. Seems that this offer is very recent.
If Warde actually leans toward keeping JH under the low-risk contract on the table, he has to give JH time to think about it.
An exploding offer with a short fuse makes sense only if Warde wants him gone no matter the terms of the extension.
December 9th, 2020 at 5:38 PM ^
The cogent, reasoned analysis of what must be an LS&A grad.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:14 PM ^
I have a different totally made up dream/delusion/hallucination about how Warde might be a genius:
He is trying to move on from Harbaugh without firing him.
Warde is in a no win situation. If he fires Harbaugh, half of the power elite within the Michigan football universe will be pissed and undermine him (and his next hire). If he doesn't fire Harbaugh, the other half will be pissed and work to undermine him. Whatever he does, a fracture is likely to occur that will put the football program on an even shakier foundation.The fan split might be less even, but there will be angry fans no matter what he does as well.
The strategy to avoid this could be to get Harbaugh to leave on his own by putting forward an offer that Harbaugh will not accept. That way Warde can move on from Harbaugh without being "the guy that fired Jim Harbaugh." He has to walk a fine line. The offer can't be an insult or it will be seen as the same as firing, but it needs to be hard for Harbaugh to accept. The rumors of a significant cut in base pay, low or no buyout and incentive laden deal conform to the idea of an extension with a very short rope that might be reasonable, but hard to swallow.
Perhaps the reason for slow-peddling this strategy is to give Harbaugh and the rest of the world enough of a hint so that other options emerge for Harbaugh. Having other options would make it much easier for Harbaugh to not accept an extension with a short rope. If Warde really wants to move on from Harbaugh, the recruiting hit will happen no matter when in December he makes the move, so there is no marginal difference in delaying.
Is this what's happening? Who knows?
December 9th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^
In the alternative, slow pedal could be that whether Warde wants JH to stay or be replaced turns largely on the type of deal JH is willing to accept.
Warde does not want to keep JH if it means extending him at $7 million per with high buyout (similar to current contract) .
Warde wants to keep JH (give him a chance to coach as he did in '15-'16) so long as JH will accept an extension with lower base, lower buyout, etc.
Just recently put that low base/low buyout extension on the table and cannot demand JH decide in just one week, or while JH is focusing on game prep, etc.
December 9th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^
One of two scenarios will occur:
1. Manuel gives Harbaugh time to consider his options; Harbaugh doesn't decide until after Early Signing Period that he's staying; 2021 recruiting class suffers major losses
2. Manuel and Harbaugh don't get down to discuss things until after season is done and Early Signing Period is over; Harbaugh accepts NFL offer; Manuel decides he better start finding a new coach; 2021 recruiting class suffers major losses.
December 9th, 2020 at 2:57 PM ^
I find it difficult to believe that reaching out to other candidates could be kept completely under wraps. I think the likelier scenario is misplaced dogma and/or buying time publicly to finish the deal privately. Warde does not want anything announced until the terms are final.
December 9th, 2020 at 4:31 PM ^
Question: If this is true, how come we are hearing nothing from recruits at another school (Iowa State, Cinci, ect) wavering on their commitments?
December 9th, 2020 at 6:05 PM ^
December 9th, 2020 at 7:51 PM ^
To all the mis-forgotten toys on here: maybe .... just maybe WM has a strategy working right now that could land multiple planes at one time - which becomes everything fans want done. And maybe .... just maybe .... he needs a cone of silence to maneuver a landing none of us expected.