Snowflake: an optimistic theory of the AD's strategy
WARNING ⚠️⚠️⚠️ SNOWFLAKE POST
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Pretend inferiority and encourage arrogance
-Sun Tzu
Do not trust a hope, it has forsaken these lands
-Eomer
I know that we have been conditioned to think that, until proven otherwise, the athletic department is doing the very worst thing possible to improve things. However, I believe that there is a chance that what we are seeing here is a master chess move by Warde.
Think about it: let's say that Harbaugh has already told Warde he intends to resign and move on after the season. That means that Warde needs to be working behind the scenes to find another coach. By telling the media that they won't be discussing a contract until after the season, that gives him a distinct advantage in pursuing, say, a Matt Campbell or a Luke Fickell. He can do it under the radar, without suspicion from other ADs, or flight tracking bloggers.
While leaks are all over the media that Texas is out there going after a new coach like Urban Meyer, Michigan appears to be sitting in a holding position doing nothing. And the media is not constantly asking about Harbaugh's future.
I know we have been hurt in the past by arrogant incompetence from athletic directors, sipping daiquiris on their yacht while out of cell range, or designing killer Facebook ad campaigns and Coca-Cola partnerships to build a Brand with a capital "B". But there is reason to hope.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
Ridiculous. You salvage the recruits by saying I’m staying, not by creating a storm of uncertainty near signing day.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:14 AM ^
I should have clarified this reasoning in my OP, but I assumed it was self evident from everything else that is happening.
There is zero reason to hide the fact that he is being extended, if that is what has happened.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:12 AM ^
You are correct, unless he is gutting his staff and he doesn't want the constant questions about who is being retained. Stupid reason, but I could understand that reasoning.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:44 AM ^
How do you know they aren't negotiating today and haven't been negotiating for a while? Because they didn't officially disclose this in their press release? My bet would be they've been talking and Warde is trying to pause all the questions till after the season ends so Harbaugh & Co can focus on their jobs for now
December 9th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^
That's the OP's point. If you are, what is the harm is saying, "negotiations are ongoing, and we will tell you when we have a deal". This settles any recruiting questions.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:45 AM ^
What jobs? The season is effectively over.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
Seriously. As others have already said, there is absolutely no reason to keep it from the public, if he is for sure coming back. The only way this makes any sense to me at all, is that Harbaugh is out. Not what I've been advocating for, but we'll see how it goes.
No offense to OP, but it just doesn't make any sense.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:56 AM ^
EYB, Can you please share what is in your morning coffee? Also, where can we get some of that?
Kidding aside, it is not impossible what you are putting forth, but I think heavy skepticism is due.
It would be wonderful though to be extremely and pleasantly surprised by an announcement in the next couple of weeks.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:43 AM ^
As a lawyer, I'm sure you can appreciate the idea of making an argument for a point you don't necessarily believe in, but see as a possibility ?
And I take all my happy pills in the morning, so that's why my cynical takes are usually posted at night.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:36 AM ^
how are the kids, and how is the dexter duck farm going? any more climbing walls being built?
December 9th, 2020 at 9:45 AM ^
The kids are going out of their minds being home all day (as are we). The climbing wall is done, but haven't been able to hang it and put up the holds yet, so it's currently sitting in my yard killing my grass. Haha.
Sadly, the ducks have all passed through the pearly gates to that great pond in the sky. But now I've devoted all my time to grass husbandry (if that's even a thing) and making my lawn the best and greenest in the neighborhood.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:56 AM ^
let's see. home all day. kids home. wants activities. hmmm. how about you hang that climbing wall? and then send us pictures. great idea to build one and want to see it in action. would be a good starter to a 'sliver linings with shut down' thread.
sorry about the ducks passing into duck valhalla. it happens. it also impacts your grass husbandry in that duck scat can be a fine natural fertilizer. we let the chickens do all of our fertilizing on our grass. works out well.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
I'm no farmer or yard expert, but for all of the good the chicken poo does do the chickens not tear up the yard?
December 9th, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^
No... They don't scratch enough to damage things...
December 9th, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
It's for this type of insight I spend all of my time on this blog.
December 9th, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^
they do a natural de-thatching, and even though we have a boatload of chickens, we don't have a postage stamp of a lawn, so there's room to roam when they aren't in the pasture or out in the hay/corn fields.
December 9th, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^
You know it's funny, our next door neighbors actually just got a bunch of chickens, and my wife has become their de facto vet for the hens and their 3 cats on basically a pro bono/neighborly basis (because my wife is a saint and loves her job too much). But as payment we get eggs from them every week, and oh my I had no idea eggs could be that delicious.
I will definitely post some photos of the climbing wall once it's up. If it is OT season I'll put up its own thread. Thinking about doing a traversing wall in the basement so we have one for winter as well.
December 9th, 2020 at 6:20 PM ^
you show up to the farm with or without the family, and i guarantee you a 'care package' of various meats from the farm and of course eggs. ask the other mgobloggers that have been here, i'm batting 1000 with that promise.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:02 AM ^
It it certainly possible this is what Warde is attempting to do, get some cover from the media and move more covertly. It would certainly keep some heat off of a coaching search, and allow for both parties to get a deal done without getting grilled by two media markets.
I think the scenario everyone is most concerned about is: the '21 class falls apart due to uncertainty of Harbaugh's situation, and then after signing day Harbaugh signs an extension with a decimated recruiting class.
If that scenario bares out, I'm not even sure what Warde or the Athletic Department could say to fans to restore the faith this AD and football program has a clue about what it's doing.
Now I do anticipate this, what was once excellent, recruiting class is going to implode somewhat. If it implodes at the expense of bringing in a coach, well.. that sucks, but I think you can at least live with that as the cost of changing course.
If it implodes and we end up exactly where we started the year, and a bunch of self-inflicted wounds on the recruiting trail I'll be convinced the Michigan Arrogance is so palpable they would sink the program before getting out of their own way. Arrogance and incompetence is probably the most insufferable combination for any organization I can think of.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:31 AM ^
So you are completely discounting the process:
Warde probably has offered a contract as described.
Jim has yet to answer / counter.
Which — in season, during the week of the OSU game, with 45+ players and possible staff sick or quarantined — who has time to counter?
Jim can communicate one thing to recruits while the department does not to the public.
Meanwhile, if you are a recruit and you wander to mgoblog or any Wolverine media, everyone is calling for the head of the guy who is recruiting you, and have been for months.
This is all to say: I don’t think this situation makes it any worse really.
The only way you make it better is firing Jim Harbaugh after MSU, and hiring a home run replacement in the middle of a pandemic stricken season when every coach and player has made a solidarity commitment. Oh and then get permission for the new staff to recruit while the interim one finishes out the season.
(Which wasn’t going to happen.)
December 9th, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^
I wouldn't say I am discounting the process. I think from an outsiders perspective, it is impossible to know exactly what the process is at this point. What (we think) we know, is that Michigan has extended an offer to Jim. Warde has said, at least publicly, he and Jim will not discuss the offer until December 19th.
National early signing day is the 16th. So what we are being told, again at least publicly, is that there won't be an answer for the incoming recruiting class about who will be the head coach until days after you can sign your NLI.
What I am saying is if what this negotiation exercise bares out is that Jim accepts a contract extension on December 19th, 3 days after some players decide the uncertainty of the head coaching position is not worth signing an NLI over and head elsewhere, we have needlessly prolonged the negotiation and as a result, lost out on some critical talent that would have otherwise been in the fold to play at Michigan under pretty much the same circumstances they would have signed up for (with the exception of any position coach or coordinator changes).
To me, that would be a textbook example of arrogance leading to incompetence. Whether or not that, or something more strategic is at play is yet to be determined. A lot of unforeseen things can still happen from here.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:43 AM ^
I see what you’re saying, and agree this isn’t optimal if he’s staying.
I think part of this is the reality of 2020.
They aren’t going to discuss his contract because of optics.
The MSU disaster probably changed the dynamics a lot. (From extension at a similar balance of base and incentives, to a lower base and higher incentives and more money for assistant changes.)
December 9th, 2020 at 11:01 AM ^
I do agree, the MSU game is one that really was the straw on the camels back that started this entire mess. Come in and win that game, and the heat is off at least to some degree.
Losing a rivalry game to a team you have no business losing to at home (no fans obviously weakens that argument, but still..) really exacerbated the unraveling that was already taking place.
Had we not hit that fulcrum point that got the program to where it is now, this negotiation is much easier to work through.
I won't make excuses for Jim, because I think most of the challenges he's encountered at Michigan are self inflicted, but the timing intangibles for the program during his time here have been about the worst possible luck one could imagine.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
I'd agree about the MSU loss. I haven't watch any college football since that. I miss it, but I'm just done with ridiculous bullshit. Which is what's happening. That loss and situation with McCaffrey pushed me to the brink. As far as I'm concerned, they can just shut it all down until Harbaugh is gone and every "influential" booster who talks about a "Michigan Man" are dead and buried. I'm fairly convinced there is nothing else that's going to fix this busted ass program.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^
Besides the negotiation process besides Harbaugh and Warde, the other thing that could lead to a delayed extension announcement is that one, or both sides are looking at other options, but those options don't pan out. Harbaugh looking to jobs in the NFL, and Warde seeing if he thinks he can land one of his top candidates. If Warde looks around and finds Harbaugh is the best available candidate, he might extend him belatedly.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
1) Coaches routinely renew or renegotiate contracts in-season. Happens all the time. And the part about Jim not having an agent is a smokescreen. He has a lawyer. You don't need an agent.
2) The season is effectively over.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:04 AM ^
Just like the offense, the Michigan athletic department is lost in space.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:12 AM ^
Since Michigan sucks, any coach they would potentially hire is still in season with a lot to play for (Iowa State, Cincinnati) and of course they'd say they're focused on their team etc. Maybe you're on to something?
December 9th, 2020 at 8:13 AM ^
News from 31 Flavors....
Simone says that Harbaugh actually wants to bring in TOM BRADY as the QB coach, CHARLES WOODSON as the DB coach, and MIKE HART at the RB coach. So I guess it's pretty serious.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:41 AM ^
I always love idea of Charles Woodson trying to coach 3-4 star college kids. “Hey coach Woodson, how did you do it?” “Well I was a once in a generation talent so I just made the play.”
“thanks coach. We’ll try to figure it out I guess..”
December 9th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^
And Marcus Ray as DC.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:24 AM ^
If true, Warde is sly like fox, not dumb like rocks.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:25 AM ^
Do not be so quick to rule out total incompetence.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:32 AM ^
Huh?? Didn't literally every Michigan fan (myself included) assume it was utter incompetence yesterday? I'm just trying to present another side to consider.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:27 AM ^
I see that the Kraken has moved on to college football topics.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:27 AM ^
It's going to take a lot for me to believe Warde is playing 4D chess here. I appreciate the positivity and optimism though.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:32 AM ^
You guys give this regime way too much credit. They’re as clueless as the rest of us.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:34 AM ^
I thought this was going to be a post about Warde being a snowflake for pleading OSU’s case for the B1G Championship.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:02 AM ^
If they were running a shadow coaching search, it would be leaked immediately. Sometimes the obvious answer is right in front of us.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^
A forgotten detail of the Rodriguez hire is that Bill Martin and Mary Sue Coleman met with Rich Rodriguez and his lawyer in a hotel in Toledo where Rodriguez formally accepted the position. None of this was leaked to the media ahead of time. In fact nobody knew Rodriguez was even on their radar until he had accepted the position.
December 9th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
Stop letting facts get in the way of a good story.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:16 AM ^
Not if you are talking to guys that are currently coaching their teams and intend on doing that until bowl season? They don't want the constant questions about open jobs.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:20 AM ^
Thank you. That is yet another point I meant to convey in my OP.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:04 AM ^
Our AD has said time and time again that nothing happens until there's a vacancy. Sure there could be one behind the scenes, but the real answer is there is no way Harbaugh is gonna tell Warde by this point that he's moving on. He's probably been "preparing" for OSU since last week and isn't gonna entertain that kinda stuff. He's too single-track-minded which isn't a bad thing necessarily.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:08 AM ^
Uh, not sure where you get that the media isn't constantly speculating about Harbaugh's future. Quick google search turns up dozens of articles. And while I don't watch ESPN unless it's to actually watch a game, I suspect they're constantly talking about it there.
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December 9th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^
"But there is reason to hope."
I'm sorry, I appreciate the effort I do. But while this is a possibility; I'm just not seeing the signs that we have a deep game running here, with the AD and the athletic department running a master stroke. I'm just seeing... nothing. And in the past nothing, non movement, out of the athletic department has indicated incompetence, not masterful wisdom.
When they were open, aggressive, and clear, with Hackett, we had results and they looked good. Confidence was restored. Isengard was cleansed, if only for a time.
But now?
I hope I’m wrong. Whatever they do, whoever is the coach coming in (or staying) he’ll have my enthusiastic support; because I want Michigan to win. I just don’t see it though.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:20 AM ^
"I know that we have been conditioned to think that, until proven otherwise, the athletic department is doing the very worst thing possible to improve things.
The understatement of the century.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^
It's just crazy to think at this point that any (really good) coach would drop everything to run to Ann Arbor. Remember, it was not that long ago that Marti thought the same thing and found out otherwise.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:30 AM ^
This self loathing fear of abandonment by Michigan fans is a cut and dry clinical indication of a Borderline Personality Disorder.